Interesting Guardian editorial on the "Property Boom"

[Martin_JD]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/18/the-guardian-view-on-the-house-price-boom-the-asset-rich-get-richer

"Demand for homes is surging to levels not seen for at least a decade"

Looks like this crash some here have been heralding isn't coming any time soon, quite the opposite in fact, as a few of us on here predicted!

[LesDawson]

A whole generation screwed.

[Martin_JD]

Just now, LesDawson said:

A whole generation screwed.

Yup, pretty bad really.

[nothernsoul]

This really is the worst, in terms of pure reckless,cynicism from any government. New Labour were bad, but at least the financial crisis hadnt happened so there could be some kind of excuse for( politically convenient) ignorance. I understand governments operate in the real world, and a housing crash with repossessions isnt going to get anybody elected. But surely ultra low rates are more than enough? Billions spent on these other props is unprecedented and isn't going to end well. 

Something truly terrible has happened to Britain, when a houseprice correction has become a political impossibilty and the state underwriting mortgages and paying deposits is considered normal. 

[kzb]

1 hour ago, LesDawson said:

A whole generation screwed.

Not if they bought a year ago.  It's the New Boomer generation.

[longgone]

London and the se prices are roughly the same. 

I assume its everywhere else going up

[captainb]

15 minutes ago, longgone said:

London and the se prices are roughly the same. 

I assume its everywhere else going up

London still going up just not as fast.

It's everywhere going up is very correct though

USA 11%, UK 9%, Germany 8% etc

Turns out if you print tons of cash a lot sloshes into housing rather than industry. Same thing happened post 2009 of course.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/04/08/house-prices-in-the-rich-world-are-booming

 

 

[longgone]

5 minutes ago, captainb said:

London still going up just not as fast.

It's everywhere going up is very correct though

USA 11%, UK 9%, Germany 8% etc

Turns out if you print tons of cash a lot sloshes into housing rather than industry. Same thing happened post 2009 of course.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/04/08/house-prices-in-the-rich-world-are-booming

 

 

work just got even more worthless. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 hours ago, longgone said:

London and the se prices are roughly the same. 

I assume its everywhere else going up

They've fallen according to property lion and listings surged....no demand.  

Crash is happening now.

The sheer desperation of the government and MSM is there to be seen.

[spyguy]

11 hours ago, Martin_JD said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/18/the-guardian-view-on-the-house-price-boom-the-asset-rich-get-richer

"Demand for homes is surging to levels not seen for at least a decade"

Looks like this crash some here have been heralding isn't coming any time soon, quite the opposite in fact, as a few of us on here predicted!

Demand is surging - mortgages and sales are not. Pointless. Bit like loads of people lookign at naked ladies on the internet.

'For a decade' - since it all crashed down in fire.

Its crap. Its a load of people putting in offers for houses only to find they cannot borrow.

The only thing that drives housing market now is wages/income.

Has covid increased or reduced Joe UK;s income? yes or No

 

 

 

[spyguy]

9 hours ago, captainb said:

London still going up just not as fast.

It's everywhere going up is very correct though

USA 11%, UK 9%, Germany 8% etc

Turns out if you print tons of cash a lot sloshes into housing rather than industry. Same thing happened post 2009 of course.

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/04/08/house-prices-in-the-rich-world-are-booming

 

 

London has been falling for at least 5 years.

The fall has accelrated since covid, as theres a lot of empty rentals in London.

 

[skinnylattej]

8 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Demand is surging - mortgages and sales are not. Pointless. Bit like loads of people lookign at naked ladies on the internet.

'For a decade' - since it all crashed down in fire.

Its crap. Its a load of people putting in offers for houses only to find they cannot borrow.

The only thing that drives housing market now is wages/income.

Has covid increased or reduced Joe UK;s income? yes or No

 

 

 

Covid hasn't reduced the income of people who buy houses.  It's stuffed the under 30's bartender, chef, service workers, but they don't buy many houses.  It hasn't touched teachers, doctors, accountants, lawyers.

Middle income Britain has done OK out of Covid, most able to WFH, reduced childcare costs, commuting costs, no overseas family holiday.

Middle income Britain has been kept safe at home while low income Britain has borne the brunt of risk bringing Middle Britain's desires to their homes.

Or to put it more bluntly, poor people , couriers, transport managers , taxi drivers have waited on the well off property buying middle classes and kept them safe.

 

[spyguy]

Just now, skinnylattej said:

Covid hasn't reduced the income of people who buy houses.  It's stuffed the under 30's bartender, chef, service workers, but they don't buy many houses.  It hasn't touched teachers, doctors, accountants, lawyers.

Middle income Britain has done OK out of Covid, most able to WFH, reduced childcare costs, commuting costs, no overseas family holiday.

Middle income Britain has been kept safe at home while low income Britain has borne the brunt of risk bringing Middle Britain's desires to their homes.

Or to put it more bluntly, poor people , couriers, transport managers , taxi drivers have waited on the well off property buying middle classes and kept them safe.

 

Its affected the people who pay the public setcor wages.

Itll affect them later.

Covid has shown how little large number of the public sector contribute.

Half the teachers at my kids school skived off, to no real negative affect.

Ditto GPs - most of them shut up shop for 10 months.

Why not continue with phone consoltations, open up the field to more GPs, elsewhere.

