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Halifax Jan 2021


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Just now, dugsbody said:

It isn't just this country, it is global. I'm generally not a "rage against the machine" type of guy but these f4ckers who have sat on this monetary policy for so many years and the older generations who benefited from it so enormously while still slating the young as having high expectations and continually voting for policies that screw them further are going to be in for a shock one day. You cannot continue to exclude so many people from the system and expect them to let the system continue.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/31/imf-has-lost-plot-uk-growth/

 

Back in the 1990s, I was lucky to work at the IMF with Gaspar’s celebrated predecessor Vito Tanzi, among the most influential fiscal economists who has ever lived. What does he think of the IMF’s new stance?

“This flood of debt, inflating stock markets but not helping ordinary workers, will at some point have to be dealt with,” Tanzi tells me. “The IMF’s current position is far less qualified than it should be – I hope they don’t come to regret it”.

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1 minute ago, dugsbody said:

It isn't just this country, it is global. I'm generally not a "rage against the machine" type of guy but these f4ckers who have sat on this monetary policy for so many years and the older generations who benefited from it so enormously while still slating the young as having high expectations and continually voting for policies that screw them further are going to be in for a shock one day. You cannot continue to exclude so many people from the system and expect them to let the system continue.

We've had our fair share of disgreements, Dugs - but on this occasion I couldn't agree more. :(

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Who am I? said:

I'm pretty sure we're already there. I'm a first time buyer. I'm in my 40s. I'm only just now in the position I can almost buy something in my area. An area in the suburbs outside a commuter town that's half an hour from London. So nothing special. Not some 'high class' area. Just ordinary family homes, a little above average salary wise as we're in the south east - but teachers, builders, nurses, flight attendants etc. Just normal jobs. Not city finance level.

 

I'm exceedingly lucky in that I have six figures in savings, earn six figures and have literally zero debt. I'm not normal. I told a friend the other month how much cash I had in the bank because he told me I was looking at houses that were too expensive. I told him I couldn't buy his house. My cash savings are probably 3 times his salary. He almost fell off his chair.

 

I'm looking for a 3 bed, preferably detached, house in the suburbs. Standard middle class home. I'm in the top two percent of earners and can't afford that unless I buy in one of the poorer areas of town. And even then it's a real stretch. That's insane.

 

When someone earning in the top two percent of the country can afford less than half of all the homes and flats for sale in a bog standard middle class area then very few people can afford to buy without already having a property that's seen massive price inflation.

 

It's wrecking the country as I would like to expand my business. That large amount of savings could be used to hire a salesman and a junior engineer. Instead it's sitting in a bank account doing nothing in the hope it can be used on a deposit for a house that my father on a teacher's salary would have turned his nose up at 30 years ago.

 

Great post, welcome to HPC.

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1 hour ago, Who am I? said:

I'm pretty sure we're already there. I'm a first time buyer. I'm in my 40s. I'm only just now in the position I can almost buy something in my area. An area in the suburbs outside a commuter town that's half an hour from London. So nothing special. Not some 'high class' area. Just ordinary family homes, a little above average salary wise as we're in the south east - but teachers, builders, nurses, flight attendants etc. Just normal jobs. Not city finance level.

 

I'm exceedingly lucky in that I have six figures in savings, earn six figures and have literally zero debt. I'm not normal. I told a friend the other month how much cash I had in the bank because he told me I was looking at houses that were too expensive. I told him I couldn't buy his house. My cash savings are probably 3 times his salary. He almost fell off his chair.

 

I'm looking for a 3 bed, preferably detached, house in the suburbs. Standard middle class home. I'm in the top two percent of earners and can't afford that unless I buy in one of the poorer areas of town. And even then it's a real stretch. That's insane.

 

When someone earning in the top two percent of the country can afford less than half of all the homes and flats for sale in a bog standard middle class area then very few people can afford to buy without already having a property that's seen massive price inflation.

