Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

5% Mortgage Guarantee Confirmed


rantnrave
 Share

Recommended Posts

14 hours ago, Jolly Roger said:

Braindead segment about the budget on ITV news earlier, footage of potential FTB peering in estate agent's window being interviewed, saying it's good because he doesn't want to pay someone else's mortgage.  Cut to media bint next to luxury flat development saying this is good for house building and therefore good for electricians, plasterers, home furnishings and removal companies.

Was that young guy an actor.

He just trotted out some vague comments about maybe buying sometime but he seemed to be more window shopping than serious?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 212
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

15 hours ago, Jolly Roger said:

Braindead segment about the budget on ITV news earlier, footage of potential FTB peering in estate agent's window being interviewed, saying it's good because he doesn't want to pay someone else's mortgage.  Cut to media bint next to luxury flat development saying this is good for house building and therefore good for electricians, plasterers, home furnishings and removal companies.

Does anyone buying a house look in EA windows?

Only people see are oaps  killing time waiting for a bus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, spyguy said:

 

Since 1920s, UK has never had a large enough of economic umpfh to run it's an j dependent currency / it policy.

UK have pretty much cleaved to US ur policies since the 1970s. Only once trying to a different policy - erm/snake, which ended badly in 1993.

US is a v unusual economy - trade is sod all, yet runs a vast deficit, funded by other countries using dollar.

EU / Europe is getting more insular/ self contained.

By the very nature of UKs economy, youd think the BoE would be wanting yo keep dent down. And force mortgages to 5 years plus.

This bit of BoE ball gazing still cracks me

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1631321/King-Nice-decade-is-behind-us.html

The Bank of England is either staffed by idiots or they simply don't get basic economics... one or the other. Used to meet with them but gave up after a while. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, gruffydd said:

The Bank of England is either staffed by idiots or they simply don't get basic economics... one or the other. Used to meet with them but gave up after a while. 

The BoE is designed to be a bank. That's.

They are not and cannot be a venture capitalists (QE) or futurologists.

Having BoE and that roving moron Haldane spouting out bolloxs is nuts.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2020/andy-haldane-engaging-business-summit-and-autumn-lecture

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/01/andy-haldane-funnyman-bank-of-england-central-banker-not-good-at-maths

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 27/02/2021 at 08:33, Si1 said:

Whatever the results of this surely this is a major vote loser. We have record unemployment. Children are missing education and going hungry. The tory party's answer? Let's spunk precious taxpayer's money on boosting house prices. Yeah that'll feed the starving.

I hope that Trump Invective is right. Even if he is then this clear intent from the govt is evil of the most cynical kind.

It's a 'let them eat cake' moment.

Sadly I don't think it will be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our offer has been accepted. It was interesting they had two previous deals fall through due to chain collapses. We are chain free and mostly cash, so they took a few percent off. The house seems very good value compared to the area. Not the cheapest on the street, but lots of others that are worth more. Nice cars in all the drives, well established, backs on to woodland, near a commuter station in a nice town where the past 3 houses we looked at went within a few days of being listed, scope for improvement which we can afford, small mortgage...very pleased.

I have given up trying to predict what is going to happen after the last 12 months. What I see is 3 more years of Tory rule in which they will do everything they can to keep prices high, or rise further. They may not succeed, but once we are in our house, I don't have to worry about it any more. If property goes down 30%, I won't care as I made more than 30% on my house in Canada, if it goes down 50%, I will be miffed, but I will be in a home I can afford and which I like. 

I can live in a house, but I can't live in a Bitcoin or a Gold bar.

Edited by HovelinHove
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Once this comes in the market will go crazy.  We will be out of lockdown, the weather will be better and people will have saved money over the last 12 months.   Suddenly those people who thought they would never be able to get a 20% deposit together will have the 5% required.

It is going to be carnage, it is going to be open house inspections and houses going to sealed bids.  

If prices went up 8% last year when we were in lockdown, I can easily see this adding another 10% to prices over the next 12 months.

