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UK inflation... where will it go within 12 months? I suspect 6-8%


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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Jesus save us, it's down £2.00

I see you need to buy 2 to get free delivery.  That's a good hint.  Cheers.

free if you pick it up 

or just buy it off ebay 

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23 hours ago, Dorkins said:

If people are spending more on housing wouldn't that mean they have less to spend on other things i.e. HPI is actually deflationary for other prices? Also vice versa, if people are spending more on other things that leaves less to spend on housing.

Except that isn't how it works in the short term... white goods, refurbishment work, etc... whether borrowed cash or not. 

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10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Ten Houses is the Daddy!!

Gordon Brown's post-war record absolutely destroyed by the big spending Kenyan.

 

 

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/top-news-covid-spend-pushes-uk-government-deficit-to-worst-since-ww2-b591wajb4qakpva.html

(Alliance News) - The huge sums that the UK government has borrowed during the Covid-19 crisis have pushed the deficit to its widest since the end of the Second World War, according to new figures.

The Office for National Statistics said that public sector net borrowing “the government's deficit" reached GBP303.1 billion in the financial year to the end of March.

This was 14.5% of gross domestic product, the highest level since 1946, when the deficit hit 15.2% of GDP.

It is a rise from a deficit of GBP57 billion in the tax year that ended March 2020.

In the post-war era, the deficit peaked in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, hitting around 10% of GDP. The average deficit since 1970 has been 3.4% of GDP.

The last year's borrowing pushed public sector net debt up to GBP2.142 trillion, which is 97.7% of GDP the biggest proportion since the early 1960s.

Imagine how much worse the real situation is. The PFI, the unfunded liabilities, bloated welfare state, massive public sector, fake data including GDP, 30 years spent replacing real jobs with made up jobs, the climate spending burden nightmare (soon)   - compared that with the lean mean immediate post war economy. We are so fecked and they know it. 

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On 22/04/2021 at 11:05, PeanutButter said:

My grocery bill has gone up these last 6mo. I’m seeing some lower priced items disappear entirely. I can see them shifting things around for a bit though, claiming it’s lower.

Aldi & Asda are your friend.. Same price for 3 years.. 

 

Also can someone start a poll of guesstimating the inflation figure for this year will be, I think that will sum this argument up rather easily.. Then we can refer back to it in a year and say I told you so. 

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As a tradie, I can confirm big price rises and lack of stock in pretty much everything.

 

Lockdown, factories pausing coupled with a DIY boom meant that even landscaping products manufactured in the UK such as concrete fence posts and larchlap panels have been only sporadically in stock ever since. There was a run on cement before Easter (I bought the last pallet in the mertchants) but that seems to have been a blip and has settled down again.

The shipping companies acting as a cartel have quintupled the cost of shipping a container from China. There is very limited capacity currently, and the Suez thing just exaccerbated it. This means that low value items are running out of stock in the UK and it's difficult to say when they will be back or at what price. Stupid things like tape measures and saw blades- stuff you take for granted. Will the importers hold off, or pay the extortionate fees and increase the cost of the product? This effect will be most marked upon bulky cheap tat (less units per container) so expect to see no supply of things like Chinese plastic ride on toys this summer.

 

We have never been busier and it's the same for all trades I know. Everyone is doing up their house, everyone is fighting to get a tradesman and materials. I'm in a rich area, and it's like the pandemic never happened.

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38 minutes ago, bodgittandscarper said:

We have never been busier and it's the same for all trades I know. Everyone is doing up their house, everyone is fighting to get a tradesman and materials. I'm in a rich area, and it's like the pandemic never happened.

This has to feed into inflation sometime. Agree on the trades, can’t get a landscaper, and our leccy is booked up for months. 

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7 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

This has to feed into inflation sometime. Agree on the trades, can’t get a landscaper, and our leccy is booked up for months. 

Perhaps they can't afford to live in the area near you.....;)

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13 minutes ago, winkie said:

Perhaps they can't afford to live in the area near you.....;)

You’re not a Londoner are you. I’m 10min walk away from the highest density (and percentage) social housing in the country. :D 

 

Several people I know all over the place (including outside London in SE) have reported having trouble sourcing both tradesmen and household items. I’m not pulling this out my hat, it’s well reported. 

11 hours ago, Money Frugality said:

Aldi & Asda are your friend.. Same price for 3 years.. 

I tried Asda delivery several times but they sent me off meat (literally slimy and stinking) and fish that was due to expire the day after delivery. I’ve heard better things about Morrison’s.

Aldi don’t deliver. I hate shopping and the most of the process I can outsource the better. 

