Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Every investable or speculative asset has gone mental in the last year?


Recommended Posts

 

Pick a share that has fallen a lot and will soon recover, in my case Rolls Royce and a few others. Most of the banks are well down still, as is Oil. I did make a good win on Synairgen which was high risk. Lithium miners  (EMH, Zinnwald, SYN) are look very hot now, up 50% or more on them.

Fact is anyone could have made a good rise this year, its been remarkably easy.

My funds, Fundsmith and Lindsell train and been disappointing

Outstanding. Of course statistically you're in a minority, by definition only very few people can beat the index well enough to make it worthwhile. I'm just not interested enough in companies to do the due diligence required. But fair play to you.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 240
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

 

This is how it works.

And it's been used since 3rd Jan 2009

You can even watch the transactions go through live here.

We were talking about XRP. Calling Bitcoin a payment system is a stretch, its unusable as such and too expensive. The only purpose of it is to buy and hold so the price rises due to rarity. That's a Ponzi scheme, end of.

Now, Ethereum, that is a viable system

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Outstanding. Of course statistically you're in a minority, by definition only very few people can beat the index well enough to make it worthwhile. I'm just not interested enough in companies to do the due diligence required. But fair play to you.

2020 has been an exceptional year. Making money in this market does not require you to be a genius, look at Markyh, he's a total dimwit and he's coining it.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

2020 has been an exceptional year. Making money in this market does not require you to be a genius, look at Markyh, he's a total dimwit and he's coining it.

If I were to consider individual shares this year then I'd have to do it every year, and I may mess it up sometimes. I'm happy enough with my funds, but cheers for the insights :)

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Overlooking the fact that Toyota ( i think) developed the first mass market hybrid - the Prius. Toyota has significant experience in battery tech but currently lacks the capacity. They produce 1.5M hybrids per year and are a Japanese company; Japan has some of the most stringent air quality laws in the world. 

They've got 10 years to move from hybrid to eclectic. Let someone else suck up the costs (Tesla and her investors) of how it'll work and then replicate. I'm not even betting on Toyota I'm merely pointing out that Tesla is a long, long, long way from getting close to a scale where it'll justify it's extraordinary valuation and it doesn't have a monopoly on BEVs. 

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/electric-cars/86169/best-electric-cars-buy-20202021

This is with car companies having ten years left before they need to switch to pure leccy and already Tesla is becoming an expensive niche product but not the fastest, nor the best performance, nor the best range. I'm willing to bet VAG sell more BEV in five years than Tesla. 

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/volkswagen/

Tesla is done. At the very best they strip out the tech part of their business (which isn't building crap plastic cars with serious reliability and snagging problems) and OEM their battery, drive train and self driving tech. 

The current valuation is an indication that Tesla will make massive profits and to do that they'll need to get costs way down and still sell about four times as many cars as Toyota (assuming similar margins). Wont happen. 

Agreed. 

The self driving is never going to happen (for years) because 99% good enough is not sufficient. Tesla don't have anything else that is exceptional - batteries, motors, drive train or manufacturing process. They can be out engineered by dozens of companies over time.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

If I were to consider individual shares this year then I'd have to do it every year, and I may mess it up sometimes. I'm happy enough with my funds, but cheers for the insights :)

Last  year I moved out of funds, I'll move back in when the opportunities disappear later this year.

Lindsell Train said they were exasperated by the low valuations of their holding stocks - I'm pretty sure they will bounce back and the fund will do very well (I've still got 10% in LT) this year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Last  year I moved out of funds, I'll move back in when the opportunities disappear later this year.

 

Yeah fair enough. I wouldn't really realise what are and aren't special opportunities in that light ;)

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Overlooking the fact that Toyota ( i think) developed the first mass market hybrid - the Prius. Toyota has significant experience in battery tech but currently lacks the capacity. They produce 1.5M hybrids per year and are a Japanese company; Japan has some of the most stringent air quality laws in the world. 

They've got 10 years to move from hybrid to eclectic. Let someone else suck up the costs (Tesla and her investors) of how it'll work and then replicate. I'm not even betting on Toyota I'm merely pointing out that Tesla is a long, long, long way from getting close to a scale where it'll justify it's extraordinary valuation and it doesn't have a monopoly on BEVs. 