For those of you who are in a position to buy but are waiting for the fabled crash prophecy my advice would be to buy now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, SurreyVisitor said:

Once this comes in the market will go crazy.  We will be out of lockdown, the weather will be better and people will have saved money over the last 12 months.   Suddenly those people who thought they would never be able to get a 20% deposit together will have the 5% required.

It is going to be carnage, it is going to be open house inspections and houses going to sealed bids.  

If prices went up 8% last year when we were in lockdown, I can easily see this adding another 10% to prices over the next 12 months.

For those of you who are in a position to buy but are waiting for the fabled crash prophecy my advice would be to buy now.

Except there will be a cap. 3000 mortgages supported per month. Not sure that will make a huge difference.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

Our offer has been accepted. It was interesting they had two previous deals fall through due to chain collapses. We are chain free and mostly cash, so they took a few percent off. The house seems very good value compared to the area. Not the cheapest on the street, but lots of others that are worth more. Nice cars in all the drives, well established, backs on to woodland, near a commuter station in a nice town where the past 3 houses we looked at went within a few days of being listed, scope for improvement which we can afford, small mortgage...very pleased.

I have given up trying to predict what is going to happen after the last 12 months. What I see is 3 more years of Tory rule in which they will do everything they can to keep prices high, or rise further. They may not succeed, but once we are in our house, I don't have to worry about it any more. If property goes down 30%, I won't care as I made more than 30% on my house in Canada, if it goes down 50%, I will be miffed, but I will be in a home I can afford and which I like. 

I can live in a house, but I can't live in a Bitcoin or a Gold bar.

Sounds good. Best of luck with it all. 

One thing that I learnt from previous moves is if you are thinking of doing work either get it all done before you move in or if it can wait, wait a while. 

Going straight into replacing kitchens etc and all the stress that involves straight after the stress of moving isn't pretty 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 27/02/2021 at 16:20, TheCountOfNowhere said:

They have been for some time.  They're not even hiding it.

Boris even said clap for bankers/financiers, they make the wealth.

Boris said severla years ago they know house prices are too high they just cant let them fall.

This is corruption and fraud on a level never seen in modern times.

WTF is happening !!!!!

we are not at the point then that the have nots out weigh the havs. 

honestly i cannot see it ever changing, the plebs just don`t resist back here they are weak and feeble. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SurreyVisitor said:

Once this comes in the market will go crazy.  We will be out of lockdown, the weather will be better and people will have saved money over the last 12 months.   Suddenly those people who thought they would never be able to get a 20% deposit together will have the 5% required.

It is going to be carnage, it is going to be open house inspections and houses going to sealed bids.  

If prices went up 8% last year when we were in lockdown, I can easily see this adding another 10% to prices over the next 12 months.

For those of you who are in a position to buy but are waiting for the fabled crash prophecy my advice would be to buy now.

Youve not seen the detail.

Unless theres a ~15% UKGOV guarantee, to get the bank loan bit under 80%, then itll have limited affect.

Its not that 5% deposit deposits are hard to get and expensive in the unlikely event you get one.

All mortgages above 80% are hard to get.

My gut feeling is this is sop for the cancelling of SD and HTVv2.

Ill add to nothing.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, captainb said:

Sounds good. Best of luck with it all. 

One thing that I learnt from previous moves is if you are thinking of doing work either get it all done before you move in or if it can wait, wait a while. 

Going straight into replacing kitchens etc and all the stress that involves straight after the stress of moving isn't pretty 

Good advice. Our rent is hideous, but we are  thinking of doing the kitchen now and renting for an extra month or so, just needs a wall moving though, which could complicate things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some more informed report from todays Lombard.

Edited to stay right side of  fair-use.

https://www.ft.com/content/41e764e1-2a82-43d3-bafd-1627baf2ce34


 

Starting next month, the government will offer to partially backstop mortgages for first-time buyers who have at least a 5 per cent deposit.

..

A shortage of mortgages is what justifies this reboot of a scheme that was launched in 2013 then cancelled within four years.

But the impression it gives is of a slightly reckless market support exercise that encourages buyers to load up on debt at a moment when interest rate expectations are creeping higher.