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2 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

I tried Asda delivery several times but they sent me off meat (literally slimy and stinking) and fish that was due to expire the day after delivery. I’ve heard better things about Morrison’s.

 

I use Asda delivery and they're very good. Not in London.

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43 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

You’re not a Londoner are you. I’m 10min walk away from the highest density (and percentage) social housing in the country. :D 

 

See below.;)

Edited by winkie
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3 minutes ago, winkie said:

North Londoner born and bred.....know it well and love it, born into it at the right time.....it is the people that make it, it is the system that has changed it.;)

 

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The reality is business and the government work together on the inflation rate.  Back room meetings happen.  The quality and size of products is reduced, bobs your uncle we arrive at the target number with their help and a few sympathetic statisticians.

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On 24/04/2021 at 10:26, satsuma said:

The reality is business and the government work together on the inflation rate.  Back room meetings happen.  The quality and size of products is reduced, bobs your uncle we arrive at the target number with their help and a few sympathetic statisticians.

This time I suspect the main tactic will be "this is only temporary"... until we hit 4% and it continues rising - that is when the government will move into panic mode. 

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20 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

This time I suspect the main tactic will be "this is only temporary"... until we hit 4% and it continues rising - that is when the government will move into panic mode. 

So I agree with this, but I think the part where it crosses 4% will be met with the usual spin.  Anything important is not reported by the media and more importantly anything important is not challenged.  The media were bought out years ago.  The usual mix of house price winners, political sleaze, men are bad and white men are worse bla bla will make the headlines.  I suppose people will be sold a pup as usual.  More programs about make do and mend and some good looking young couple doing green shifting to escape the cost of avocados in Waitrose.  The inflation and hard times are now inevitable, too much printy printy, shortage of goods due to Brexit and Covid.  

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Perhaps we have got too lazy and spoilt? expecting to get everything we want at the click of the figures......Avocado do not grow in the UK, anyway can at the moment buy four for one pound but not in waitrose......maybe they are bigger and better at waitrose? 

Change, adapt and innovate.....take nothing for granted.;)

 

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58 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

This time I suspect the main tactic will be "this is only temporary"... until we hit 4% and it continues rising - that is when the government will move into panic mode. 

Yes. The crystal ball is very fogged however.

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On 24/04/2021 at 08:44, PeanutButter said:

This has to feed into inflation sometime. Agree on the trades, can’t get a landscaper, and our leccy is booked up for months. 

Homeowners face long delays for kitchen and bathroom fitters

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/apr/25/homeowners-face-long-delays-for-kitchen-and-bathroom-fitters

Homeowners are waiting months longer than usual for bathrooms and kitchens to be installed as an industry-wide labour shortage that has been exacerbated by Brexit collides with the home improvement binge triggered by Covid-19 lockdowns.

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Homeowners face long delays for kitchen and bathroom fitters

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/apr/25/homeowners-face-long-delays-for-kitchen-and-bathroom-fitters

Homeowners are waiting months longer than usual for bathrooms and kitchens to be installed as an industry-wide labour shortage that has been exacerbated by Brexit collides with the home improvement binge triggered by Covid-19 lockdowns.

My usual plumber in rural Wales is booked up until August. There are perhaps 3 others to choose from. Heaven knows with them. On top of that they have increased prices by 20%.

 

Edited by gruffydd
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1 hour ago, gruffydd said:

My usual plumber in rural Wales is booked up until August. There are perhaps 3 others to choose from. Heaven knows with them. On top of that they have increased prices by 20%.

 

Gotta feed into the figures sometime, but how long can they keep it quashed.

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13 hours ago, gruffydd said:

My usual plumber in rural Wales is booked up until August. There are perhaps 3 others to choose from. Heaven knows with them. On top of that they have increased prices by 20%.

 

That is what you get when trades for years were looked down upon, kids told must go to university, the technical colleges were converted to universities and apprenticeships were for years discouraged, there is an excess of academic skills and degrees and not enough young people with practical qualifications...most of those with the skills required are now retired or retiring.;)

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13 hours ago, gruffydd said:

My usual plumber in rural Wales is booked up until August. There are perhaps 3 others to choose from. Heaven knows with them. On top of that they have increased prices by 20%.

 

Welcome to general life in the SE. Trades people have been making good money in London for many years. A bog standard rear extension costed at £80k for construction a few years back. I declined. 

Now Covid has screwed with supply chains and materials have jumped up in price too. 

On topic for house prices, if it just keeps getting more expensive to build extensions then people are going to keep bidding more for larger houses. 

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