The Times article - Areas where EU citizens are six times higher than estimated

[spyguy]

1 minute ago, shlomo said:

So you are saying that nearly 100% of EE are on bennies, 11 years ago 20% of white English kids were on bennies now that number is 50%+, do you not think this is an indicator that we are on the cusp of a standard of living crash that has been masked by Benefits, the question is after Covid 19 what is the number going to be. 

At mrs spys school. yes, 100% of EU (Poles, Romanian, Portuguese) are all on the highest support i.e. they earn f-all, doing token 16/24h TC/UC jobs.

The standard of living has not been masked benefits, its been created by benefits - see tax credit sad face.

Its not the the loss of jobs, its the negative incentivise of TCs for PT low paid jobs.

 

 

[shlomo]

3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

At mrs spys school. yes, 100% of EU (Poles, Romanian, Portuguese) are all on the highest support i.e. they earn f-all, doing token 16/24h TC/UC jobs.

The standard of living has not been masked benefits, its been created by benefits - see tax credit sad face.

Its not the the loss of jobs, its the negative incentivise of TCs for PT low paid jobs.

 

 

I do not agree with you, I think if the bennies were taken away we would hit Dickensian times, people would be on the street, child poverty and lots more  social problems

 

[debtlessmanc]

13 hours ago, spyguy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/08/woman-rejected-for-settled-status-despite-living-in-uk-for-17-years?fbclid=IwAR1HBs5yWx2JooaHUcoYDE0X2fnoANcqpBoAGZXzxC9oZgoAMG-BH_sa_Jw

Dahaba Ali, 27, moved to the UK at the age of 10. She was born in the Netherlands where her mother was granted refugee status after fleeing the conflict in Somalia.

Where on earth does it say that UK picks up another countries refugees ffs?

irony she campaigns for the3m, which now about 4m out.

And shes refused settled status as shes not been in the UK for 5 years. Shes lying about what shes been doing.

 

She is on the electoral register in 2012-13 but not more recently, obviously something fishy

[iamnumerate]

3 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

When you apply for an NI number your citizenship is recorded, it was the first piece of evidence that the ONS population numbers were b******s

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271390

the link is interesting as in the run up to the vote, the govt was clearly doing everything it could to bury the issue

the passenger survey is a joke, most EUers probably come to visit a mate, entered as much on the survey, heard what good deal the U.K. in work benefits etc were and then applied for an NI nos and got a job at his place,

I work with a total mixture of highly educated and not so migrants, many from the EU. The thing that always struck me was that if the issue came up they showed no interest in leaving come brexit. I had lunch with an Italian professor just before lockdown, when Brexit was raised, although annoyed by it, she positively laughed when I suggested she might go back to Italy. No if the U.K. suffered economically she would move to the states or Oz. At the other end of the spectrum my polish cleaner is married to a Nigerian guy and she thought return to Poland  was impossible for her family.

Turns out that the U.K. (at least compared to many EU states) is not so bad. Despite many remainers seeming convinced it is.

Then the Goverment is guility of either incompetence of hiding the facts.

 

[iamnumerate]

1 hour ago, shlomo said:

What percentage of white kids are on bennies

Children born in the UK to British citizens (white or otherwise) we have to pay benefits for.

People who don't have British citizenship don't have this right - so why do we still pay them.

(I would make it less generous for everyone to be honest).

Race has nothing to do with it. If it did presumably we would do the reverse of the £10 POM and pay Australians to come here.

Edited April 18, 2021 by iamnumerate

[Confusion of VIs]

14 hours ago, longgone said:

More people = a diluted workforce but that does not matter as the employer wins and the other tax payers can pickup the bill to pay workers a wage they can just about survive on while share holders get a nice dividend in the process. 

Yes, I don't support the policy but it was "needed" to keep GDP growing and is "needed" even more now we have to pay the bill for Covid and Brexit. 

There is no plan B because changing tack would involve losing an election or two. 

 

[kzb]

2 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

Then the Goverment is guility of either incompetence of hiding the facts.

 

This is dynamite.  Or it should be:

New estimates of UK migration from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have added an average of 93,000 per year to EU net migration from the year ending March 2012 to the year ending March 2020, while figures for non-EU migrants have been reduced by 54,000, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said today. 

Today’s report gives a first glimpse of a new approach the ONS is developing to improve migration statistics by using data from administrative record such as taxes and benefits. The new, more accurate figures replace data from the unreliable International Passenger Survey, which was the main source of immigration and emigration numbers until recently.  

The new report estimates that total net migration of foreign citizens was only slightly higher than previous estimates suggested—43,000 or 15% higher over the 9-year period from the year ending March 2012 to the year ending March 2020. These figures do not cover the period of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a precipitous decline in migration from the EU. Provisional figures also published today suggest total net migration in the second quarter of 2020 was negative.  