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/electric-cars/86169/best-electric-cars-buy-20202021

This is with car companies having ten years left before they need to switch to pure leccy and already Tesla is becoming an expensive niche product but not the fastest, nor the best performance, nor the best range. I'm willing to bet VAG sell more BEV in five years than Tesla. 

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/volkswagen/

Tesla is done. At the very best they strip out the tech part of their business (which isn't building crap plastic cars with serious reliability and snagging problems) and OEM their battery, drive train and self driving tech. 

The current valuation is an indication that Tesla will make massive profits and to do that they'll need to get costs way down and still sell about four times as many cars as Toyota (assuming similar margins). Wont happen. 

Where to start. VW 1m BEV on the road by 2023? Wow. Have you seen Tesla 2020's results? 500k BEV, on the road, in 2020, during a Pandemic. Exactly as forecast in 2014. and that is from 1.5 Factories.  Forecast for 2021, 1m BEV cars, 2 years ahead of VW.  

By 2023 Tesla will have Freemont, China, Texas, Berlin and Nevada Gigafactories at full production and be making 2.5m BEV a year, and selling every one. they will have announced several other new Gigafactories buy 2023 too, all will be running to full production my 2030. 10m+ cars p/a. 

Toyota copying Telsa Tech. Good luck. The 4680 Tabless Cell is Tesla's Patented design, not Panasonic. Panasonic and CATL can only produce them under licence  for Tesla. Everyone else can wait 25 years. Or buy for Tesla at 100% markup, what they can spare. Also Tesla are moving to make their own 4680 batteries in scale at Texas. But are keeping large 2170 contracts with Panasonic and CATL as as Elon points out, "It's all about batteries baby" 

Lol. you post a 10 best BEV for 2021 in the UK.  Telsa is No.1 and have 2 cars in the top 4.  Tesla have not launched their £25k cheap BEV yet, it will be on sale worldwide in 2025, and this time is more likely to be on sale in Europe first, USA second, as our market for c class hatch is way bigger than in the USA. 

It will be better and faster than Zoe, ID3 , ID3 clones , and crucially, at £25k with a 250 mile range. It has been calculated with maths that the 4680 cells needed for 250 miles of range will be 1/4 the cost of todays 2170 cells used by everyone else. Less than £2k of batteries per car. Spec wise, no one is buying the competition. Tesla will make money on this car, all the competition will sell at a loss trying to compete.

Ow wow a Porsche Taycan Turbo is faster than a Tesla, I should bloody hope so for £140k.  Me, cant afford one, never will, but, a Tesla Model 3 Performance , 0-60 3.1s for £56,500.  Hmmmm, Porsche managed to be 0.3s faster, if you pay an extra £83.5k for the pleasure. 

Imagine the embaressment of being in you hughly expensive standard Porsche Taycan at the lights, only O-60 in 4 seconds, and the oik in the TM3 Performance next to you kicks you ass because he is 0.9 second quicker than you, and drivers don't matter in BEV, you just stamp the throttle (or if you are experienced with BEV, Stamp the brake, then stamp the throttle, then release the brake on go, slightly quicker as no throttle travel time needed) 

Like i said, watch the cracks worldwide in legacy ice in 2025/6 when Telsa are selling "cheap" models too.

Yes such convincing posts. Try harder, 3/10 . 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Where to start. VW 1m BEV on the road by 2023? Wow. Have you seen Tesla 2020's results? 500k BEV, on the road, in 2020, during a Pandemic. Exactly as forecast in 2014. and that is from 1.5 Factories.  Forecast for 2021, 1m BEV cars, 2 years ahead of VW.  

By 2023 Tesla will have Freemont, China, Texas, Berlin and Nevada Gigafactories at full production and be making 2.5m BEV a year, and selling every one. they will have announced several other new Gigafactories buy 2023 too, all will be running to full production my 2030. 10m+ cars p/a. 

Toyota copying Telsa Tech. Good luck. The 4680 Tabless Cell is Tesla's Patented design, not Panasonic. Panasonic and CATL can only produce them under licence  for Tesla. Everyone else can wait 25 years. Or buy for Tesla at 100% markup, what they can spare. Also Tesla are moving to make their own 4680 batteries in scale at Texas. But are keeping large 2170 contracts with Panasonic and CATL as as Elon points out, "It's all about batteries baby" 

Lol. you post a 10 best BEV for 2021 in the UK.  Telsa is No.1 and have 2 cars in the top 4.  Tesla have not launched their £25k cheap BEV yet, it will be on sale worldwide in 2025, and this time is more likely to be on sale in Europe first, USA second, as our market for c class hatch is way bigger than in the USA. 

