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Every investable or speculative asset has gone mental in the last year?


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What are you trying to say?

It’s a joke. :D 

But perhaps if people knew the full lifetime cost of having a designer dog they’d think twice. 

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/aug/16/coronavirus-lockdown-surge-puppy-ownership-uk

But I’m sure your labradoodle’s instagram is very special :D 

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Noallegience on the DOSBODS site just posted a fantastic historical view:

Given some of the discussion on the reflation thread I felt moved to share the following.

DYOR and not advice, but listening to the uber-experienced may well save someone like me from making stoopid decisions. Maybe it might help settle some minds here, too.

Excerpts from a conversation with an older gentleman who's seen it all before.....twice:

 

"It’s a matter of having good psychological judgment. Everybody wants to be a contrarian, and perhaps they think they are a contrarian. But, in reality, it’s hard to be a contrarian.

Really, the only time to be a contrarian is when you have good reasons for believing it’s a genuine top or bottom in the market. It makes no sense to be a contrarian 80% of the time. That’s when you ought to go with the trend.

The first wild and crazy market that I can remember personally was in the late ‘60s, when any stock that had the suffix "-ex" or "-onics" at the end of its name was considered an automatic buy. It was a huge tech bubble, like the one today. That was just before a gigantic crash, of course. And the market went nowhere until 1982 when it finally bottomed.

Even the US government was paying 15% to 18% to borrow.  My big recommendations were electric utilities (they were yielding 12%–15% in current dividends) and the "Nifty Fifty," a group of stocks that were never supposed to go down—things like Xerox and Polaroid. The Nifty Fifty were the Amazon, Facebook, and Apple look-alikes of the era. But they were crushed about 90% in the bear market that bottomed in 1982.

You could save yourself a lot of money on financial newsletters if you just go down to the drug store every week and see what’s on the cover of magazines. You don’t even need to read the articles—journalists know nothing about the markets. Their opinions are, at best, contrary indicators. Once every year or two, there’s going to be a tip-off when they’re really bullish or bearish.

Of course, these things may now seem like ancient history. Talking about what happened in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s seems like my father talking about what happened in the 1930s and World War II when I was in college. It’s funny how time goes by. I once thought that the things he told me were ancient history and irrelevant, but they’re actually not. I was short-sighted, like most young people. 

More recent perspectives would include the Internet bubble of 2001, the current tech bubble, and, of course, the real estate bubble that crested in 2007, which was the opening round of the Greater Depression.

Right now, we’re in a stock bubble predictably focused on tech and a bond market hyperbubble. It could be that the current hysteria about the Wuhan coronavirus will be the pin that breaks the bubble. 

What’s likely to be much more serious are second-order effects, such as Draconian laws and regulations, money printing, and general hysteria. It’s not going to be good.

As a general rule, just watch for major tops and bottoms. You don’t have to "do" anything in the market almost ever. You should only act when the market really throws you a fat pitch. For instance, it’s insane the way the public is throwing money at trading services now because of FOMO. That’s another giant bell ringing at the top ….

Just try to identify major tops and bottoms, if nothing else. Keep it simple. Right now, we’re at a major top in both stocks and bonds. 

And we’re at a major bottom in commodities—although not in gold. It last bottomed in 2014 at just under $1,100. Before that, in 2001, it was at about $260 when, believe it or not, gold was cheaper in real terms than it was in 1971. But the good news is that there’s clearly a bull trend underway in gold that’s going to take it to a new peak.

In fact, the next bubble is going to be in gold and gold stocks...

One sign is the fact that there are a lot of houses in the United States that are going for not just $10 million, but for $50 million, and apartments in New York going for $100 million. That’s a bell ringing at the top of the market.

It’s also evident in the so-called art market, which no longer has anything to do with taste, technical skill, or interesting ideas. It’s now mainly a question of hype and promotion, where embarrassing crap that a kid could put together in a finger painting therapy class is going for millions of dollars. 

As I said earlier, the public wants to buy trading services—a very bad sign. They’ve seen the rich making huge amounts of money. Desperate people with no market or economic knowledge think that some trader is going to give them secrets that will make them millionaires.

Worse is the fact the public will spend big money for tout sheets that seem to promise outlandish returns—100 to 1, or perhaps 473,251%, or the like. The fact that that the public will do that is a sign that there’s a top in the market.

When the bottom of the market comes, not only will people not want to subscribe to newsletters telling them how to get wealthy—they won’t even want to know that the market exists.

They’ll care less about the US stock market than they do about the Uzbekistan stock market. Worse, they’ll hate it, because it will have cost them so much money.

Let me again underline that the only things that I can see that are actually cheap are commodities. I say that because the producers of hogs, cattle, cotton, orange juice, coffee, corn, soybeans, copper—none of them are making any money.