However, EU migration makes up a much larger share of the total in the new figures. Using the new method, ONS estimates that net EU migration averaged 216,000 from during the 9-year period ending in March 2020. This is 93,000 or 76% higher than previous survey-based figures (which had themselves already been revised upwards previously).  

By contrast, the new method produces lower figures for non-EU net migration, which the Migration Observatory has said for some time was being overestimated. Non-EU net migration during the same period is 54,000 or 31% lower in the new figures compared the old, survey-based estimates.  

Over the whole 9-year period, EU countries made up an estimated 64% of total non-UK net migration according to the new data. This is up from just 42% in the old, survey-based figures.  

[EDIT] 

In the year ending March 2012, which was when many of the coalition-era restrictions on non-EU migration were being introduced, the old survey based estimates suggested that only 29% of net migration of foreign citizens was from the EU. (That was later revised up to 37%). The new figures revise that up to 68%.  

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/eu-made-up-much-higher-share-of-net-migration-after-2010-than-official-figures-suggested/

 

[debtlessmanc]

9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Yes, I don't support the policy but it was "needed" to keep GDP growing and is "needed" even more now we have to pay the bill for Covid and Brexit. 

There is no plan B because changing tack would involve losing an election or two. 

 

Could always increase productivity, mad i know.

[iamnumerate]

19 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Yes, I don't support the policy but it was "needed" to keep GDP growing and is "needed" even more now we have to pay the bill for Covid and Brexit. 

There is no plan B because changing tack would involve losing an election or two. 

 

If immigration is needed to pay the bills etc - then why do we need ultra low interest rates and QE as well?

[IMHAL]

32 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

If immigration is needed to pay the bills etc - then why do we need ultra low interest rates and QE as well?

When you don't have then you borrow at low rates or just magic the stuff up.

[onlooker]

37 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

If immigration is needed to pay the bills etc - then why do we need ultra low interest rates and QE as well?

Because of the effect of immigration on wages and therefore on lowering inflation, it caused this period of ultra low interest rates.

[spyguy]

18 hours ago, kzb said:

This is dynamite.  Or it should be:

New estimates of UK migration from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have added an average of 93,000 per year to EU net migration from the year ending March 2012 to the year ending March 2020, while figures for non-EU migrants have been reduced by 54,000, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said today. 

Today’s report gives a first glimpse of a new approach the ONS is developing to improve migration statistics by using data from administrative record such as taxes and benefits. The new, more accurate figures replace data from the unreliable International Passenger Survey, which was the main source of immigration and emigration numbers until recently.  

The new report estimates that total net migration of foreign citizens was only slightly higher than previous estimates suggested—43,000 or 15% higher over the 9-year period from the year ending March 2012 to the year ending March 2020. These figures do not cover the period of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a precipitous decline in migration from the EU. Provisional figures also published today suggest total net migration in the second quarter of 2020 was negative.  

However, EU migration makes up a much larger share of the total in the new figures. Using the new method, ONS estimates that net EU migration averaged 216,000 from during the 9-year period ending in March 2020. This is 93,000 or 76% higher than previous survey-based figures (which had themselves already been revised upwards previously).  

By contrast, the new method produces lower figures for non-EU net migration, which the Migration Observatory has said for some time was being overestimated. Non-EU net migration during the same period is 54,000 or 31% lower in the new figures compared the old, survey-based estimates.  

Over the whole 9-year period, EU countries made up an estimated 64% of total non-UK net migration according to the new data. This is up from just 42% in the old, survey-based figures.  

[EDIT] 

In the year ending March 2012, which was when many of the coalition-era restrictions on non-EU migration were being introduced, the old survey based estimates suggested that only 29% of net migration of foreign citizens was from the EU. (That was later revised up to 37%). The new figures revise that up to 68%.  

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/eu-made-up-much-higher-share-of-net-migration-after-2010-than-official-figures-suggested/

 

I expect that, when we4 get to June and the EU registering ends and the numbers are totted up then there will be a v large fall out.

Id guess the cost of hosting ~8m mainly EUers is costing the UK several billion a year.

The cost of being i nthe EU was never an issue

The cost of inwork subs, HB and NHS for EUers *is* a massive issue that the media, to its shame, have never even considered.

 

 

[Will!]

22 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Yes, I don't support the policy but it was "needed" to keep GDP growing and is "needed" even more now we have to pay the bill for Covid and Brexit. 

There is no plan B because changing tack would involve losing an election or two. 

 

I suppose it's a terrible irony that the fallout for Labour and Conservative politicians of admitting that mass unskilled immigration since 2004 has been bad for the UK would be tiny compared to the fallout of Brexit.  Perhaps it's a nettle Rejoiner politicians need to grasp though?

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Will!

[iamnumerate]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

When you don't have then you borrow at low rates or just magic the stuff up.

But before mass immigration in 97 onwards we had high interest rates and the economy was growing.

