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Every investable or speculative asset has gone mental in the last year?


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11 hours ago, markyh said:

Why? Nothing to gain.  They can buy virgin land cheap and build modern efficient factories, why would they want to buy a massive legacy ice future loss for a bunch of sub optimal ICE factories difficult to convert? 

It's costing VW €70b (that they had budgeted for) to change some (not all) ICE factories to make BEV. 

€70b is a whole stack of brand spanking new Gigafactories each capable of making 500k BEV cars p/a. 

Well there is something to gain as at current valuations, each car that Toyota sells per year is a valuation of 7,000 USD in their share price. Telsa 2million per delivered car. That spread is insane. 

If you genuinely think 2mill is the correct number after accounting for growth prospects then Toyota is massively undervalued and therefore a purchase would give a massive instant uplift to a Telsa share price after accounting for the dilution. 

 

On top you get a mass production and sales network, workforce etc etc. If be seriously tempted with their current valuation. 

Edited by captainb
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On 10/01/2021 at 08:24, brunobald said:

 just look at the iPhone you can buy a decent smart phone now for buttons and there are very few bad ones out there.

and yet in Sep 20 the iphone IOS market share was 46.65% and Dec 11 40.8% - despite all the new competitors coming on line

The clever thing is selling something that should be a commodity as a distinct branded item - bottled water being a prime example.

For many iphone users the buttons argument isn't applicable they behave like someone who would purchase a  premium car brand. The cost of ownership is low because of the resale value. The cost to many users is not material as they say in accountancy terms especially over the past year what else have millions of people had to spend their money on ?

If you are in the Apple eco system either iwatch/iphone or iphone/Macbook it all works together nicely

People pay £1000's for a suit or a dress and more for a traditional watch - perhaps that where the comparison should be and in that context its price really isn't an issue (and actually the competitors probably keep the price down which is good for Apple fans) 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, captainb said:

Well there is something to gain as at current valuations, each car that Toyota sells per year is a valuation of 7,000 USD in their share price. Telsa 2million per delivered car. That spread is insane. 

If you genuinely think 2mill is the correct number after accounting for growth prospects then Toyota is massively undervalued and therefore a purchase would give a massive instant uplift to a Telsa share price after accounting for the dilution. 

 

On top you get a mass production and sales network, workforce etc etc. If be seriously tempted with their current valuation. 

I am not so sure seriously missed the boat with not developing a PHEV (interesting how another Japanese firm Mitsubishi got out the outlander now the biggest selling PHEV in the UK )

The Prius suffers from poor brand image as well despite being so far ahead of its time when it was first launched 

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11 minutes ago, captainb said:

Well there is something to gain as at current valuations, each car that Toyota sells per year is a valuation of 7,000 USD in their share price. Telsa 2million per delivered car. That spread is insane. 

If you genuinely think 2mill is the correct number after accounting for growth prospects then Toyota is massively undervalued and therefore a purchase would give a massive instant uplift to a Telsa share price after accounting for the dilution. 

You make the same mistake as all the short sellers. Tesla is not a car company, it is a Technology, Energy, software company. Telsa sold 500k cars in 2020, not 300k, and plan to be make 20m p/a by 2030. 

I looked for Toyota BEV, couldnt buy one. I looked to charge my current BRV's on a Toyota worldwide charging network, doesn't exist. 

I looked to have a Toyota Solar system installed in my house and a Toyota battery storage system to mach. Doesnt exist. 

I looked for the potential of spending £6k to upgrade by Toyota BEV to full self drive software, doesn't exist.

Toyota make ICE cars, i dont want to buy any ice cars, ever again. They will get zero business from me until they offer what Tesla do. Full Stop. to me, their share value is £0.00. 

There are millions "of me's" in the world. 

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18 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

I am not so sure seriously missed the boat with not developing a PHEV (interesting how another Japanese firm Mitsubishi got out the outlander now the biggest selling PHEV in the UK )

The Prius suffers from poor brand image as well despite being so far ahead of its time when it was first launched 

Prius ownership screams "Poor Asian Taxi Driver" , Hyundai Ioniq is going the same way.   No self respecting upper working/ middle class family wants to lay out a big chunk of change to buy into that Image on the Driveway.

 

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7 minutes ago, markyh said:

You make the same mistake as all the short sellers. Tesla is not a car company, it is a Technology, Energy, software company. Telsa sold 500k cars in 2020, not 300k, and plan to be make 20m p/a by 2030. 