 

It's wrecking the country as I would like to expand my business. That large amount of savings could be used to hire a salesman and a junior engineer. Instead it's sitting in a bank account doing nothing in the hope it can be used on a deposit for a house that my father on a teacher's salary would have turned his nose up at 30 years ago.

 

 

Good summing up of the entire situation. Just imagine if all the money that has been poured into property during and after the ridiculous 2000s boom had been used for something productive like business development. Instead there's nothing to show for it aside from overpriced housing, inequality and developing inter-generational resentment.

I'm sure I remember a post on here from years ago: "High house prices poison everything".

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

It's, literally, described by the BoE as 'the wealth effect' - increased asset prices makes owners of said assets spend more, apparently.

I'm dubious of that. Furthermore I think there comes a point where the negatives outweigh the positives. 

Of course, it's suspected that a key metric for recruiting economists to work for the BoE is an adherence to the wealth effect. It's a sticking plaster on a tumour.

Me too. I think it's total ********, used to justify their money printing. The amount of money I spend is related to a ) how much money I have in the bank and b ) what it is I want to buy.  The value of my "assets" isn't even a consideration.

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49 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:
2 hours ago, Who am I? said:

I'm pretty sure we're already there. I'm a first time buyer. I'm in my 40s. I'm only just now in the position I can almost buy something in my area. An area in the suburbs outside a commuter town that's half an hour from London. So nothing special. Not some 'high class' area. Just ordinary family homes, a little above average salary wise as we're in the south east - but teachers, builders, nurses, flight attendants etc. Just normal jobs. Not city finance level.

 

I'm exceedingly lucky in that I have six figures in savings, earn six figures and have literally zero debt. I'm not normal. I told a friend the other month how much cash I had in the bank because he told me I was looking at houses that were too expensive. I told him I couldn't buy his house. My cash savings are probably 3 times his salary. He almost fell off his chair.

 

I'm looking for a 3 bed, preferably detached, house in the suburbs. Standard middle class home. I'm in the top two percent of earners and can't afford that unless I buy in one of the poorer areas of town. And even then it's a real stretch. That's insane.

 

When someone earning in the top two percent of the country can afford less than half of all the homes and flats for sale in a bog standard middle class area then very few people can afford to buy without already having a property that's seen massive price inflation.

 

It's wrecking the country as I would like to expand my business. That large amount of savings could be used to hire a salesman and a junior engineer. Instead it's sitting in a bank account doing nothing in the hope it can be used on a deposit for a house that my father on a teacher's salary would have turned his nose up at 30 years ago.

 

 

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Good summing up of the entire situation. Just imagine if all the money that has been poured into property during and after the ridiculous 2000s boom had been used for something productive like business development. Instead there's nothing to show for it aside from overpriced housing, inequality and developing inter-generational resentment.

I'm sure I remember a post on here from years ago: "High house prices poison everything".

 

@Who am I? great post, and @Clarky Cat great reply too. Im in "kind of" a similar situation as you @Who am I? but definitely not on the london scale, it's madeness. This comment your made is quite telling IMO.
 

56 minutes ago, Clarky Cat said:

When someone earning in the top two percent of the country can afford less than half of all the homes and flats for sale in a bog standard middle class area then very few people can afford to buy without already having a property that's seen massive price inflation.

You'd think this madness and inequalilty has to come to crashing to a halt soon? Even despite the governments best attempts?

Is infaltion the saviour here?

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3 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

You'd think this madness and inequalilty has to come to crashing to a halt soon? Even despite the governments best attempts?

They will stay so long as people think having a boot stamped on their face is good for them and 'There Is No Alternative'...

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2 minutes ago, highcontrast said:

 

@Who am I? great post, and @Clarky Cat great reply too. Im in "kind of" a similar situation as you @Who am I? but definitely not on the london scale, it's madeness. This comment your made is quite telling IMO.
 

You'd think this madness and inequalilty has to come to crashing to a halt soon? Even despite the governments best attempts?

