Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, 12345 said:

Makes sense, cheers!

It's not perfect but it's better than the bull coming out of the VI indexes.

It's remarkable that the number is so close to the official numbers of around 7%, what that might also be hiding is the massive skew from London, if that London index keeps falling in Q1/Q2 then it's game on. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 54
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Current asking prices, it's pretty explanatory.

It's pretty spot on compare to the other metrics saying prices have gone up 7%

Not sure what metric you're talking about but we are all ears.

I'm not sure how useful this information is.  Take for instance the south east. Many properties go for over asking, and also lots of Estate agents put houses on for wild over valuations just to win an instruction.

The real data is what stuff ends up actully selling for in the land registry, not the price on rightmove, which is more often then not above or below the agreed sale price.  This might explain why your graphs are out of kilter with other metrics used to gauge HPI.

Edited by Martin_JD
typo
Link to post
Share on other sites

Great dedication to the cause but asking prices aren't sold prices and average asking prices are heavily skewed by the property type mixture.

Nonetheless respect for the analysis and it is interesting to see. It doesn't quite marry up with what we're being told nationally but that'll be down to the mixture above. In other words London is selling flats that are falling in price. S.E is selling fewer large houses, or those sellers are more motivated, or all the good expensive ones have been bought and it's the cheap stuff getting left behind?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, househunter123 said:

Thanks as always Count. No idea how you calculated them but must take a great deal of effort. 

So. Good news overall or again, region specific ? 

No worries.  It's little effort to be honest now that it's all set up.  Biggest hassle is posting them here :lol: I'd stick to twitter but it's a loyalty thing.

As I pointed out above, the regional data is more relevant.  A national index is just marking bull.  All the indexes are the same, you can't really have a national index, the prices are just too different between the SE and London.

Im just glad I'm not living up north and lost 8% this year, my savings are up about 5% on house prices and I dont have to remind the tolls how my oil stocks are doing do I ?

Owning a house is great but not owning one gives many more opportunities in life.

That's my rent paid for for the last decade.

image.png.5a0391466def06aed8dc3e2ee54599de.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

Great dedication to the cause but asking prices aren't sold prices and average asking prices are heavily skewed by the property type mixture.

Nonetheless respect for the analysis and it is interesting to see. It doesn't quite marry up with what we're being told nationally but that'll be down to the mixture above. In other words London is selling flats that are falling in price. S.E is selling fewer large houses, or those sellers are more motivated, or all the good expensive ones have been bought and it's the cheap stuff getting left behind?

It is what it is and about the only data I can trust.  The big news for me is the number of listings in london, 30% up.  Regardless of asking/actual selling price that speaks volumes ( excuse the pun).

The RM Initial asking price ( I know ) is trumpeted by the MSM as gospel, this is just trying to keep it honest.  

 

RE: "all the good expensive ones have been bought and it's the cheap stuff getting left behind?"

"Coronavirus has left Britain’s millionaires poorer "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/coronavirus-has-left-britains-millionaires-poorer-others-increase/

Anything normal people can buy has been pushed up massively by scum bag spiv estate agents trying to get it up to £500,000 and tell people how much they are "saving" in stamp duty.

 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

. In other words London is selling flats that are falling in price. S.E is selling fewer large houses, or those sellers are more motivated, or all the good expensive ones have been bought and it's the cheap stuff getting left behind?

The only anecodate I have from London is that no one can see their flats.

Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It is what it is and about the only data I can trust.  The big news for me is the number of listings in london, 30% up.  Regardless of asking/actual selling price that speaks volumes ( excuse the pun).

The RM Initial asking price ( I know ) is trumpeted by the MSM as gospel, this is just trying to keep it honest.  

 

RE: "all the good expensive ones have been bought and it's the cheap stuff getting left behind?"

"Coronavirus has left Britain’s millionaires poorer "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/coronavirus-has-left-britains-millionaires-poorer-others-increase/

Anything normal people can buy has been pushed up massively by scum bag spiv estate agents trying to get it up to £500,000 and tell people how much they are "saving" in stamp duty.

30% increase in volume is pretty significant.. is that month on month? generally there is an uptick in January. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The only anecodate I have from London is that no one can see their flats.

People I know living in rented in London have legged it out to the shires (Herefordshire). Many in finance and IT are able to easily work remotely and they'll probably keep it that way for the foreseeable. 

Those 'accidental' landlords are going to be 'accidental' disposers of property. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

No worries.  It's little effort to be honest now that it's all set up.  Biggest hassle is posting them here :lol: I'd stick to twitter but it's a loyalty thing.

As I pointed out above, the regional data is more relevant.  A national index is just marking bull.  All the indexes are the same, you can't really have a national index, the prices are just too different between the SE and London.

