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Every investable or speculative asset has gone mental in the last year?


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It just tells you where most of the fruits of our work efforts and productivity has gone over the last 40  years and counting, covid just gave it a boost as there is always opportunity in chaos and disaster.  Instead of going into public infrastructure and services, wages, health in all its forms, housing and numerous other places money should visit before working  its way to the top it now just goes to the top and stays there floating around between asset classes and collectables.

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what profits?

Well, when you are growing 25% YOY, you tend to reinvest your profits to grow the Business. Telsa will be 40% of the new car market. do the compounding math, @ 25% p/a growth , double time is 3 years . How many years until Tesla makes 40% of all new cars? lets make it easy and say to total annual new car market will not grow ever from 2019, so it will be all about market share. 

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Well, when you are growing 25% YOY, you tend to reinvest your profits to grow the Business. Telsa will be 40% of the new car market. do the compounding math, @ 25% p/a growth , double time is 3 years . How many years until Tesla makes 40% of all new cars? lets make it easy and say to total annual new car market will not grow ever from 2019, so it will be all about market share. 

How can they reinvest a profit they don't make? You mean to say instead their cost base is higher because they're going for 'land and expand' rather than maximising profitability? That's interesting then to pin the 677BN valuation on it. It's insane.

Toyota make more cars in two months than Tesla has done in it's lifetime. You can have a double time of three years if you want. How ling until it's 40% of all new car sales (literally LMAO with this - what car manufacturer currently accounts for 40% of all car sales :D).

They're gaining market share from a very low base but their cars are simply awful. The tech could be the most amazing thing in the world (but they're losing ground rapidly) but the cars have a worse reliability issue than Land Rover!

Fair enough the share price has gone crazy (totally divorced from fundamentals)  but they aren't even close to being worth it. I'm seeing cars coming out from Hyundai and BMW that rival the battery and driving performance of Tesla with a better track record for reliability. 

It's only worth what it is because people think it is. Share price wise it might go a $1,2,5 10Trn, but the company isn't close to this valuation. 

Further reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

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Well, when you are growing 25% YOY, you tend to reinvest your profits to grow the Business. Telsa will be 40% of the new car market. do the compounding math, @ 25% p/a growth , double time is 3 years . How many years until Tesla makes 40% of all new cars? lets make it easy and say to total annual new car market will not grow ever from 2019, so it will be all about market share. 

That's all balance sheet reinvestment. 

If they made a profit on each car they sell it would still show in the p&l. 

Whether they decide to reinvest that profit building a factory or pay a dividend is irrelevant to whether it was made or not. 

 

Only counter is they are low margin at the moment but hope to increase the cost of their product with associated increase in margin Once they get x % of market. Not sure that works with cars given competition and low margin on mainstream cars. 

 

Not to say they aren't a good company and I actually quite like the new model S. 

Just seen all this before on a different level. Vodaphones March upto 400p in 1999 was less ridiculous but remember huge paper profits then down to 100p. All with the will turn a corner to 500p tommorow all the way down. Now? About 120p last time I looked and still churning out larger profits as a mature buisness than it ever did in 1999. 

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How can they reinvest a profit they don't make? You mean to say instead their cost base is higher because they're going for 'land and expand' rather than maximising profitability? That's interesting then to pin the 677BN valuation on it. It's insane.

Toyota make more cars in two months than Tesla has done in it's lifetime. You can have a double time of three years if you want. How ling until it's 40% of all new car sales (literally LMAO with this - what car manufacturer currently accounts for 40% of all car sales :D).

They're gaining market share from a very low base but their cars are simply awful. The tech could be the most amazing thing in the world (but they're losing ground rapidly) but the cars have a worse reliability issue than Land Rover!

Fair enough the share price has gone crazy (totally divorced from fundamentals)  but they aren't even close to being worth it. I'm seeing cars coming out from Hyundai and BMW that rival the battery and driving performance of Tesla with a better track record for reliability. 

It's only worth what it is because people think it is. Share price wise it might go a $1,2,5 10Trn, but the company isn't close to this valuation. 

Further reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

Toyota are stuck selling cars that are being banned from new sale everywhere but Africa in 10 years. They dont have a single BEV model on the market. They will go bust trying to fudge the transition. 

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Just seen all this before on a different level. Vodaphones March upto 400p in 1999 was less ridiculous but remember huge paper profits then down to 100p. All with the will turn a corner to 500p tommorow all the way down. Now? About 120p last time I looked and still churning out larger profits as a mature buisness than it ever did in 1999. 