Is infaltion the saviour here?

Inflation would only work if salaries were inflated as well.

 

I'm currently earning roughly the same as I would have done 20 years ago for the same work. I have CVs being sent to me for engineers just starting out who are looking for 25k a year. I started on 28k 20 years ago with a similar skillset and experience level to them.

 

But I'm not hiring so they won't even get that.

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3 hours ago, Smiley George said:

I’m pretty much in an identical situation to yourself.

Went to view a 3-bed semi, ex-council yesterday. It was okay-ish condition but needs a load of work to make it a nice place to live. Wasn’t impressed at all, but it’s pretty much the only house in our price range for sale in the area - £725k

I simply don’t understand how people can’t see how stupid this situation is.

Crazy.  Who benefits? The banks mainly.  EAs and the likes of IKEA.  But how much does this take out of the economy as people have to pay massive debts?  

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On 05/02/2021 at 20:13, GeneCernan said:

Also, if Starmer has any sense he will steer good ship Labour to being the party of affordable home ownership

Labour have never done this before so not convinced they will start now. Public sector workers with BTLs are part of Labours core vote. 

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1 hour ago, satsuma said:

Crazy.  Who benefits? The banks mainly.  EAs and the likes of IKEA.  But how much does this take out of the economy as people have to pay massive debts?  

Correct, banks and people already owning property basically.

But banks are the top of the food chain here, everything flows back to them deposit savings, BOMAD, HTB and so on.

BOMAD is the one that pisses me off the most, how can people not see what's going on - the banks are now raking in the boomers gains straight into their laps. Rather than downsize and spend some money in the local economy, that cash handily works its way back to the banksters in the form of BOMAD. They are sucking the life out of this country. And don't get me started on MEW!!

Good thing is we're nearing endgame, with the endless can kicking from GFC, low interest rates, QE, -ve interest rates and so on...they're running out of ammunition. And once the boomers start to depart this mortal coil and the young wake up to the massive injustice dumped on them, we will get change...just a matter of time.

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7 hours ago, Who am I? said:

I'm pretty sure we're already there. I'm a first time buyer. I'm in my 40s. I'm only just now in the position I can almost buy something in my area. An area in the suburbs outside a commuter town that's half an hour from London. So nothing special. Not some 'high class' area. Just ordinary family homes, a little above average salary wise as we're in the south east - but teachers, builders, nurses, flight attendants etc. Just normal jobs. Not city finance level.

 

I'm exceedingly lucky in that I have six figures in savings, earn six figures and have literally zero debt. I'm not normal. I told a friend the other month how much cash I had in the bank because he told me I was looking at houses that were too expensive. I told him I couldn't buy his house. My cash savings are probably 3 times his salary. He almost fell off his chair.

 

I'm looking for a 3 bed, preferably detached, house in the suburbs. Standard middle class home. I'm in the top two percent of earners and can't afford that unless I buy in one of the poorer areas of town. And even then it's a real stretch. That's insane.

 

When someone earning in the top two percent of the country can afford less than half of all the homes and flats for sale in a bog standard middle class area then very few people can afford to buy without already having a property that's seen massive price inflation.

 

It's wrecking the country as I would like to expand my business. That large amount of savings could be used to hire a salesman and a junior engineer. Instead it's sitting in a bank account doing nothing in the hope it can be used on a deposit for a house that my father on a teacher's salary would have turned his nose up at 30 years ago.

 

 

From what you are saying, you have as an absolute minimum access to circa £550k going on 4.5 x salary, and you reckon you are priced out? I call bulls**t. If I have a punt based on your description of areas that you are looking at, a very quick search on Rightmove brings up literally 100's of detached and semi-detached houses with at least 3 bedrooms:

 

Maidstone https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/102473975#/

Crawley (where I reckon you are talking about from flight attendants) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/101927084#/

Sevenoaks https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/99235985#/

Tubridge Wells https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/73731811#/

 

I could go on and on and on. I would not describe any of the four properties above as slumming it, nor would I say they are in poor and run down parts of town. Whether things are fair at present is another debate, but you most certainly can afford to get a decent house anywhere except Central London assuming you aren't playing make believe with your salary and savings as some on here like to do.

