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What London’s falling population means for the housing market - how will this affect rental and sale prices? - FT


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8 hours ago, sammersmith said:

The rental market in London needs to feel the pain. For far too long letting agents have been so cocky that they can treat tenants how they want and advertise any old crap for top money and still a wall of people will climb over each other to take it.

For the individual renting in London it is hell. I left London, where i was born, and was amazed that elsewhere I had real choice and could dictate terms to the LA. It's a much more balanced relationship between tenant and landlord/LA outside London. True that S21 can still be applied to tenants nationwide, however very few LL outside of London would risk kicking a paying tenant out. They don't have the confidence that tenants can be replaced. Hopefully London landlords will start to feel some of that insecurity too.

Nah, until Covid/Brexit and Uni`s building lots of their own accommodation most landlords not in the middle of a field were pretty sure of being able to replace tenants, the rub in London was the expectation that people would pay two and three times the amount of a similar hovel in Glasgow/Manchester/Birmingham.

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

The way we work and learn, where we travel, how we travel, where we live, and how we live where we are living is in the process of change.....;)

Blue sky thinking and high ideas often fall at the reality of legal requirements, borders and red tape.  All of which have just become a big issue.  

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16 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Let me just add one final point: if the future belongs to green cities, smart cities or whatever you want to call them, places like London, Paris, NY have no future at all, unless they are rebuilt again from a white sheet of paper. But that’s going to cost a fortune and will take several decades and, if I may say, we still need to see if Londoners eg are willing to pay several billions pounds just to build cycle lanes and a greener tube. 

The advantage London has over many other cities on earth is that it has more green space.  A bit of imagination could improve on that also. 

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/cities-with-the-most-greenspace.html

Many cities on this list appear to be better than London but most of them have just about everybody living in concrete multi-storey  flats so no back gardens to add to the mix and a lot depends on where they draw the line around the city limits. 

 

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10 hours ago, shlomo said:

I think the problem with this forum is we are housing centric, that many people leaving will have a significant impact on food sales, restaurants, leisure activities when Covid ends The London economy will be 30% lower I do not accept the FT numbers I think the actual number is much bigger 

I think the numbers may be much higher as many illegals reside in in London and they wouldn't have got any furlough or any other support. 

I think long term London will recover as unemployment in other parts of the country will migrate to cities like London for work. 

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5 hours ago, satsuma said:

To be fair you cant say the way people feel is not the way they feel.  

Agreed

But like wise you cannot always believe everything people say especially when were talking about a generalisation like this.  

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27 minutes ago, Sprrite said:

I think the numbers may be much higher as many illegals reside in in London and they wouldn't have got any furlough or any other support. 

I think long term London will recover as unemployment in other parts of the country will migrate to cities like London for work. 

It is not getting to recover, the things that made London are not in place due to circumstances, the goose the laid the golden eggs has been killed

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All Empires rise and fall.

The British Empire began to falter before the First World War and has been slowly sinking ever since.

Just like Cairo, Athens, Rome, London will wither away from its present position because we have simply become soft as the Romans became.

Try reading contemporary books written before WW1 and you soon realise that the essential toughness in the male population and the family protecting, care, and binding togetherness of the female population has just about gone.

Men nurtured  the country and women nurtured the families.

That pattern of family and national life had been the norm for millennia.

Same in the USA and Western Europe.

Mostly gone now.

China and India and Russia step forward it's your turn now.

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13 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

I need to see some articles from London leavers who moved to t'country and found they hated it (or it hated them, just as likely). Also some priced out country folk bemoaning the influx of city rats. 

IMO London's been a desirable location since before the Romans were orgying around. This is just another cycle, but one that some people will be well advised to take advantage of. 

How long do you reckon we have to take advantage? I'm hoping 2 years+ or so.

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50 minutes ago, Byron said:

China and India and Russia step forward it's your turn now.

China, on the outside, I will concur they seem to  be doing the right thing to pull ahead.

India ? They have a highish growth, but for the most populous country on earth, far from pulling their weight and far from being a united country that could pull ahead. 

Russia? wtf, is there one thing this country is doing right at the moment?