It will be better and faster than Zoe, ID3 , ID3 clones , and crucially, at £25k with a 250 mile range. It has been calculated with maths that the 4680 cells needed for 250 miles of range will be 1/4 the cost of todays 2170 cells used by everyone else. Less than £2k of batteries per car. Spec wise, no one is buying the competition. Tesla will make money on this car, all the competition will sell at a loss trying to compete.

Ow wow a Porsche Taycan Turbo is faster than a Tesla, I should bloody hope so for £140k.  Me, cant afford one, never will, but, a Tesla Model 3 Performance , 0-60 3.1s for £56,500.  Hmmmm, Porsche managed to be 0.3s faster, if you pay an extra £83.5k for the pleasure. 

Imagine the embaressment of being in you hughly expensive standard Porsche Taycan at the lights, only O-60 in 4 seconds, and the oik in the TM3 Performance next to you kicks you ass because he is 0.9 second quicker than you, and drivers don't matter in BEV, you just stamp the throttle (or if you are experienced with BEV, Stamp the brake, then stamp the throttle, then release the brake on go, slightly quicker as no throttle travel time needed) 

Like i said, watch the cracks worldwide in legacy ice in 2025/6 when Telsa are selling "cheap" models too.

Yes such convincing posts. Try harder, 3/10 . 

I thought Tesla allowed anyone to use their patents for free as a principle? I wouldn't be surprised if there were major caveats though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

I thought Tesla allowed anyone to use their patents for free as a principle? I wouldn't be surprised if there were major caveats though.

Original designs of drivetrain for the Model S yes. The didn't really have any patents back then. dont forget Tesla bought German Robotics companies the Merc were using, and then told Merc to ****** off, made the work 100% for Tesla.

Caused huge headaches and delays for the German auto industry.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Agreed. 

The self driving is never going to happen (for years) because 99% good enough is not sufficient. 

Won't ever happen on UK roads such as they exist now. You only have to think about what a group of drivers actually do in a single track muddy lane, at night, when four or five cars meet on a bend and it's 100 yards in reverse to the nearest (very tight) place to pass. 

Yes, you can take over the controls, but that isn't self-driving. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Won't ever happen on UK roads such as they exist now. You only have to think about what a group of drivers actually do in a single track muddy lane, at night, when four or five cars meet on a bend and it's 100 yards in reverse to the nearest (very tight) place to pass. 

Yes, you can take over the controls, but that isn't self-driving. 

Economic opportunity. All single lane roads physically possible will be widened via compulsory purchase , and appropriately marked. Those few that can’t. The cars will talk to each other. Your car won’t enter a single track road or leave a passing bay if the two cars talking together can’t calculate the route estimating passing bay arrival times. This is why manual cars will be banned. To dumb. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Won't ever happen on UK roads such as they exist now. You only have to think about what a group of drivers actually do in a single track muddy lane, at night, when four or five cars meet on a bend and it's 100 yards in reverse to the nearest (very tight) place to pass. 

Yes, you can take over the controls, but that isn't self-driving. 

Auto driving on motorways would be handy, though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Where to start. VW 1m BEV on the road by 2023? Wow. Have you seen Tesla 2020's results? 500k BEV, on the road, in 2020, during a Pandemic. Exactly as forecast in 2014. and that is from 1.5 Factories.  Forecast for 2021, 1m BEV cars, 2 years ahead of VW.  

By 2023 Tesla will have Freemont, China, Texas, Berlin and Nevada Gigafactories at full production and be making 2.5m BEV a year, and selling every one. they will have announced several other new Gigafactories buy 2023 too, all will be running to full production my 2030. 10m+ cars p/a. 

