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House Price Crash Forum

Halifax Mar '21


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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Speak for yourself, I predicted they would go up.

I'm predicting they'll go down now.   This is proper end of a mania stuff now.  There is no housing market, even an ex-MPC member is warning about this insanity.

 

Except as has been pointed out to you multiple times, at the start of 2020 you were predicting some juicy falls as per the below. 
 

Last week you then rage quit saying in as many words it will never crash and you are seeing big gains everywhere. Now you’re back to it’s all going to fall. 
 

Wonder which way the wind will blow you next week!?

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4 hours ago, GettingBored said:

A year ago we all thought house prices would fall dramatically and become affordable, 12 months on and prices are up 6.5%.

Buying a house a year ago would have been a massive risk that any sensible person would have avoided. With all the money printing, props and the "economic boom" predicted when lockdown ends I can only see prices going up even more :( 

 

Nope. Unlike TCON, I’ve been consistently saying no fall for the last couple of years. I even put my money where my mouth was and brought early 2020 around the time of the first lockdown to predictions of many on here of financial ruin. There are a few of us on this forum who don’t exist in an echo chamber and just get on with our lives. But of course we’re trolls and idiots. 
 

You say a sensible person would have avoided buying last year, but history isn’t really on your side with that one as you point out with the (at least) 6.5% rises. Indeed, the identical house opposite has just sold (not SSTC) for just under 100k more than we paid a year and a bit ago. I agree with you - prices are going to go up for the rest of this year, and i personally think into the mid-term future.

Buying a house is always a risk. It’s even in the wording about it may be repossessed etc etc if you don’t keep up with payments. Get on with life...

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33 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Nope. Unlike TCON, I’ve been consistently saying no fall for the last couple of years. I even put my money where my mouth was and brought early 2020 around the time of the first lockdown to predictions of many on here of financial ruin. There are a few of us on this forum who don’t exist in an echo chamber and just get on with our lives. But of course we’re trolls and idiots. 

You seem to be conveniently forgetting the pandemics initial impact. After a couple of weeks of the first lockdown even the most optimistic VI was forecasting falls in 2020. That was until Rishi unleashed his money sprinkler and the SDLT holiday.

Unless you had the inside track on all of this, then I’m calling ******** on your claims of being some kind of HPI sauvant.

You got lucky, that’s it! Your constant crowing on here is becoming somewhat boring.

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3 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

After a couple of weeks of the first lockdown even the most optimistic VI was forecasting falls in 2020. That was until Rishi unleashed his money sprinkler and the SDLT holiday.

 

But that just shows you that they will do anything and everything to prop up house prices. 

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2 minutes ago, longgone said:

The damage of covid will surface eventually 

even the printer will run out of ink eventually 

Probably a currency reorganisation will take place as the debt is probably unpayable now. 

I was looking at the global debt charts today - 60 odd TRILLION of debt. And the policy is to create more!? It's a global criminal scam

 

Guess who owes most of it per GDP!

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1 minute ago, Trump Invective said:

I was looking at the global debt charts today - 60 odd TRILLION of debt. And the policy is to create more!? It's a global criminal scam

 

Guess who owes most of it per GDP!

greece ?

 

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21 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

You seem to be conveniently forgetting the pandemics initial impact. After a couple of weeks of the first lockdown even the most optimistic VI was forecasting falls in 2020. That was until Rishi unleashed his money sprinkler and the SDLT holiday.

Unless you had the inside track on all of this, then I’m calling ******** on your claims of being some kind of HPI sauvant.

You got lucky, that’s it! Your constant crowing on here is becoming somewhat boring.

But yet people 'crowing' on here about a crash 200 times a day isn't? People posting endless nonsense about my mate down the pub can't sell his house or I know an estate agent friend who is bricking it isn't at all boring? Guess it probably fits your narrative more than my 'crowing' so you don't care? 

I have never claimed to have any special knowledge or skills unlike many on here. The fact of the matter is that this time last year all the stars aligned in my n=1 case, and we found the perfect property that we could see ourselves in for decades, so we went for it. That is the bit that wasn't luck and was judgement - it is taking a view that even if the pandemic had crashed the whole lot, it didn't really matter for us as we didn't intend to sell for a long time. 

Now you can lament all you want about money taps and all the rest of it, but again back then there were plenty on this site saying the government has nothing left to throw at things, it's all over, no further help etc. Then how many thousands of posts about idiots buying houses and sheeple and stupid homeowners and the such. And what has happened? So yeah, as myself and a few others do, it's quite interesting to post every now and again about how wrong the collective is here, and to do so by highlighting past posts or inconsistencies with some of the guru's such as TCON who flip flop their narrative every week to fit with whatever has just happened. 

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2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Nope. Unlike TCON, I’ve been consistently saying no fall for the last couple of years.

Total total bull***t someshine.

TCON was off this site till around 18 months ago and started posting because of the CV19.  TCON was about the only person this time last year that said prices were going to shoot up off the back of 0.1% IRs and the term funding scam.