Last time out, the scheme was barely used — the government made available £12bn of guarantees but just £2.3bn were drawn down.

Resilient house prices and sustained low interest rates meant its help was not required.

Even high-risk speciality lenders chose to self insure rather than take state aid. By the time it was shut down at the end of 2016, it had been applied to slightly more than 100,000 mortgages, equivalent to 2.7 per cent of residential completions.

Over the same period, it had paid out against just four repossessions to a total value of £40,117. Pre-budget leaks suggest little ambition to make the new guarantee scheme more widely used.

The government has a reported target of underwriting just 3,000 loans a month.

That compares with 98,994 mortgage approvals in January, according to Bank of England data, which was about 50 per cent above the long-term trend ahead of the stamp duty holiday expiring at the end of March.

 

With first-time buyers ordinarily making up about a third of the total mortgage market, the new scheme as reported will be a drop in the ocean.

It is no like-for-like replacement for Help to Buy equity loans, which will gradually become less available from next month ahead of the scheme’s closure in 2023, having already saddled the nation with about £16bn in loans.

Neither does it deliver on the Conservative party’s 2019 election manifesto pledge to introduce lifetime low-rate mortgages.

...

(Builders) They ought to lose a certain amount of business if the policy works because borrowers with small deposits have few options right now other than to sign up for the Help To Buy equity loan — which applies to new-build only.

 

All of which raises one question: why is the government not rebooting another historic scheme instead?

The 2012 NewBuy scheme was Help to Buy’s quickly cancelled predecessor, offering state backstopped mortgages but also requiring housebuilders to pay a percentage of the value of homes sold into an indemnity fund.

A recent Barclays analysis estimated that if builders had to pay 3.5 per cent of sale values into an indemnity fund it would cut operating profit by 10 per cent — though that ought to be a price worth paying to maintain a favourable market.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, spyguy said:

Some more informed report from todays Lombard.

Edited to stay right side of  fair-use.

https://www.ft.com/content/41e764e1-2a82-43d3-bafd-1627baf2ce34


 

Starting next month, the government will offer to partially backstop mortgages for first-time buyers who have at least a 5 per cent deposit.

..

A shortage of mortgages is what justifies this reboot of a scheme that was launched in 2013 then cancelled within four years.

But the impression it gives is of a slightly reckless market support exercise that encourages buyers to load up on debt at a moment when interest rate expectations are creeping higher.

Last time out, the scheme was barely used — the government made available £12bn of guarantees but just £2.3bn were drawn down.

Resilient house prices and sustained low interest rates meant its help was not required.

Even high-risk speciality lenders chose to self insure rather than take state aid. By the time it was shut down at the end of 2016, it had been applied to slightly more than 100,000 mortgages, equivalent to 2.7 per cent of residential completions.

Over the same period, it had paid out against just four repossessions to a total value of £40,117. Pre-budget leaks suggest little ambition to make the new guarantee scheme more widely used.

The government has a reported target of underwriting just 3,000 loans a month.

That compares with 98,994 mortgage approvals in January, according to Bank of England data, which was about 50 per cent above the long-term trend ahead of the stamp duty holiday expiring at the end of March.

 

With first-time buyers ordinarily making up about a third of the total mortgage market, the new scheme as reported will be a drop in the ocean.

It is no like-for-like replacement for Help to Buy equity loans, which will gradually become less available from next month ahead of the scheme’s closure in 2023, having already saddled the nation with about £16bn in loans.

Neither does it deliver on the Conservative party’s 2019 election manifesto pledge to introduce lifetime low-rate mortgages.

...

(Builders) They ought to lose a certain amount of business if the policy works because borrowers with small deposits have few options right now other than to sign up for the Help To Buy equity loan — which applies to new-build only.

 

All of which raises one question: why is the government not rebooting another historic scheme instead?

The 2012 NewBuy scheme was Help to Buy’s quickly cancelled predecessor, offering state backstopped mortgages but also requiring housebuilders to pay a percentage of the value of homes sold into an indemnity fund.

