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Am I a dreamer? Will house prices come down?


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My two pence. I don’t think there’ll be a significant ‘crash’ now, or in the near future. The government have shown time and time again that they’ll throw anything and everything at the ponzi scheme to keep it going. Dare I say it; I do think we’re at the point where effectively the ‘market’ is too big to properly fail. Too much of our economy, people’s money, etc, etc is tied into it. Hopefully there may be a 10-15% drop in the near future; after all, if a global pandemic and Brexit don’t cause a drop, nothing will. But I can’t see anything more than that realistically happening in the next couple of decades. However..... don’t underestimate people’s sense of panic! Especially these days....

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

Yes just seen that. I've written already on another reply that a friend of mine didn't get the mortgage for a cottage they had hoped to by. The surveyor said it wasn't worth what they were paying.

I also have another friend who has struggled to sell theirs. She sold it but the surveyor said it had high levels of damp throughout. She had a damp proof course done when she bought but the buyer said they were going to pull out because the surveyor picked up high levels of damp. Luckily, she spoke with the buyer and sold it.

But my point is the surveyor's down valuation and scrutiny of properties, may actually help to reduce prices.

I hope so. They are so massively over priced. 

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33 minutes ago, ForGreatLager... said:

My two pence. I don’t think there’ll be a significant ‘crash’ now, or in the near future. The government have shown time and time again that they’ll throw anything and everything at the ponzi scheme to keep it going. Dare I say it; I do think we’re at the point where effectively the ‘market’ is too big to properly fail. Too much of our economy, people’s money, etc, etc is tied into it. Hopefully there may be a 10-15% drop in the near future; after all, if a global pandemic and Brexit don’t cause a drop, nothing will. But I can’t see anything more than that realistically happening in the next couple of decades. However..... don’t underestimate people’s sense of panic! Especially these days....

10%- 15% would be fairly good for me. 

I know how much the government keeps propping it up. Boris isnt helping with his plan of 95% government backed mortgages.

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2 hours ago, Rachel88 said:

I agree and you made me laugh. If the 2008 crash was 13 years ago. Surely we a due another one? 

I would suggest, what you're currently seeing, is the crash.

This time it's a virus and they are shaking that magic money tree, like there's no end in sight.

No evictions.

Free money for all.

Mortgage holidays.

Bounce back loans.

Grants.

Free food.

everything is free.

Get the homeless off the streets and into accommodation.

What's more likely to happen, imo is that we'll have monetary inflation or negative interest rates.

The way I see it, is the banks & landlords are actually lobbying government.

The government themselves are landlords, if you were sitting in the halls of power, would you not vote to protect your own interests?

If Sarah and Jessica, like making kids, we do not need them in the centre of London or Birmingham. We can ship them out to Stoke-on-Trent and they can be baby making machines, there instead. I'm not being rude, many artists also travel the world, others only go around the block. So expect more genetification.

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1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

 

If Sarah and Jessica, like making kids, we do not need them in the centre of London or Birmingham. We can ship them out to Stoke-on-Trent and they can be baby making machines, there instead. I'm not being rude, many artists also travel the world, others only go around the block. So expect more genetification.

A wonderful idea but sadly no party will go for it

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10 hours ago, Pop321 said:

30% increase. Was this Hong Kong? It’s easy to think prices have risen quickly but a lot of it can be froth. 

I viewed a house with my son last year in the boom and it was £279k but worth £245k and had 10+ viewers. I know the agent well. 

It sold for £292k and fell through in December. Back on in December at £279k and still no viewings and EA rang me....he knows viewings ‘might’ pick up as weather improves but the seller is looking to sort. It’s empty. Yum, yum.

He wanted to know if we were still interested and knows we will be at £245/250k. 

As with any quick uplift in prices the reality is many prices don't really go up....some people will have completed and they have just over paid. It was sunny and exciting, unfortunately these people bought a house in the excitement rather than a new TV...never mind. 

Prices aren’t not now falling near us rather they are settling back to pre covid level and a more realistic level  

To be fair we are tempted. It’s a great plot, it’s extended, lifestyle rear diner/kitchen with the patio doors etc and it’s an ex rental so has lost its shine but all the basic stuff has been done ie wiring, new bathroom and kitchen and heating. Similar house (without the extension) sold for £250k in 2014...so its not a bad deal. I would pay £210k but that’s my bearish HPC hat, reality is that it is an opportunity for a really nice home. We are circling but watching for other similar opportunities. Heavy snow and icy roads...no mad rush and no one viewing anything. 

