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House Price Crash Forum

Does it feel like the end to you?


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Just remember there is no such thing as 'what you are willing to pay for the property and what you think it is worth'. I have seen this said on the forum many times and it makes me chuckle (there is a lot more to it behind the scenes). 

At the end of the day, central bankers control how much house prices (assets) are 'worth' through issue of credit (debt) to ensure the wealth effect and living standards of the baby boomers are maintained at the expense of the younger generation. Wages and house prices were disconnected in 1998 (left wing cannot moan about high house prices caused by Tony Blair and his policies! ). Now there is a divide of wealth between the rich and poor, young and old, working class and upper class (middle class being slowly wiped out). 

Simple formula to understand, being:

House prices = household income + mortgage rates + supply/demand

Household income likely not to change much due to covid. Public sector having pay freezes and heavy job losses and no or low rises in the private sector. Also, the threat of tax increases to pay for covid and baby boomers pensions. 

Mortgage rates (base rate plus risk premium) are manipulated by the central bankers as they have reduced the base rate to 0.1% and reduce the lenders risk (premium) by buying mortgage backed bonds (lenders offloading the riskier bonds to central bankers). Will we see the base rate go negative? Will we see central bankers buy even more riskier mortgage backed securities and hold them on their balance sheets? 

Supply/demand - It is well known there is a under supply of housing coupled with high demand (no stamp duty at mo and baby boomers buying up first time buyers properties for BTL  resulting in major price increases at the other end of the housing scale). Also, in my area, baby boomers are blocking all housing developments further restricting supply and they moan that the younger generation has been 'social cleansed' out of the area and their children are now living 50-100 miles away - I wonder why?......Demand will remain high and supply restricted. We will likely see build to rent sector overtake houses for sale sector. 

Government are slowly setting to scene 'build back better', 'global reset', 'UN agenda 2030' whatever you want to call it 'you own nothing and be happy' - the new business model is the rental model. Some well known companies offer furniture for rent now for passive income!

The new property business model will be build to rent fully supported by the Government. The government does not care about the small BTLer retail investor. Over the last couple of years, there has been alot of institutional investors (pension funds etc) registering as Social Landlords (rents will be controlled) for build to rent instead of local authorities as they can not afford to fund and build. Pension funds need to find income from somewhere as the bond market is effectively 'dead' and stocks are risky (globals market having the highest P/E ratio in its history). Passive income from renting will pay for future pensions coupled tax from the employed (rich or the lucky 1s who will have a job in the future!).

As stated by the Bank of England (2019), 1% increase in 'real' interest rates will cause 20% drop in house prices. With the increase in the money supply (due to money printing), holders with high value mortgages will not have to keep a eye on inflation but we all know Interest rates will never go up as there is too much debt in the system (common sense). Central bankers will target unemployment rate and not inflation.

The system reset is the rental model (property and EV cars etc) and the use of MMT with tax controlling inflation and not by interest rates. Interest rates will never go up. State pensions must likely be replaced by workplace pensions and universal basic income paid to all (paid for by money printing and recovered by taxes). The Bank of England will join the HM treasury so no more government borrowing, just money printing (the are effectively doing that now). 

Just look at the main market indicators now and it provides the evidence that the system is close to the end. The end game is near but when? Do you want to be the last person to the party? Do you want to keep dancing at the party until the music stops? 

IMO, keep dancing because the music will not stop just yet but when it does it will be sudden. Buy a house now as it will be one of your only chances these coming years and blame baby boomers and left wing policies on the forced move towards socialism and eventually communism which we once feared many years ago. Free market capitalism has been dead for a while. 

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21 minutes ago, Rachel88 said:

O

My name is Rachel not Rachael. I said people from all ethnic backgrounds voted for Trump, the graph you sent proves it. Whether less people voted for him from ethnic backgrounds is irrelevant to the fact that people still, call him racist, when he has supporters from all ethnic groups. 

Rachel it is possible to be racist and have people vote for you of that ethnic group.

