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Is a price crash/ major correction coming


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On 22/04/2021 at 18:05, JoeDavola said:

I think we need a new topic entitled "feels like 2005 all over again"....270K to live in a converted roofspace in BT9 anyone?

https://www.propertypal.com/4-atelier-house-atelier-house-sans-souci-malone-road-belfast/687933/photo-4

Or perhaps the best part of 200K to live in what looks like an ex-council terrace house in Sydenham East Belfast:

https://www.propertypal.com/88-brandon-parade-belfast/688446/photo-5

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11 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Or perhaps the best part of 200K to live in what looks like an ex-council terrace house in Sydenham East Belfast:

https://www.propertypal.com/88-brandon-parade-belfast/688446/photo-5

Whilst it’s not my taste, it has had a lot of extensions and money spent on it, the side has been extended and a sunroom added to the back

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21 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Or perhaps the best part of 200K to live in what looks like an ex-council terrace house in Sydenham East Belfast:

https://www.propertypal.com/88-brandon-parade-belfast/688446/photo-5

I'm gradually moving towards the view that what we need now is even more ramping and larger increases. Get this all over with quicker so we can build again from the ashes. 

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8 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'm gradually moving towards the view that what we need now is even more ramping and larger increases.

Careful what ya wish for....check back to this topic in another month when prices are up another 5% :D

8 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Get this all over with quicker so we can build again from the ashes. 

Well as we've seen the government can shut down a big chunk of the economy and cause a second boom in 15 years. And we've also seen that the government will throw everything they can at the boom and indeed are taking steps to drive it even further (lower deposit mortgages) - so it'll need to be some event outside of the government that puts a stop on things.

All I do know is that anyone who did buy since the last crash, many of whom are in what would have been 'starter' homes for 10 years and counting and would now be moving 'up the ladder', want nothing to do with this market and have no plans on moving.

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1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Oh and check out this beauty from the BT9 rental market - have a poo in the bedroom whilst gazing out the front window over University Street:

https://www.propertypal.com/flat-1-12-university-street-belfast/688410/slideshow/photo-5

A planning application was submitted in 2014 for change of use on this. Applicant at the time shares the name of a director of 360 properties ltd.

I'm surprised the flat has passed planning.......

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15 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Sales are definitely falling through. I can list about 8 that have collapsed in BT9 in the last week or so. 

My family are in East Belfast which has been going mental price wise over the past year.

Couple of odd things happened recently - a house that went on for about £160K and sold within the week, mysteriously came on the market again and hasn't sold several weeks on - I'd have thought buyers would have been fighting over it even though it needs a serious facelift.

Another house that sold quickly for 200K seems to have had the sale fallen through, then got a new roof put on it (failed the survey?), and is back on a couple weeks back - be interesting to see how fast it sells.

A few semi's coming up near my mate in Organgefield east belfast a popular area which are taking slightly longer to sell than expected.

Having said that I don't see this as indicitive of a market downturn - I fully expect the market to go absolutely crazy over the summer as the lockdown ends and buyers and sellers come out in larger numbers than ever.

I know someone viewed this place and it was in a terrible state apparently - I mean it doesn't look great to me from the photos but it looked even worse in person and even smelled bad ect...but it sold much to my surprise. Doesn't look like £265K worth to me.

https://www.propertypal.com/61-donovan-parade-knights-green-castlereagh-belfast/681827

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On 27/04/2021 at 20:42, 2buyornot2buy said:

Sales are definitely falling through. I can list about 8 that have collapsed in BT9 in the last week or so. 

Rarely on this forum, primarily because anecdote is given far too much weight

We all need to be mindful of the risk of observation & recall bias. Many people do not grasp these concepts

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15 hours ago, Ausdave said:

In response to the topic question, my answer is no.

This time last year I would have said absolutely.

What I think will happen is inflation of everything, unfortunately there will be those trapped in the jaws of the money printer during the time it takes for wages to catch up.  In 10 years time most people I’ll be earning much more.  Houses will average more than now but not as much as the increase in average wages.  So no crash but the prices will adjust to normal in nominal terms. 

