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Every investable or speculative asset has gone mental in the last year?


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I'd say that's fair enough. No way even Elon Musk can keep pace with major mass market manufacturers all coming online for electric car production and distribution at the same time. Interestingly this is satisfying Tesla's mission statement, to promote electric car uptake in general, not just of Tesla cars.

Shhhh, Damn it. You may ruin my sly plan for @Peter Hun to announce he bought an VW ID3 rather than an Tesla to spite me.  

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Doesn't mean Tesla shares might not still be overpriced though ;)

The high share price is more important to the BEV narrative than having big gainz. It sends the message " Making desirable BEV = Massive share price growth" to the General public. Wouldn't be surprised if VW's share price reaches a new ATH in the next few years.

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The high share price is more important to the BEV narrative than having big gainz. It sends the message " Making desirable BEV = Massive share price growth" to the General public. Wouldn't be surprised if VW's share price reaches a new ATH in the next few years.

Possibly. It's remarkable to think that every other car company apart from Tesla and VW is, if I understand the battery situation correctly, maybe 10 years behind. So they're all basically dead. Caveat - it's complicated, I may be wrong.

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if I understand the battery situation correctly, maybe 10 years behind.

Nope, thats markyh rubbish. Battery companies and various labs own the technology, car companies are customers.

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Nope, thats markyh rubbish. Battery companies and various labs own the technology, car companies are customers.

I didn't get it off him. Seriously, Tesla have leaned heavily into their own proprietary battery technology as have, effectively, VW via quantumscape. The existing battery companies have been outflanked. Having said that quantumscape's shares fell 40% today.

Full disclosure - I haven't invested in either of them as I'm not confident enough in my views!?!

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I have to admit, TESLA stock has completely puzzled me. I have been trading for 20 odd years and in all that time I have never seen a stock pumped like this. Even proper tech companies making huge profits like AAPL and GOOG have made gains but that has taken years. We are talking about a car company with very low profit margins and which struggles to make a profit and has seen its stock up 700% in a matter of months! I would really like to know how this was accomplished, by whom and why.

Tesla makes a high margin on all of its cars and this is set to increase further when it introduces its new production and battery technology in the Berlin produced Model Ys and refreshed S and X Models in late 2021.  

It is worth remembering that all of Tesla's current models are based on its 2010 technology, the step forward when the 2020 tech is introduced will be huge. Bad news for the likes of JLR and VAG when their latest models have only reached drivetrain/battery parity with a 2016 Tesla Model S.

That said the current price is running well ahead of reality, already assuming it will reach the target of producing 10m cars a year by 2030; and a fair bit of successfully introducing and becoming the number 1 full self driving system. 

The former is now probably a fairly safe bet, the latter much more questionable. Unlike the competition Autopilot, rather than using super detailed mapping, is based on the belief that its AI system will be able to analyse situations in real time and work out what to do in much the same way as a human driver.

This seems much more of a stretch and could easily be a dead end (Musk believes that Lidar/mapping systems are a dead end). For this reason I sold 80% of my Tesla shares just before Christmas.

       

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Nope, thats markyh rubbish. Battery companies and various labs own the technology, car companies are customers.

Rubbish. You really have no idea what you are talking about with BEV and Tesla, I watched Tesla's Battery Day live presentation in September, did you? 4680 Tabless is Tesla's in house design and patented. will be made by Telsa in house. Panasonic has shit themselves and offered to make it for them under licence. Everyone else is locked out for 25 years. The Tech comes from Maxwell Technologies who, yet again, Tesla bought in early 2020 making them Tesla only, locking off competitors.

https://electrek.co/2020/01/21/tesla-acquisition-maxwell-big-impact-battery-elon-musk/

 

 

 

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I didn't get it off him. Seriously, Tesla have leaned heavily into their own proprietary battery technology as have, effectively, VW via quantumscape. The existing battery companies have been outflanked. Having said that quantumscape's shares fell 40% today.

Full disclosure - I haven't invested in either of them as I'm not confident enough in my views!?!

Make your own mind up, he is just a Hater, Hater's gonna Hate. He has no idea what he is talking about. 

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I didn't get it off him. Seriously, Tesla have leaned heavily into their own proprietary battery technology as have, effectively, VW via quantumscape. The existing battery companies have been outflanked. Having said that quantumscape's shares fell 40% today.

Full disclosure - I haven't invested in either of them as I'm not confident enough in my views!?!