Do you remember Palm Inc? They made a range of handheld electronic organisers in the 1990s. The company was briefly valued at $80bn making it bigger than Boeing on the strength of its 'revolutionary' computing prowess.

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Toyota are stuck selling cars that are being banned from new sale everywhere but Africa in 10 years. They dont have a single BEV model on the market. They will go bust trying to fudge the transition. 

You're whistling through your cheeks again, Benito.

 

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34896309/toyota-electric-cars-plans-revealed/

Toyota has been slow to adopt EVs into its lineup. It’s not because it lacks the technology, it’s been the king of hybrids since the introduction of the Prius. It’s also been investing in fuel-cell vehicles like the Mirai, and it sells the UX300e in Europe and China. But as sales for EVs tick up, the automaker seems finally ready to expand its portfolio.

Today the automaker announced that it had developed an electric SUV for Europe that will be based on Toyota’s e-TNGA modular EV platform and will be previewed sometime in the next couple of months.

As for the US, Automotive News reported last week that Bob Carter, head of sales for Toyota North America stated that an EV is coming to the United States. We’re not sure which brand will be the first with an EV, but at least we know something electric will come from the Japanese automaker.

During a presentation for its European market, Koji Toyoshima Toyota’s deputy chief officer of its ZEV Factory said that the automaker intends to globally sell 5.5 million electrified vehicles every year by 2025. In that same time frame Toyoshima said that Toyota would introduce 60 new electrified vehicles. These numbers include hybrids, plug-in hybrids, EVs, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.

Toyoshima also noted that Toyota would have a mass-produced electric vehicle using a solid-state battery pack in the first half of the 2020s. A bold statement and potentially an EV game-changer since solid-state batteries charge quicker and offer more range in the same size pack as traditional lithium-ion batteries. It's also potentially a few years earlier than the company has previously stated when it said it would have the technology ready in 2025.

As for why Toyota has waited as long as it has to enter the EV market, Andrea Carlucci director of product and marketing for Toyota Europe said that its hybrid technology has allowed the company to comply with tough emissions standards in Europe without jumping to early into EVs. “However, hybrid success has given us the foundation we need, for other electrified powertrains – which will be introduced when the time, the market, and the infrastructure are right. And that time is getting closer.”

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Do you remember Palm Inc? They made a range of handheld electronic organisers in the 1990s. The company was briefly valued at $80bn making it bigger than Boeing on the strength of its 'revolutionary' computing prowess.

Ah yes! With the plastic pencil thing!  Might have even owned one for my sins... 

I mean rollerdex's were big buisness in 1990,so expand that market by 25% in perpetuity... 

 

The parallels are clear its just a bigger scale this time. Small scale investors jumping in, investing in companies to actually generate a profit being described as "quaint", new normal, all stuff from 1999/2000 now being repeated for a new generation. 

I mean I still wish I invested in amazon in 1999 but for every amazon there was 1000 palm Inc's. Cisco systems IIRC is still down 50% from peak 20 years of very good trading later.

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Yep, so it would seem. I now freely admit I do not understand large scale economics. My household budget, that I understand! We're in the middle of a pandemic slashing profits for many (though not all) companies, with unprecedented Government support in many areas, unemployment rising despite that support. How nearly all asset classes have performed at near recent record breaking levels is beyond me. Let's say the Pandemic had not happened, all these asset classes would have performed worse!?!? Go figure! 

 

It's almost as if the mind boggling amounts of money printing in the last year, on top of the massive amounts of money printing every year since the 2007/8 financial crisis, have finally resulted in tangible assets becoming a lot more expensive relative to said money.

You can even see it in the cost of consumer goods - pretty much any piece of in-demand tech is coming at a premium, if you can find it.  And food price inflation took off almost immediately with the start of the lockdowns.

 

It's inflation time.

 

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It's almost as if the mind boggling amounts of money printing in the last year, on top of the massive amounts of money printing every year since the 2007/8 financial crisis, have finally resulted in tangible assets becoming a lot more expensive relative to said money.

You can even see it in the cost of consumer goods - pretty much any piece of in-demand tech is coming at a premium, if you can find it.  And food price inflation took off almost immediately with the start of the lockdowns.

 

It's inflation time.

 

Yea, sadly the torrent of printy printy has finally filtered into everything, good for debt holders though.  

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You're whistling through your cheeks again, Benito.