Toyota copying Telsa Tech. Good luck. The 4680 Tabless Cell is Tesla's Patented design, not Panasonic. Panasonic and CATL can only produce them under licence  for Tesla. Everyone else can wait 25 years. Or buy for Tesla at 100% markup, what they can spare. Also Tesla are moving to make their own 4680 batteries in scale at Texas. But are keeping large 2170 contracts with Panasonic and CATL as as Elon points out, "It's all about batteries baby" 

Lol. you post a 10 best BEV for 2021 in the UK.  Telsa is No.1 and have 2 cars in the top 4.  Tesla have not launched their £25k cheap BEV yet, it will be on sale worldwide in 2025, and this time is more likely to be on sale in Europe first, USA second, as our market for c class hatch is way bigger than in the USA. 

It will be better and faster than Zoe, ID3 , ID3 clones , and crucially, at £25k with a 250 mile range. It has been calculated with maths that the 4680 cells needed for 250 miles of range will be 1/4 the cost of todays 2170 cells used by everyone else. Less than £2k of batteries per car. Spec wise, no one is buying the competition. Tesla will make money on this car, all the competition will sell at a loss trying to compete.

Ow wow a Porsche Taycan Turbo is faster than a Tesla, I should bloody hope so for £140k.  Me, cant afford one, never will, but, a Tesla Model 3 Performance , 0-60 3.1s for £56,500.  Hmmmm, Porsche managed to be 0.3s faster, if you pay an extra £83.5k for the pleasure. 

Imagine the embaressment of being in you hughly expensive standard Porsche Taycan at the lights, only O-60 in 4 seconds, and the oik in the TM3 Performance next to you kicks you ass because he is 0.9 second quicker than you, and drivers don't matter in BEV, you just stamp the throttle (or if you are experienced with BEV, Stamp the brake, then stamp the throttle, then release the brake on go, slightly quicker as no throttle travel time needed) 

Like i said, watch the cracks worldwide in legacy ice in 2025/6 when Telsa are selling "cheap" models too.

Yes such convincing posts. Try harder, 3/10 . 

Regardless of that waffle, Europe, by far the biggest EV market, has see Tesla market share plummet from 33%, to 15 % and heading down.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Economic opportunity. All single lane roads physically possible will be widened via compulsory purchase , and appropriately marked. Those few that can’t. The cars will talk to each other. Your car won’t enter a single track road or leave a passing bay if the two cars talking together can’t calculate the route estimating passing bay arrival times. This is why manual cars will be banned. To dumb. 

All this to justify Tesla's share price.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Yep. Far better than the morons driving up your **** at 80mph.

I had a courtesy car, a Hyundai, with lane following and intelligent cruise control. So in theory it kinda drives itself on the motorway. To be honest I found it easier to drive with that turned off as you were constantly trying to second guess the little mistakes it kept making (like literally driving about 3 inches away from the car in the adjacent lane).

Ok I'm sure Tesla is much better than Hyundai at this but there still seems to be a way to go.

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Where to start. VW 1m BEV on the road by 2023? Wow. Have you seen Tesla 2020's results? 500k BEV, on the road, in 2020, during a Pandemic. Exactly as forecast in 2014. and that is from 1.5 Factories.  Forecast for 2021, 1m BEV cars, 2 years ahead of VW.  

By 2023 Tesla will have Freemont, China, Texas, Berlin and Nevada Gigafactories at full production and be making 2.5m BEV a year, and selling every one. they will have announced several other new Gigafactories buy 2023 too, all will be running to full production my 2030. 10m+ cars p/a. 

Toyota copying Telsa Tech. Good luck. The 4680 Tabless Cell is Tesla's Patented design, not Panasonic. Panasonic and CATL can only produce them under licence  for Tesla. Everyone else can wait 25 years. Or buy for Tesla at 100% markup, what they can spare. Also Tesla are moving to make their own 4680 batteries in scale at Texas. But are keeping large 2170 contracts with Panasonic and CATL as as Elon points out, "It's all about batteries baby" 

Lol. you post a 10 best BEV for 2021 in the UK.  Telsa is No.1 and have 2 cars in the top 4.  Tesla have not launched their £25k cheap BEV yet, it will be on sale worldwide in 2025, and this time is more likely to be on sale in Europe first, USA second, as our market for c class hatch is way bigger than in the USA. 

It will be better and faster than Zoe, ID3 , ID3 clones , and crucially, at £25k with a 250 mile range. It has been calculated with maths that the 4680 cells needed for 250 miles of range will be 1/4 the cost of todays 2170 cells used by everyone else. Less than £2k of batteries per car. Spec wise, no one is buying the competition. Tesla will make money on this car, all the competition will sell at a loss trying to compete.

