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Is a price crash/ major correction coming


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42 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

No strategic thinking whatsoever. I found out yesterday I can get 50k for doing nothing more than fill a 2 page application form care of the folks on the Hill. They are continuing to throw money about with the splatter gun. 50k for absolutely nothing. 

Bouncy cheque loan or grant?  I know one guy pocketed a grant for more than 50k?  Do tell.  

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1 hour ago, satsuma said:

Bouncy cheque loan or grant?  I know one guy pocketed a grant for more than 50k?  Do tell.  

It's a grant I believe. The accountant sent me over the details. For large NAV properties. I'm not 100% on how derating affects it though. 

I did take out 2 bounce back loans too. Personally think you'd be mad not to. 

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

It's a grant I believe. The accountant sent me over the details. For large NAV properties. I'm not 100% on how derating affects it though. 

I did take out 2 bounce back loans too. Personally think you'd be mad not to. 

Fair play, personally did not bother with the bouncy cheque loans.  The grant is free money and people are getting them hand over fist.  

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13 hours ago, satsuma said:

Fair play, personally did not bother with the bouncy cheque loans.  The grant is free money and people are getting them hand over fist.  

If you've any capital spend projected in the next 6 years it makes sense to take the 2.5% interest bouncy, spend now and take advantage of the super deduction. 50k loan with no PG @ 2.5% is absolutely reckless lending. 

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I haven't read the whole thread but here's a recent anecdotal about a house in a rural district approx 45 miles north of Belfast...

House on mkt for 'offers over £249,950'.... Highest price achieved for 'similar properties' in the area since 2008 £168,000 (2019) & highest price achieved at the peak of the boom in 2007 was £225,00.

Bids were requested before a 'closing date' by the EA & a friend placed a £200,000 bid. He was contacted on the closing date & informed a bid for £238,000 had been lodged & would he like to increase his bid.

It's starting to feel a lot like 2006 to me... Time to stand back & wait until all the Co-vid financial supports are at an end & 'new' unemployment figures are realised. I have no doubt there's inflation in the system it just hasn't filtered through to everyday life yet... Q4 will be interesting imo...

 

 

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30 minutes ago, headmelter said:

I haven't read the whole thread but here's a recent anecdotal about a house in a rural district approx 45 miles north of Belfast...

House on mkt for 'offers over £249,950'.... Highest price achieved for 'similar properties' in the area since 2008 £168,000 (2019) & highest price achieved at the peak of the boom in 2007 was £225,00.

Bids were requested before a 'closing date' by the EA & a friend placed a £200,000 bid. He was contacted on the closing date & informed a bid for £238,000 had been lodged & would he like to increase his bid.

It's starting to feel a lot like 2006 to me... Time to stand back & wait until all the Co-vid financial supports are at an end & 'new' unemployment figures are realised. I have no doubt there's inflation in the system it just hasn't filtered through to everyday life yet... Q4 will be interesting imo...

 

 

Can't argue with any of that. How to protect against inflation is a worry. 

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30 minutes ago, headmelter said:

I haven't read the whole thread but here's a recent anecdotal about a house in a rural district approx 45 miles north of Belfast...

House on mkt for 'offers over £249,950'.... Highest price achieved for 'similar properties' in the area since 2008 £168,000 (2019) & highest price achieved at the peak of the boom in 2007 was £225,00.

Bids were requested before a 'closing date' by the EA & a friend placed a £200,000 bid. He was contacted on the closing date & informed a bid for £238,000 had been lodged & would he like to increase his bid.

It's starting to feel a lot like 2006 to me... Time to stand back & wait until all the Co-vid financial supports are at an end & 'new' unemployment figures are realised. I have no doubt there's inflation in the system it just hasn't filtered through to everyday life yet... Q4 will be interesting imo...

 

 

I called about a house a while back, was on at 180k, called a week after it was listed and it was at 230k and they were closing.  Personally i can see the **** falling out.  

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18 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Can't argue with any of that. How to protect against inflation is a worry. 

Au is my inflation hedge, it has done its job protecting purchasing power well since 2008. It is currently consolidating in a very similar fashion to 2012...

17 minutes ago, satsuma said:

I called about a house a while back, was on at 180k, called a week after it was listed and it was at 230k and they were closing.  Personally i can see the **** falling out.  

My thoughts exactly... I'm hoping to move but am happy to swap my fiat for the shiny yellow metal & sit on the sidelines for a couple of years. Hopefully the yellow metal will protect against inflation & HP's will correct similar to 2008-2011.

Edited by headmelter
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1 minute ago, headmelter said:

Au is my inflation hedge, it has done its job protecting purchasing power well since 2008. It is currently consolidating in a very similar fashion to 2010...

My thoughts exactly... I'm hoping to move but am happy to swap my fiat for the shiny yellow metal & sit on the sidelines for a couple of years. Hopefully the yellow metal will protect against inflation & HP's will correct similar to 2008-2011.

I have palpitations just thinking about putting a decent amount in the shiny. 

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26 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I have palpitations just thinking about putting a decent amount in the shiny. 

I've had a position since 2005... took a break accumulating from 2012 & bought a house then started collecting again just before the Brexit vote in 2016... I'm pretty confident, have a reasonable position & continue to accumulate... I'd rather have a hard asset than a rapidly decreasing in value Fiat currency. I don't think it's any different this time... 😏

Edited by headmelter
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7 minutes ago, headmelter said:

I've had a position since 2005... took a break accumulating from 2012 & bought a house then started collecting again just before the Brexit vote in 2016... I'm pretty confident have a reasonable position & continue to accumulate... I'd rather have a hard asset than a rapidly decreasing in value Fiat currency. I don't think it's any different this time... 😏

I get the logic I really do. My main problem is seeing past yield. I do have about 5% in a gold etc but rightly or wrongly I've been loading up on stocks with decent yield that look underpriced and taking the very odd punt too. I may need to look at my ratios again. 