Deeds prove it not who likes you.

Lots of people thought Aung San Suu Kyi was great and worked tirelessly to get her freedom - turns out she's a Buddhist nationalist and not bothered one bit about the Rohinga. Go figure

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Just now, Staffsknot said:

You mean like telling anyone who disagrees with you they are lefty loonies kind of rant?

He didn't want interest rates raising he public rebuked Powell numerous times for suggesting it - but he's rewriting that bit of history like Toby Young on steroids.

Now the assertion he has Black, Hispanic, Latino, Indian or other ethnic voters is an endorsement against racism? People reaching a certain wealth threshold experience it less so it is less of a sticking point for them - do all white people vote for one party or a myriad? 

There is also the concept of single issues for a given group taking centre stage - for instance many Cuban exile families are pro Trump simply because he undid Obama's thaw in relations.

There's your nuance your friend didn't provide.

Now I'm not looking to start a fight here but you can't claim you don't just nod things through and then just reiterate easily disprovable things Trump says as facts either.

If you read the article I uploaded it says he wanted them raised. I'd always assumed he wanted them higher. I dont stalk the guy. 

The good news is the FED did not lower interest rates and kept them at 2%. If you read the article uploaded for me by someone else, it discusses low interest rates and recession, the predicament the UK is in right now. 

Everything else you have written is rubbish.

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Just now, Staffsknot said:

Rachel it is possible to be racist and have people vote for you of that ethnic group.

Deeds prove it not who likes you.

Lots of people thought Aung San Suu Kyi was great and worked tirelessly to get her freedom - turns out she's a Buddhist nationalist and not bothered one bit about the Rohinga. Go figure

So are are these people racist voting for a racist? even though they know he's a racist.

To me it's a very good indication that he is not racist.

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11 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

You mean like telling anyone who disagrees with you they are lefty loonies kind of rant?

He didn't want interest rates raising he public rebuked Powell numerous times for suggesting it - but he's rewriting that bit of history like Toby Young on steroids.

Now the assertion he has Black, Hispanic, Latino, Indian or other ethnic voters is an endorsement against racism? People reaching a certain wealth threshold experience it less so it is less of a sticking point for them - do all white people vote for one party or a myriad? 

There is also the concept of single issues for a given group taking centre stage - for instance many Cuban exile families are pro Trump simply because he undid Obama's thaw in relations.

There's your nuance your friend didn't provide.

Now I'm not looking to start a fight here but you can't claim you don't just nod things through and then just reiterate easily disprovable things Trump says as facts either.

Thank you for posting.  Saved me a post.  Who the heck is Rachel without an 'A'? 😳🤣

I've never silenced a poster but the time is creeping closer but I do like being 'amused' so this may win out.

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2 minutes ago, Rachel88 said:

So are are these people racist voting for a racist? even though they know he's a racist.

To me it's a very good indication that he is not racist.

😂

 

You posted that you went to university. It might be an idea to apply the critical thinking skills you were taught and re-post, regardless of your ideology. I won't get into that.  Time is too precious.

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10 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Rachel it is possible to be racist and have people vote for you of that ethnic group.

Deeds prove it not who likes you.

Lots of people thought Aung San Suu Kyi was great and worked tirelessly to get her freedom - turns out she's a Buddhist nationalist and not bothered one bit about the Rohinga. Go figure

@Rachel88 Do you view the text in bold  as rubbish? 

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17 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

Just remember there is no such thing as 'what you are willing to pay for the property and what you think it is worth'. I have seen this said on the forum many times and it makes me chuckle (there is a lot more to it behind the scenes). 

At the end of the day, central bankers control how much house prices (assets) are 'worth' through issue of credit (debt) to ensure the wealth effect and living standards of the baby boomers are maintained at the expense of the younger generation. Wages and house prices were disconnected in 1998 (left wing cannot moan about high house prices caused by Tony Blair and his policies! ). Now there is a divide of wealth between the rich and poor, young and old, working class and upper class (middle class being slowly wiped out). 