Tesla's new battery and body casting are years ahead of the opposition and will be in production cars by Q3 2021, when the Berlin plant comes online.  If we are talking 5-10yrs ahead solid state may overtake and replace it and Quantumscape may be the company that does it. I was thinking of buying some shares in it last week but missing the big run up put me off. Assuming today's fall was not caused by some problem with the tech emerging, it looks a lot more interesting now.   

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Make your own mind up, he is just a Hater, Hater's gonna Hate. He has no idea what he is talking about. 

Hey chill. Noone knows all the information and we can all be wrong.

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Agreed. 

The self driving is never going to happen (for years) because 99% good enough is not sufficient. Tesla don't have anything else that is exceptional - batteries, motors, drive train or manufacturing process. They can be out engineered by dozens of companies over time.

Not dozens, VW, Toyota or at a push GM perhaps. Even the likes of Ford are probably going to run out of money in the next few years (They are already having to pay +8% to raise money, that's not sustainable).   

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Tesla makes a high margin on all of its cars and this is set to increase further when it introduces its new production and battery technology in the Berlin produced Model Ys and refreshed S and X Models in late 2021.  

It is worth remembering that all of Tesla's current models are based on its 2010 technology, the step forward when the 2020 tech is introduced will be huge. Bad news for the likes of JLR and VAG when their latest models have only reached drivetrain/battery parity with a 2016 Tesla Model S.

That said the current price is running well ahead of reality, already assuming it will reach the target of producing 10m cars a year by 2030; and a fair bit of successfully introducing and becoming the number 1 full self driving system. 

The former is now probably a fairly safe bet, the latter much more questionable. Unlike the competition Autopilot, rather than using super detailed mapping, is based on the belief that its AI system will be able to analyse situations in real time and work out what to do in much the same way as a human driver.

This seems much more of a stretch and could easily be a dead end (Musk believes that Lidar/mapping systems are a dead end). For this reason I sold 80% of my Tesla shares just before Christmas.

       

Yes, Tesla's share price is a cult, not normal stock market 'logic'. I'm probably going to be wiped out on my little Tesla short, but thats the way it goes. Tesla's approach to self driving looks bound to fail in my view, at least in the medium term.

Bear in mind that we are on the cusp of acceptability now, any advantage you may perceive is probably irrelevant to the customer. Battery packaging?? Autopilot? who cares? Given a choice customers are not buying tesla because of the age old facts around what a car is.

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Tesla makes a high margin on all of its cars and this is set to increase further when it introduces its new production and battery technology in the Berlin produced Model Ys and refreshed S and X Models in late 2021.  

It is worth remembering that all of Tesla's current models are based on its 2010 technology, the step forward when the 2020 tech is introduced will be huge. Bad news for the likes of JLR and VAG when their latest models have only reached drivetrain/battery parity with a 2016 Tesla Model S.

That said the current price is running well ahead of reality, already assuming it will reach the target of producing 10m cars a year by 2030; and a fair bit of successfully introducing and becoming the number 1 full self driving system. 

The former is now probably a fairly safe bet, the latter much more questionable. Unlike the competition Autopilot, rather than using super detailed mapping, is based on the belief that its AI system will be able to analyse situations in real time and work out what to do in much the same way as a human driver.

This seems much more of a stretch and could easily be a dead end (Musk believes that Lidar/mapping systems are a dead end). For this reason I sold 80% of my Tesla shares just before Christmas.

       

Whats the margin on a tesla car? Gross and net.. 

 

Quick Google suggests 20% gross margin on a tesla against 17% on Toyota. So not that different,and tesla lower than other high end. 

You then have tesla admin and other costs v legacy. Given the relatively low volume on tesla you would expect that net margin per car to fall below that on legacy. Old HR cost etc is split between a lower number of cars. 

 

Not that high margin. 

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Yes, Tesla's share price is a cult, not normal stock market 'logic'. I'm probably going to be wiped out on my little Tesla short, but thats the way it goes. Tesla's approach to self driving looks bound to fail in my view, at least in the medium term.

Bear in mind that we are on the cusp of acceptability now, any advantage you may perceive is probably irrelevant to the customer. Battery packaging?? Autopilot? who cares? Given a choice customers are not buying tesla because of the age old facts around what a car is.

Ahhh so now we understand the hate, you have to, you have money at stake. You hating Tesla because you are short is me liking Bitcoin because i'm long. May i remind you with all the "standard cars just good enough. Unless you want a tiny 150 mile BEV with no tech like the Skoda Citygo, you cant get under £20k.  The Mini cooper BEV is still £25k and only does 150 miles too. and is still small 3 door with tiny boot.