 

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34896309/toyota-electric-cars-plans-revealed/

Toyota has been slow to adopt EVs into its lineup. It’s not because it lacks the technology, it’s been the king of hybrids since the introduction of the Prius. It’s also been investing in fuel-cell vehicles like the Mirai, and it sells the UX300e in Europe and China. But as sales for EVs tick up, the automaker seems finally ready to expand its portfolio.

Today the automaker announced that it had developed an electric SUV for Europe that will be based on Toyota’s e-TNGA modular EV platform and will be previewed sometime in the next couple of months.

As for the US, Automotive News reported last week that Bob Carter, head of sales for Toyota North America stated that an EV is coming to the United States. We’re not sure which brand will be the first with an EV, but at least we know something electric will come from the Japanese automaker.

During a presentation for its European market, Koji Toyoshima Toyota’s deputy chief officer of its ZEV Factory said that the automaker intends to globally sell 5.5 million electrified vehicles every year by 2025. In that same time frame Toyoshima said that Toyota would introduce 60 new electrified vehicles. These numbers include hybrids, plug-in hybrids, EVs, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.

Toyoshima also noted that Toyota would have a mass-produced electric vehicle using a solid-state battery pack in the first half of the 2020s. A bold statement and potentially an EV game-changer since solid-state batteries charge quicker and offer more range in the same size pack as traditional lithium-ion batteries. It's also potentially a few years earlier than the company has previously stated when it said it would have the technology ready in 2025.

As for why Toyota has waited as long as it has to enter the EV market, Andrea Carlucci director of product and marketing for Toyota Europe said that its hybrid technology has allowed the company to comply with tough emissions standards in Europe without jumping to early into EVs. “However, hybrid success has given us the foundation we need, for other electrified powertrains – which will be introduced when the time, the market, and the infrastructure are right. And that time is getting closer.”

Tesla Sets Price of China-Made Model Y SUV Below Competitors - Bloomberg

Tesla Cuts Price on China-Built Model 3 by 9% to $42,900 - Bloomberg

How many high End Saloons and SUV BEV are Telsa selling in China 2020/2021?   Zero.  By the time The sell 1 BEV car, Telsa will be sell 5 x as many an now.

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The parallels are clear its just a bigger scale this time. Small scale investors jumping in, investing in companies to actually generate a profit being described as "quaint", new normal, all stuff from 1999/2000 now being repeated for a new generation. 

 

Talking of quaint.  I would say 1999/2000 dot-com bubble seems pretty quaint compared to this one.

 

 

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5 years ago you could have picked up either of these for around £7k

At the start of this year you could have picked either one up for the ''ridiculous bubble'' price of £15k.

Now look what they're asking and quite likely achieving...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/SUBARU-IMPREZA-WRX-STI-TYPE-R-VERSION-6-LTD/224293753925?hash=item3438f31445:g:xk8AAOSwh-df56XB

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Subaru-impreza-P1/164599342756?hash=item2652e2a6a4:g:PHUAAOSw1rpf42G~

 

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5 years ago you could have picked up either of these for around £7k

At the start of this year you could have picked either one up for the ''ridiculous bubble'' price of £15k.

Now look what they're asking and quite likely achieving...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/SUBARU-IMPREZA-WRX-STI-TYPE-R-VERSION-6-LTD/224293753925?hash=item3438f31445:g:xk8AAOSwh-df56XB

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Subaru-impreza-P1/164599342756?hash=item2652e2a6a4:g:PHUAAOSw1rpf42G~

 

Alright If you like slow 20th century tech I suppose. How rare are they on “How many left”? 

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Talking of quaint.  I would say 1999/2000 dot-com bubble seems pretty quaint compared to this one.

 

 

It is madness in my humble view. I was holding my nose and buying more amazon for years but sold in August. I'm not brave enough to hold any of the other "tech growth shares" at these prices.

Good luck to those that do. 

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5 years ago you could have picked up either of these for around £7k

At the start of this year you could have picked either one up for the ''ridiculous bubble'' price of £15k.

Now look what they're asking and quite likely achieving...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/SUBARU-IMPREZA-WRX-STI-TYPE-R-VERSION-6-LTD/224293753925?hash=item3438f31445:g:xk8AAOSwh-df56XB

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Subaru-impreza-P1/164599342756?hash=item2652e2a6a4:g:PHUAAOSw1rpf42G~

 

You can see what they sold for by ticking the Completed Listings toggle

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All the old subaru do not sell kite flying.

Completed listing at 10k to 15k unsold.

More Bs made up inflation. 

Realistic inflation is goods for new products  not a load of old tat that some bellend thinks is worth more than it is.

Head over to bullion by post asking 14k for 10k worth of silver.

 

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