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Nationwide Index Mar 21


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Tallies with what Ive been saying - banks are reluctant to lend. sicne Covid

Theres a lot of people sat in chains,. waiting for finance.

Most will be disappointed.

And now UKs got the fall out from a load of sales being brought forward by stamp duty fiddling.

Combined with UKGOV drawing money from propping up jobs/pay.

 

 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Help to ****** 3.0 hasn't started yet.

I have a feeling they don't feel they can afford it. Generation Buy is a minor intervention, in comparative terms. And it's telling, imo, that the current housing secretary, Robert Jenrick, born 1982, isn't keen on bailing out the national cladding issue where his predecessor, James Brokenshire, born 1968, is. I think the boomer generation of politicians think hosing money at propping up the property market is normal. I think the following generations are actually wondering on whom the costs will land.

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43 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I have a feeling they don't feel they can afford it. Generation Buy is a minor intervention, in comparative terms. And it's telling, imo, that the current housing secretary, Robert Jenrick, born 1982, isn't keen on bailing out the national cladding issue where his predecessor, James Brokenshire, born 1968, is. I think the boomer generation of politicians think hosing money at propping up the property market is normal. I think the following generations are actually wondering on whom the costs will land.

Jenrick is a massive property VI. If he had any reservations about using public money to prop up the housing market he wouldn't be a govt minister, or even a Conservative MP.

HtB 3.0 will run from April 2021 to December 2022.

TFSME (TFS 3.0) which began in March 2020 has been extended twice. The repayment term for borrowers is now ten years.

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14 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Jenrick is a massive property VI. If he had any reservations about using public money to prop up the housing market he wouldn't be a govt minister, or even a Conservative MP.

HtB 3.0 will run from April 2021 to December 2022.

TFSME (TFS 3.0) which began in March 2020 has been extended twice. The repayment term for borrowers is now ten years.

Jenrick may or may not.

However, afaict the treasury is now making decision on ukgov 'help'

At the moment,- and future - the answer seems to be - No

HTBv3 is a stripped down version of HTBv1.

And this is against a background of US 10Y bonds yields rising.

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Jenrick is a massive property VI.

This is true

23 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

If he had any reservations about using public money to prop up the housing market he wouldn't be a govt minister, or even a Conservative MP.

HtB 3.0 will run from April 2021 to December 2022.

Qué?

23 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

TFSME (TFS 3.0) which began in March 2020 has been extended twice. The repayment term for borrowers is now ten years.

I never said they were stopping them overnight. Nevertheless, that's still BoE. Super tankers come to mind.

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1 hour ago, msi said:

Temporary blip to encourage yet another prop. 

Wake me up if there are 3 consecutive monthly falls - that will tie into the Furlough cliff edges

Why does everyone seem to think furlough ending is going to cause a wave of unemployment.. It’s not. Anyone who was due to be made redundant who is on furlough will have already been.. 

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14 minutes ago, Money Frugality said:

Why does everyone seem to think furlough ending is going to cause a wave of unemployment.. It’s not. Anyone who was due to be made redundant who is on furlough will have already been.. 

Because many people here in my view don't grasp the nuances of the economy - it is a simple cause and effect for them rather than looking at actually what is going on underneath. I agree with you, I think that the stamp duty holiday ending in a couple of months will largely pass without a blip, and I think that furlough ending down the line will also just come to pass without too much fuss. When you are fishing for anything to support your doom and gloom mantra, this is the result. How many black swan events are we currently up to on the main page? The COVID one still rumbles on despite that having been now pretty comprehensively proven to have had no impact on house prices (They're actually up 10% - a bright white swan?). They've now freed the ship and house prices have, well, yup, nothing. 

Edited by Twenty Something
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1 hour ago, Money Frugality said:

Why does everyone seem to think furlough ending is going to cause a wave of unemployment.. It’s not. Anyone who was due to be made redundant who is on furlough will have already been.. 

It is.

Id bet money on it.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

Because many people here in my view don't grasp the nuances of the economy - it is a simple cause and effect for them rather than looking at actually what is going on underneath. I agree with you, I think that the stamp duty holiday ending in a couple of months will largely pass without a blip, and I think that furlough ending down the line will also just come to pass without too much fuss. When you are fishing for anything to support your doom and gloom mantra, this is the result. How many black swan events are we currently up to on the main page? The COVID one still rumbles on despite that having been now pretty comprehensively proven to have had no impact on house prices (They're actually up 10% - a bright white swan?). They've now freed the ship and house prices have, well, yup, nothing. 

Just to set the two of you straight with an example from the "real world"; we currently have about 10% of our staff still on furlough. We have a directors meeting straight after Easter to decide how many of those people will unfortunately need to be made redundant - current thinking is at least half will need to go.

We're a small IT company (80 staff) and haven't been impacted by Covid from a profitability standpoint, however what it has done is make us realise where the underperforming areas of our business are and we've adapted accordingly. Essentially we're more profitable despite the furloughed staff taking no real part in operations, they add no value. A significant number of our partners and distributors are all in similar positions and will start to make redundancies into the new FY and throughout the summer as furlough ramps down.

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1 minute ago, Smiley George said:

Just to set the two of you straight with an example from the "real world"; we currently have about 10% of our staff still on furlough. We have a directors meeting straight after Easter to decide how many of those people will unfortunately need to be made redundant - current thinking is at least half will need to go.

We're a small IT company (80 staff) and haven't been impacted by Covid from a profitability standpoint, however what it has done is make us realise where the underperforming areas of our business are and we've adapted accordingly. Essentially we're more profitable despite the furloughed staff taking no real part in operations, they add no value. A significant number of our partners and distributors are all in similar positions and will start to make redundancies into the new FY and throughout the summer as furlough ramps down.

That's interesting as I've seen IT techie recruitment going ballistic, in the job ads anyway.

 

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