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5% Mortgage Guarantee Confirmed


rantnrave
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14 minutes ago, RJJR said:

The Times article says 3000 per month. That's not a lot at all.

"Banks are expected to have capacity to lend to about 3,000 individuals a month under the scheme. It would run alongside the government’s Help to Buy equity loan scheme, which was also introduced in 2013 and offers 95 per cent loan-to-value mortgages using taxpayers’ money. However, that scheme is applicable only to new-build homes and is focused on boosting housing supply. It is due to end in 2023"

This 3000 are part of chains so facilitate 12000 a month moves. This will have an affect.

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

I think I may be voting Labour now at the next GE.

Why?  You think they wouldn't have done anything like this?

They might not be as idealogically wedded to the concept of home ownership os the Conservatives perhaps, but you can be sure they would still have meddled with natural economic forces and tried to keep the plates spinning in some way.  'Help to Rent' instead perhaps?  Guaranteed rental deposit scheme?  Gawd knows what else.  All, ultimately, funded by money printing.

Edited by anonguest
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Just now, simon2 said:

QE to infinity sorts the first.

No it doesn't. Previous QE find a black hole in the banks' balance sheets. Current stimulus goes into the economy. Big difference. The latter is inflationary.

Just now, simon2 said:

.

That day will surely come on the current trajectory, probably when tories know they are on the way out and want to give labour a bum hand. That isn't gonna be this election though. 

 

Well, quite possibly. The bond tantrum may be this year though.

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3 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Why?  You think they wouldn't have done anything like this?

They might not be as idealogically wedded to the concept of home ownership os the Conservatives perhaps, but you can be sure they would still have meddled with natural economic forces and tried to keep the plates spinning in some way.  'Help to Rent' instead perhaps?  Guaranteed rental deposit scheme?  Gawd knows what else.  All, ultimately, funded by money printing.

Is Blairism any less addicted to property than the cons?  Can't say I've noticed much difference.

Starmer is allegedly a clone of Blair.

Just with all charisma and personality removed.  If could be described in those terms.

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We'll see mate.

Bond yields have shot up but I would be amazed if the market was not calmed by support from Fed/ECB.

If stimulus is inflationary and there is lots of it coming why not just buy a house now then? Don't forget that the powers also control how inflation is measured. We'd had shitloads of inflation already, but they claim it is at 0% because the areas where it has gone they don't measure.

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Just now, Si1 said:

You can't blame the current Labour party for the government's mistakes.

I'm not - and that is not what I said!  I simply implied it would be naive to believe that If Labour were in power right now that they would not be attempting something that would merely be to try and maintain the staus quo.

Edited by anonguest
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1 minute ago, simon2 said:

.

Bond yields have shot up but I would be amazed if the market was not calmed by support from Fed/ECB.

Please provide evidence for this?

1 minute ago, simon2 said:

If stimulus is inflationary and there is lots of it coming why not just buy a house now then? 

Because inflation will hammer house prices.

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What are the examples of who this helps? 5% deposit means you've got 10% less to spend on the property.  Secondly if you haven't saved that you're either on a lower salary, feckless and unlendable, or a new grad who is backed by bomad anyway.

So what are the real world examples?

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1 minute ago, anonguest said:

I'm not - and that is not what I said!  I simply implied it would be naive to believe that If Labour were in power right now that they would not be attempting something that would merely be to try and maintain the staus quo.

In that case democracy's pointless because you don't get to give the current lot a kicking. The changing of the guard can be a good thing for its own sake.

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Just now, sta100 said:

What are the examples of who this helps? 5% deposit means you've got 10% less to spend on the property.  Secondly if you haven't saved that you're either on a lower salary, feckless and unlendable, or a new grad who is backed by bomad anyway.

So what are the real world examples?

The target demographics of the current Tory party.

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1 minute ago, Si1 said:

The target demographics of the current Tory party.

5% mortgages are nothing new. The lending multiple remains the same.

As far as I'm aware salaries are static.

The recent HPI has come from Londoners moving out of London and foreigners with cash. Don't see how this is going to make a massive dent.

 

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39 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

Sunak is no fool. 

He knows that if interest rates went up to 5% , all the old savers would be delighted. 

And if house prices fell substantially,  so would the first time buyers. 

It's only the people who bought in the last 5 years who lose. 

(People who bought 10 years ago for half the price will just shrug. )

And at some point, the Americans will pull the plug even if sunak doesn't.  

 

It wouldn't matter if he was as his extended family can afford the best strategists and advisers that money can buy.

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Just now, Si1 said:

In that case democracy's pointless because you don't get to give the current lot a kicking. The changing of the guard can be a good thing for its own sake.

No it's not!  I honestly don't understand how you make such weird 'extrapolations'.  Just because, in the here and now, the thought leadership of both major parties happens to be that they are both idealogically wedded to the notion that they must always try to stop the tide coming in, keeping plugging the dyke, etc whatever the long term cost.....does not equate to democracy being pointless!

