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Am I a dreamer? Will house prices come down?


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7 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

under the bed

Same as in the bank when rates are negative. Still losing value (they were never going to charge negative interest on accounts, but in real term rates are well below negative already) 

the purpose is to encourage people to spend.

too many oldies have so much cash stashed mountains of it, that they don’t even concern themselves with it losing value over time, happy to pick up a few tiny % in interest 

the point of negative rates is to prevent the economic drag of boomers having too much cash in the bank, they rather that money is actually spent in the economy, on shares, on cars etc

its singular purpose is to stop people hoarding cash and to get them to spend it. 

And it’s working, the real rate of inflation is increasing, people are spending.

Anyone with too much cash in the bank right now doesn’t understand money, OR they have soo many assets that they can afford a large cash float (as a tiny % of their total portfolio) for picking up bargains during a panic.

 

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10 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

I am sure the ONS inflation rate ls not 0.6%, more like 6%.

The government under reports inflation, keeps public sector pensions affordable, and erodes boomers unfair pensions they promised themselves, and allows bad debt to be eroded away.

have a look at shadow stats 

I would guess it’s closer to 20% this year. 

It’s brutal. but a 5 minute google can show much much assets have gone up in a short time. 

money printing only leads to more and more money printing, once it’s started it can’t be stopped, it only intensifies.

it’s the sort of thing that nothing happens in ages then suddenly it happens all at once. 
 

 

Edited by jiltedjen
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10 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Anyone with too much cash in the bank right now doesn’t understand money, OR they have soo many assets that they can afford a large cash float (as a tiny % of their total portfolio) for picking up bargains during a panic.

 

Absolutely Spot on....I am ready and waiting but not sure what bargains will interest me. 
 

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Just now, Pop321 said:

Absolutely Spot on....I am ready and waiting but not sure what bargains will interest me. 
 

Annoyingly winter during a pandemic should of been a perfect time to buy a VW camper due to forced sellers.

talking half price blood on the streets style rip their face off cheap. 

but with furlough etc it’s prevent a whole slew of assets being forced to be sold off cheap, prices are much lower than they otherwise would be but it’s not bargain city.

not that I take joy in people losing jobs, but I do take joy in seeing car financed up to eyeball morons having to sell to sensible people on the cheap (as they are the ones that drove prices up with debt in the first place) 

same can be said with houses or most assets, guitars etc.
 

never let a good panic go to waste 

 

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4 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

Annoyingly winter during a pandemic should of been a perfect time to buy a VW camper due to forced sellers.

talking half price blood on the streets style rip their face off cheap. 

but with furlough etc it’s prevent a whole slew of assets being forced to be sold off cheap, prices are much lower than they otherwise would be but it’s not bargain city.

not that I take joy in people losing jobs, but I do take joy in seeing car financed up to eyeball morons having to sell to sensible people on the cheap (as they are the ones that drove prices up with debt in the first place) 

same can be said with houses or most assets, guitars etc.
 

never let a good panic go to waste 

 

Hmmm....next winter then. Nice 1972 Bay, powder blue maybe....for £8k. After someone else paid £15k and spent £8k on it. 😉👍🏻

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On 1/16/2021 at 8:16 PM, Pop321 said:

Absolutely Spot on....I am ready and waiting but not sure what bargains will interest me. 
 

Bargains?? Not where I'm looking.

Viewed a house this weekend, lovely pictures made the house to be more spacious than what it was. Too small, but, so much interest, they had to take the ad down after 6 hours on RM, which is accurate and true.

Vendor mentioned they set a lower price to attract interest and let the bidding start. I would have thought 190-195k,  vendor said 215k is what  they're after. And will probably get. 

Another BTL that's been sitting in a good location with tenants in since early Dec, spoke to the EA and she said vendor insists on the asking, nothing less. When I called last month, EA said popular road, blah blah, lots of interest but vendor is putting people off. 

No bargain or deals in my part of the world...

 

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8 hours ago, househunter123 said:

Bargains?? Not where I'm looking.

Viewed a house this weekend, lovely pictures made the house to be more spacious than what it was. Too small, but, so much interest, they had to take the ad down after 6 hours on RM, which is accurate and true.

