8.5%

[TheCountOfNowhere]

In the worst economic downturn in history the property owning tories have pushed up their own house prices 8.5% in a year.

(If you believe them that is)

We've seen some pretty obscene things in the UK since 2000 but this is the worst, by far.

This is detached from any kinds of reality.

Worse, you can see from the graph prices increases had stalled and prices were about to start falling, so the bankers have used

the CV19 pandemic as an excuse to steal more money to lend out at even lower IRs ( soon to be -ve ).

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Si1]

It's called the 'wealth effect'

Meanwhile i am getting 'we buy any home' adverts popping

 

Something doesn't add up

[TheCountOfNowhere]

10 minutes ago, Si1 said:

It's called the 'wealth effect'

Meanwhile i am getting 'we buy any home' adverts popping

 

Something doesn't add up

If people are paying 8.5% more for a house to save 3% in the middle of an economic collapse then I think they cant add up.

Even a fall of 5% this year will still make millions of people worth off.

What can we say that's not already been said, it's a scam, it's crime, it's a pyramid scam, it's a ponzi scam, what's the point of working etc etc etc

It's beaten me for sure.  

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just has a look at property Lion for 5th Jan 2021 and it said current asking prices were up 7.85% yoy and to the 5th Feb 2021 was 8.59%.

That's skewed by London house prices/number of listings.

Interesting that it's a good match for the ONS data tho

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by TheCountOfNowhere

[scottbeard]

44 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If people are paying 8.5% more for a house to save 3% in the middle of an economic collapse then I think they cant add up.

The issue is that for many people they are saving 3% now, but only have to pay the 8.5% gradually over the next 25-30 years of their mortgage.

I'm not saying it's a good decision, but I do think that the timing influences people.

[Tulip_mania]

2 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The issue is that for many people they are saving 3% now, but only have to pay the 8.5% gradually over the next 25-30 years of their mortgage.

I'm not saying it's a good decision, but I do think that the timing influences people.

3% is max saving (500k house), but a 2-3% saving with a 75% mortgage is 8-12% higher prices. People aren't saving anything today, paying their deposit to seller rather than taxman, but are paying the rest of the price increase (with interest) over possibly up to 40 years. Crazy, but that's what's happening. 

[dugsbody]

2 minutes ago, Tulip_mania said:

3% is max saving (500k house), but a 2-3% saving with a 75% mortgage is 8-12% higher prices. People aren't saving anything today, paying their deposit to seller rather than taxman, but are paying the rest of the price increase (with interest) over possibly up to 40 years. Crazy, but that's what's happening. 

I bought a house during the stamp duty cut. I'm happy to explain why if you like.

[SurreyVisitor]

13 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I bought a house during the stamp duty cut. I'm happy to explain why if you like.

Same here, it "saved" me £15K.  What is crazy is paying rent to somebody for years and years because you are too scared to buy a house incase prices fall.  In the mean time the landlord has enjoyed you paying tens of thousands of pounds of his mortgage and watched the value of his property increase.

I purchased a house for £525K in August 2020 in a road of 12 identical houses.  One opposite went on the market at Christmas for £595K and went under offer a couple of weeks ago.  Essentially we cannot afford to live in our house anymore.

Take a look around, the government are printing money like it is going out of fashion and it has to go somewhere.  

I think for a lot of people on this site, discovering it was the worst thing that ever happened to them.

There is tons of money sloshing around at the moment being put into Houses, shares and even Crypto.  If prices fell even slightly then this money would be pumped straight into the housing market.

8.5% in a year, I suspect people can't even save quickly enough to allow them to buy the house they could have bought a year ago.

[jiltedjen]

so real assets have gone up with the real rate of inflation. There is a reason house prices are not in the inflation basket. 
 

[Horseradish]

19 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I bought a house during the stamp duty cut. I'm happy to explain why if you like.

Please do.