A recent Barclays analysis estimated that if builders had to pay 3.5 per cent of sale values into an indemnity fund it would cut operating profit by 10 per cent — though that ought to be a price worth paying to maintain a favourable market.

 

 

Also

"Investors in housebuilding stocks have long understood that whatever politicians promise, the career cost from any policy that undermines house prices would be too great. It is time they shared some of the moral hazard"

(I think they're saying we should tax house builders' profits)

Edited by Si1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Also

"Investors in housebuilding stocks have long understood that whatever politicians promise, the career cost from any policy that undermines house prices would be too great. It is time they shared some of the moral hazard"

(I think they're saying we should tax house builders' profits)

About time the house builders got hit with a windfall tax. Instead of massive payouts to directors.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Also

"Investors in housebuilding stocks have long understood that whatever politicians promise, the career cost from any policy that undermines house prices would be too great. It is time they shared some of the moral hazard"

(I think they're saying we should tax house builders' profits)

Id be happy with them them picking up the tabs for the cladding.

I also assume that Persimmon will be forced to rebuilt a large percentage of the 'houses' its 'built' in the last ~15 years.

I dotn see any value in UK housebuilders - they are shit.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 27/02/2021 at 09:14, spyguy said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38418289

The Help-to-Buy Mortgage Guarantee scheme is likely to have helped more than 100,000 individuals or couples buy a home.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders said it had worked "exceptionally well", making mortgages more available when it started in October 2013.

HTBG 2013->2016. Bit naff, but not too bad. Brought in as mortgages sold were bumping around lowest numbers in history.Daft pork barrel but understandable. Be much better to force prices down by screwing over IO BTLers more.

 

The Help-to-Buy Equity Loan scheme - which is only available on new-build homes - will remain on offer until 2020, in England alone.

2016->2020 stupidest dumb fking thing ever thought up.

Handed billions to shit house builders, who built future bonfires.

Youd hope a lot of people are going to prison on this.

 

This sounds good to the dafties- BBC, personal finance journos and EAs ... however ..

You cannot magic up fixed income markets to support a lot of long ifxed mortgages.

Fixes longer than ~2 years barely existed til 2010. And they were not cheap.

The changes in bank regulation has offered a boon to people able to borrow from the likes of HSBC and other international banks who are flush with UK cash that they cannot take out. If you have to ask for a HSBC fix motgage then you are probably not going to get it .....

The likes of Nationwide and other small UK based banks - Nah. Too local, too small.

Theres nothing to force banks to offer this scheme.

The only banks selling lots of HTB were NW (too dumb) and HBOS (too bust/owned by UKGOV).

All other banks basically swerved them.

Other banks deffo dont want HTB remortgages.

And theres no detail on the price of the insurance.

If I was Bank CEO my response would be - If UKGOV want to lend to homeowners than it needs to lends its own money.

My guess is the insruance will be soo expensive that banks will say Nah.

Remember theres the furlough loans disasters around the corner.

 

I cant find an article where NW were trying to lobby to  get UKGOV to improve the HTB remortgage market i.e. take its shit lending of its book.

Banks are not dumb all the time- bar NW.

Help to Buy 'timebomb' as five-year anniversary looms

https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2018/03/06/help-to-buy-timebomb-as-five-year-anniversary-looms/

That was for HTBv1.

HTBv2 is even worse.

HTBv2 was mainly London/SE, which is even worse as London HP have been falling since ~2016ish.

Id hazard that price re down a *lot* in 2020.

 

Ok, the 5% thing is HTBv1 which was a massive flop.

The cost of tye insurance is going yo be even higher.

This is a strategic sop the HTBv2 ending.

On a connected issue.

I cant find my  post(s) over last 12 months where I said, despite the boom bs, banks are not lending.

https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2021/03/09/mortgage-commitments-soar-as-high-ltv-lending-plummets-and-rates-rise-fca/

Overall, the FCA figures showed new mortgage lending was £249bn in 2020, down by 10 per cent from £276bn in 2019

And to get this 'boost', the stamp duty relief has pulled in sales from 2021.

Sales are going to crash even more in 2021.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.