 

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2 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

From what you are saying, you have as an absolute minimum access to circa £550k going on 4.5 x salary, and you reckon you are priced out? I call bulls**t. If I have a punt based on your description of areas that you are looking at, a very quick search on Rightmove brings up literally 100's of detached and semi-detached houses with at least 3 bedrooms:

 

Maidstone https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/102473975#/

Crawley (where I reckon you are talking about from flight attendants) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/101927084#/

Sevenoaks https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/99235985#/

Tubridge Wells https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/73731811#/

 

I could go on and on and on. I would not describe any of the four properties above as slumming it, nor would I say they are in poor and run down parts of town. Whether things are fair at present is another debate, but you most certainly can afford to get a decent house anywhere except Central London assuming you aren't playing make believe with your salary and savings as some on here like to do.

 

You're right. I could probably afford about 500k, although it would be a bit of a gamble. I doubt I could get to 550 as I'd need about a 450k mortgage, which I probably wouldn't get as business owners can't borrow the same amount as permanent employees pulling in the same amount after tax. Higher risk of me not getting work.

I have no desire to tell you where I live or give you examples of the properties in my area, but 500k isn't really enough to get anything half decent. Believe me or don't. I don't care. No idea why I'd waste my time lying about it on a random website though.

 

We made an offer on a property at 450 a few months ago, but someone outbid us. It's still sold STC on Rightmove so it probably hasn't completed. I doubt we were outbid by more than 20k so my personal view is the vendors were stupid not to take my offer. We would have been in before Christmas and they'd have the cash.

It was an ok property. Fairly large, although very badly laid out due to a stupidly thought out extension. It needed updating and was right on the edge of the crappy council estate part of town. Apparently that's all someone earning in the top couple of percent can afford nowadays. The property would have sold to two teachers or something similar in the past. Nowadays two teachers would have no chance of affording it. Totally absurd.

 

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15 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

From what you are saying, you have as an absolute minimum access to circa £550k going on 4.5 x salary, and you reckon you are priced out? I call bulls**t. If I have a punt based on your description of areas that you are looking at, a very quick search on Rightmove brings up literally 100's of detached and semi-detached houses with at least 3 bedrooms:

 

Maidstone https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/102473975#/

Crawley (where I reckon you are talking about from flight attendants) https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/101927084#/

Sevenoaks https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/99235985#/

Tubridge Wells https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/73731811#/

 

I could go on and on and on. I would not describe any of the four properties above as slumming it, nor would I say they are in poor and run down parts of town. Whether things are fair at present is another debate, but you most certainly can afford to get a decent house anywhere except Central London assuming you aren't playing make believe with your salary and savings as some on here like to do.

 

Jesus. Just looked at the links you put in. Like I said, 550 is just outside my budget at the moment. Maybe in a few months. those houses are lovely. If I could purchase anything even close to that nice where I am I wouldn't even think twice. They make even the nicest properties available to me at that price look like slum housing in comparison. Unfortunately, for personal reasons I'm stuck living in the area I'm on for the next few years, or I'd move.

 

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5 minutes ago, Who am I? said:

You're right. I could probably afford about 500k, although it would be a bit of a gamble. I doubt I could get to 550 as I'd need about a 450k mortgage, which I probably wouldn't get as business owners can't borrow the same amount as permanent employees pulling in the same amount after tax. Higher risk of me not getting work.

I have no desire to tell you where I live or give you examples of the properties in my area, but 500k isn't really enough to get anything half decent. Believe me or don't. I don't care. No idea why I'd waste my time lying about it on a random website though.