I looked for Toyota BEV, couldnt buy one. I looked to charge my current BRV's on a Toyota worldwide charging network, doesn't exist. 

I looked to have a Toyota Solar system installed in my house and a Toyota battery storage system to mach. Doesnt exist. 

I looked for the potential of spending £6k to upgrade by Toyota BEV to full self drive software, doesn't exist.

Toyota make ICE cars, i dont want to buy any ice cars, ever again. They will get zero business from me until they offer what Tesla do. Full Stop. to me, their share value is £0.00. 

There are millions "of me's" in the world. 

Toyota during a global pandemic is forecast to make a $7billion profit this year. 

That's what matters or should. Just saying their value should be 0.00 based on personal preference is a bizarre emotional way to invest. 

I like tesla. And I couldn't care less what you call them, car, software, tech, moon shot company.. What I care about boringly is translating that tech into profits that can then be returned to shareholders and when and how much that might be. Which is a function of future profits translated into today's share price. The former you can estimate and the later you know. 

For their current valuation to hold true the profits have to be spectacular far in excess of anything forcast, or the profits made by others in the space are incredibly undervalued. 

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11 minutes ago, captainb said:

Toyota during a global pandemic is forecast to make a $7billion profit this year. 

That's what matters or should. Just saying their value should be 0.00 based on personal preference is a bizarre emotional way to invest. 

I like tesla. And I couldn't care less what you call them, car, software, tech, moon shot company.. What I care about boringly is translating that tech into profits that can then be returned to shareholders and when and how much that might be. Which is a function of future profits translated into today's share price. The former you can estimate and the later you know. 

For their current valuation to hold true the profits have to be spectacular far in excess of anything forcast, or the profits made by others in the space are incredibly undervalued. 

What is the projected future profit on something all your customers want to buy, but you don't sell? 

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18 minutes ago, markyh said:

Prius ownership screams "Poor Asian Taxi Driver" , Hyundai Ioniq is going the same way.   No self respecting upper working/ middle class family wants to lay out a big chunk of change to buy into that Image on the Driveway.

 

I think it's a lack of self respect that drives such sentiments actually dude

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1 hour ago, markyh said:

What is the projected future profit on something all your customers want to buy, but you don't sell? 

Evidently that's not true. You don't want to buy their products but millions do as otherwise they wouldn't be making $6billion profit this year in the midst of a pandemic. No one firm corners a whole market as consumers are ultimately different. 

 

Its emotional at best. I personally don't like the iPhone. But it's obviously a decent product from an investment case as it makes such huge profits in mass production. Me just shouting millions don't like how limiting the OS is doesn't take away from that. 

Edited by captainb
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31 minutes ago, captainb said:

Evidently that's not true. You don't want to buy their products but millions do as otherwise they wouldn't be making $6billion profit this year in the midst of a pandemic. No one firm corners a whole market as consumers are ultimately different. 

 

Its emotional at best. I personally don't like the iPhone. But it's obviously a decent product from an investment case as it makes such huge profits in mass production. Me just shouting millions don't like how limiting the OS is doesn't take away from that. 

Wont surprise you, out whole family owns iphones, 14 year old kid is on their 3rd mobile, and 2nd iphone from aged 11, 2 hand me downs and 1st new one iphone SE 64gb (gen 2) this Xmas. They love it. 

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4 hours ago, markyh said:

You make the same mistake as all the short sellers. Tesla is not a car company, it is a Technology, Energy, software company. Telsa sold 500k cars in 2020, not 300k, and plan to be make 20m p/a by 2030. 

I looked for Toyota BEV, couldnt buy one. I looked to charge my current BRV's on a Toyota worldwide charging network, doesn't exist. 

I looked to have a Toyota Solar system installed in my house and a Toyota battery storage system to mach. Doesnt exist. 

I looked for the potential of spending £6k to upgrade by Toyota BEV to full self drive software, doesn't exist.

Toyota make ICE cars, i dont want to buy any ice cars, ever again. They will get zero business from me until they offer what Tesla do. Full Stop. to me, their share value is £0.00. 

There are millions "of me's" in the world. 

The fully electric Toyota BZ is a collaboration between Toyota and Subaru and is due to go into production in Japan this year. 

Toyota%20BZ%20electric%20car%20exclusive

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4 hours ago, markyh said:

You make the same mistake as all the short sellers. Tesla is not a car company, it is a Technology, Energy, software company. Telsa sold 500k cars in 2020, not 300k, and plan to be make 20m p/a by 2030. 

