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Realistbear

Housing Market In Cool Down Mode In U S

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http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/m...0209-simon.html

With the key spring selling season about to get under way, the
inventory of homes on the market is climbing sharply
in a number of major cities.
It is the latest sign that the balance of power between buyers and sellers is shifting as the once red-hot housing market continues to cool.
The slowdown is affecting both existing homes and new homes
. Yesterday, the nation's largest builder of luxury homes, Toll Brothers Inc., reported a 29% decline in new orders in its first quarter, which ended Jan. 31. That was below many analysts' expectations and prompted a sharp selloff in Toll Brothers stock. And Ryland Group Inc., a Calabasas, Calif., builder that sells homes in a wide range of prices, recently announced that new orders declined 4.7% for its quarter ended Dec. 31.
Economists and real-estate experts are watching the inventory numbers closely for signs of whether the housing market is poised for a soft landing --
or something worse
. When inventories are tight, buyers competing for scarce properties bid up prices. As the supply of homes on the market increases, price increases slow and buyers gain negotiating power.
The recent rise in inventories follows a prolonged housing boom during which strong demand and low mortgage rates triggered bidding wars and fueled double-digit price gains in many markets.
But those days appear to be over.
As orders slow, builders are engaged in
heavy discounting and promotional activity
, particularly among homes for the second-time, move-up and luxury buyer. A survey conducted last month by the National Association of Home Builders found that 64% of builders are now using incentives such as offers to pay closing costs and free upgrades; 19% are cutting prices

Whereas our newspapers continue to spin the same old story of how, despite all the negative funadmentals, house prices continue to strengthen.

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Whereas our newspapers continue to spin the same old story of how, despite all the negative fundamentals, house prices continue to strengthen.

:lol::lol::lol:

On some US forums I regularly view, the posters have exactly the same complaint about their media.

What do they use as examples of responsible reporting? The Financial Times and the Economist.

I think it's the case the world over (I'm in Australia) that the general media is usually bullish. Firstly because most people do own and don't like to hear bearish news. Secondly because of advertising revenue from the RE/Finance industries.

You probably get a more balanced view (or at least a range of views from the national-level financial press, because their readers want to hear it like it is (so they can plan accordingly).

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:lol::lol::lol:

On some US forums I regularly view, the posters have exactly the same complaint about their media.

What do they use as examples of responsible reporting? The Financial Times and the Economist.

I think it's the case the world over (I'm in Australia) that the general media is usually bullish. Firstly because most people do own and don't like to hear bearish news. Secondly because of advertising revenue from the RE/Finance industries.

You probably get a more balanced view (or at least a range of views from the national-level financial press, because their readers want to hear it like it is (so they can plan accordingly).

You are right. I lobbied my former local newspaper in San Diego to print the truth about falling median prices and the reporter who decided to do so caught hellfire from the EAs who do, after all, pay for a huge amount of the advertising revenue. The Wall Street Journal in the US is pretty reliable as is the FT in the UK. The Wall Street Journal have a good blog that mirrors HPC.co.uk:

http://discussions.realestatejournal.com/R...20Discussions/1

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Considering Fed rates have gone from 1% to 4.5% and are forecast to go higher over the next few months, I'm hardly surprised the US property market(s) are experiencing something of a reversal. This will drag other markets down, purely on sentiment.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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