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1 hour ago, satsuma said:

What I think will happen is inflation of everything, unfortunately there will be those trapped in the jaws of the money printer during the time it takes for wages to catch up.  In 10 years time most people I’ll be earning much more.  Houses will average more than now but not as much as the increase in average wages.  So no crash but the prices will adjust to normal in nominal terms. 

I struggle to see where the wage inflation is going to come from. 

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I struggle to see where the wage inflation is going to come from. 

Depends on what you are doing now, you might be one that get trapped on lower wages looking at the many others on fat increases,

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33 minutes ago, satsuma said:

Depends on what you are doing now, you might be one that get trapped on lower wages looking at the many others on fat increases,

True, but I know in my particular area of global export, there's little appetite for price inflation from a UK company. Also worth mentioning the 31% corporation tax increase on the horizon. 

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11 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

True, but I know in my particular area of global export, there's little appetite for price inflation from a UK company. Also worth mentioning the 31% corporation tax increase on the horizon. 

Yea, that’s tough my friend, it’s hard when your facing the nashing teeth of inflation and no room to pass the increase on.  

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On 06/05/2021 at 11:16, 2buyornot2buy said:

True, but I know in my particular area of global export, there's little appetite for price inflation from a UK company. Also worth mentioning the 31% corporation tax increase on the horizon. 

How much is Sterling likely to devalue when the current financial supports & Brexit 'dividends' filter through ?..

Do we reckon housing will be a reasonabley good choice as an inflation hedge ?

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I remain skeptical that wages will inflate much, especially in industries where there isn't lots of opportunities to 'jump jobs' frequently for pay-rises like there is in IT for example.

If you're an IT bod who is ambitious and can hop jobs between these various American companies that are setting up in NI then yes you may well have very large pay increases over the coming decade.

I guess it will hinge on what kind of pay rises the public sector gets since so much of NI is public sector?

I think current prices are utterly ridiculous especially in Belfast but over the next 10 years it's a better inflation hedge than stirling that's for sure.

I also don't believe that IR's will ever rise in any meaningful way.

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13 minutes ago, headmelter said:

How much is Sterling likely to devalue when the current financial supports & Brexit 'dividends' filter through ?..

Do we reckon housing will be a reasonabley good choice as an inflation hedge ?

Devalue against what? Most countries have set the printers on overdrive. 

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22 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Devalue against what? Most countries have set the printers on overdrive. 

I get that but is Sterling likely to win the 'race to the bottom' ? ...& would housing be an effective inflation hedge ?

I'm nearly entirely out of cash but might be willing to remortgage for a punt...

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2 minutes ago, headmelter said:

I get that but is Sterling likely to win the 'race to the bottom' ? ...& would housing be an effective inflation hedge ?

I'm nearly entirely out of cash but might be willing to remortgage for a punt...

I get what you're saying. I find it very difficult to get my head around. What I'm seeing is a race to devalue. Where inflation is the objective. But literally everyone is doing it. 

I've still a sizable amount of cash sitting in my GIA. I'm also maxed out on pension and s&s ISAs. BP has been very good to me but obviously in fiat. Also have a couple of bitcoin I bought for £647 as a punt. 

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3 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I get what you're saying. I find it very difficult to get my head around. What I'm seeing is a race to devalue. Where inflation is the objective. But literally everyone is doing it. 

I've still a sizable amount of cash sitting in my GIA. I'm also maxed out on pension and s&s ISAs. BP has been very good to me but obviously in fiat. Also have a couple of bitcoin I bought for £647 as a punt. 

BTC punt was a cracker... I kick myself for not buying when it was $30 in 2011 but still not a believer so won't cry over spilled milk...

I've been toying with the idea of moving but EA valuations are way out of kilter in my view but what I believed just a fortnight ago I'm now not so sure about. A few houses I went to view have since gone sale agreed... There's a bubbly feel about property but with IR's at such low levels it could well turn out to be an effective inflation hedge...

I've been a buyer of the shiney stuff & am probably overweight in Ag but will continue to swap fiat for hard assets... I'm prepared to wait until Sept/Oct before making a decision so fingers crossed things will be a bit clearer by then.

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