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Nationwide Index Mar 21


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1 minute ago, Si1 said:

That's interesting as I've seen IT techie recruitment going ballistic, in the job ads anyway.

 

Majority of roles are back-office non-tech, non-customer facing.

We have recruited some expensive technical people recently, and what struck me was the number of applicants we had, much more than we usually see.

There's a lot of turmoil with IR35 at the minute, I think that's adding to the current churn across the industry. There's a lot of fishing going on by recruiters at the minute - it's a very confused picture.

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

It is.

Id bet money on it.

I know someone on furlough from an airline. The airline has cut her route and she accepted that there's no chance she's ever returning to her old job now. So much so that she's actually started working at Costa on the sly.  

Why does the airline keep her on furlough when it's pretty obvious she's never going back? I wish i knew, but my guess is that they're just kicking the can down the road and hoping tomorrow is brighter. That or incompetence. I suspect a similar situation is being played out in many businesses. 

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1 minute ago, sammersmith said:

I know someone on furlough from an airline. The airline has cut her route and she accepted that there's no chance she's ever returning to her old job now. So much so that she's actually started working at Costa on the sly.  

Why does the airline keep her on furlough when it's pretty obvious she's never going back? I wish i knew, but my guess is that they're just kicking the can down the road and hoping tomorrow is brighter. That or incompetence. I suspect a similar situation is being played out in many businesses. 

Laying off a large number of people is a ballache.

And it costs money.

Airlines have no cash flow at the mo.

If they announce lots of layoffs then they might be insolvent.

Theyll be hoping people will f-off before they have to lay off and take a cash hit. Adn that the access to cash improves in the meantime.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Laying off a large number of people is a ballache.

And it costs money.

Airlines have no cash flow at the mo.

If they announce lots of layoffs then they might be insolvent.

Theyll be hoping people will f-off before they have to lay off and take a cash hit. Adn that the access to cash improves in the meantime.

 

 

This

Holiday pay now is 4 plus months for employers who had to have people work over last summer.  Employees get quite arsey as they want furlough and then a holiday so many weak bosses have not forced them to take some and or don't have the top up cash.

If you are renting a premises and it's touch and go.

Fob off landlord and suppliers trade the summer and then go under in Sept October and blame covid.

Only the government and landlords think once you get many months of arrears will you suffer to pay it back when you are already sufferering.  Limited liability will set you free with so many empty properties about.

Also many sick employees with kind bosses will have been furloughed maybe even ones who agree to go at the end of it to save them hardship.

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais
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I agree that a lot of redundancies are being put off due to the furlough scheme for all the reasons others have given plus the simple burying of the head in the sand that goes on.

There will definitely be a clearing out of old wood now that employers can see who's needed and who's not.

It's going to be classic closing jaws of unemployment increasing and tax revenue falling

 

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4 hours ago, Smiley George said:

Just to set the two of you straight with an example from the "real world"; we currently have about 10% of our staff still on furlough. We have a directors meeting straight after Easter to decide how many of those people will unfortunately need to be made redundant - current thinking is at least half will need to go.

We're a small IT company (80 staff) and haven't been impacted by Covid from a profitability standpoint, however what it has done is make us realise where the underperforming areas of our business are and we've adapted accordingly. Essentially we're more profitable despite the furloughed staff taking no real part in operations, they add no value. A significant number of our partners and distributors are all in similar positions and will start to make redundancies into the new FY and throughout the summer as furlough ramps down.

So COVID has made you realise you have inefficiencies, and that these people should be unfortunately made redundant? Sounds like furlough or not these people were on the way out the door if the management were doing their jobs properly and maximising profit? And your n=1 example doesn't really set me straight - the ONS data shows unemployment remains at historically low levels, and most commentators are expecting to see a pickup related to the economy opening in a couple of week time.

Figures for Nov 20 - Jan 21 show it at 5.1%. The 2008 financial crash saw it go to 7.9%, yet as we stand currently there is nothing in the pipeline that is going to give that kind of a shock to the system. We are in unprecedented times certainly, but I'm still not buying the the end of furlough is going to see a dramatic rise in unemployment. The jobs that were lost will be created again as more and more firms open for business, and I think the leisure and hospitality industry is going on a 3 month bender from June which will more than stock the coffers. 

Screenshot 2021-03-31 at 17.55.19.png

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I'll take that. It's the first sign of the new dawn.

The purchases taking place relying on the stamp duty holiday will be drying up very soon (only 3 months left) and others won't make it and fall back into the market.

More Mr and Mrs Furlough's will be fighting it out for limited jobs as they lose theirs.

House prices will go down.

 

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18 minutes ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

I do wonder how many applications are based on no Stamp Duty?  Obviously not in these numbers.  How long is credible?

I have started reading MSE and Mumsnet. I hate their self righteousness however, unlike here, they are a good indicator of mainstream sentiment. 

