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Belfast House Prices buck 'Race for Space' Trend...anyone hazard a guess why?


Data Dave
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Was posting in another thread and found something interesting..

 

image.thumb.png.60f32e73f216117d4dac2927e7883459.png

Can anyone local explain why Belfast bucked the trend seen elsewhere in other cities? Most of the growth came in Q4 but prices remained stable/strong all throughout 2020

Graph below shows it against its peer areas:

image.thumb.png.249d7a4757b1a3ed64d98c969ed0fa33.png

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16 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'd say SDLT holiday. Not many 500k houses outside Belfast. People bidding up 500k+ houses paying 100k more to save 20k on SDLT. Seems to be what's happened in the streets around me. 

I know someone round Malone area who says that his house has gained about £100K in the last year - 500 to 600K IIRC.

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17 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'd say SDLT holiday. Not many 500k houses outside Belfast. People bidding up 500k+ houses paying 100k more to save 20k on SDLT. Seems to be what's happened in the streets around me. 

£500k+ houses are a very small part of the market.

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Do you think its risky with BREXIT not signed off by EU, Biden not happy Unionists trying to scupper it and Europe suiing the Brits for breaking rules on tariffs.  Also public sector will be scaled back down the line as debt needs to be repaid and no one in the private sector can afford to get on the ladder with these prices.  I remeber the boom in 2004-07 and then the crash could it happen again?

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On 3/19/2021 at 12:15 PM, BelfastVI said:

£500k+ houses are a very small part of the market.

True - and that's the only trouble too with 'averaged' data. It smooths everything out. Within say a county or region there will be individual winners and losers, by property type [ detached, flats, terraced] etc] and by area. 

 

On 3/19/2021 at 1:35 PM, coypondboy said:

and then the crash could it happen again?

Are you talking specifically about a crash ie the after effect of a bubble or a market correction? Do you think there is a bubble in NI now, or appearing?

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On 19/03/2021 at 12:15, BelfastVI said:

£500k+ houses are a very small part of the market.

I'll have a look at the ward level data if I get the chance. I'd be surprised if the data aren't showing a significant increase in the number of 500k plus properties sold in Belfast. 

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7 hours ago, Data Dave said:

True - and that's the only trouble too with 'averaged' data. It smooths everything out. Within say a county or region there will be individual winners and losers, by property type [ detached, flats, terraced] etc] and by area. 

 

Are you talking specifically about a crash ie the after effect of a bubble or a market correction? Do you think there is a bubble in NI now, or appearing?

doesn't seem to be for the larger properties over 400k in the sticks but not mointoring belfast so not sure what is happening there.  New houses 3 bed semi would have been 250k at the peak now 190k so catching up

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9 hours ago, coypondboy said:

doesn't seem to be for the larger properties over 400k in the sticks but not mointoring belfast so not sure what is happening there.  New houses 3 bed semi would have been 250k at the peak now 190k so catching up

Over 280K outside Belfast struggles to sell unless it’s in one of the snotty areas.  What’s interesting is the creep up in semis, not 190k in many areas but certainly 169k seems to be common.  It’s creeping up.  It’s still possible to but a perfectly serviceable house for 110k.  I can see a drop coming due to Brexit and the Pandemic.  Be interesting to see what sort of floor this puts under prices. 

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3 hours ago, satsuma said:

Over 280K outside Belfast struggles to sell unless it’s in one of the snotty areas.  What’s interesting is the creep up in semis, not 190k in many areas but certainly 169k seems to be common.  It’s creeping up.  It’s still possible to but a perfectly serviceable house for 110k.  I can see a drop coming due to Brexit and the Pandemic.  Be interesting to see what sort of floor this puts under prices. 

The Pandemic has actually increased demand and thus prices as people revaluated their living accommodation, made and are continuing to make decisions to mover to better accommodation. All the time there are constraints on supply - slow planning no new zoning of land.

Brexit and Covid together have increased the cost of build substantially. 

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2 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

The Pandemic has actually increased demand and thus prices as people revaluated their living accommodation, made and are continuing to make decisions to mover to better accommodation. All the time there are constraints on supply - slow planning no new zoning of land.

Brexit and Covid together have increased the cost of build substantially. 

The pandemic hasn't increased prices the removal of SDLT, lowest interest rates in history and lax borrow has increased prices. 

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21 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

The pandemic hasn't increased prices the removal of SDLT, lowest interest rates in history and lax borrow has increased prices. 

SDLT duty, for first time purchasers was basically free in Ni (all houses under £150k) for some time.

there have been low interest rates for several years.

I don't agree borrowing is lax.

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Borrowing has been quite tough for some time, although 95% mortgages are now available again for the first time in nearly a year, this will bring a flood of buyers to the market, desirable houses are currently flying of the shelves ie houses with a bit of space, city centre apartments etc are falling in price quite a bit, the winners are definitely people with a bit of garden,  the other factor driving the market is people moving back to Northern Ireland, having lots of contacts in estate agents there is a lot of sales to people outside of Northern Ireland 

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3 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'm seeing bt9 houses up 30% in a year. 

This is going to be very very messy. 

 

Yes, absolutely mental. I know of a mortgage being offered at 1.39%, repayment, fixed 5yrs. As long as the banks are lending at that, the market will keep bubbling.

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What’s not being taken into account in by a lot of people is that a lot of apartments have fallen in value and a lot of semis and detached have risen hugely, so although the overall rise might be an average of 7.4% some house have risen by 20+% others will have fallen a fair bit 

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On 4/1/2021 at 5:16 PM, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'm seeing bt9 houses up 30% in a year. 

This is going to be very very messy. 

 

BT9 is crazy at the moment, lots of bidders driving up prices (UK buyers moving home?) I know a large detached with a small garden was asking 1.1 and sold around 1.3 just before Christmas. Another one on this street is agreed at around a million. Both agreed very fast. At the mid range end there is currently a semi in Harberton park asking 495k with a current offer of 600k. And bear in mind this house would need gutted (BT9 standards of course!🤣) 1mil seems to be standard now in Malone for a good detached house. Crazy

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On 08/04/2021 at 16:05, BT9housewatcher said:

BT9 is crazy at the moment, lots of bidders driving up prices (UK buyers moving home?) I know a large detached with a small garden was asking 1.1 and sold around 1.3 just before Christmas. Another one on this street is agreed at around a million. Both agreed very fast. At the mid range end there is currently a semi in Harberton park asking 495k with a current offer of 600k. And bear in mind this house would need gutted (BT9 standards of course!🤣) 1mil seems to be standard now in Malone for a good detached house. Crazy

A friend wanting to move from Dunmurry viewed the Harberton one unsurprisingly didn't make an offer. It's probably up 40% in a year. Funny enough I think they said it was someone moving to England. 

I know the street you're talking about. Prices in BT9 are all the talk on the OHs zoom drinks calls. Could be the shoeshine boy moment...

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  • 2 months later...

Lots of talk last year about people moving here from England and pushing up prices. We have a bit more info now from the NI population estimates. Belfast had 2500 more people leave to GB than arrived. 

 

Between the year ending mid-2019 and the year ending mid-2020, the number of people leaving Northern Ireland to live in the rest of the UK increased by 1,200 people (12.0 per cent), while the number of people coming to live in Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK decreased by 1,400 people (12.3 per cent). This led to inflows of 10,000 people and outflows of 11,600 people in the year ending mid-2020 and resulted in a net UK migration loss of 1,500 peopl

 

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