I am not advocating buying now....but some people will want to or feel they need to (eg my son 🤦🏻‍♂️). We are just glad he didn’t jump in during summer and now this little uncertainty is often enough to get a ‘reasonable’ deal. 

Bargains maybe later in the year....but that another debate and one i think will be the case but who knows what the government will pull out of the hat 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

To answer your question, the place is in coastal holiday village and the prices went nuts over the summer.  I was talking with a friend that bought and i know what she paid, same houses are at least 30% more now.  I am now having a sniff about to see whats doing and did call the EA about one place I am interested in.  I had not bothered calling about anything for a while as the places were selling way over the asking price, the more work needed the higher the bidding went.  Anyway, this time there were no offers and the EA said that I should be aware the banks are dragging their feet on valuations.  I might drag my ass around a few places and see if anyone is a motivated seller.    

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13 minutes ago, satsuma said:

To answer your question, the place is in coastal holiday village and the prices went nuts over the summer.  I was talking with a friend that bought and i know what she paid, same houses are at least 30% more now.  I am now having a sniff about to see whats doing and did call the EA about one place I am interested in.  I had not bothered calling about anything for a while as the places were selling way over the asking price, the more work needed the higher the bidding went.  Anyway, this time there were no offers and the EA said that I should be aware the banks are dragging their feet on valuations.  I might drag my ass around a few places and see if anyone is a motivated seller.    

Interesting that the more work that was needed the dafter the prices. I have seen that a lot over the years. 

New EAs naively used to ask me ‘looking for something to do up’....my answer was ‘not if I can help it’. Then they would say ‘but I thought you were looking to make money’ and my reply was ‘I am’  😉

Genuinely some people think if you do something up you make money regardless of basic maths 😆😆  

Only words of reassurance I can give is hopefully the froth should have disappeared a bit. As an aside, I imagine some coastal towns are quite seasonal re prices....ie and a cold wet winter might be a nice opportunity. If you are desperate you may not get a bargain but hopefully something a lot better than you saw in the summer frenzy. 

Genuinely...good luck. 👍🏻

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16 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

Interesting that the more work that was needed the dafter the prices. I have seen that a lot over the years. 

New EAs naively used to ask me ‘looking for something to do up’....my answer was ‘not if I can help it’. Then they would say ‘but I thought you were looking to make money’ and my reply was ‘I am’  😉

Genuinely some people think if you do something up you make money regardless of basic maths 😆😆  

Only words of reassurance I can give is hopefully the froth should have disappeared a bit. As an aside, I imagine some coastal towns are quite seasonal re prices....ie and a cold wet winter might be a nice opportunity. If you are desperate you may not get a bargain but hopefully something a lot better than you saw in the summer frenzy. 

Genuinely...good luck. 👍🏻

I will try to stick with it and do a good few viewings.  My feeling is the next two months will throw up the right place at the right price.         

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1 hour ago, satsuma said:

I will try to stick with it and do a good few viewings.  My feeling is the next two months will throw up the right place at the right price.         

And you can always try to ‘squeeze’ a bargain Mr Satsuma.

I will let myself out 😆

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Thinking back to the last crash in 2008/9 - I saw prices drop by 20 percent in (far) East London - I know that as we paid £240k for an OK (in need of redecoration and a new boiler) 2 bed house. 6 months later similar houses were selling for £200. We didn't buy the most expensive house in the area, but we weren't that far off - but that was just everything that was available at the time so right then we thought it was an OK price. 

So big drops are possible - and that was even with the interest rates dropping to record lows. Problem was it was harder for friends to get mortgages after 2009 in the same area - but good if you have a nice deposit waiting. Until about 2012 when prices started to increase (and actually a bit later) the houses coming up for sale wasn't great, but there were some. Nicer ones for sure. 

 

Long left that area now, but I wouldn't want to be selling there right now. 

 

Local to me now things went nuts in the summer, but they've calmed right down now. Will the price go lower than they were 2 years ago? No idea, but feels like they have to come down from where they are now. 

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I should add - the 'nuts' in my aea seemed to be second home owners or more frequently holiday lets - very annoying - meant local friends missed out as outbid. And now we are ending up on a road with more and more empty houses much of the year and random tourists the rest. I'd love it if there area bumped up council tax on 2nd homes and business rates for lets. 

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42 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

We're too lazy for unrest. 