Before the SD extension there were threads and threads about pulling out / reducing offer / etc if they can't meet the deadline. A lot of the posters said that they were only moving now as they'd never have access to that kind of money to pay for stamp duty. I get the impression money burns holes in their pockets.

It's all quiet there now but I'm interested to see what happens come August when the final final SD deadline taper is imminent. 

Edited by sammersmith
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9 hours ago, spyguy said:

It is.

Id bet money on it.

 

 

 

 

9 hours ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

When Companies thought they trade, however their market no longer exists.

Aside from businesses that rely on office workers.. I think its severely underestimating how much the plebs will go straight back to their die hard habitual spending.. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for this new normal to stay, it’s kind of a peaceful life, but if you’ve got money in stocks, you’ve already backed a recovery anyway it’s going back to the norm one way or another minus a few pawns they managed to shift off the board (self employed / small businesses) 

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2 hours ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

What makes this assumption?

Probably the opposite assumptions that someone who disagrees with me would make. Instead of assuming that businesses will get going again the opposing view would purport that they won't. Neither position is able to be proven or negated at present, just as with house prices. I guess it's another one of those I'll see you back here end of the year and we'll see sort of scenarios. 

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3 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Probably the opposite assumptions that someone who disagrees with me would make. Instead of assuming that businesses will get going again the opposing view would purport that they won't. Neither position is able to be proven or negated at present, just as with house prices. I guess it's another one of those I'll see you back here end of the year and we'll see sort of scenarios. 

Often the answer is somewhere in between.

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31 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Often the answer is somewhere in between.

On that we can agree, but given that people are generally one way or the other you probably sit somewhere between the middle and either positive or negative outcome dependant upon your outlook. So, for me I don't believe unemployment will drop to 0, but neither do I think it will drastically increase. I can understand the opposing view, and don't think it is impossible at all I am wrong given the circumstances we still find ourselves in, but given the pictures all over the country and the mental traffic on the roads now I would say the country is voting with its feet about lockdown, and I strongly suspect the shops will open to queues of people around the block and fights a la Black Friday. I strongly suspect pubs and later on clubs will open to similar scenes. I think June 21st is going to be a night I would want to book off as a policeman. I think a huge spending spree demanding the re-employment of 10's of thousands is far more likely than nothing happening, and I think that this is going to continue far further than Autumn once the run up to Xmas kicks in. Now whether COVID comes and spoils all that who knows...

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2 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

On that we can agree, but given that people are generally one way or the other you probably sit somewhere between the middle and either positive or negative outcome dependant upon your outlook. So, for me I don't believe unemployment will drop to 0, but neither do I think it will drastically increase. I can understand the opposing view, and don't think it is impossible at all I am wrong given the circumstances we still find ourselves in, but given the pictures all over the country and the mental traffic on the roads now I would say the country is voting with its feet about lockdown, and I strongly suspect the shops will open to queues of people around the block and fights a la Black Friday. I strongly suspect pubs and later on clubs will open to similar scenes. I think June 21st is going to be a night I would want to book off as a policeman. I think a huge spending spree demanding the re-employment of 10's of thousands is far more likely than nothing happening, and I think that this is going to continue far further than Autumn once the run up to Xmas kicks in. Now whether COVID comes and spoils all that who knows...

That's plausible. I'd say there may be lagging effects of the economic shock leading to unemployment. But of course whether these are significant or not are an important question, and as you say covid still represents a wild card too. 

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9 hours ago, Money Frugality said:

 

Aside from businesses that rely on office workers.. I think its severely underestimating how much the plebs will go straight back to their die hard habitual spending.. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for this new normal to stay, it’s kind of a peaceful life, but if you’ve got money in stocks, you’ve already backed a recovery anyway it’s going back to the norm one way or another minus a few pawns they managed to shift off the board (self employed / small businesses) 

Real estate != UK economy.

Employment and the economy changes.

20 years ago, the idea that Debenhams and Top Shop etc would fail would be laughed at.

It happened.

Having a few million spend 1h-2h travelling into London, to work in offices, whilst the capitals residential real estates is mainly occupied by migrants, with the UKGOV paying the highest rent in the country is nuts and wont last.

 

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Real estate != UK economy.

Employment and the economy changes.

20 years ago, the idea that Debenhams and Top Shop etc would fail would be laughed at.

It happened.

Having a few million spend 1h-2h travelling into London, to work in offices, whilst the capitals residential real estates is mainly occupied by migrants, with the UKGOV paying the highest rent in the country is nuts and wont last.

 

 

Come on. Can't blame the migrants for house price woes...that's what the trash media want us to believe. Blame everyone else for everything  apart from the policy makers...

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2 minutes ago, househunter123 said:

Come on. Can't blame the migrants for house price woes...that's what the trash media want us to believe. Blame everyone else for everything  apart from the policy makers...

And the 3.5 million young Britons still living in the family home because they can neither afford to rent or buy?

Who and what should we blame for that?

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8 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

And the 3.5 million young Britons still living in the family home because they can neither afford to rent or buy?

Who and what should we blame for that?

NIMBYs.

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