I looked for Toyota BEV, couldnt buy one. I looked to charge my current BRV's on a Toyota worldwide charging network, doesn't exist. 

I looked to have a Toyota Solar system installed in my house and a Toyota battery storage system to mach. Doesnt exist. 

I looked for the potential of spending £6k to upgrade by Toyota BEV to full self drive software, doesn't exist.

Toyota make ICE cars, i dont want to buy any ice cars, ever again. They will get zero business from me until they offer what Tesla do. Full Stop. to me, their share value is £0.00. 

There are millions "of me's" in the world. 

Toyota own lexus

Ux300e is all electric. so that means toyota is far further than you think.

More BS

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Summary
In China and every other geography, collectively, outside Europe, there was 0% year-over-year growth in the EV market for the first 11 months of 2020.

In Europe however, there was 123% growth during the same time period. So, how did Tesla fare in the world’s only major EV growth market for Jan-Nov 2020?

In fact, the Tesla Model 3 was down 14% in Europe for the first 11 months of 2020, and Tesla overall was down 10% for the entire 2020.

Yes, in the world’s only EV growth market for most of 2020, Tesla managed to be down 10%.

With 123% growth in the European EV market, and Tesla down 10% for the year, that means Tesla lost over 50% EV market share.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4398149-in-2020-teslas-sales-fell-10-in-europe

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2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Summary
In China and every other geography, collectively, outside Europe, there was 0% year-over-year growth in the EV market for the first 11 months of 2020.

In Europe however, there was 123% growth during the same time period. So, how did Tesla fare in the world’s only major EV growth market for Jan-Nov 2020?

In fact, the Tesla Model 3 was down 14% in Europe for the first 11 months of 2020, and Tesla overall was down 10% for the entire 2020.

Yes, in the world’s only EV growth market for most of 2020, Tesla managed to be down 10%.

With 123% growth in the European EV market, and Tesla down 10% for the year, that means Tesla lost over 50% EV market share.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4398149-in-2020-teslas-sales-fell-10-in-europe

Irrelevant, Tesla sold every car they could make and deliver in 2020. They will sell every car they can make and deliver in 2021. As long they continue this trend and make more BEV than everyone else, they stay number 1. Simples. They sold and delivered about 110k BEV worldwide in December 2020. 
 

Tesla are pretty much guaranteed to cede Europe no1 position to VW 1st 6-7 months of 2021, until Berlin comes online. Then the fun begins. 
 

Worldwide VW has no chance to beat Tesla for sales in 2021, but might come close. 
 

2022 the race is forever over. Tesla have 5 full chat factories for 2023. 2.5m BEV pa. 

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8 minutes ago, markyh said:

Irrelevant, Tesla sold every car they could make and deliver in 2020. They will sell every car they can make and deliver in 2021. As long they continue this trend and make more BEV than everyone else, they stay number 1. Simples. They sold and delivered about 110k BEV worldwide in December 2020. 
 

Tesla are pretty much guaranteed to cede Europe no1 position to VW 1st 6-7 months of 2021, until Berlin comes online. Then the fun begins. 
 

Worldwide VW has no chance to beat Tesla for sales in 2021, but might come close. 
 

2022 the race is forever over. Tesla have 5 full chat factories for 2023. 2.5m BEV pa. 

once tesla has found all its buyers no one else will want one. who will they sell to then ? 

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3 minutes ago, longgone said:

once tesla has found all its buyers no one else will want one. who will they sell to then ? 

We’ve covered this. Keep up. As ICE go bust 2026 onwards Tesla buy up “brands” for regional sales. Tesla chassis and drivetrain. Regional design bodyshell. Most likely BMW, Honda, Ford, FIAT. 

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3 minutes ago, markyh said:

We’ve covered this. Keep up. As ICE go bust 2026 onwards Tesla buy up “brands” for regional sales. Tesla chassis and drivetrain. Regional design bodyshell. Most likely BMW, Honda, Ford, FIAT. 

better top my oyster card up 

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10 minutes ago, longgone said:

better top my oyster card up 

Inversion helps. Anyone can get a message to the future, just write it now and it can be read in 2030. Getting a reply back to 2021 is the tricky bit! 

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14 hours ago, markyh said:

We’ve covered this. Keep up. As ICE go bust 2026 onwards Tesla buy up “brands” for regional sales. Tesla chassis and drivetrain. Regional design bodyshell. Most likely BMW, Honda, Ford, FIAT. 

I get the idea that you have a tenuous grip on reality.

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