IF the 'system' doesn't appear to be working it's more likely because people are not engaging with it enough to get the change they want. Ask the average Joe or Joanne in the street when was the last time they 'engaged' with their MP on some matter? Any matter!  They even make it easy for you to do these days, all having websites with easy means to email them.  Voting once every 4/5 years doesn't really tell the average MP what are the things on peoples minds.

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15 minutes ago, simon2 said:

We'll see mate.

Bond yields have shot up but I would be amazed if the market was not calmed by support from Fed/ECB.

If stimulus is inflationary and there is lots of it coming why not just buy a house now then? Don't forget that the powers also control how inflation is measured. We'd had shitloads of inflation already, but they claim it is at 0% because the areas where it has gone they don't measure.

There have been no support or response from the FED.

ECB just doesnt count. Mainland Europe is disappearing up its own **** as the Euro is used less and less outside of mainland Europe and European banks retreat to their home countries and deleverage.

The FED basically sets the BoE monetary policy.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, sta100 said:

5% mortgages are nothing new. The lending multiple remains the same.

As far as I'm aware salaries are static.

The recent HPI has come from Londoners moving out of London and foreigners with cash. Don't see how this is going to make a massive dent.

 

Thats old HPI - post ~2015ish.

Londoners have very few people to sell to now. Even less after Covid.

The Londoners leaving London now - and they appear to be leaving in droves - are renters, who are jacking in rentals and legging it.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Thats old HPI - post ~2015ish.

Londoners have very few people to sell to now. Even less after Covid.

The Londoners leaving London now - and they appear to be leaving in droves - are renters, who are jacking in rentals and legging it.

 

 

I suppse BJ will connect the hose to Hong Kong and turn the tap on.  They always find a cheap fix to bodge a repair to the broken system.  Sky high prices will be nothing new to these people.  Get that printer going.  

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

It reminds me of Gordon Brown's last desperate rolls of the dice, simply hosing money at the public sector to buy their votes in the late noughties, whilst the rest of the economy lay in ruins.

Sorry, but weren't you going to vote Labour a few posts back?

In my view Dodds is just as dangerous as Brown, and marginally worse than Sunak.

 

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7 minutes ago, Si1 said:

But govt underwriting mortgage risk is.

It’s reminds me of the bouncy cheque loans given to businesses (50k self cert bounce back loans).  Honestly I think it’s nuts to use taxpayer money to prop up house prices but I’m not really surprised.  

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7 minutes ago, skinnylattej said:

Sorry, but weren't you going to vote Labour a few posts back?

In my view Dodds is just as dangerous as Brown, and marginally worse than Sunak.

 

Yeah and Brown isn't there anymore. We have a two party system which means you can't look back too far or you'd never vote for anyone.

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4 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Of these, 80% were purchases by first-time buyers, statistics showed. But housing charity Shelter said the scheme increased house prices by 1.4%.

Oh yea, we all know that having a pulse qualifies as an FTB, only framed as such to passify public acceptance when almost anyone will be eligible via some accounting trickery (or like it used to be, being mortgage free for 6 months).

 

3 hours ago, Si1 said:

I think I may be voting Labour now at the next GE.

Will make no difference, you'll get another Tory with a red tie representing the same racket. Basically anyone who looked like they might actually change the system will be killed at birth, Corbyn, Thornbury etc.

Putting our taxes at risk, to backstop lender losses, effectively subverting the regulations by transfering risks to all of us. Criminal behaviour getting priority, causing a shocking free market distortion.

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16 minutes ago, spyguy said:

There have been no support or response from the FED.

ECB just doesnt count. Mainland Europe is disappearing up its own **** as the Euro is used less and less outside of mainland Europe and European banks retreat to their home countries and deleverage.

The FED basically sets the BoE monetary policy.

 

 

The euro accounts 20% of the world's currency reserves, up a couple points since 1999. The USD accounts for 60%, down 10% since 1999. No other currency accounts for more than 5% of the market. A fully convertible renminbi might emerge as a challenger at some point in the future.

The volume and liquidity of fixed income markets are the crucial factors in determining a currency's importance as a reserve asset. The euro has been something of a laggard in that respect, especially at the short end. The support packages for Covid-19 and the Next Generation EU initiatives will add at least €1 trillion to the stock of euro denominated debt in circulation in the short term. Longer term, net-zero carbon by 2050 and the Green Industrial Revolution will require huge amounts of funding.

The euro's prospects have never looked brighter!

 

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38 minutes ago, satsuma said:

I suppse BJ will connect the hose to Hong Kong and turn the tap on.  They always find a cheap fix to bodge a repair to the broken system.  Sky high prices will be nothing new to these people.  Get that printer going.  

Not really the numbers to make it up.

And, despite the claim, HKers prosper down to being near to mainland China and operating in a v bent property market.

Neither of those exist in the UK.

 

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