[Sprite]

I'm starting to wonder if the data has been skewed on high value properties as the number of transactions for 2020 must be down from 2019 although I haven't checked this in detail. I wonder if there's granular data that does a deep dive in segmentation of value from 2019 to 2020 which would be interesting to see.

Houses with outdoor space and gardens will have boomed but flats and smaller properties will have probably flattened or decreased. Anecdotally I'm still seeing reductions for flats in London.

[dugsbody]

26 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

Please do.

We previously owned a smallish three bedroom semi-detached, bought around 2012(ish). We have children now and wanted something larger and nicer nearer better schools. We both have demanding jobs in London. We are also keeping a vague plan to move to France (or another continental country) in the future. Paying £25k sunk cost to move to a new house, then discover you don't actually like the area, you don't like your neighbour, your plans change and you decide to move to France sooner rather than later was preventing us from living in a house more suited to our needs.

Then the stamp duty holiday came along and it meant we could save ourselves £15k on stamp duty. Having a larger place had become particularly important since we were both working from home and probably will continue to do so > 50% of the time in future.

At the same time a house appeared in one of my search areas that ticked all of our boxes and we really wanted it. Nothing quite as good (particularly with the right price) has come available in the last few years. So we jumped on it.

I may have paid a little more on the price of the house which in theory I could lose should we sell it again soon and if the stamp duty holiday ends and if prices revert a little, but I took the view that this was unlikely. I think we'd likely get the same price we paid, so we're better off for making this decision.

In a note of irony, we love the new area so much that we're not thinking about the move to France so urgently any longer and we may end up staying here long term. 

Worked out well for us.

Edited February 17, 2021 by dugsbody

[Unmoderated]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If people are paying 8.5% more for a house to save 3% in the middle of an economic collapse then I think they cant add up.

Even a fall of 5% this year will still make millions of people worth off.

What can we say that's not already been said, it's a scam, it's crime, it's a pyramid scam, it's a ponzi scam, what's the point of working etc etc etc

It's beaten me for sure.  

 

General prices makes no difference for a sideways move but the SDLT saving suddenly frees them of the deadweight moving house tax. 

Also, tax the extreme I'm buying a £500K house as a second time buyer but don't currently have one to sell. That 3% cash saving goes with my despite to take it from say 12% to 15% at which point I save 1% (possibly more) on my mortgage. That's over £4K a year until you remortgage, plus you're slightly closer to the next threshold for better interest rates. 

Add to this the fact that so many were for sale that there was plenty of choice (always an issue when trying to buy) that even if you are 'overpaying' many are prepared to pay a premium for something they're happy living in for the next 10,15,25,50 years.

[Horseradish]

4 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

we love the new area

Which borough is that?

[dugsbody]

26 minutes ago, SurreyVisitor said:

Same here, it "saved" me £15K.  What is crazy is paying rent to somebody for years and years because you are too scared to buy a house incase prices fall.  In the mean time the landlord has enjoyed you paying tens of thousands of pounds of his mortgage and watched the value of his property increase.

I purchased a house for £525K in August 2020 in a road of 12 identical houses.  One opposite went on the market at Christmas for £595K and went under offer a couple of weeks ago.  Essentially we cannot afford to live in our house anymore.

Take a look around, the government are printing money like it is going out of fashion and it has to go somewhere.  

I think for a lot of people on this site, discovering it was the worst thing that ever happened to them.

There is tons of money sloshing around at the moment being put into Houses, shares and even Crypto.  If prices fell even slightly then this money would be pumped straight into the housing market.

8.5% in a year, I suspect people can't even save quickly enough to allow them to buy the house they could have bought a year ago.

There are scenarios where renting is better than buying. At least according to my spreadsheets. It all depends on the mortgages costs + opportunity cost of deposit amount vs rental amount. You can factor in HPI positive or negative, etc. 

Buying is not always guaranteed to be the most effective financial decision but given the central bank policies globally, I eventually caved (years ago) when I realised the game was rigged. I decided I wanted to be on the rigged side and just get on with my life.

