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Something is wobbling - property market/assets


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Something is seriously askew and I have the sense a thread is about to break... have noticed "noise" about morgage bonds, etc. - the question is when? I suspect something is very imminent re: the wider economy, which will of course impact housing and much else. https://www.ft.com/content/67cb87c0-ef93-410f-90bc-60ffaf42af5e

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2 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Something is seriously askew and I have the sense a thread is about to break... have noticed "noise" about morgage bonds, etc. - the question is when? I suspect something is very imminent re: the wider economy, which will of course impact housing and much else. 

I think it's commercial loans underwritten by income from said commercial property. Shops etc not making money. So not paying their rent. A lot of finance underwritten by the value of the real estate that is supposed to be getting this income.

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

I think it's commercial loans underwritten by income from said commercial property. Shops etc not making money. So not paying their rent. A lot of finance underwritten by the value of the real estate that is supposed to be getting this income.

From what I know there are demographic shifts which are putting pressure on apartments in the major population centres in the USA... perhaps elsewhere. A major pillar of the property market. https://www.ft.com/content/67cb87c0-ef93-410f-90bc-60ffaf42af5e 

As for commercial property - that is interesting but where is their endgame? Heaven knows. Much dependent on vaccines and we don't really understand the immunology - plus the Oxford Vaccine is far from effective in terms of immunity levels, compared to Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. 

What will "normal" look like in the future... I would suggest far from normal - and our vile form of capitalism - commodify everything without consideration for anything beyond money making potential - is amplifying viral spillover in Asia and Africa, so how many more pandemics await us over the next decade? I should think several... plus coping with the current one! So perhaps several at the same time. Unless we change our ways... and looking at housing I doubt humans will for quite some time (the overarching mindset is part of the wider problem!). 

So, there will be no return to "normal" yet the "markets" and their brain dead institutions are counting on a return to normality this year, or all bets are off... 

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32 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

From what I know there are demographic shifts which are putting pressure on apartments in the major population centres in the USA... perhaps elsewhere. A major pillar of the property market. https://www.ft.com/content/67cb87c0-ef93-410f-90bc-60ffaf42af5e 

As for commercial property - that is interesting but where is their endgame? Heaven knows. Much dependent on vaccines and we don't really understand the immunology - plus the Oxford Vaccine is far from effective in terms of immunity levels, compared to Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. 

What will "normal" look like in the future... I would suggest far from normal - and our vile form of capitalism - commodify everything without consideration for anything beyond money making potential - is amplifying viral spillover in Asia and Africa, so how many more pandemics await us over the next decade? I should think several... plus coping with the current one! So perhaps several at the same time. Unless we change our ways... and looking at housing I doubt humans will for quite some time. 

So, there will be no return to "normal" yet the "markets" and their brain dead institutions are counting on a return to normality this year, or all bets are off... 

Don't commercial mortgages and funders rather count on mark to market prices, or rather not of they're inconveniently low?

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45 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

What will "normal" look like in the future... I would suggest far from normal - and our vile form of capitalism - commodify everything without consideration for anything beyond money making potential - is amplifying viral spillover in Asia and Africa, so how many more pandemics await us over the next decade? I should think several... plus coping with the current one! So perhaps several at the same time. Unless we change our ways... and looking at housing I doubt humans will for quite some time. 

Agreed. Human population growth and capitalism (which require each other) are not slowing, but the cracks are showing. Just reading this https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419/full

There's only so long we can plunder the planet's resources and pollute the air, soil and water.

fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg

 

Simultaneous with population growth, humanity's consumption as a fraction of Earth's regenerative capacity has grown from ~ 73% in 1960 to 170% in 2016 (Lin et al., 2018), with substantially greater per-person consumption in countries with highest income. With COVID-19, this overshoot dropped to 56% above Earth's regenerative capacity, which means that between January and August 2020, humanity consumed as much as Earth can renew in the entire year (overshootday.org). While inequality among people and countries remains staggering, the global middle class has grown rapidly and exceeded half the human population by 2018 (Kharas and Hamel, 2018). Over 70% of all people currently live in countries that run a biocapacity deficit while also having less than world-average income, excluding them from compensating their biocapacity deficit through purchases (Wackernagel et al., 2019) and eroding future resilience via reduced food security (Ehrlich and Harte, 2015b). The consumption rates of high-income countries continue to be substantially higher than low-income countries, with many of the latter even experiencing declines in per-capita footprint (Dasgupta and Ehrlich, 2013; Wackernagel et al., 2019).

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25 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Agreed. Human population growth and capitalism (which require each other) are not slowing, but the cracks are showing. Just reading this https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419/full

There's only so long we can plunder the planet's resources and pollute the air, soil and water.

fcosc-01-615419-g001.jpg

 

Simultaneous with population growth, humanity's consumption as a fraction of Earth's regenerative capacity has grown from ~ 73% in 1960 to 170% in 2016 (Lin et al., 2018), with substantially greater per-person consumption in countries with highest income. With COVID-19, this overshoot dropped to 56% above Earth's regenerative capacity, which means that between January and August 2020, humanity consumed as much as Earth can renew in the entire year (overshootday.org). While inequality among people and countries remains staggering, the global middle class has grown rapidly and exceeded half the human population by 2018 (Kharas and Hamel, 2018). Over 70% of all people currently live in countries that run a biocapacity deficit while also having less than world-average income, excluding them from compensating their biocapacity deficit through purchases (Wackernagel et al., 2019) and eroding future resilience via reduced food security (Ehrlich and Harte, 2015b). The consumption rates of high-income countries continue to be substantially higher than low-income countries, with many of the latter even experiencing declines in per-capita footprint (Dasgupta and Ehrlich, 2013; Wackernagel et al., 2019).