Im just glad I'm not living up north and lost 8% this year, my savings are up about 5% on house prices and I dont have to remind the tolls how my oil stocks are doing do I ?

Owning a house is great but not owning one gives many more opportunities in life.

That's my rent paid for for the last decade.

image.png.5a0391466def06aed8dc3e2ee54599de.png

Lol and the same for me. Very good information, am very thankful.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, tep1 said:

Lol and the same for me. Very good information, am very thankful.

cheers tep1.

One other point.

As a stick in the sand, comparing regions on a YoY basis has got to have some validity as you'd think/hope statistically that you'd see roughly the same number of properties types/numbers listed.

One thing I would say is that some ares might be getting skewed by the blocks of flats the BTL scum are trying to desperately trying to off load, e.g.

46 bedroom block of apartments for sale

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/67546539#/

That's taken as 1 house valued at £3.5M, not much I can do about that.

Comically, looking for that this is quite a good find...

 46 beds // Fully Let for 2019/20 Academic Year // £306,210 Gross Income

Someone's worried about 2021

and

24 flats

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/60825771#/

 

There are loads of these up and down the country as people run for the exits. 

Would be interesting to know if other indexes class these as 1 or multiple properties.

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

No worries.  It's little effort to be honest now that it's all set up.  Biggest hassle is posting them here :lol: I'd stick to twitter but it's a loyalty thing.

As I pointed out above, the regional data is more relevant.  A national index is just marking bull.  All the indexes are the same, you can't really have a national index, the prices are just too different between the SE and London.

Im just glad I'm not living up north and lost 8% this year, my savings are up about 5% on house prices and I dont have to remind the tolls how my oil stocks are doing do I ?

Owning a house is great but not owning one gives many more opportunities in life.

That's my rent paid for for the last decade.

image.png.5a0391466def06aed8dc3e2ee54599de.png

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/06/ftse-100-stock-market-bubble-risk

Thoughts? 

--------

"Jeremy Grantham, the British co-founder of the US investment firm GMO, said in a letter to clients that current investor behaviour bore the hallmarks of the mood in the run-up to the 1929 Wall Street crash.

“The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully fledged epic bubble,” the 82-year-old financier said.

“Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behaviour, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000.”

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, Count. As someone looking in London, I am not surprised by what your figures show. And I can see the drops continuing. Aside from the effects on the economy from Covid and Brexit, there are the demographics too:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/07/london-population-decline-first-time-since-1988-report-covid-home-working

 

Edited by Voice of Doom
Made link work
Link to post
Share on other sites

The London figures are always interesting. Is it possible to segment the data by property type? I.e. I suspect a very different story for flats vs houses (especially for houses over £1m which we can assume in most cases are at least vaguely desirable - although perhaps not great quality in some areas).

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

No worries.  It's little effort to be honest now that it's all set up.  Biggest hassle is posting them here :lol: I'd stick to twitter but it's a loyalty thing.

As I pointed out above, the regional data is more relevant.  A national index is just marking bull.  All the indexes are the same, you can't really have a national index, the prices are just too different between the SE and London.

Im just glad I'm not living up north and lost 8% this year, my savings are up about 5% on house prices and I dont have to remind the tolls how my oil stocks are doing do I ?

Owning a house is great but not owning one gives many more opportunities in life.

That's my rent paid for for the last decade.

image.png.5a0391466def06aed8dc3e2ee54599de.png

Ha! me too. 20 years rent paid on my share rises this in the past 11months. Expecting another 5 years my month 12.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Peter Hun said:

Ha! me too. 20 years rent paid on my share rises this in the past 11months. Expecting another 5 years my month 12.

Good to hear it Peter.

I wonder how the BTLers in their illiquid assets are feeling right now.

Investing is about timing not about following the herd, if you dont get in at the bottom or you cant get put at the top it's your money the winners get.

A lesson people need to learn.

Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, LookingForLondon said:

The London figures are always interesting. Is it possible to segment the data by property type? I.e. I suspect a very different story for flats vs houses (especially for houses over £1m which we can assume in most cases are at least vaguely desirable - although perhaps not great quality in some areas).

It's been asked before.  I did a set of price range figures which would loosely match property types for a given area but looking at the numbers I dont see it helps so I've given up there.

I'm not sure if we can reliably decide what type of property each and every one is.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Voice of Doom said:

Thanks, Count. As someone looking in London, I am not surprised by what your figures show. And I can see the drops continuing. Aside from the effects on the economy from Covid and Brexit, there are the demographics too:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/07/london-population-decline-first-time-since-1988-report-covid-home-working

 

And the fact everyone wants to move to the shires.  They need to sell first though :lol: 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.