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The stock market is likely to go completely apeshit before it completely collapses, so if you cash out, be prepared to have the feeling of "I cashed out too soon!". Sir Isaac Newton, one of the smartest human beings to ever walk the planet, fell prey to this. I don't think you are smarter than Newton.

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The currencies are dead men walking; holding cash will get you reamed. 

I believe money markets are things like T-bills and Gilts? Yields are going to explode, so prepare to get reamed there too.

Property will collapse, perhaps even in nominal terms which would be a good way to get rid of a large chunk of cash if you can do it debt free.

IMO, hold gold, silver, bitcoin (I know you are a nocoincel, but hey may as well throw it out there), workshop tools

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15 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

best to exit after the first big drop....looking at the graph. bear market will last years. 

The graph spans three years.

Time in the market, not timing the market. Don't think you can far wrong with a diverse portfolio invested over a minimum of five years.

Edited by GeneCernan
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2 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

Once we get back to some sense of normality I'm going to be

The graph spans three years.

Time in the market, not timing the market. Don't think you can far wrong with a diverse portfolio invested over a minimum of five years.

I stay in mixed assets, but once the bear market is confirmed, Im moving to short term money market until the floor is found (central bankers printing like bad to prevent the markets dropping 80%) 

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1 minute ago, mrlegend123 said:

I stay in mixed assets, but once the bear market is confirmed, Im moving to short term money market until the floor is found (central bankers printing like bad to prevent the markets dropping 80%) 

*mad. 

All the indicators are flashing red. nothing has moved. most be the money printing (m1 supply) working at the mo. 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

Recent expert warnings about the housing market, stock market, bond market bubbles. 

Best to cash out investments and go into short term money markets for the next few months?

Don't forget that Cash carries a significant inflation risk not to be ignored.

Also, the US stock market and UK stock market are two completely different animals.  The US might be in a bubble but the UK not, for example.

If you do decided to "SELL SELL SELL" you also need to think about when to buy again, and what to buy again.

Finally, if you're investing for the long term consider whether going 100% cash as a tactical decision is really sensible.  People who sold their shares in 2007 and bought them back in 2009 did nicely.  People who sold houses in 2005 did not.  It's a big call.

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1 minute ago, mrlegend123 said:

true, I have been to trying work out a exit strategy (just in case). Best to stay close to the exit. I was burnt in the last crash with lessons learnt. 

This time, it looks worse. 

How did you get burnt if I may ask, and which "last crash"? 

Normally you only get burnt selling after a crash; as well as selling you can ride it out...

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9 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

I was new to investing and invested in 100% shares GFC. Nowadays I invest into just funds and shift between them depending on the climate. currently sat in mixed assets....wondering what to do. 

Moving between asset classes been good in the bull market. I prefer funds than single shares. 

Yep...100%
With all the COVID gyrations earlier on I made a small fortune.

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11 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

With all the COVID gyrations earlier on I made a small fortune.

True - but fortunate, because you sold thinking the market was overvalued, but it actually fell due to COVID (which you didn't predict) and not because it was overvalued.

A study I often used to quote in training courses is that 80% of investment fund managers who have a good year do so mainly due to luck, and only 20% due to skill.  That's one reason past performance is not a guide to the future.

People reading just need to realise that ***IF*** you make the right calls, then of course you can make lots of money, but the there are significant risks associated with those courses of action too.  Most relevantly to this forum, a lot of people over the last 15 years have decided not to buy houses expecting a crash that hasn't happened.  I don't have a strong view on equity or housing markets either way, but I do have a strong view that trying to time the market in long-term investments is risky. 

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1 hour ago, mrlegend123 said:

Recent expert warnings about the housing market, stock market, bond market bubbles. 

Best to cash out investments and go into short term money markets for the next few months?

 

and yet Tesco's, British Gas, Asos, Sainsbury's all had cracking years - I don't think the FTSE is particularly in a bubble compared to the Dow

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12 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

I time the market by moving asset classes as there is always a bull market somewhere.

but I can't see the next bull market.... any ideas. 

**** it go all it on Bitcoin.... 

Highly improbable.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is trivially true. Financial markets are full of noise and typically Markovian for durations of greater than ten minutes i.e they contain no exploitable features or memory of the past.

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1 hour ago, GeneCernan said:

 

The graph spans three years.

Time in the market, not timing the market. Don't think you can far wrong with a diverse portfolio invested over a minimum of five years.

Totally agree

I am not looking to make massive money just keep ahead of inflation for retirement. I followed the advice in the book from @wish I could afford oneand so far its worked. I have the odd 'bet' on individual shares

The advice was simple but illustrated with good examples - diversify in market, type and country pretty simple really 

In common with most people who run their own business my best investment is  in myself - don't need anything too sexy outside that 

 

 

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