Vendor mentioned they set a lower price to attract interest and let the bidding start. I would have thought 190-195k,  vendor said 215k is what  they're after. And will probably get. 

Another BTL that's been sitting in a good location with tenants in since early Dec, spoke to the EA and she said vendor insists on the asking, nothing less. When I called last month, EA said popular road, blah blah, lots of interest but vendor is putting people off. 

No bargain or deals in my part of the world...

 

How many VW camper vans have you viewed?  I would not pay £215k even for a 21 windowed Samba.

That is what I was talking about. 

————-

“so much interest they had to take the advert down”.  yep, that’s how it works when there is just so much interest. 

I had trials for Man United but they wanted to pay me so much money I withdrew my interest. I enjoy the game too much and prefer to just play a few times a week with mates for fun. 

————-

And I think we may have had this conversation before but you might not be seeing ‘bargains’ but there seems to be a lot better value than last year coming on the market near us (North York’s)....and also less interest even at the lower prices. 🤷🏻‍♂️.  Not massively cheaper but back to PreCovid levels at least. 

I don’t know what prices will do over 6 months, 6 years or 60 years with the new ‘printy printy’ economics but the next few weeks feel uncertain.

I am not convinced my son will get the best bargain now but if he really wants to then that uncertainty is proving very helpful. That’s normally enough for those motivated sellers. My son has 2 empties (one probate sale and one ex rental) to consider and even I have been offered an empty bungalow even though I don’t buy anymore.

Late summer 2020 I doubt I would have been able to get any EA to ring me back.....now they are ringing without me asking.

3 decent potential opportunities in a 500 yard search radius. 

Edited by Pop321
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On 1/16/2021 at 8:01 PM, jiltedjen said:

Same as in the bank when rates are negative. Still losing value (they were never going to charge negative interest on accounts, but in real term rates are well below negative already) 

the purpose is to encourage people to spend.

too many oldies have so much cash stashed mountains of it, that they don’t even concern themselves with it losing value over time, happy to pick up a few tiny % in interest 

the point of negative rates is to prevent the economic drag of boomers having too much cash in the bank, they rather that money is actually spent in the economy, on shares, on cars etc

its singular purpose is to stop people hoarding cash and to get them to spend it. 

And it’s working, the real rate of inflation is increasing, people are spending.

Anyone with too much cash in the bank right now doesn’t understand money, OR they have soo many assets that they can afford a large cash float (as a tiny % of their total portfolio) for picking up bargains during a panic.

 

Forecast is for it to remain historically low

https://www.statista.com/statistics/306720/cpi-rate-forecast-uk/

It's very low currently. 

 

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14 hours ago, Pop321 said:

How many VW camper vans have you viewed?  I would not pay £215k even for a 21 windowed Samba.

That is what I was talking about. 

————-

“so much interest they had to take the advert down”.  yep, that’s how it works when there is just so much interest. 

I had trials for Man United but they wanted to pay me so much money I withdrew my interest. I enjoy the game too much and prefer to just play a few times a week with mates for fun. 

————-

And I think we may have had this conversation before but you might not be seeing ‘bargains’ but there seems to be a lot better value than last year coming on the market near us (North York’s)....and also less interest even at the lower prices. 🤷🏻‍♂️.  Not massively cheaper but back to PreCovid levels at least. 

I don’t know what prices will do over 6 months, 6 years or 60 years with the new ‘printy printy’ economics but the next few weeks feel uncertain.

I am not convinced my son will get the best bargain now but if he really wants to then that uncertainty is proving very helpful. That’s normally enough for those motivated sellers. My son has 2 empties (one probate sale and one ex rental) to consider and even I have been offered an empty bungalow even though I don’t buy anymore.

Late summer 2020 I doubt I would have been able to get any EA to ring me back.....now they are ringing without me asking.

3 decent potential opportunities in a 500 yard search radius. 

Well, just seen the same house with the BTL landlord , updated a few hours ago with tenants, now for sale as a guide price 210-220k when yesterday, the EA *insisted* vendor wants the asking of 230k.

 

Hmmm, either the EA was speaking BS or the landlord was listening to our calls? What you reckon, wait for them to call me tomorrow?  