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1 hour ago, ebull said:

How long do you reckon we have to take advantage? I'm hoping 2 years+ or so.

Not long 7.5 million HK Chinese have permission from UK to apply for the new passports from the end of this month and with he avaergae studio flat over their at 900,000 us dollars and plenty of mainland chinese looking to buy as 2nd homes as hong kong is turned into a holiday resort thats a lot of money heading to the London property market. 

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5 hours ago, Byron said:

All Empires rise and fall.

The British Empire began to falter before the First World War and has been slowly sinking ever since.

Just like Cairo, Athens, Rome, London will wither away from its present position because we have simply become soft as the Romans became.

Try reading contemporary books written before WW1 and you soon realise that the essential toughness in the male population and the family protecting, care, and binding togetherness of the female population has just about gone.

Men nurtured  the country and women nurtured the families.

That pattern of family and national life had been the norm for millennia.

Same in the USA and Western Europe.

Mostly gone now.

China and India and Russia step forward it's your turn now.

Offshore treasure is still leverage for the UK

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8 hours ago, Byron said:

All Empires rise and fall.

The British Empire began to falter before the First World War and has been slowly sinking ever since.

Just like Cairo, Athens, Rome, London will wither away from its present position because we have simply become soft as the Romans became.

Try reading contemporary books written before WW1 and you soon realise that the essential toughness in the male population and the family protecting, care, and binding togetherness of the female population has just about gone.

Men nurtured  the country and women nurtured the families.

That pattern of family and national life had been the norm for millennia.

Same in the USA and Western Europe.

Mostly gone now.

China and India and Russia step forward it's your turn now.

Success attracts failure.

Up to the early/mid 80s the pop of London had been falling all the way from end of WW2.

Come big bang and the finsec came in, employing 1000s at v high salaries.

So, the young n upwardly mobile poured in, followed bt the Europeans, who were followed by the unemployable from much further afield who the needs based based benefit system and LAs were only too happy to house, at the the very high cost to UK taxpayers, in West London.

The Day After Tomorrow  piccies from summer:

_111328716_060674683.jpg

Are down to London working population no longer living in London.

 

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/renting/london-renters-expected-to-increase-by-122-per-cent-in-next-decade-a135796.html

Private renters now account for 30 per cent of all households in London, which equates roughly to 2.7 million tenants, according to a new study by CBRE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_London

At the 2011 census, London had a population of 8,173,941. Of this number 44.9% were White British. 37% of the population were born outside the UK, including 24.5% born outside of Europe.[2]

2011 was a looooong time ago,in terms of UK migrations.

 

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9 hours ago, Byron said:

All Empires rise and fall.

The British Empire began to falter before the First World War and has been slowly sinking ever since.

Just like Cairo, Athens, Rome, London will wither away from its present position because we have simply become soft as the Romans became.

Try reading contemporary books written before WW1 and you soon realise that the essential toughness in the male population and the family protecting, care, and binding togetherness of the female population has just about gone.

Men nurtured  the country and women nurtured the families.

That pattern of family and national life had been the norm for millennia.

Same in the USA and Western Europe.

Mostly gone now.

China and India and Russia step forward it's your turn now.

The Khaldunian cycle.

If so then to have had such a long Empire the UK has had periods of renewal and adaptation to renew its Asabiyyah.

For example the amazing contrast between periods of our history like the decadent Georgian period compared to the more straight laced Victorians.

Current political camps make this a very interesting time when we can almost see this play out before our eyes.  

For example are Brexity people the individualist fictionists with the two factions seemingly overlapping on issues such as identity politics and sexual identity.   

Or are they the Barbarians asserting a more traditional identity with a view that this will leave the country in a more cohesive state to fight the economic and possibly literal wars to come.


 

 

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1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said:

The Khaldunian cycle.

If so then to have had such a long Empire the UK has had periods of renewal and adaptation to renew its Asabiyyah.

For example the amazing contrast between periods of our history like the decadent Georgian period compared to the more straight laced Victorians.

Current political camps make this a very interesting time when we can almost see this play out before our eyes.  