[iamnumerate]

26 minutes ago, spyguy said:

 

The cost of inwork subs, HB and NHS for EUers *is* a massive issue that the media, to its shame, have never even considered.

 

 

We could have changed that whilst in the EU. If a Spanish woman goes to Paris and says "I am a single mum", she wouldn't get a free flat - why should she here?

(Of course if other countries had the same benefit systems as we did then the EU would have been more popular as the Mick Philpotts of the UK might have gone to Spain to live on benefits).

[Big Orange]

Hunt for cheaper labour ends up having a high price (the very high indirect subsidies and membership in the EU ending in the  stunning failure of Brexit).

Our productivity since the 2000s has been dismal for an advanced nation as well.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Big Orange

[Locke]

On 17/04/2021 at 21:04, Confusion of VIs said:

The average immigrant comes to work and earns a bit more than the average wage. 

This turned out to be a lie.

Probably is true if you only look at the ones who work, but that is cherry picking to a farcical extent.

[kzb]

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

I expect that, when we4 get to June and the EU registering ends and the numbers are totted up then there will be a v large fall out.

Id guess the cost of hosting ~8m mainly EUers is costing the UK several billion a year.

The cost of being i nthe EU was never an issue

The cost of inwork subs, HB and NHS for EUers *is* a massive issue that the media, to its shame, have never even considered.

Has this story been covered by the BBC ?  If it was I must've missed it.

Make no mistake, if this had revealed fewer immigrants than previous estimates the BBC would've been all over it.

So no fallout, just a quiet revision of figures while the DoE funeral is everything.

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, Locke said:

This turned out to be a lie.

Probably is true if you only look at the ones who work, but that is cherry picking to a farcical extent.

Before FOM and tax credits, EU migrants tended to be young (no kids) or top 10% earners.

FOM  + TC happened a roughly the same time, along with EE ascension.

Since ~2005ish, its been a disaster fro both parties - UK and EU.

By not tracking the numbers of EUers flooding into the UK esp. various refugees from Nlands and Scandi, the EU was fcked up more than the UK.

if bennies changes and access is removed for EUers then EU faces ~5m EUers pouring back into their countries with higher expectations. . And the young, who previously escaped the continent for a few years rioting and kicking off.

Even before FOM, access to the UK by French Grads and youngsters has prevented a few 1968s.

 

 

 

[IMHAL]

2 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

But before mass immigration in 97 onwards we had high interest rates and the economy was growing.

Pre 97 we had Duran Duran...now we don't and have low interest rates and the economy is not growing as fast.

You are making the mistake of attributing low interest rates and less relative economic growth to immigration. If you look at interest rates pretty much the world over, they are low as is relative economic growth. Do you think that a coincidence or can be attributed to UK immigration... just a wild guess but the GFC of 2008 might have had something to do with what the world is going through now. 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by IMHAL

[kzb]

On 17/04/2021 at 21:04, Confusion of VIs said:

The average immigrant comes to work and earns a bit more than the average wage. 

How do you know because it seems 2m at least were not even known about.

[iamnumerate]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

Pre 97 we had Duran Duran...now we don't and have low interest rates and the economy is not growing as fast.

You are making the mistake of attributing low interest rates and less relative economic growth to immigration. If you look at interest rates pretty much the world over, they are low as is relative economic growth. Do you think that a coincidence or can be attributed to UK immigration... just a wild guess but the GFC of 2008 might have had something to do with what the world is going through now. 

 

 

You could be right, maybe after 1997 Blair screwed up the economy so much that we needed immigration and low interest rates to keep growing.

Or maybe the growth would have come to an end whatever and we needed low interest rates to keeping growing.

I don't think low interest rates are entirely due to immigration although I believe that Meryvn King was right when he said that it helped lower rates.

Certainly house prices drop more when there is more supply* rather than when less - look at Spain's crash after 2008 compared to the UK.  

(More supply could be caused by less immigration or by building more homes - which is what the Spanish did).

 

[dugsbody]

4 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

You could be right, maybe after 1997 Blair screwed up the economy so much that we needed immigration and low interest rates to keep growing.

Or maybe the growth would have come to an end whatever and we needed low interest rates to keeping growing.

I don't think low interest rates are entirely due to immigration although I believe that Meryvn King was right when he said that it helped lower rates.

Certainly house prices drop more when there is more supply* rather than when less - look at Spain's crash after 2008 compared to the UK.  

(More supply could be caused by less immigration or by building more homes - which is what the Spanish did).

 

House prices are rising massively across most of the world. The younger generations from pretty much any country you look into are raging about it. The reason is near zero interest rates. 

 

[IMHAL]

38 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

House prices are rising massively across most of the world. The younger generations from pretty much any country you look into are raging about it. The reason is near zero interest rates. 

 

Yep. 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

How do you know because it seems 2m at least were not even known about.

The figures are presumably based on what was calculated to be a statistically representative sample. How do you know whether this would be affected by the total being larger or smaller