 

We made an offer on a property at 450 a few months ago, but someone outbid us. It's still sold STC on Rightmove so it probably hasn't completed. I doubt we were outbid by more than 20k so my personal view is the vendors were stupid not to take my offer. We would have been in before Christmas and they'd have the cash.

It was an ok property. Fairly large, although very badly laid out due to a stupidly thought out extension. It needed updating and was right on the edge of the crappy council estate part of town. Apparently that's all someone earning in the top couple of percent can afford nowadays. The property would have sold to two teachers or something similar in the past. Nowadays two teachers would have no chance of affording it. Totally absurd.

 

The issue seems to be you are a single man looking for a family home? Add in a partner earning even average wage and you have around £650k. This in my view is the shift we have seen over the past 30 - 40 years. When my parents brought, my dad was the earner and my mum stayed at home with us. This was how things were. Now both people have careers, and therefore the cost of family homes has gone up significantly. You might want a large detached house, but you are competing against couples who between them earn the same / more than you, so you are onto a loser from the off. If you look to flats or smaller properties, you will be competing against first time buyers, and I'm sure you can have your pick. 

 

From having brought last year, and being of a similar age to you (early 40's), this was the key to my buying the house I have now in probably a similar area to what you are looking at. As a couple it nearly doubled my mortgage offer, and I now have a family home to hopefully raise a family in. As a single man, a flat would have been the extent of what I could have afforded, and to be honest I have no real complaint about that - why should I be able to buy a 3 bed house? 

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3 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

The issue seems to be you are a single man looking for a family home? Add in a partner earning even average wage and you have around £650k. This in my view is the shift we have seen over the past 30 - 40 years. When my parents brought, my dad was the earner and my mum stayed at home with us. This was how things were. Now both people have careers, and therefore the cost of family homes has gone up significantly. You might want a large detached house, but you are competing against couples who between them earn the same / more than you, so you are onto a loser from the off. If you look to flats or smaller properties, you will be competing against first time buyers, and I'm sure you can have your pick. 

 

From having brought last year, and being of a similar age to you (early 40's), this was the key to my buying the house I have now in probably a similar area to what you are looking at. As a couple it nearly doubled my mortgage offer, and I now have a family home to hopefully raise a family in. As a single man, a flat would have been the extent of what I could have afforded, and to be honest I have no real complaint about that - why should I be able to buy a 3 bed house? 

Executive summary: you acknowledge that HPI has vastly outpaced wage increases over the past few decades, thereby making you and your partner poorer relative to your parents, and you are delighted.

Splendid.

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6 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

And to add to the above, we are both NHS workers, not monied banker types, so very similar to your teachers who you have quoted, and probably earning similar wages.

My wife's income wouldn't even cover the costs of the required child care if she went to work so it's pointless her doing so. We would be worse off.

 

I don't know why you think I would like about my ability to buy a property or my income, but the simple fact is I'm going to have to seriously stretch myself to buy a house that I will be happy to live in, but in reality should be getting bought by someone with half my income. And not just half my income, but half my HOUSEHOLD income. 

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3 minutes ago, Deckard said:

Executive summary: you acknowledge that HPI has vastly outpaced wage increases over the past few decades, thereby making you and your partner poorer relative to your parents, and you are delighted.

Splendid.

Exactly. 20 years ago people doing the work I do were earning about the same as I earn now. 20 years ago I could have bought a 6 bed house with grounds in the area I am looking in for what I earn now. I have people applying to work for me on 25k a year as junior engineers. I started on 28k 20ish years ago. People earn less than they did when I started and yet house prices are 4 to 5 times higher.

 

I'm lucky. I can buy something. It's going to be tight and it will be, at best, an average family home. But I can do it. That's all I need. I don't need a 6 bed house with land. A standard family home is enough. But if it takes being in the top 2 percent of earners to be able to do that then something is seriously wrong.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

The issue seems to be you are a single man looking for a family home? Add in a partner earning even average wage and you have around £650k. This in my view is the shift we have seen over the past 30 - 40 years. When my parents brought, my dad was the earner and my mum stayed at home with us. This was how things were. Now both people have careers, and therefore the cost of family homes has gone up significantly. You might want a large detached house, but you are competing against couples who between them earn the same / more than you, so you are onto a loser from the off. If you look to flats or smaller properties, you will be competing against first time buyers, and I'm sure you can have your pick. 