No one makes 250+ mile BEV yet you can Buy "C" class or bigger for £25k or less, always a compromise, low spec, small size, lower range. 

Tesla will, and they key is construction and batteries, they have both. No Gigapresses in the VW factories. I would love it if Tesla now buys the Gigapress manufacturer, to ensure they profit from all the other legacy ICE needed it in the future to compete with them. 

Good luck with the short, avoid the Tesla press then, it's always a long steam of goodnews these days. Not what you will want to hear. 

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My Tesla short is a little bet. I'm long Lithium miners, up 50% since December in EMH for instance.

Unlike you I'm not emotionally attached to companies I invest in (Hater.. lol), EMH may well end up suppling  Tesla in German. I'm a fan of Tesla, but their share price is absolute ******** and fanboys like you do them a great disservice with the drivel you come out with.

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My Tesla short is a little bet. I'm long Lithium miners, up 50% since December in EMH for instance.

Unlike you I'm not emotionally attached to companies I invest in (Hater.. lol), EMH may well end up suppling  Tesla in German. I'm a fan of Tesla, but their share price is absolute ******** and fanboys like you do them a great disservice with the drivel you come out with.

which miners have you invested in ?

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My Tesla short is a little bet. I'm long Lithium miners, up 50% since December in EMH for instance.

Unlike you I'm not emotionally attached to companies I invest in (Hater.. lol), EMH may well end up suppling  Tesla in German. I'm a fan of Tesla, but their share price is absolute ******** and fanboys like you do them a great disservice with the drivel you come out with.

Bought my lithium miners in 2016, same time as Tesla, seen 200-300%.  Sold all but 1 to buy more Tesla and Bitcoin investments. Just Livent Corp left, +135%. 

I thought i had big balls to buy more Bitcoin @ $10500, but shorting Telsa, that's big cahoona's there. Fair play. Cant wish you luck but do hope a stop loss helps not wipe you out. 

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which miners have you invested in ?

EMH, SAV, ZNWD. Czech, German and Portuguese

European all of them, all mines need to open. Eight fold increase in demand expected.

I missed the Cornish Lithium crowd funding, unfortunately

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Bought my lithium miners in 2016, same time as Tesla, seen 200-300%.  Sold all but 1 to buy more Tesla and Bitcoin investments. Just Livent Corp left, +135%. 

I thought i had big balls to buy more Bitcoin @ $10500, but shorting Telsa, that's big cahoona's there. Fair play. Cant wish you luck but do hope a stop loss helps not wipe you out. 

My Tesla short is 3k. Nothing really.

Lithium boomed then busted in 2018. Too early.

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Grantham cited shares in the electric car maker as an example of the market bubble. “As a model 3 owner, my personal favourite Tesla tidbit is that its market capitalisation, now over $600bn, amounts to over $1.25m per car sold each year versus $9,000 per car for General Motors. What has 1929 got to equal that?"

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On 05/01/2021 at 14:41, markyh said:

Bought my lithium miners in 2016, same time as Tesla, seen 200-300%.  Sold all but 1 to buy more Tesla and Bitcoin investments. Just Livent Corp left, +135%. 

I thought i had big balls to buy more Bitcoin @ $10500, but shorting Telsa, that's big cahoona's there. Fair play. Cant wish you luck but do hope a stop loss helps not wipe you out. 

With the kind of amazing market plays you have made, you should be in a mansion somewhere, sipping Crystal beside an indoor swimming pool filled with bikini clad beauties, yet, here you are, on a house price crash forum.

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1 minute ago, gerkin said:

With the kind of amazing market plays you have made, you should be in a mansion somewhere, sipping Crystal beside an indoor swimming pool filled with bikini clad beauties, yet, here you are, on a house price crash forum.

Oi! You need some diversity training - making assumptions about sexual orientation. You never worked for a big US co. did you?

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41 minutes ago, gerkin said:

With the kind of amazing market plays you have made, you should be in a mansion somewhere, sipping Crystal beside an indoor swimming pool filled with bikini clad beauties, yet, here you are, on a house price crash forum.

Sadly when you are only buying in £1000- £2000 lots for long term holds in 2016, % gainz are great, £££ good but not life changing.  How many people do you know who own 50 shares in Tesla? 

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On 05/01/2021 at 16:24, Peter Hun said:

My Tesla short is 3k. Nothing really.

Oh dear. last 2 days not been kind to you eh, new Telsa ATH, trading over $800. Up over $70 a share. Feeling the margin calls yet?  bung another £2k into the account to cover, i'm sure this will come good one day. 

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