captainb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 2/7/2021 at 1:27 PM, msi said: A story given to me by a friend in the know was that as the RPI basket of goods is published - the major retailers scour through their transaction logs and loyalty card logs to look for shoppers that match the RPI basket. Once potential areas are identified - they suddenly get specific 'offers' on those items to keep the price down. So the retailers give offers for people who buy milk, eggs, coffee and bread just to keep rpi down? How many of these offers do they give out to make a material difference in the price of milk... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Who needs -ve interest rates now !!!! Their case for introducing them has gone out the window, for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 On 07/02/2021 at 13:27, msi said: A story given to me by a friend in the know was that as the RPI basket of goods is published - the major retailers scour through their transaction logs and loyalty card logs to look for shoppers that match the RPI basket. Once potential areas are identified - they suddenly get specific 'offers' on those items to keep the price down. I don't quite understand this...who is giving offers to who? What's the significance of SHOPPERS that match the basket? The ONS uses the baseline price of the goods in the RPI calculation, not special offers just given to certain customers. And no-one's shopping exactly matches the RPI basket, since it includes a weighted average of everything that people buy - no-one ACTUALLY buys, for example 0.5% of a car tyre each month, instead they buy a whole tyre one month and nothing for the next 19 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 hours ago, captainb said: How many of these offers do they give out to make a material difference in the price of milk... Most supermarket offers are funded by the suppliers themselves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 hours ago, scottbeard said: I don't quite understand this...who is giving offers to who? What's the significance of SHOPPERS that match the basket? The ONS uses the baseline price of the goods in the RPI calculation, not special offers just given to certain customers. And no-one's shopping exactly matches the RPI basket, since it includes a weighted average of everything that people buy - no-one ACTUALLY buys, for example 0.5% of a car tyre each month, instead they buy a whole tyre one month and nothing for the next 19 months. The aim is to find the ONS SHOPPER (singular) that is buying the basket for the calculation. From what I was told, they were pretty sure they had the right person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, msi said: The aim is to find the ONS SHOPPER (singular) that is buying the basket for the calculation. From what I was told, they were pretty sure they had the right person. Lol there's not one person buying a basket of goods in Doncaster who you can stalk and mug or sneak in a kit kat!!! Its a weighted basket by place of supply and good value. I.e for petrol weighted average price at a forecourt. So if 80% is sold at asda and 20% is sold at tesco its 80% of the asda price and 20% of tesco price to give a volume weighted blended price. Yes nothing is exact but its meant to be statistically significant so if it doesn't take into account the price of petrol at one forecourt in the Isle of Mann it doesn't actually matter. Edited February 17, 2021 by captainb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, captainb said: Lol there's not one person buying a basket of goods in Doncaster who you can stalk and mug or sneak in a kit kat!!! Its a weighted basket by place of supply and good value. I.e for petrol weighted average price at a forecourt. So if 80% is sold at asda and 20% is sold at tesco its 80% of the asda price and 20% of tesco price. You'd be surprised. A surprise sale on video games or shoes in Doncaster would be easy to arrange. The pool is pretty small. Not saying that Tesco communicates with Asda, as that is illegal, but they are looking for the same transaction logs and can narrow things down. If only we can sneak a 3bedroom semi into that basket Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, msi said: You'd be surprised. A surprise sale on video games or shoes in Doncaster would be easy to arrange. The pool is pretty small. Not saying that Tesco communicates with Asda, as that is illegal, but they are looking for the same transaction logs and can narrow things down. If only we can sneak a 3bedroom semi into that basket That's why it's not one shopping trip in Doncaster.. Its across hundreds of stores and scaled up for each item. For all its flaws a supermarket targeting it for abuse isnt one of them Agreed on the 3 bed semi.. Even the BOE suggests their remit be adjusted to include asset inflation through QE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, captainb said: Even the BOE suggests their remit be adjusted to include asset inflation through QE Link please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 (edited) On 04/02/2021 at 13:58, ticket2ride said: NIRP WARNING, NIRP, NIRP Banks given 6 months to prepare for negative interest rates This is nonsense with inflation coming down the tracks... the first inflationary shock will arrive via Brexit... the second via Biden's stimulus - if the berks at the BoE can't see that then I pity them. Not the brightest at the best of times! Actually, is it a perverse form of reverse