I dont know my GP. Why do I care if Im in charge??

 

 

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

RELATIVE Demand is surging

 

 

 

...only because the number of propeties up for sale has collapsed.

There's a real why no one is moving house....

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

London has been falling for at least 5 years.

The fall has accelrated since covid, as theres a lot of empty rentals in London.

 

Prices down, listing volumes up.

Every man and his dog is rushing to sell in London this summer.....

Who's buying ?

No one.

CV19 is showing up the corrupt tory government and their housing policies for what they are, imho,

 

FRAUD.

[voy-por]

14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Prices down, listing volumes up.

Everything else is booming but the bottom rung in central London is shitting the bed. Badly. 

We are not seeing it in the numbers because nothing is transacting, even with huge ‘discounts’. 

I don’t know whether that portion of the market is enough to bring the whole thing down, probably not. But it will be interesting to see how it pans out when leaseholders start accepting the new reality because we could quite easily see >20pc falls. 

[stuckmojo]

11 hours ago, kzb said:

Not if they bought a year ago.  It's the New Boomer generation.

How? With what they're paying for the mortgage - for 40 years or so , both incomes tied up - they won't be happy unless they are lucky enough to cash in some equity when they sell. But sell do do what? They are as ******ed as anyone else post 2005

[iamnumerate]

1 hour ago, skinnylattej said:

Covid hasn't reduced the income of people who buy houses.  It's stuffed the under 30's bartender, chef, service workers, but they don't buy many houses.  It hasn't touched teachers, doctors, accountants, lawyers.

Middle income Britain has done OK out of Covid, most able to WFH, reduced childcare costs, commuting costs, no overseas family holiday.

Middle income Britain has been kept safe at home while low income Britain has borne the brunt of risk bringing Middle Britain's desires to their homes.

Or to put it more bluntly, poor people , couriers, transport managers , taxi drivers have waited on the well off property buying middle classes and kept them safe.

 

I don't know about that there are lots of IT people I know who were on furlough who worked for companies like Airlines and gyms etc.

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Prices down, listing volumes up.

Every man and his dog is rushing to sell in London this summer.....

Who's buying ?

No one.

CV19 is showing up the corrupt tory government and their housing policies for what they are, imho,

 

FRAUD.

Fraids a bit strong.

EA BS, over excited vested interests ....

The rise n rise of IO BTL was always going to make property downturns 'intersting'

More so in London. where the leverage is lower and the number of Brits is smaller.

In the olde days, most people, assuming they could afford the mortgage - or get some temporary relief -  would sit put thru economic downturns.

Now, with most London residents under ~50 being renters andior foreign. 1 month notice and they are off.

Chuck in HB reform - cap at 400/m would do - and removal of benefits and free public services from non natives - sorted.

 

 

 

[kzb]

56 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

How? With what they're paying for the mortgage - for 40 years or so , both incomes tied up - they won't be happy unless they are lucky enough to cash in some equity when they sell. But sell do do what? They are as ******ed as anyone else post 2005

Interest rate is far lower than when the boomers were in their prime.  This means the (25-yr) mortgage payment is about the same, as a proportion of median disposable income, as it was back then.  Outside the London area anyhow.

People post-2005 are not ****ed.  If they'd bought in 2009 they'd have doubled their money by now.  Just 12 years to double your money is much shorter period than it was for a boomer buying in the 1980's.

[crescent]

12 hours ago, kzb said:

Not if they bought a year ago.  It's the New Boomer generation.

Anyone who bought from 2012 ish has probably has paid off 40% of the mortgage term.  

 

1 hour ago, stuckmojo said:

How? With what they're paying for the mortgage - for 40 years or so , both incomes tied up - they won't be happy unless they are lucky enough to cash in some equity when they sell. But sell do do what?

But- in 40 years they will have paid of the portage they will not have any costs for accommodation other than maintenance and will have a home that they own.  

 

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Covid has shown how little large number of the public sector contribute.

Half the teachers at my kids school skived off, to no real negative affect.

And Council workers

2 hours ago, skinnylattej said:

It's stuffed the under 30's bartender, chef, service workers, but they don't buy many houses.  It hasn't touched teachers, doctors, accountants, lawyers.

Yes

 

[longgone]

3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

They've fallen according to property lion and listings surged....no demand.  

Crash is happening now.

The sheer desperation of the government and MSM is there to be seen.

so much conjecture LOL

[kzb]

1 hour ago, iamnumerate said:

Covid hasn't reduced the income of people who buy houses.  It's stuffed the under 30's bartender, chef, service workers, but they don't buy many houses.  It hasn't touched teachers, doctors, accountants, lawyers.

Exactly, in fact these people have money burning holes in their pockets, because they've not had anything to spend it on for over a year.  Certainly the wives and GF's will see that money sat there and say, let's move.

[Notting Hell]

In ten years time there will be an Adam Curtis documentary that states 'but then HPI emerged a vehicle for entrenched generational inequality'...

Probably need to regulate mortgage/income ratio start at 5x and slowly reduce by 0.2x every year until hits 3x and keep as such. Only way to deflate the bubble.

[iamnumerate]

58 minutes ago, kzb said:

Exactly, in fact these people have money burning holes in their pockets, because they've not had anything to spend it on for over a year.  Certainly the wives and GF's will see that money sat there and say, let's move.

I didn't say that.