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8 hours ago, househunter123 said:

Well, just seen the same house with the BTL landlord , updated a few hours ago with tenants, now for sale as a guide price 210-220k when yesterday, the EA *insisted* vendor wants the asking of 230k.

 

Hmmm, either the EA was speaking BS or the landlord was listening to our calls? What you reckon, wait for them to call me tomorrow?  

In the real world (rather than key board warrior world) this is tricky.

In my buying days I would be cool as a cucumber and would not only wait but in the back of my mind have lined up numerous other options and properties. When you are not really bothered that’s when the really good deals appear. 

This is a forum advocating a crash but local knowledge is key. My son is looking to buy at around 2005 levels but yesterday on the ‘largest price drops’ thread in West London a house that has fallen from £1.1m to £850k but had been bought in 2005 for £250k. (Rough figures). We that’s a whole different game and a whole different set of knowledge. I guess at £600k that house is West London is a good buy (I say I guess because I have no idea) but for me I would just be amazed it was still a whooping £600k. I doubt locals in west London will think 2005 is realistic again  

So it’s all about local knowledge. The EA does seem bullish at a time when the whole world sits on the very wobbly economy which is virtually impossible to reliably predict. 

So my very general advice is set a price, build in the fact the market might crash and buy well based on comparisons trying to ignore the 2020 summer madness. However, my son isn’t waiting 10 years for a fall but he is exercising extreme caution as he searches just at the moment. He knows there is always something else  

Good luck. 

Edited by Pop321
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On 16/01/2021 at 20:01, jiltedjen said:

Same as in the bank when rates are negative. Still losing value (they were never going to charge negative interest on accounts, but in real term rates are well below negative already) 

the purpose is to encourage people to spend.

too many oldies have so much cash stashed mountains of it, that they don’t even concern themselves with it losing value over time, happy to pick up a few tiny % in interest 

the point of negative rates is to prevent the economic drag of boomers having too much cash in the bank, they rather that money is actually spent in the economy, on shares, on cars etc

its singular purpose is to stop people hoarding cash and to get them to spend it. 

And it’s working, the real rate of inflation is increasing, people are spending.

Anyone with too much cash in the bank right now doesn’t understand money, OR they have soo many assets that they can afford a large cash float (as a tiny % of their total portfolio) for picking up bargains during a panic.

 

Of course we understand money, but with age one becomes more risk averse. Losing a high proportion of our capital is not something that we have years to recoup. So for me, and many others in my age group, holding on to what we have is the name of the game.

As for bargains, I hold lots of stock of things I will need, all bought at large discounts.

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On 1/20/2021 at 7:00 AM, Pop321 said:

In the real world (rather than key board warrior world) this is tricky.

In my buying days I would be cool as a cucumber and would not only wait but in the back of my mind have lined up numerous other options and properties. When you are not really bothered that’s when the really good deals appear. 

This is a forum advocating a crash but local knowledge is key. My son is looking to buy at around 2005 levels but yesterday on the ‘largest price drops’ thread in West London a house that has fallen from £1.1m to £850k but had been bought in 2005 for £250k. (Rough figures). We that’s a whole different game and a whole different set of knowledge. I guess at £600k that house is West London is a good buy (I say I guess because I have no idea) but for me I would just be amazed it was still a whooping £600k. I doubt locals in west London will think 2005 is realistic again  

So it’s all about local knowledge. The EA does seem bullish at a time when the whole world sits on the very wobbly economy which is virtually impossible to reliably predict. 

So my very general advice is set a price, build in the fact the market might crash and buy well based on comparisons trying to ignore the 2020 summer madness. However, my son isn’t waiting 10 years for a fall but he is exercising extreme caution as he searches just at the moment. He knows there is always something else  

Good luck. 

Well, this EA in particular have reduced the price of a few more homes on their inventory today. Interesting, I doubt they'll call but just spoke with them on Monday when they said vendor will not budge on a home I'm interested in and a day later, reduce  it from 230 to a guide price of 210k

I made an offer through them for another house on the same road in the summer and it was all pleasant so I don't think I've p'd them off or anything. Just an update, that's all. Should I call and view or wait more? I think I'll have a view as it ticks a lot of boxes for now.

