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House Price Crash Forum

Halifax Jan 2021


rantnrave
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9 hours ago, highcontrast said:

Aren't they stuck now? They desperately want to always to show rising prices (via their massaged figures), because, you know... "HPI forever!!!!", plus they don't want to scare the sheeple, plus out of pure habit too. 

But if they show a rise/neutral...less likely to get their beloved props?

Yes they've had that dilemma for a bit now, and incredibly they've made it work for themselves so far!

 

During 1st lockdown there was a real parrallel universe of "oh, housing will be fine (please buy) once lockdown is over" and "help! we need support!" Which richi gave them of course

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1 minute ago, Trump Invective said:

Yes they've had that dilemma for a bit now, and incredibly they've made it work for themselves so far!

 

During 1st lockdown there was a real parrallel universe of "oh, housing will be fine (please buy) once lockdown is over" and "help! we need support!" Which richi gave them of course

Buy a Home

Protect House Prices

Save Banks

 

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10 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Definitely this in our areas of focus....basically nothing "new" on for nearly week across 3 search areas. Only "new" stuff is SSTC sales collapsing and old stuff reappearing.

Full on Mexican stand off.

Asking prices up 8% in a year on top of these silly prices and with no one knowing what the hell is going on.

Crazy.  

If I hadn't lived through the last 15 years I'd not believe it.

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3 hours ago, rantnrave said:

 

3 hours ago, Si1 said:

Doesn't mean a lot either way



UK house prices fall for first time since start of stamp duty holiday Chancellor has indicated he is unlikely to extend tax break after it expires at the end of March

https://www.ft.com/content/01d7dad0-c8f2-45e6-9ca0-7304df622314

24335a80-6526-11eb-ac21-173be8fd91a3-sta

HPI went up - a bit - on the excitement of stamp duty.

Unfortunately banks put the skidders y stopping lending, so prices had to fall back to meet the limited finance around.

Now we've got the god awful fall out of a ~12 months in lockdown, as people lose their jobs, LL default, etc etc.

And stamp duty holiday ends, causing even more negative outlook.

 

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If the stamp duty cut is not extended then people, in theory, might still pay the same amount of money for their house i.e. lower price of house + stamp duty = higher price of house from 2020 minus stamp duty. 

So even in a financially neutral situation (for the buyer) the indices will show falls. This will give headline writers something to work with and influence market sentiment.

Couple this with the fact we really have yet to feel the full economic impact of Covid and it's going to be an interesting year.

 

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33 minutes ago, GettingBored said:

The market is dead... Property Log is seeing record usage but the number of new properties coming onto the market is very low. Daily total reductions have dropped from 4k to about 1.5k per day.

I think we're going to go sideways for a while.

Thanks for the update, GB. Keep up the good work! :)

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