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2 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I get the logic I really do. My main problem is seeing past yield. I do have about 5% in a gold etc but rightly or wrongly I've been loading up on stocks with decent yield that look underpriced and taking the very odd punt too. I may need to look at my ratios again. 

I'm very risk averse. I have a healthy position in physical Ag which I'm collecting for the kids so have a 3-6 year time frame before cashing out.

I swap my Fiat for Au when I believe the market dips.I've always avoided stocks as I think they're too much hassle & take up too much time which my kids have dibs on. I'll cash out when property corrects after this mini boom & I find the right house. Like I said before, this time is no different than 2008-2011/12... I'm betting the house on it. 😂😂

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1 minute ago, headmelter said:

I'm very risk averse. I have a healthy position in physical Ag which I'm collecting for the kids so have a 3-6 year time frame before cashing out.

I swap my Fiat for Au when I believe the market dips.I've always avoided stocks as I think they're too much hassle & take up too much time which my kids have dibs on. I'll cash out when property corrects after this mini boom & I find the right house. Like I said before, this time is no different than 2008-2011/12... I'm betting the house on it. 😂😂

You must have balls of Au. Knowing my luck I'd get robbed if I had it sitting about. I approach it from a tax point of view mainly. Little beats a SIPP for advantages on input and S&SISA for withdrawal. 

Talking about houses I'm seriously tempted to sell now and guarantee a healthy retirement in my early 50s. 

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4 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

You must have balls of Au. Knowing my luck I'd get robbed if I had it sitting about. I approach it from a tax point of view mainly. Little beats a SIPP for advantages on input and S&SISA for withdrawal. 

Talking about houses I'm seriously tempted to sell now and guarantee a healthy retirement in my early 50s. 

Au is VAT free  & UK denominated coins are CGT free... I truly believe Au will be trading at £2,500 per Oz & Ag @ £50+ in the not too distant future. The billions all CB's are printing are unbelievable figures in comparison to 2008 & I believe it won't end well.

I'd love to sell but it's way too much hassle moving with the kids & knowing that you could be living an itinerant lifestyle for 2-4 year & would you realise a significant enough 'profit' to justify the ear ache from the missus.... Personally I'd opt for the quiet life & my own confidence that I got it right in 1998, again in 2005 & then again in 2012... This time is no different & even more acute than before imo.

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2 hours ago, headmelter said:

I'm very risk averse. I have a healthy position in physical Ag which I'm collecting for the kids so have a 3-6 year time frame before cashing out.

I swap my Fiat for Au when I believe the market dips.I've always avoided stocks as I think they're too much hassle & take up too much time which my kids have dibs on. I'll cash out when property corrects after this mini boom & I find the right house. Like I said before, this time is no different than 2008-2011/12... I'm betting the house on it. 😂😂

does storage worry you ?

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1 hour ago, headmelter said:

No... I pay a reasonable amount for safe & trustworthy storage...

I always thought gold was just bought on an index and you just get a certificate or whatever, didn’t realise you actually had to store the thing yourself!

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16 minutes ago, nigooner said:

I always thought gold was just bought on an index and you just get a certificate or whatever, didn’t realise you actually had to store the thing yourself!

You don't have to but there's an old saying "If you don't hold it, you don't own it".  Au in the LBMA & the COMEX  has been rehypothecated many times.... If there is a major currency/monetary crisis resulting in bank runs good luck getting physical metal to replace your currency.... if there isn't you've always something, out of the governments reach, to leave your kids/grandkids.

There's also 'allocated' accounts like Bullion vault...

https://goldsilver.com/blog/what-is-gold-hypothecation-and-rehypothecation/

Edited by headmelter
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13 minutes ago, headmelter said:

You don't have to but there's an old saying "If you don't hold it, you don't own it".  Au in the LBMA & the COMEX  has been rehypothecated many times.... If there is a major currency/monetary crisis resulting in bank runs good luck getting physical metal to replace your currency.... if there isn't you've always something, out of the governments reach, to leave your kids/grandkids.

There's also 'allocated' accounts like Bullion vault...

https://goldsilver.com/blog/what-is-gold-hypothecation-and-rehypothecation/

Where do you buy your gold? Would you recommend sites like eBay?

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2 minutes ago, Bluto Bites said:

Where do you buy your gold? Would you recommend sites like eBay?

Personally I'd avoid Ebay....Check out the gold thread on the main forum for pointers. I stick with reputable coin dealers like these. There are others but I've used these ones with no problems since 2005 :

https://atkinsonsbullion.com/gold/gold-coins

https://www.coininvest.com/en/gold-coins/britannia/?change=1&curRate=pound_rate

https://www.chards.co.uk/

https://www.atsbullion.com/one-ounce-gold-coins/

https://goldsilver.be/en/12-gold

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39 minutes ago, headmelter said:

Personally I'd avoid Ebay....Check out the gold thread on the main forum for pointers. I stick with reputable coin dealers like these. There are others but I've used these ones with no problems since 2005 :

https://atkinsonsbullion.com/gold/gold-coins

https://www.coininvest.com/en/gold-coins/britannia/?change=1&curRate=pound_rate

https://www.chards.co.uk/

https://www.atsbullion.com/one-ounce-gold-coins/

https://goldsilver.be/en/12-gold

Am I right in thinking coins are VAT zero rated but bullion isn't? 

 

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Am I right in thinking coins are VAT zero rated but bullion isn't? 

 

New Ag coins have vat but all Au coins are zero vat. Both Au & Ag UK denominated coins are also CGT free.

 

All investment Au is vat free...

Edited by headmelter
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