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Halifax Jan 2021


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7 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Comments section posts almost universally see falls as positive...BBC out of touch.

Maybe. But the masses of love Island watchers probably don't post comments on BBC news articles.

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7 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Maybe. But the masses of love Island watchers probably don't post comments on BBC news articles.

Point taken but I take some heart from the fact that these articles are always savaged by HPCers...reassuring that we are not entirely lone voices.

Edited by Wayward
typo
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31 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Point taken but I take some heart from the fact that these articles are always savaged by HPCers...reassuring that we are not entirely lone voices.

true

and amen

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I said it earlier, if Rishi doesn't extend SDLT, and I don't think he will, this sucker is going down. 

Also, if Starmer has any sense he will steer good ship Labour to being the party of affordable home ownership, pulling in votes from everyone under 35 who sees no hope of buying a house, and everyone over 45 who sees no hope of their children buying a house. 

You won't see the Daily Mail readers for dust.

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3 hours ago, GeneCernan said:

I said it earlier, if Rishi doesn't extend SDLT, and I don't think he will, this sucker is going down. 

Also, if Starmer has any sense he will steer good ship Labour to being the party of affordable home ownership, pulling in votes from everyone under 35 who sees no hope of buying a house, and everyone over 45 who sees no hope of their children buying a house. 

You won't see the Daily Mail readers for dust.

+1. If Rishi has any sense and wants the Tories to have any chance of power other than by the Authoritarian playbook, then he will let the sucker sink - but I'm expecting yet another insane prop to be wielded.

 

Rishi Sunak offers more help to 1.4m firms repaying Covid loans

Edited by msi
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1 hour ago, msi said:

+1. If Rishi has any sense and wants the Tories to have any chance of power other than by the Authoritarian playbook, then he will let the sucker sink - but I'm expecting yet another insane prop to be wielded.

 

Rishi Sunak offers more help to 1.4m firms repaying Covid loans

No need to do this for 35% of these loans which are fraudulent and a lot of east europeans will be dissapperaing back to untraceable addresses once furlough ends with big smiles 'its true Dick Whittington was right London streets are paved with gold'.

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Each budget usually has a headline grabber, saved until the end of the speech. The relative silence on the Stamp Duty extension and Boris' 95% mortgages gives me concern that these will be the 'hurrah' moments we are supposed to be thankful for come Budget Day.

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Wonder if they will phase stamp duty back in, so it keeps the foot on the accelerator, might as well buy now even though there is some stamp duty to pay, or it will be worse in 6 months, that way they can take a slice of the pie on some of the now higher HPI transactions. 

 

the problem is any stamp duty kills the market as people are buying with maximum leverage on the equity they have, as soon as some of that equity has to be used on stamp duty it has an out-sized effect on the amount of leverage they can get / borrow. 
 

looking at the HPI statistics it seems broadly flat, which in real terms given the economic house prices situation is still probably 20% too high (stamp duty added 20% premium to where the market ‘should’ be) the real market is maybe 20% lower.

personally I think they will extend it. the delay to last minute served two purposes, it basically applied the brakes for a few weeks to prevent a huge bubble, while also injecting a sense of panic. like gunning the throttle and then letting the vehicle slow down enough for you to gun it again to maintain desired average speed. 

government must be losing a lot of tax with less commuting, etc. but having unbalanced Ballance sheet is good for keeping the £ down while is desirable 

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6 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Each budget usually has a headline grabber, saved until the end of the speech. The relative silence on the Stamp Duty extension and Boris' 95% mortgages gives me concern that these will be the 'hurrah' moments we are supposed to be thankful for come Budget Day.

We'll see. I'm not as negative as you on Sunak. He'd lose credibility if he extended SD holiday. And we would have heard about industry negotiations re: 95% mortgages. And his hands are tied by high national debt. Besides the housing market isn't the economic laggard here, the retail industry is.