Ow wow a Porsche Taycan Turbo is faster than a Tesla, I should bloody hope so for £140k.  Me, cant afford one, never will, but, a Tesla Model 3 Performance , 0-60 3.1s for £56,500.  Hmmmm, Porsche managed to be 0.3s faster, if you pay an extra £83.5k for the pleasure. 

Imagine the embaressment of being in you hughly expensive standard Porsche Taycan at the lights, only O-60 in 4 seconds, and the oik in the TM3 Performance next to you kicks you ass because he is 0.9 second quicker than you, and drivers don't matter in BEV, you just stamp the throttle (or if you are experienced with BEV, Stamp the brake, then stamp the throttle, then release the brake on go, slightly quicker as no throttle travel time needed) 

Like i said, watch the cracks worldwide in legacy ice in 2025/6 when Telsa are selling "cheap" models too.

Yes such convincing posts. Try harder, 3/10 . 

Not on the road in five years, but out sell in 2025, and that's just VAG. The challenge is that Tesla has to get market share AND expand production, VAG just modifies production. This is merely to demonstrate that the valuation is utter nonsense. VAG has market share, profits and massive sunk cost fixed assets for production.

Elon is right - and there's a new technology out there now providing to be much better than standard batteries. Aluminium-Air. Japan was betting on hydrogen I think and simply to lower emissions across the full fleet. But don't get hung up on Toyota copying Tesla. Like I say at best Tesla's future is OEM - and still not worth the valuation. 

The point of the best BEV cars is that this time even five years ago it would have been 100% Tesla. Now it is 20% Tesla. There is rivalry, there are other options and the giants will go after preserving market share. Easy to show rapid growth as a start-up but now what is the compelling case to buy a Tesla? They are expensive, they are not reliable.

You joke about the Porsche but this is how performance cars work. Shaving off another fraction of a second takes huge performance and that comes with a pricier tag. What I'm getting at is there's no USP any longer. Tesla aren't the fastest, nor the cheapest, nor the most reliable, nor the most comfortable. I got them as a status symbol but I think that's going/gone. The new £25K Tesla remains to be seen but it will be interesting. I'm sure it'll still be impressive. He did though say this would happen in 2018 within three years. Don't get me wrong, I think what Elon is doing is great, especially Space-X. I also think Tesla is a cool company - it's just not worth close to its current valuation. 

You have your money where you mouth is but you justify the current share price by suggesting Tesla will manufacture 40% of global cars by 2030?

I'm not trying to convince you of anything, more I'm trying for you to convince me - get my head around why you think the company is worth what it is? 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Regardless of that waffle, Europe, by far the biggest EV market, has see Tesla market share plummet from 33%, to 15 % and heading down.

And yet Tesla sell every one of the 500k cars that can physically make. We are so upset. Let’s review at the end of 2022 when Berlin has been at full production for a year. Keep you short term statistics, in fact invest on them in legacy ice, you’re sure to make a  killing. 
 

I told you , every legacy ice maker in Europe will only sell p/a enough BEV to have zero fleet emissions fines from the EU.  You just watch. 2021 will prove this with VW. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Auto driving on motorways would be handy, though.

It does this to be fair. I've been in a few (brand new - ironic because the taxi driver's normal tesla was back in the shop for repairs.... again). drove itself to the airport - road noise was awful and interior looked like a 2002 Mondeo with an ipad for a dash. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

And yet Tesla sell every one of the 500k cars that can physically make. We are so upset. Let’s review at the end of 2022 when Berlin has been at full production for a year. Keep you short term statistics, in fact invest on them in legacy ice, you’re sure to make a  killing. 
 

I told you , every legacy ice maker in Europe will only sell p/a enough BEV to have zero fleet emissions fines from the EU.  You just watch. 2021 will prove this with VW. 

I think pretty much all car manufacturers sell all the cars they make don't they?

Why would any company in its right mind not adopt the profit maximising condition? If that is doing the minimum to avoid fines from the EU then fair enough. Do you honestly think that come 2030 they'll still only be able to produce tiny volumes of BEV? OR.... do you think they'll be able to ramp production OR..... perhaps get the EU to move the goalposts? imagine that. Teslas share valuation contingent on the EU not being swayed by the automakers. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.