I've also found out the details of the landlord who's selling the house on the Land Registry data and turns out he's got many properties worth around a million according to his BTL companies account as he's formed an investment company, probably for tax purposes. You reckon getting it for under 200k is unlikely?

Edited by househunter123
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  • 2 weeks later...
10 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Reviving this one just to post that 2 houses in my area were listed on 27/1 and both have sold. 1.7 & 1.5 mil

In ONE day.

 

This market is still insane. 

Means nothing without context. Have they actually ‘sold’ or have offers been accepted and they’re SSTC?

Also how do you know what price they agreed - they may have both gone for significant reductions, no one will know until they hit land registry.

Also, where is this and what is the average price over past couple of years for similar properties?

so many local variables in the UK, markets within markets.

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7 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Means nothing without context. Have they actually ‘sold’ or have offers been accepted and they’re SSTC?

Also how do you know what price they agreed - they may have both gone for significant reductions, no one will know until they hit land registry.

Also, where is this and what is the average price over past couple of years for similar properties?

so many local variables in the UK, markets within markets.

London zone 2. Nice area. 

They stuck em on rightmove 27th and they changed to sold today. So SSTC obvs. This local market doesn’t have chain breaking problems, as in, there’s a looooooooooooooong list of people champing to get hold of places that don’t come up often and if one falls out everyone just rolls over in the bed. Av price dunno, the numbers coming on the market are so low there’s no point using as a metric.

Why the heck would anyone accept a low offer one day after going on the market? These places are more likely to go over asking. 

Now FLATS without gardens, They ain’t budging. Same area and I can see people chasing the market down. It’s all about the big houses. 

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1 hour ago, PeanutButter said:

Reviving this one just to post that 2 houses in my area were listed on 27/1 and both have sold. 1.7 & 1.5 mil

In ONE day.

 

This market is still insane. 

Exact opposite of what we are seeing in N Yorks and also the opposite of what many are seeing on the Reduced, reduced, reduced thread.

Just hugely grateful my son didn’t jump in during the Summer 2020 because there seems to have been an artificial lift following pent up demand.

So nothing to do with rising or falling long term prices just rather when it’s sunny and 5 people view a house and 2 people bid then it’s sold at a 10/15% premium. That froth has disappeared near us. 

 

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Another couple we know just sold in Edinburgh and spent a small fortune outside the city. Buying something for 350k for that was only 250k 5/6 years ago. A generic detached new build on a tiny plot with no privacy. 

Something we like in Perth came up for 335k yesterday. (A period house that’s easy to find on rightmove). It’ll be very interesting to see how quickly it sells. It’s pitched relatively low compared to others... so should sell...but if it doesn’t go soon we will take a look. There are others struggling to sell but this is bigger and has potential. 

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11 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

London zone 2. Nice area. 

They stuck em on rightmove 27th and they changed to sold today. So SSTC obvs. This local market doesn’t have chain breaking problems, as in, there’s a looooooooooooooong list of people champing to get hold of places that don’t come up often and if one falls out everyone just rolls over in the bed. Av price dunno, the numbers coming on the market are so low there’s no point using as a metric.

Why the heck would anyone accept a low offer one day after going on the market? These places are more likely to go over asking. 

Now FLATS without gardens, They ain’t budging. Same area and I can see people chasing the market down. It’s all about the big houses. 

As I say markets within markets everywhere. FWIW not what's happening in SW London Surrey borders, another 5 houses in our search areas are now back from SSTC to available and prices reduced. However, new supply still very low and what's left is the over priced crap which is slowly being reduced.

 

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11 hours ago, Smiley George said:

As I say markets within markets everywhere. FWIW not what's happening in SW London Surrey borders, another 5 houses in our search areas are now back from SSTC to available and prices reduced. However, new supply still very low and what's left is the over priced crap which is slowly being reduced.

 

I can believe that. I've been watching a starter house of people I know in that area and it's currently on for 20k less than they paid for it in 2016. South facing garden, less than 10min walk to train station, good nick. They put it on for kite flying price ages ago (don't trust agents lies!) and chased the market down. I hope for their sake it sells in summer. 

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