Simple formula to understand, being:

House prices = household income + mortgage rates + supply/demand

Household income likely not to change much due to covid. Public sector having pay freezes and heavy job losses and no or low rises in the private sector. Also, the threat of tax increases to pay for covid and baby boomers pensions. 

Mortgage rates (base rate plus risk premium) are manipulated by the central bankers as they have reduced the base rate to 0.1% and reduce the lenders risk (premium) by buying mortgage backed bonds (lenders offloading the riskier bonds to central bankers). Will we see the base rate go negative? Will we see central bankers buy even more riskier mortgage backed securities and hold them on their balance sheets? 

Supply/demand - It is well known there is a under supply of housing coupled with high demand (no stamp duty at mo and baby boomers buying up first time buyers properties for BTL  resulting in major price increases at the other end of the housing scale). Also, in my area, baby boomers are blocking all housing developments further restricting supply and they moan that the younger generation has been 'social cleansed' out of the area and their children are now living 50-100 miles away - I wonder why?......Demand will remain high and supply restricted. We will likely see build to rent sector overtake houses for sale sector. 

Government are slowly setting to scene 'build back better', 'global reset', 'UN agenda 2030' whatever you want to call it 'you own nothing and be happy' - the new business model is the rental model. Some well known companies offer furniture for rent now for passive income!

The new property business model will be build to rent fully supported by the Government. The government does not care about the small BTLer retail investor. Over the last couple of years, there has been alot of institutional investors (pension funds etc) registering as Social Landlords (rents will be controlled) for build to rent instead of local authorities as they can not afford to fund and build. Pension funds need to find income from somewhere as the bond market is effectively 'dead' and stocks are risky (globals market having the highest P/E ratio in its history). Passive income from renting will pay for future pensions coupled tax from the employed (rich or the lucky 1s who will have a job in the future!).

As stated by the Bank of England (2019), 1% increase in 'real' interest rates will cause 20% drop in house prices. With the increase in the money supply (due to money printing), holders with high value mortgages will not have to keep a eye on inflation but we all know Interest rates will never go up as there is too much debt in the system (common sense). Central bankers will target unemployment rate and not inflation.

The system reset is the rental model (property and EV cars etc) and the use of MMT with tax controlling inflation and not by interest rates. Interest rates will never go up. State pensions must likely be replaced by workplace pensions and universal basic income paid to all (paid for by money printing and recovered by taxes). The Bank of England will join the HM treasury so no more government borrowing, just money printing (the are effectively doing that now). 

Just look at the main market indicators now and it provides the evidence that the system is close to the end. The end game is near but when? Do you want to be the last person to the party? Do you want to keep dancing at the party until the music stops? 

IMO, keep dancing because the music will not stop just yet but when it does it will be sudden. Buy a house now as it will be one of your only chances these coming years and blame baby boomers and left wing policies on the forced move towards socialism and eventually communism which we once feared many years ago. Free market capitalism has been dead for a while. 

What?

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3 hours ago, winkie said:

Good point, as if those we support will protect us and look after our best interests.....vested influencers.;)

People are social animals they gravitate to a tribe. A flag, a team, a political group, even a brand of car. It is stronger in some folks than others but ultimately it is about being part of something bigger and the protections it brings. Most people popping off about individualism are normally rehashing same stuff spouted by thousands of others.

Influencers are just next level of cult of celebrity. They are also the advert goldrush as massively underregulated

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16 minutes ago, Rachel88 said:

If you read the article I uploaded it says he wanted them raised. I'd always assumed he wanted them higher. I dont stalk the guy. 

The good news is the FED did not lower interest rates and kept them at 2%. If you read the article uploaded for me by someone else, it discusses low interest rates and recession, the predicament the UK is in right now. 

Everything else you have written is rubbish.