If you're going to lie, dont do it on a public forum where everything can be cross referenced and check.

If you're trying to discredit someone at least make it plausible.

You've embarrassed yourself, and proven that in fact you are a troll idiot.

Sulk off you little weasel.

There's been a troll or two on this forum for years that have had it in for the TCON.  It's just plain f**king weird and ever slightly sinister.

I'm certainly saying now that we'll see prices fall, the prices are extreme now and there will be no economic bounce, any inflation will destroy peoples ability to pay their debts.

We will hopefully see a deflationary event but if wages start to rise sharply then do yourself a favour and buy a house sharpish.

Meanwhile, tell the trolls to **** off, pathetic little weasels.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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1 hour ago, longgone said:

The damage of covid will surface eventually 

even the printer will run out of ink eventually 

Probably a currency reorganisation will take place as the debt is probably unpayable now. 

What is a "currency reorganisation" though ?

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9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Total total bull***t someshine.

TCON was off this site till around 18 months ago and started posting because of the CV19.  TCON was about the only person this time last year that said prices were going to shoot up off the back of 0.1% IRs and the term funding scam.

If you're going to lie, dont do it on a public forum where everything can be cross referenced and check.

If you're trying to discredit someone at least make it plausible.

You've embarrassed yourself, and proven that in fact you are a troll idiot.

Sulk off you little weasel.

There's been a troll or two on this forum for years that have had it in for the TCON.  It's just plain f**king weird and ever slightly sinister.

I'm certainly saying now that we'll see prices fall, the prices are extreme now and there will be no economic bounce, any inflation will destroy peoples ability to pay their debts.

We will hopefully see a deflationary event but if wages start to rise sharply then do yourself a favour and buy a house sharpish.

Meanwhile, tell the trolls to **** off, pathetic little weasels.

Prices will not fall, the government have made it clear. 

The probability of another lockdown is extremely high.

That gives government another excuse to inject more free cash.

There making it easy for HKs to resettle here.

There still allowing immigration.

They are building apartments right now all throughout birmingham. One drive for 10 minutes and you'll see atleast 10k apartments being built. Plenty of new builds houses.

The builders/land owners want their money. They are in bed with Rishi and Boris. They snuggle together at night, they are good pals, they scratch each others backs.

Our discussions on here, although entertaining and educational. Have no impact on Boris and the builders in the pub.

 

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36 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Total total bull***t someshine.

TCON was off this site till around 18 months ago and started posting because of the CV19.  TCON was about the only person this time last year that said prices were going to shoot up off the back of 0.1% IRs and the term funding scam.

If you're going to lie, dont do it on a public forum where everything can be cross referenced and check.

If you're trying to discredit someone at least make it plausible.

You've embarrassed yourself, and proven that in fact you are a troll idiot.

Sulk off you little weasel.

There's been a troll or two on this forum for years that have had it in for the TCON.  It's just plain f**king weird and ever slightly sinister.

I'm certainly saying now that we'll see prices fall, the prices are extreme now and there will be no economic bounce, any inflation will destroy peoples ability to pay their debts.

We will hopefully see a deflationary event but if wages start to rise sharply then do yourself a favour and buy a house sharpish.

Meanwhile, tell the trolls to **** off, pathetic little weasels.

You don't need me to discredit you, you do a good enough job of that yourself. And what is with the talking about yourself in the third person? Reminds me of 'The Rock'. Ok, so we're all set for a fall. Care to give a time period or is this just prices will fall sometime in the next 100 years, in which case, I agree.

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The current prices are a result of COVID supply / demand - very short term

Supply dries up as no one is incentivised to move during COVID (Debts get forebearance, Divorces are being postponed, and Probates are being held up.  Add in a slowdown of redundancies due to Furlough and you can see why no one is a forced seller).

Demand increases due to SD holiday and people using lock down savings to get higher leverage from banks

 

The $64,000 question is what is going to sustain this?

  • More Props  - The only big ones left are either UK Freddie Mac to Undewrite loans or Pension access for houses
  • Banks risk appetite - they are getting burnt by Hedge Funds and seeing the party is over.  QE is running out of steam as other economies race ahead - China is moving to internal consumption
  • COVID bounce back - sure there will be a post lock down boom, but will things be back to previous?  Any recession will be explosive

 

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On 09/04/2021 at 15:34, Twenty Something said:

Except as has been pointed out to you multiple times, at the start of 2020 you were predicting some juicy falls as per the below. 
 

Last week you then rage quit saying in as many words it will never crash and you are seeing big gains everywhere. Now you’re back to it’s all going to fall. 
 

Wonder which way the wind will blow you next week!?

I think you need to learn to differentiate a quote from another poster to the original poster before you are rude about people. The Count is quoting my comment and making a comment about that. Since early January things have been going crazy, there is a mania down here. We are in the process of buying a house at the moment, but expecting to get gazumped, at which stage we are out and will stop looking. Very bad market to be buying in.

