mrlegend123 Posted yesterday at 02:14 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:14 PM Recent expert warnings about the housing market, stock market, bond market bubbles. Best to cash out investments and go into short term money markets for the next few months? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Locke Posted yesterday at 02:32 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:32 PM The stock market is likely to go completely apeshit before it completely collapses, so if you cash out, be prepared to have the feeling of "I cashed out too soon!". Sir Isaac Newton, one of the smartest human beings to ever walk the planet, fell prey to this. I don't think you are smarter than Newton. The currencies are dead men walking; holding cash will get you reamed. I believe money markets are things like T-bills and Gilts? Yields are going to explode, so prepare to get reamed there too. Property will collapse, perhaps even in nominal terms which would be a good way to get rid of a large chunk of cash if you can do it debt free. IMO, hold gold, silver, bitcoin (I know you are a nocoincel, but hey may as well throw it out there), workshop tools Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrlegend123 Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Author Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM best to exit after the first big drop....looking at the graph. bear market will last years. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GeneCernan Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM (edited) 15 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said: best to exit after the first big drop....looking at the graph. bear market will last years. The graph spans three years. Time in the market, not timing the market. Don't think you can far wrong with a diverse portfolio invested over a minimum of five years. Edited yesterday at 02:52 PM by GeneCernan Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Trump Invective Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:43 PM Something strange going on though. In the past, warnings arent flashed on the front page of every website/newspaper. We are in the "please bail us out" warning phase. Nobody know what will actually happen. Lots of people MIGHT expect drops in all sorts of assets/cash. Some are just getting the begging bowl out early Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrlegend123 Posted yesterday at 02:46 PM Author Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:46 PM 2 minutes ago, GeneCernan said: Once we get back to some sense of normality I'm going to be The graph spans three years. Time in the market, not timing the market. Don't think you can far wrong with a diverse portfolio invested over a minimum of five years. I stay in mixed assets, but once the bear market is confirmed, Im moving to short term money market until the floor is found (central bankers printing like bad to prevent the markets dropping 80%) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrlegend123 Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM Author Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:49 PM 1 minute ago, mrlegend123 said: I stay in mixed assets, but once the bear market is confirmed, Im moving to short term money market until the floor is found (central bankers printing like bad to prevent the markets dropping 80%) *mad. All the indicators are flashing red. nothing has moved. most be the money printing (m1 supply) working at the mo. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted yesterday at 02:51 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:51 PM Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chunketh Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Just now, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: Quite. Hold a bag of stocks and commodities. Or houses apparently Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrlegend123 Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM Author Report Share Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM 35% increase in house prices coming this year but global currencies down 35%..... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
scottbeard Posted yesterday at 03:04 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 03:04 PM 45 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said: Recent expert warnings about the housing market, stock market, bond market bubbles. Best to cash out investments and go into short term money markets for the next few months? Don't forget that Cash carries a significant inflation risk not to be ignored. Also, the US stock market and UK stock market are two completely different animals. The US might be in a bubble but the UK not, for example. If you do decided to "SELL SELL SELL" you also need to think about when to buy again, and what to buy again. Finally, if you're investing for the long term consider whether going 100% cash as a tactical decision is really sensible. People who sold their shares in 2007 and bought them back in 2009 did nicely. People who sold houses in 2005 did not. It's a big call. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrlegend123 Posted yesterday at 03:06 PM Author Report Share Posted yesterday at 03:06 PM true, I have been to trying work out a exit strategy (just in case). Best to stay close to the exit. I was burnt in the last crash with lessons learnt. This time, it looks worse. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
scottbeard Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 03:09 PM 1 minute ago, mrlegend123 said: true, I have been to trying work out a exit strategy (just in case). Best to stay close to the exit. I was burnt in the last crash with lessons learnt. This time, it looks worse. How did you get burnt if I may ask, and which "last crash"? Normally you only get burnt selling after a crash; as well as selling you can ride it out... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrlegend123 Posted yesterday at 03:18 PM Author Report Share Posted yesterday at 03:18 PM I was new to investing and invested in 100% shares GFC. Nowadays I invest into just funds and shift between them depending on the climate. currently sat in mixed assets....wondering what to do. Moving between asset classes been good in the bull market. I prefer funds than single shares. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted yesterday at 03:29 PM Report Share Posted yesterday at 03:29 PM 9 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said: I was new to investing and invested in 100% shares GFC. Nowadays I invest into just funds and shift between them depending on the climate. currently sat in mixed assets....wondering what to do. Moving between asset classes been good in the bull market. I prefer funds than single shares. Yep...100% With all the COVID gyrations earlier on I made a small fortune. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrlegend123 Posted yesterday at 03:33 PM Author Report Share Posted yesterday at 03:33 PM 2 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: Yep...100% With all the COVID gyrations earlier on I made a small fortune. yes I moved to aggressive mixed assets during COVID and made decent gains which I want to protect. using checklist of asset classes, I can't see any safe assets.....UK shares are in stagflation. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
scottbeard Posted 23 hours ago Report Share Posted 23 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: With all the COVID gyrations earlier on I made a small fortune. True - but fortunate, because you sold thinking the market was overvalued, but it actually fell due to COVID (which you didn't predict) and not because it was overvalued. A study I often used to quote in training courses is that 80% of investment fund managers who have a good year do so mainly due to luck, and only 20% due to skill. That's one reason past performance is not a guide to the future. People reading just need to realise that ***IF*** you make the right calls, then of course you can make lots of money, but the there are significant risks associated with those courses of action too. Most relevantly to this forum, a lot of people over the last 15 years have decided not to buy houses expecting a crash that hasn't happened. I don't have a strong view on equity or housing markets either way, but I do have a strong view that trying to time the market in long-term investments is risky. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrlegend123 Posted 23 hours ago Author Report Share Posted 23 hours ago I time the market by moving asset classes as there is always a bull market somewhere. but I can't see the next bull market.... any ideas. **** it go all it on Bitcoin.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted 23 hours ago Report Share Posted 23 hours ago 8 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said: ****ed it go went all it on Bitcoin.... Fixed that for you. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GregBowman Posted 23 hours ago Report Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, mrlegend123 said: Recent expert warnings about the housing market, stock market, bond market bubbles. Best to cash out investments and go into short term money markets for the next few months? and yet Tesco's, British Gas, Asos, Sainsbury's all had cracking years - I don't think the FTSE is particularly in a bubble compared to the Dow Quote Link to post Share on other sites
winkie Posted 23 hours ago Report Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: Pumped into property stocks and shares. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
zugzwang Posted 23 hours ago Report Share Posted 23 hours ago 12 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said: I time the market by moving asset classes as there is always a bull market somewhere. but I can't see the next bull market.... any ideas. **** it go all it on Bitcoin.... Highly improbable. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is trivially true. Financial markets are full of noise and typically Markovian for durations of greater than ten minutes i.e they contain no exploitable features or memory of the past. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GregBowman Posted 23 hours ago Report Share Posted 23 hours ago 1 hour ago, GeneCernan said: The graph spans three years. Time in the market, not timing the market. Don't think you can far wrong with a diverse portfolio invested over a minimum of five years. Totally agree I am not looking to make massive money just keep ahead of inflation for retirement. I followed the advice in the book from @wish I could afford oneand so far its worked. I have the odd 'bet' on individual shares The advice was simple but illustrated with good examples - diversify in market, type and country pretty simple really In common with most people who run their own business my best investment is in myself - don't need anything too sexy outside that Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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