And the viral spillover/pandemic spillover zones are often under the greatest pressure of all. Let's look at China - the region this current virus is thought to have sparked... huge pig farms have moved in on the region, often financed by you and I directly (certainly by Western banks) - undermining the price small local farmers were getting - pushing the local farmers into bushmeat and plant harvesting in virgin habitat... that is exactly where the spillover happens. 

The same with new tech... the mining of metals for tech in C Africa... again a major viral spillover zone. 

I have a theory this is why we're hearing so much about net zero carbon... corporates attempting to distract us from environmental degradation that has little to do with climate change but more to do with pandemic spillover - the implications are far worse for the corporate world if the focus is on broader environmental issues, so they shout Carbon, Carbon, Carbon, in the hope we don't see the reality: their PR men and women get to work! 

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1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

Doom prediction thread #348791

Look out of the wondow mate... if this isn't some level of doom, then what is? Doesn't take much to join the dots... economics... ecosphere... viral spillover. How will it end well, exactly? For the housing market and much else? 

 

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2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Yes it's squirrels all round. The fundamental truth that people simply don't want to acknowledge is that a future of 11 billion humans by the end of the century is a future that will suck hard. The only people making any sense are big on degrowth and have about as much political power as a Ganges river dolphin. 

 

And isn't that the truth. I don't even think it is about degrowth - a re-engineered model for sure... but growth can be pretty much virtual these days... consumerism will hit the wall time and again if it doesn't kill us all. 

Watching the desperation of people trying to have their "right" to a summer holiday here in West Wales really struck home with me. It was akin to mass zombification, with people hard wired to see buying "experiences" as human rights! 

They haven't even woken up yet, in large part... as we hear the "getting back to normal" mantra via the meda... in this new age of virus spillover (thanks to your shitty shopping and lifestyle choices) there is no normal anymore! 

As for the business community and the "markets" - even more ridiculous! 

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2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Yes it's squirrels all round. The fundamental truth that people simply don't want to acknowledge is that a future of 11 billion humans by the end of the century is a future that will suck hard. The only people making any sense are big on degrowth and have about as much political power as a Ganges river dolphin. 

 

I genuinely wish the human population would shrink (hopefully naturally). But that isn't going to happen so the best we can hope for is to gradually use science and innovation to live more harmoniously with the planet. That won't happen quickly but there are shoots of green.

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25 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

Human population is falling in developed countries (no one can afford to have more than 2 kids!) 

Reducing the population naturally through education would be good for the planet and society stress. 

 

 

Education of women is the #1 activity to limit population growth.  If you don't want hordes coming over, just build schools

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30 minutes ago, Timm said:

Personally, I think there is an unreported crisis of human fertility in the west, and possibly spreading. 

People in the West, if they put their mind to it, seem to have no problem creating lots of children. But few want to cram them three to a bedroom, especially if renting, and few can aford ten bedroomed houses, so people choose not to reproduce as much. Since you don't rely on children to directly look after you in old age now, it's a viable option. 

30 minutes ago, Timm said:

 

 

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37 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

Human population is falling in developed countries (no one can afford to have more than 2 kids!) 

Reducing the population naturally through education would be good for the planet and society stress. 

 

 

I know there's alot of talk about population but really it's to do with a small number of rich people consuming as though there's no tomorrow... looking at flights, for example... " Frequent-flying “‘super emitters” who represent just 1% of the world’s population caused half of aviation’s carbon emissions in 2018, according to a study." - and that pattern is repeated time and again. 

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31 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said:

What two kid policy? 

In countries where women are better educated, the number of children per woman falls rapidly to two on average. 

Cameron's limit on child benefits which I believe was a tool to make people think twice about having more than 2 kids. 

"You won’t be paid an additional child benefit amount for more than 2 children, unless the children were born before 6 April 2017" 

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Just now, mrlegend123 said:

Cameron's limit on child benefits which I believe was a tool to make people think twice about having more than 2 kids. 

"You won’t be paid an additional child benefit amount for more than 2 children, unless the children were born before 6 April 2017" 

Yeah but he's not the president of the world

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1 hour ago, msi said:

Education of women is the #1 activity to limit population growth.  If you don't want hordes coming over, just build schools

My experience is that women want children, they also want a career.  One gets delayed for the other.  By the time they get around to it they only have time left for at most two kids.  So the population stagnates or goes down.  

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8 minutes ago, satsuma said:

My experience is that women want children, they ARE CONVINCED THROUGH PROPAGANDA AND PEER PRESSURE THAT THEY also want a career.  One gets delayed for the other.  By the time they get around to it they only have time left for at most two kids.  So the population stagnates or goes down.  

Fixed for accuracy 

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