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19 hours ago, Si1 said:

You mean 'get the property market moving again' (David Cameron)

Despite what was stated in his election manifesto.

Conservative-Party-Manifesto-2010.pdf (general-election-2010.co.uk)

"One thing is clear. We can’t go on with the old model of an economy built on debt. Irresponsible public spending, an overblown banking sector, and unsustainable consumer borrowing on the back of a housing bubble were the features of an age of irresponsibility that left Britain badly exposed to the economic crisis. Now, with the national debt already doubled and in danger of doubling again, it is this debt – together with the jobs tax that Labour will introduce to help pay for it – that threatens to kill the recovery."

Edited by Bruce Banner
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1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Despite what was stated in his election manifesto.

Conservative-Party-Manifesto-2010.pdf (general-election-2010.co.uk)

"One thing is clear. We can’t go on with the old model of an economy built on debt. Irresponsible public spending, an overblown banking sector, and unsustainable consumer borrowing on the back of a housing bubble were the features of an age of irresponsibility that left Britain badly exposed to the economic crisis. Now, with the national debt already doubled and in danger of doubling again, it is this debt – together with the jobs tax that Labour will introduce to help pay for it – that threatens to kill the recovery."

It's a recurring theme. Gordon Brown 1997:

 "I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the future." 

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7 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

Wonder if they will phase stamp duty back in, so it keeps the foot on the accelerator, might as well buy now even though there is some stamp duty to pay, or it will be worse in 6 months, that way they can take a slice of the pie on some of the now higher HPI transactions. 

 

the problem is any stamp duty kills the market as people are buying with maximum leverage on the equity they have, as soon as some of that equity has to be used on stamp duty it has an out-sized effect on the amount of leverage they can get / borrow. 
 

looking at the HPI statistics it seems broadly flat, which in real terms given the economic house prices situation is still probably 20% too high (stamp duty added 20% premium to where the market ‘should’ be) the real market is maybe 20% lower.

personally I think they will extend it. the delay to last minute served two purposes, it basically applied the brakes for a few weeks to prevent a huge bubble, while also injecting a sense of panic. like gunning the throttle and then letting the vehicle slow down enough for you to gun it again to maintain desired average speed. 

government must be losing a lot of tax with less commuting, etc. but having unbalanced Ballance sheet is good for keeping the £ down while is desirable 

Saw this in the FT. What happened with sdlt in the GFC. Interesting to see what happened .

Screenshot_20210205-185622.png

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5 hours ago, househunter123 said:

Saw this in the FT. What happened with sdlt in the GFC. Interesting to see what happened .

Screenshot_20210205-185622.png

Of course they will extend it. I wish they wouldn't but they will. Boris also want his 5% government backed mortgages too. 

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12 hours ago, Rachel88 said:

Of course they will extend it. I wish they wouldn't but they will. Boris also want his 5% government backed mortgages too. 

There is a danger in all this, at some point people will not be able to afford these mortgages.  You can only spend so much on your housing. 

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20 minutes ago, satsuma said:

There is a danger in all this, at some point people will not be able to afford these mortgages.  You can only spend so much on your housing. 

I'm pretty sure we're already there. I'm a first time buyer. I'm in my 40s. I'm only just now in the position I can almost buy something in my area. An area in the suburbs outside a commuter town that's half an hour from London. So nothing special. Not some 'high class' area. Just ordinary family homes, a little above average salary wise as we're in the south east - but teachers, builders, nurses, flight attendants etc. Just normal jobs. Not city finance level.

 

I'm exceedingly lucky in that I have six figures in savings, earn six figures and have literally zero debt. I'm not normal. I told a friend the other month how much cash I had in the bank because he told me I was looking at houses that were too expensive. I told him I couldn't buy his house. My cash savings are probably 3 times his salary. He almost fell off his chair.

 

I'm looking for a 3 bed, preferably detached, house in the suburbs. Standard middle class home. I'm in the top two percent of earners and can't afford that unless I buy in one of the poorer areas of town. And even then it's a real stretch. That's insane.