 

From having brought last year, and being of a similar age to you (early 40's), this was the key to my buying the house I have now in probably a similar area to what you are looking at. As a couple it nearly doubled my mortgage offer, and I now have a family home to hopefully raise a family in. As a single man, a flat would have been the extent of what I could have afforded, and to be honest I have no real complaint about that - why should I be able to buy a 3 bed house? 

To be honest though, someone on 6 figures with a 6 figure deposit should be able to afford a family home. It's ridiculous to suggest that a high-earning lawyer or a hospital consultant with several years' experience and years of savings should be looking at buying a FTB starter home or flat.

The shift wasn't 30-40 years ago, it started roughly 20 years ago. Both people had careers then too.  

The other shift is that unless there's any change in wage inflation, that stretch to cover the mortgage is going to continue to be a stretch for the majority of the term of the mortgage.

Edited by Clarky Cat
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2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Now both people have careers, and therefore the cost of family homes has gone up significantly.

Yep. This is part of it. The transition to a majority of joint significant earner homeowners was first noted by home builders in the M4 corridor in the 1980s and spread far and wide after the 90s dip.
 

However, that does not explain all of Who am I’s observations.  if a top 2% earner household can only access the bottom 50% of properties, then something will give...  eventually. 

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42 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

Yep. This is part of it. The transition to a majority of joint significant earner homeowners was first noted by home builders in the M4 corridor in the 1980s and spread far and wide after the 90s dip.
 

However, that does not explain all of Who am I’s observations.  if a top 2% earner household can only access the bottom 50% of properties, then something will give...  eventually. 

But he can. I don't buy for a second that he has 50% of properties unavailable to him unless he is looking in some very exclusive postcodes, which by his admission he is not. Come on - 500k in pretty much any part of the country will buy you a fantastic house. Sure you can point at pockets of London and some other parts of the country and go well I can't afford jack all, but then that is where compromise comes in. 

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2 hours ago, Clarky Cat said:

To be honest though, someone on 6 figures with a 6 figure deposit should be able to afford a family home. It's ridiculous to suggest that a high-earning lawyer or a hospital consultant with several years' experience and years of savings should be looking at buying a FTB starter home or flat.

The shift wasn't 30-40 years ago, it started roughly 20 years ago. Both people had careers then too.  

The other shift is that unless there's any change in wage inflation, that stretch to cover the mortgage is going to continue to be a stretch for the majority of the term of the mortgage.

And someone with a six figure salary and a six figure deposit can afford a family home. I've posted some examples above covering a large part to the SE of London all within a 30 mins commute (depending to where), all of which are large family homes. As for stretching to cover the mortgage, I don't think many people are. It takes about 30% of our joint income as two middle class professionals, and is about £150 a month more than we were paying in rent for something twice the size which we are now building equity in. We borrowed pretty much to the limit of what the bank would give us too. As things stand currently, I don't think the vast majority of the home owning middle classes are that bothered. 

Edited by Twenty Something
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3 hours ago, Deckard said:

Executive summary: you acknowledge that HPI has vastly outpaced wage increases over the past few decades, thereby making you and your partner poorer relative to your parents, and you are delighted.

Splendid.

Not sure where I have said I am delighted? I don't feel poor either, but maybe there are some statistics somewhere that back you up. I'm just at peace with the whole thing, and have come to the realisation in my 40's that it's an exclusive club at the top and you and I aren't invited. So, I'm now aligned with the interests of the money men, the banks and the landed politicians, which if I did see my house as an investment (which I don't) seems like quite a smart move. I hope the fall in property prices when it happens, and it will I'm sure at some point, brings you happiness. 

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