Of course we are not.....oh wait, a new series of X Factor is starting maybe start some unrest after that. 😉 🤦🏻‍♂️

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12 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

Of course we are not.....oh wait, a new series of X Factor is starting maybe start some unrest after that. 😉 🤦🏻‍♂️

I just need to see who the Masked SInger is and THEN I'll make some molotov cocktails. 

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1 hour ago, crow said:

Thinking back to the last crash in 2008/9 - I saw prices drop by 20 percent in (far) East London - I know that as we paid £240k for an OK (in need of redecoration and a new boiler) 2 bed house. 6 months later similar houses were selling for £200. We didn't buy the most expensive house in the area, but we weren't that far off - but that was just everything that was available at the time so right then we thought it was an OK price. 

So big drops are possible - and that was even with the interest rates dropping to record lows. Problem was it was harder for friends to get mortgages after 2009 in the same area - but good if you have a nice deposit waiting. Until about 2012 when prices started to increase (and actually a bit later) the houses coming up for sale wasn't great, but there were some. Nicer ones for sure. 

 

Long left that area now, but I wouldn't want to be selling there right now. 

 

Local to me now things went nuts in the summer, but they've calmed right down now. Will the price go lower than they were 2 years ago? No idea, but feels like they have to come down from where they are now. 

Yes, looking at London it does not look like it's in a good position. 

I took a screenshot near the start of the pandemic and there were 23000 houses/flats for sale. Now there are 47000. Some are selling, apparently people are getting "bargains" as thousands being knocked off. 

I worry about the unemployment in London. I have a few friends that moved down there last year. 

 

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1 hour ago, sta100 said:

Will house prices come down seems like the wrong question now. How much mass unrest is going to occur, perhaps.

 

I wonder sometimes if the lockdown is to stop us rioting.

Honestly there is going to be nothing left after this. I fear crime is going to skyrocket.

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1 hour ago, crow said:

I should add - the 'nuts' in my aea seemed to be second home owners or more frequently holiday lets - very annoying - meant local friends missed out as outbid. And now we are ending up on a road with more and more empty houses much of the year and random tourists the rest. I'd love it if there area bumped up council tax on 2nd homes and business rates for lets. 

I agree. It has been devastating on local people and families. 2nd home ownership, Airbnb, holiday lets need taxing loads. 

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1 hour ago, crow said:

Thinking back to the last crash in 2008/9 - I saw prices drop by 20 percent in (far) East London - I know that as we paid £240k for an OK (in need of redecoration and a new boiler) 2 bed house. 6 months later similar houses were selling for £200. We didn't buy the most expensive house in the area, but we weren't that far off - but that was just everything that was available at the time so right then we thought it was an OK price. 

So big drops are possible - and that was even with the interest rates dropping to record lows. Problem was it was harder for friends to get mortgages after 2009 in the same area - but good if you have a nice deposit waiting. Until about 2012 when prices started to increase (and actually a bit later) the houses coming up for sale wasn't great, but there were some. Nicer ones for sure. 

 

Long left that area now, but I wouldn't want to be selling there right now. 

 

Local to me now things went nuts in the summer, but they've calmed right down now. Will the price go lower than they were 2 years ago? No idea, but feels like they have to come down from where they are now. 

Far east London, I live in Romford, did you live anywhere close? have noticed the local area seems to be 50K off the peak for a typical home. What area did you move to out of interest? 

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23 minutes ago, HSvetz said:

Far east London, I live in Romford, did you live anywhere close? have noticed the local area seems to be 50K off the peak for a typical home. What area did you move to out of interest? 

We were Forest Gate - I used to call it far east as when we lived in London people at work couldn't imagine anywhere east of Hackney - and we certainly weren't Hackney. It wasn't a great place at the time but wasn't awful and we felt very happy there. There just wasn't much to do there for a long time in terms of great pubs or food places. There are loads now we've left! 

I was a little surprised by the prices dropping at the time, but I didn't really mind as we had a mortgage we could afford and planned to be there for some time. We only left years later when we were having our 2nd kid and we couldn't really afford a good extension and buying a larger house in the area wasn't possible. We both still miss London, and it annoys me that even with a good wage we couldn't really afford a comfortable house there, even moving further and further out.

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Moved to - sorry missed that bit - we moved to the Norfolk coast to be near my wife's family. Loads cheaper here but there aren't a lot of jobs. 

36 minutes ago, HSvetz said:

Far east London, I live in Romford, did you live anywhere close? have noticed the local area seems to be 50K off the peak for a typical home. What area did you move to out of interest? 

 

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