Oh dear Christ on a bike

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3 hours ago, Innkeeper said:

Just look at the success of ‘influencers’ on the internet.  Completely beyond my comprehension but it’s an alarming example of how people crave to be led. Can’t think for yourself? Hey, sub contract it out and get someone to do it for you.

And as for cults we have Bitcoin threads as useful examples...

All true. Is it something to do with a generation having grown up without father figures? A lot of these people seem to flounder around latching onto anyone displaying masculine/dominant type traits, no matter what other twattery they espouse. 

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12 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Oh dear Christ on a bike

Indeed. Never argue with an idiot. They will overwhelm you with logical fallacies and, in their view, make you look like the idiot.

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Just now, Si1 said:

Indeed. Never argue with an idiot. They will overwhelm you with logical fallacies and, in their view, make you look like the idiot.

left winger's comeback 'calling someone a idiot'...just debate and not insult people on their views. 

 

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2 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

left winger's comeback 'calling someone a idiot'...just debate and not insult people on their views. 

 

To hold a view you need to have a coherent point. Good luck achieving that.

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2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

To hold a view you need to have a coherent point. Good luck achieving that.

open pointless statement. carry on insulting people on their views having a 'coherent point' . you either insult because you don't know how to reply or don't understand the person's view. 

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4 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

open pointless statement. carry on insulting people on their views having a 'coherent point' . you either insult because you don't know how to reply or don't understand the person's view. 

So your verbal diarrhea above constituted a view? Goodness.

Edited by Si1
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21 minutes ago, Rachel88 said:

Trump and Aung are separate people. It's not difficult is it. Just like Trump is not Hitler.

 

Apparently it is difficult as I gave you an example outside of your Trump sphere as anything said against Trump seems to be dismissed as rubbish.

You dismissed the Cubans in Miami voting for Trump as he's anti-castro without a shred of a counterpoint so I figured I had to show universality of it.

Now I know couple of black former US marines who voted for Trump first time round as he promised to support veterans and they thought the party would reign him in. They despise him now.

Same loads of Americans benefitting from the ACA healthcare voted for Trump as he would tear up Obamacare - because the GOP made it out to be horrendous and some even thought it was something different to the thing directly helping them.

These are all things you can get if you follow events not just read maybe one article and then say that's it everyone else is wrong. 

Now stepping away from this descending into name calling and ooh liberally lefties vs rabid right winger debates - message for everyone pls - what we've established is you didn't keep abreast of events 'didn't stalk the man' I'm taking as this article being the breadth of your knowledge on the subject isn't it a good idea to accept if you were completely wrong about this, then maybe, just a possibility you are not the authority on the other issues?

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1 minute ago, Staffsknot said:

Apparently it is difficult as I gave you an example outside of your Trump sphere as anything said against Trump seems to be dismissed as rubbish.

You dismissed the Cubans in Miami voting for Trump as he's anti-castro without a shred of a counterpoint so I figured I had to show universality of it.

Now I know couple of black former US marines who voted for Trump first time round as he promised to support veterans and they thought the party would reign him in. They despise him now.

Same loads of Americans benefitting from the ACA healthcare voted for Trump as he would tear up Obamacare - because the GOP made it out to be horrendous and some even thought it was something different to the thing directly helping them.

These are all things you can get if you follow events not just read maybe one article and then say that's it everyone else is wrong. 

Now stepping away from this descending into name calling and ooh liberally lefties vs rabid right winger debates - message for everyone pls - what we've established is you didn't keep abreast of events 'didn't stalk the man' I'm taking as this article being the breadth of your knowledge on the subject isn't it a good idea to accept if you were completely wrong about this, then maybe, just a possibility you are not the authority on the other issues?

person who talks sense, there will always be another view on topics being the lefft wing or right wing both views are to be respected without insults. 

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10 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

 liberally lefties vs rabid right winger debates - 

Please don't conflate Trumpists with general right wingers, it's another sad sock puppeting logical fallacy. Ooh look you don't like Trump so you must be a leftie. 

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