 

When someone earning in the top two percent of the country can afford less than half of all the homes and flats for sale in a bog standard middle class area then very few people can afford to buy without already having a property that's seen massive price inflation.

 

It's wrecking the country as I would like to expand my business. That large amount of savings could be used to hire a salesman and a junior engineer. Instead it's sitting in a bank account doing nothing in the hope it can be used on a deposit for a house that my father on a teacher's salary would have turned his nose up at 30 years ago.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Who am I? said:

.

 

It's wrecking the country as I would like to expand my business. That large amount of savings could be used to hire a salesman and a junior engineer. Instead it's sitting in a bank account doing nothing in the hope it can be used on a deposit for a house that my father on a teacher's salary would have turned his nose up at 30 years ago.

 

 

It's, literally, described by the BoE as 'the wealth effect' - increased asset prices makes owners of said assets spend more, apparently.

I'm dubious of that. Furthermore I think there comes a point where the negatives outweigh the positives. 

Of course, it's suspected that a key metric for recruiting economists to work for the BoE is an adherence to the wealth effect. It's a sticking plaster on a tumour.

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10 minutes ago, Si1 said:

It's, literally, described by the BoE as 'the wealth effect' - increased asset prices makes owners of said assets spend more, apparently.

I'm dubious of that. Furthermore I think there comes a point where the negatives outweigh the positives. 

Of course, it's suspected that a key metric for recruiting economists to work for the BoE is an adherence to the wealth effect. It's a sticking plaster on a tumour.

Asset price inflation  seems to make the beneficiary want even more money for the asset.

Another gormless bit of economic thinking.

 

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17 minutes ago, Who am I? said:

I'm pretty sure we're already there. I'm a first time buyer. I'm in my 40s. I'm only just now in the position I can almost buy something in my area. An area in the suburbs outside a commuter town that's half an hour from London. So nothing special. Not some 'high class' area. Just ordinary family homes, a little above average salary wise as we're in the south east - but teachers, builders, nurses, flight attendants etc. Just normal jobs. Not city finance level.

 

I'm exceedingly lucky in that I have six figures in savings, earn six figures and have literally zero debt. I'm not normal. I told a friend the other month how much cash I had in the bank because he told me I was looking at houses that were too expensive. I told him I couldn't buy his house. My cash savings are probably 3 times his salary. He almost fell off his chair.

 

I'm looking for a 3 bed, preferably detached, house in the suburbs. Standard middle class home. I'm in the top two percent of earners and can't afford that unless I buy in one of the poorer areas of town. And even then it's a real stretch. That's insane.

 

When someone earning in the top two percent of the country can afford less than half of all the homes and flats for sale in a bog standard middle class area then very few people can afford to buy without already having a property that's seen massive price inflation.

 

It's wrecking the country as I would like to expand my business. That large amount of savings could be used to hire a salesman and a junior engineer. Instead it's sitting in a bank account doing nothing in the hope it can be used on a deposit for a house that my father on a teacher's salary would have turned his nose up at 30 years ago.

 

 

I’m pretty much in an identical situation to yourself.

Went to view a 3-bed semi, ex-council yesterday. It was okay-ish condition but needs a load of work to make it a nice place to live. Wasn’t impressed at all, but it’s pretty much the only house in our price range for sale in the area - £725k

I simply don’t understand how people can’t see how stupid this situation is.

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24 minutes ago, Who am I? said:

It's wrecking the country as I would like to expand my business.

It isn't just this country, it is global. I'm generally not a "rage against the machine" type of guy but these f4ckers who have sat on this monetary policy for so many years and the older generations who benefited from it so enormously while still slating the young as having high expectations and continually voting for policies that screw them further are going to be in for a shock one day. You cannot continue to exclude so many people from the system and expect them to let the system continue.

 

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