psychology... let the lemming plan for low inflation in the hope they don't spot what's coming down the tracks! Edited February 17, 2021 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 hours ago, rantnrave said: Link please. Ive seen this recently, can't remember where. Something along the lines of QE achieved its intended purpose to inflate asset prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 35 minutes ago, gruffydd said: This is nonsense with inflation coming down the tracks... the first inflationary shock will arrive via Brexit... the second via Biden's stimulus - if the berks at the BoE can't see that then I pity them. Not the brightest at the best of times! Actually, is it a perverse form of reverse psychology... let the lemming plan for low inflation in the hope they don't spot what's coming down the tracks! They wont raise rates, they're calling it temporary inflation (permanent price rises though). They've already stated this. They'll go negative to support their asset prices and hell be damned. Money will be worthless but they'll hold all the assets. They simply don't care. Bankers have done this several times throughout history now. Itll have the same finale, hungry people getting angry, turning on each other while they live it up on they're islands. Id not have believed what i am witnessing had i not lived through it. Best case imho now is some sort of housing correction over the next 18 months as reality hits. Stock market big kahuna. Best position yourself to buy any house and invest everything at short notice. If prices keep going up, i plan to buy foreign currency and more gold. Ive been liquidating bonds as they've expired, cashing in isas etc in preperation. We are at the end game now, best prepare yourself i say. The central bankers clearly won't stop now. The politicians won't make them. Take a step back and think what that means. The devaluation of your wages abd savings in favour of assets will not stop, even of there is a minor correction. Look who they've put in charge of the countries finances. A bigger stooge I've never seen. Ex GS banker now in charge of the BBC too. Dunno how much of a hint people need. THE BANKERS ARE RUNNING THE SHOW AT IT ONLY ENDS WITH THEM HAVING EVERYTHING WBD YOU WITH NOTHING. I CAN ASSURE YOU, YOU WON'T BE HAPPY. Sunaks budgets in a couple of weeks so we'll know for sure how tge next 4 years is going to go. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 hours ago, gruffydd said: This is nonsense with inflation coming down the tracks... the first inflationary shock will arrive via Brexit... the second via Biden's stimulus - if the berks at the BoE can't see that then I pity them. Not the brightest at the best of times! Actually, is it a perverse form of reverse psychology... let the lemming plan for low inflation in the hope they don't spot what's coming down the tracks! Not sure Brexit will cause an inflationary shock. The exchange rate pass through happened in 2016-2017. Since March last year the pound is up over 20% versus the dollar. Imports will likely have a lower cost in gbp so there's lower or even negative inflation for a time. Biden's stimulus will weaken the usd further. Not sure the BoE are the total Muppets you believe them to be. Their only issue is they aren't in charge of what goes into the indices used to measure inflation. I'm expecting NIRP or ZIRP for a couple of years at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doomed Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 We are going to have hyperinflation and those in charge actually want it as it erases the debt problem the West can't escape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 There seems to be a general consensus amongst central bankers that money is now a fairly plastic item. Fire up the printy printy and get the party going, then increase tax on the punch if the party gets out of control. We may be well into the printy printy Part of the Party. The problem is that too much money has been created, people may not be able to afford the entrance fee, let alone the punch or nibbles. Party for some coming, pity about the others, let them eat cake comes to mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 hours ago, adarmo said: Not sure Brexit will cause an inflationary shock. The exchange rate pass through happened in 2016-2017. Since March last year the pound is up over 20% versus the dollar. Imports will likely have a lower cost in gbp so there's lower or even negative inflation for a time. Biden's stimulus will weaken the usd further. Not sure the BoE are the total Muppets you believe them to be. Their only issue is they aren't in charge of what goes into the indices used to measure inflation. I'm expecting NIRP or ZIRP for a couple of years at least. It will cause an inflationary spike, of that I have no doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: They wont raise rates, they're calling it temporary inflation (permanent price rises though). They've already stated this. They'll go negative to support their asset prices and hell be damned. Money will be worthless but they'll hold all the assets. They simply don't care. Bankers have done this several times throughout history now. Itll have the same finale, hungry people getting angry, turning on each other while they live it up on they're islands. Id not have believed what i am witnessing had i not lived through it. Best case imho now is some sort of housing correction over the next 18 months as reality hits. Stock market