Before buying the first house (zone 3/4), I rented in central London and to me it made no economic sense to buy the flat I was renting at the time. My calcs said I'd be worse off.

[dugsbody]

5 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

Which borough is that?

I'd rather not say just for privacy reasons.

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, Si1 said:

It's called the 'wealth effect'

Meanwhile i am getting 'we buy any home' adverts popping

 

Something doesn't add up

#metoo ...

We buy any house on FB have cranked up ithe last fwe months.

Looking at the rising areas  NW/YorksHumber i.e. cheaper places.

Id guess this is small business cashing in the covid loan and 'investing' in a BTL.

Of course, the tenants are not there.

And the increase will reflect Summer, where its still very few houses transacting.

[Horseradish]

36 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I'd rather not say just for privacy reasons.

Fair enough. I thought borough was vague enough, heh.

[Nick Cash]

It’s the K shaped recovery in action. Large sections of working population are significantly better off financially in the short term. They are saving huge amounts and spending on long term assets. Holiday homes in UK and larger properties for WFH have both boomed. I suspect that accounts for much of the 8.5%.

The rest of the economy is really struggling. That’s where the distressed sales will come from this year. 
 

So, some huge winners but many more losers. The balance is moving towards a crash. The underlying economic principles all point in one direction.

[Wayward]

Very alarming but I am not seeing this rate of HPI here in Hants.   I will hold my nerve...falls are extremely likely through 2021 now.

Credit to TPTB...they have played a blinder and have continued to shift wealth into the hands of the established wealthy even through the worst economic downturn in centuries.  I don't underestimate their determination.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Very alarming but I am not seeing this rate of HPI here in Hants.   I will hold my nerve...falls are extremely likely through 2021 now.

Credit to TPTB...they have played a blinder and have continued to shift wealth into the hands of the established wealthy even through the worst economic downturn in centuries.  I don't underestimate their determination.

If I didn't run UK Property Lion I would be nervous but the fact regarding CURRENT ASKING PRICES is:

London: DOWN 7%

SE/SW: Down a bit

Midlands/East England: Flat

NE/NW: UP 

Scotand: Was uo, now Flat and with HTB being pull it'll be one to keep an eye on.

Wales: Glue sniffers abound

[Staffsknot]

Small 2 bed cottage on at 225k for last 2 and a bit years. Gone through 4 estate agents.

Today a newone sends me an out of the blue message with this ( obviously ripped off the other agents database when left didn't we Jess now at new agents never talked to) property now on at 210k...

Have they seen the light? Are they reducing late parents house after 2 years? Are they f!*k the guide price invites offers of 210-235k...

2 years and now a 5th agent but god forbid they lose out.

For a laugh I replied saying what does offers invited 210-235k mean... wait for it - they are really looking for the upper end of the estimate and have had interest already. Offers in the middle of that range are most likely to get anywhere.

I said so around the 215 to... interruption we think the client is looking to let it go around the 230 but might let it go about 225.

When I sounded unenthusiastic she suggested I could try 220 and work up and they could help with finance if that is an issue 🙂

honestly 2 years and they don't want less than it didn't sell for before

[Trump Invective]

i was always suspicious of the term "mini boom"

[Drat]

3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

<snip>

At the same time a house appeared in one of my search areas that ticked all of our boxes and we really wanted it. Nothing quite as good (particularly with the right price) has come available in the last few years. So we jumped on it.

<snip>

Just wanted to say this here is the reason you buy a house.  If house prices go down, you are still living in the house you wanted. If house prices go up you are still living in the house you wanted.

[Wayward]

25 minutes ago, Drat said:

Just wanted to say this here is the reason you buy a house.  If house prices go down, you are still living in the house you wanted. If house prices go up you are still living in the house you wanted.

Many people aren't living in the house they wanted? They are living in what they can afford which for many is awful and making them sick.