For example are Brexity people the individualist fictionists with the two factions seemingly overlapping on issues such as identity politics and sexual identity.   

Or are they the Barbarians asserting a more traditional identity with a view that this will leave the country in a more cohesive state to fight the economic and possibly literal wars to come.


 

 

Well it's really all speculation, but my gut feeling is that with the enormous loss of talent the UK experienced between 1914 and 1918, bearing in mind that conscription only began in 1916 meant that mainly the fittest and brightest were removed from the gene pool.

This left noticeable age gaps in the workforce that existed until the 1960s.

The capable leadership was just not available.

This effect was felt throughout Europe.

Consequently a softer easy approach to life took hold of the popular will and still exerts it influence to the present day.

What I feel rather than can prove is that the dynamic that existed for centuries has gone.

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10 hours ago, ebull said:

How long do you reckon we have to take advantage? I'm hoping 2 years+ or so.

IDK that seems like a long time. London is where rich foreigners have been ferreting their ill-gotten gains for donkey’s years. We’re a pleasant, safe, green, architecturally interesting laundering operation. 

Since many major economies seem highly intent on inflating their covid debt away, it would be reasonable to think that some of this magic money will need a safe home. And London is a good one. It’s easy enough to monitor the prime areas and follow their lead. 

A lot depends on what the HKers do (has anyone asked them where they plan to live? I read one article from a family who have already moved to York. And then there’s the question of BoE rate going neg. So many factors. 

Know your areas inside out, get all your ducks in a row, be nice and chatty to agents (you can fake it). And then sacrifice a goat :D 

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1 hour ago, Byron said:

Well it's really all speculation, but my gut feeling is that with the enormous loss of talent the UK experienced between 1914 and 1918, bearing in mind that conscription only began in 1916 meant that mainly the fittest and brightest were removed from the gene pool.

This left noticeable age gaps in the workforce that existed until the 1960s.

If not necessarily removed from the gene pool, then certainly cowed and traumatised for many decades, so the UK from the WW2 onwards went into a slow, gradual remission as a dominant military and economic power.

 

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18 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

If not necessarily removed from the gene pool, then certainly cowed and traumatised for many decades, so the UK from the WW2 onwards went into a slow, gradual remission as a dominant military and economic power.

 

Burdened by US 'debts that weren't paid off until 2006 and a shift from Sterling to the USD as the Global currency.  Suez was was the last flicker of UK strength with the Falklands being a sideshow.

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1 hour ago, Byron said:

Well it's really all speculation, but my gut feeling is that with the enormous loss of talent the UK experienced between 1914 and 1918, bearing in mind that conscription only began in 1916 meant that mainly the fittest and brightest were removed from the gene pool.

This left noticeable age gaps in the workforce that existed until the 1960s.

The capable leadership was just not available.

This effect was felt throughout Europe.

Consequently a softer easy approach to life took hold of the popular will and still exerts it influence to the present day.

What I feel rather than can prove is that the dynamic that existed for centuries has gone.

Interesting that something that happened 100 odd years ago still has an impact, thank god for kaiser or the whole world would be painted imperial red

 

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1 hour ago, Big Orange said:

If not necessarily removed from the gene pool, then certainly cowed and traumatised for many decades, so the UK from the WW2 onwards went into a slow, gradual remission as a dominant military and economic power.

 

Shell shock.;)

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1 hour ago, msi said:

Burdened by US 'debts that weren't paid off until 2006 and a shift from Sterling to the USD as the Global currency.  Suez was was the last flicker of UK strength with the Falklands being a sideshow.

Also have UK companies assume a management strategy that eventually ends up with UK's economic landscape since the mid 2000s to resemble the Permian Great Dying....

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4 hours ago, Big Orange said:

Also have UK companies assume a management strategy that eventually ends up with UK's economic landscape since the mid 2000s to resemble the Permian Great Dying....

Post of the day!

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1 hour ago, msi said:

Post of the day!

Thank you.

Although a simplified story for the UK's economic standing it was never a viable survival strategy, after 30 to 40 years, to keep allowing UK corporate and industrial units to crumble away or be subverted by more efficient/ambitious overseas companies.

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