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1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

I think you need to learn to differentiate a quote from another poster to the original poster before you are rude about people. The Count is quoting my comment and making a comment about that. Since early January things have been going crazy, there is a mania down here. We are in the process of buying a house at the moment, but expecting to get gazumped, at which stage we are out and will stop looking. Very bad market to be buying in.

I’m not entirely sure what you’re upset about. I know that’s what he’s doing, and I’m making a point about his assertion that he always knew prices were going up in 2020 despite the linked post very much proving otherwise.  
 

As for being rude, I don’t see it personally, more tongue in cheek - but if that’s how you want to interpret it then that’s your prerogative. You are of course sticking up for someone who quite regularly posts expletive laden rants here calling people all sorts of four letter words, and I don’t recall seeing you  getting all flustered about that. I think in all honesty given this poster’s history that if he gets a bit of sarcasm back every now and again it is well deserved. 

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On 4/9/2021 at 5:01 PM, Twenty Something said:

But yet people 'crowing' on here about a crash 200 times a day isn't? People posting endless nonsense about my mate down the pub can't sell his house or I know an estate agent friend who is bricking it isn't at all boring? Guess it probably fits your narrative more than my 'crowing' so you don't care? 

I have never claimed to have any special knowledge or skills unlike many on here. The fact of the matter is that this time last year all the stars aligned in my n=1 case, and we found the perfect property that we could see ourselves in for decades, so we went for it. That is the bit that wasn't luck and was judgement - it is taking a view that even if the pandemic had crashed the whole lot, it didn't really matter for us as we didn't intend to sell for a long time. 

Now you can lament all you want about money taps and all the rest of it, but again back then there were plenty on this site saying the government has nothing left to throw at things, it's all over, no further help etc. Then how many thousands of posts about idiots buying houses and sheeple and stupid homeowners and the such. And what has happened? So yeah, as myself and a few others do, it's quite interesting to post every now and again about how wrong the collective is here, and to do so by highlighting past posts or inconsistencies with some of the guru's such as TCON who flip flop their narrative every week to fit with whatever has just happened. 

Not much of a timeframe to be lamenting your judgement, a year in an unprecedented situation?

Regardless, I cngaf about a crash, no crash, whatever. I've made enough dosh not to care.

The fact that we've gotten into a situation whereby people are effectively gambling on property due to market timing is a sh*t show of the highest order. Come back in a couple of decades time and tell me you weren't a w*nker for not understanding that.

 

 

 

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On 09/04/2021 at 18:10, TheCountOfNowhere said:

What is a "currency reorganisation" though ?

who knows something along the lines of decimalisation lose some inflation among that.  Or a world currency so they can destroy them all at the same time in equilibrium. 

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42 minutes ago, sta100 said:

Not much of a timeframe to be lamenting your judgement, a year in an unprecedented situation?

Regardless, I cngaf about a crash, no crash, whatever. I've made enough dosh not to care.

The fact that we've gotten into a situation whereby people are effectively gambling on property due to market timing is a sh*t show of the highest order. Come back in a couple of decades time and tell me you weren't a w*nker for not understanding that.

 

 

 

What judgement am I lamenting? I’m doing the opposite and saying I’m happy with my judgement. Where am I lamenting? What am I missing? 
 

A lot of posters on here, yourself included it would seem, do love to invent something and then climb aboard the outrage bus with a big stick and jump up and down flashing your morality. Where have I posted that I’m happy with the current situation? Where have I posted that I think this is a great situation? Where have I laughed at those who can’t afford to buy? When has buying a property ever not been a gamble or a risk? As per a post last week, it’s even written into your contract that your home is at risk if you don’t keep up with repayments. When has the majority on this site ever been of the opinion that buying isn’t a gamble? Houses could be a tenner and the regulars on here would be jumping up and down saying they are too expensive. 

You seem mighty angry for someone who is minted. Go out in the sunshine and have some oysters and a beer!

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9 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

What judgement am I lamenting? I’m doing the opposite and saying I’m happy with my judgement. Where am I lamenting? What am I missing? 
 

A lot of posters on here, yourself included it would seem, do love to invent something and then climb aboard the outrage bus with a big stick and jump up and down flashing your morality. Where have I posted that I’m happy with the current situation? Where have I posted that I think this is a great situation? Where have I laughed at those who can’t afford to buy? When has buying a property ever not been a gamble or a risk? As per a post last week, it’s even written into your contract that your home is at risk if you don’t keep up with repayments. When has the majority on this site ever been of the opinion that buying isn’t a gamble? Houses could be a tenner and the regulars on here would be jumping up and down saying they are too expensive. 

You seem mighty angry for someone who is minted. Go out in the sunshine and have some oysters and a beer!

Well no, you don't have to have a contract to own a home.

Yes I'm very angry, and?

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3 minutes ago, sta100 said:

Well no, you don't have to have a contract to own a home.

Yes I'm very angry, and?

Well you do if you are the majority who want a mortgage. If like yourself you have the cash to buy a house then great, go for it. As for the rest of it, I’m not a life coach so your anger issues aren’t something I can help with. 

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