big kahuna. Best position yourself to buy any house and invest everything at short notice. If prices keep going up, i plan to buy foreign currency and more gold. Ive been liquidating bonds as they've expired, cashing in isas etc in preperation. We are at the end game now, best prepare yourself i say. The central bankers clearly won't stop now. The politicians won't make them. Take a step back and think what that means. The devaluation of your wages abd savings in favour of assets will not stop, even of there is a minor correction. Look who they've put in charge of the countries finances. A bigger stooge I've never seen. Ex GS banker now in charge of the BBC too. Dunno how much of a hint people need. THE BANKERS ARE RUNNING THE SHOW AT IT ONLY ENDS WITH THEM HAVING EVERYTHING WBD YOU WITH NOTHING. I CAN ASSURE YOU, YOU WON'T BE HAPPY. Sunaks budgets in a couple of weeks so we'll know for sure how tge next 4 years is going to go. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. The Fed is right to be worried about inflation. Supply chains are ******* up the world over... from logistics to production. It's very clear what comes next... inflation hitting 4% this coming autumn, if we're lucky. All bets are off as far as I'm concerned. The Fed is right to be worried. The trends are already there... https://www.cityam.com/us-braces-for-higher-inflation-amid-pandemic-recovery-warns-fed/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, gruffydd said: It will cause an DELIBERATE inflationary spike, of that I have no doubt. The same thing happened around 2010, 5% inflation, just ignored by the thieving bankers. At least then some bonds were offering 5% so was less of an issue. How is everyone's wage growth since 2007 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
14stFlyer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, satsuma said: We may be well into the printy printy Part of the Party. The problem is that too much money has been created, people may not be able to afford the entrance fee, let alone the punch or nibbles. Party for some coming, pity about the others, let them eat cake comes to mind. The inflation party was a bit boring to start with, so they opened up the free bar. Unfortunately, as well as getting a pint at the free bar, most of the party goers also bought a bottle of whisky for later. 🥃. By the time the free bar is closed, the post-party inflation hangover will be a certainty. Edited February 18, 2021 by 14stFlyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said: The inflation party was a bit boring to start with, so they opened up the free bar. Unfortunately, as well as getting a pint at the free bar, most of the party goers also bought a bottle of whisky for later. 🥃. By the time the free bar is closed, the post-party inflation hangover will be a certainty. The blokes running the bar either dont drink or are on drugs, no hangover for them Edited February 18, 2021 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 hours ago, gruffydd said: It will cause an inflationary spike, of that I have no doubt. Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 18 hours ago, msi said: The aim is to find the ONS SHOPPER (singular) that is buying the basket for the calculation. From what I was told, they were pretty sure they had the right person. Why would the Office for National Statistics actually BUY the goods, when they could just look up the prices on Tesco's website and type them into the calculation?! Don't forget that the basket includes EVERYTHING that people buy as a consumable good or service, not just food shopping. For example, it includes lawnmowers, care home fess, long-haul air flights, Mortgage arrangement fees etc etc Do you really think the ONS actually BUY 12 lawnmowers a year, and take out 12 mortgages etc etc just to get the pricing data? It makes no sense. Yes I'm sure if you analyse the shopping baskets of all 5 million Tesco shoppers each month by coincidence one will be very close to the ONS shopping basket, but that's a different story. As Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy states, an infinite number of monkeys with an infinite number of typewriters will eventually type out the complete works of Shakespeare... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 When Covid is over the real party gets started, when people suddenly feel able to spend all the stimulus is going to come roaring back with a vengeance They will 'look through' temporary 5% inflation for a 'short time' (forever). Inflation is a funny thing, nothing happens in ages and then suddenly happens all at once, its already too late if your mostly in cash and not assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Yes I'm sure if you analyse the shopping baskets of all 5 million Tesco shoppers each month by coincidence one will be very close to the ONS shopping basket, but that's a different story. As Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy states, an infinite number of monkeys with an infinite number of typewriters will eventually type out the complete works of Shakespeare... Like I said, it was told to me by someone I wouldn't think have any reason to spin a yarn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, msi said: Like I said, it was told to me by someone I wouldn't think have any reason to spin a yarn. Like I said, they may not be deliberately lying but they are still mistaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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