Only the best producers are just breaking even. To me, this is one sign that commodities, which have been at a bear market now for over eight years, are scraping the bottom. If somebody’s looking to make money with their money, the place to look now is commodities.

Nobody wants to hear about commodities.

Everybody wants high tech, software, and things of that nature.

Commodities are, however, the raw materials of civilization. They’re going to come back into fashion.

When anything hits the front of a magazine, it’s not because the editors are necessarily stupid, although most of them know nothing about the markets. They’re news people. It’s on the front of a magazine cover because people are emotional about it, because they’re interested in it—because they’re involved in it.

That’s why they want to buy a magazine or read about it.

The rush to inject an unprecedented amount of money into every corner of the economy is a last-ditch effort to keep the stock market casino going for as long as possible—no matter the consequences.

All this unprecedented money printing will give rocket fuel to the gold bull market, which is already underway.

Gold is the best bet for right now. It delivers protection AND profits."

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And we’re at a major bottom in commodities—although not in gold. It last bottomed in 2014 at just under $1,100. Before that, in 2001, it was at about $260 when, believe it or not, gold was cheaper in real terms than it was in 1971. But the good news is that there’s clearly a bull trend underway in gold that’s going to take it to a new peak.

Stopped reading here.. Just seems like a vested interest from a gold bug..

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Assuming thinks return to some form of normality next year, will some of these prices start to drop?

 

Leaving out gold and bitcoin which you could say are a form of money, surely some of these prices are just too crazy?

 

After all Rolex's, Whiskey, Guitar's, trading cards and dogs are not essential.  Surely these will be the first things to be cut, when people really start to feel the pinch?

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Assuming thinks return to some form of normality next year, will some of these prices start to drop?

 

Leaving out gold and bitcoin which you could say are a form of money, surely some of these prices are just too crazy?

 

After all Rolex's, Whiskey, Guitar's, trading cards and dogs are not essential.  Surely these will be the first things to be cut, when people really start to feel the pinch?

Why did they go up? 

Who is feeling the pinch? Not sure your average bar worker is in the market for a rolex or fine whiskey. 

Plenty of those wfh, no holiday this year, no lunches, no commute, no expensive restaurant meals etc.. Loads of cash wanting to find a home. 

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Why did they go up? 

Who is feeling the pinch? Not sure your average bar worker is in the market for a rolex or fine whiskey. 

Plenty of those wfh, no holiday this year, no lunches, no commute, no expensive restaurant meals etc.. Loads of cash wanting to find a home. 

"I've always wanted that watch and suddenly I've got a spare X grand..."

Yep

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They always say the market collapses after the last Bear turns Bull. Is this forum the last Bear?

This will end in disaster one way or the other.

Everything goes up and continues to go up causing vast wealth disparities, huge unemployment and civil unrest with anyone bragging about the gains from Bitcoin ripped apart by the jealous mob.

It all pops, the whole lot. Confidence that is now at all time highs, is shown to be the Emperor’s new clothes, and the single biggest asset crash in history destroys the wealth of those who have speculated.

I am completely on the fence as to what will happen. I have been trying to buy a house, but various events stopped me. Now, I have a different perspective on things than most. I have a strong Christian faith and pray before any big decision. Each time I have done this, things have come up that have stopped me buying a house. The same has happened with Bitcoin and some other speculative transactions I was going to make on the stock market. Now, it may be that these moves would have resulted n me being much more wealthy, but I am at peace with missing out on that if I am living a life that is in line with God’s will. I have come to realise that craving wealth, even craving security, is not righteous behaviour.

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Why did they go up? 

Who is feeling the pinch? Not sure your average bar worker is in the market for a rolex or fine whiskey. 

Plenty of those wfh, no holiday this year, no lunches, no commute, no expensive restaurant meals etc.. Loads of cash wanting to find a home. 

My personal take is a lot of the work from home mob and people on furlough will actually lose their jobs next year.  Even if only 10% of these people lose their jobs, surely the other 90% will reduce their expenditure on unnecessary items because they are worried?

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They always say the market collapses after the last Bear turns Bull. Is this forum the last Bear?

This will end in disaster one way or the other.

Everything goes up and continues to go up causing vast wealth disparities, huge unemployment and civil unrest with anyone bragging about the gains from Bitcoin ripped apart by the jealous mob.

It all pops, the whole lot. Confidence that is now at all time highs, is shown to be the Emperor’s new clothes, and the single biggest asset crash in history destroys the wealth of those who have speculated.

I am completely on the fence as to what will happen. I have been trying to buy a house, but various events stopped me. Now, I have a different perspective on things than most. I have a strong Christian faith and pray before any big decision. Each time I have done this, things have come up that have stopped me buying a house. The same has happened with Bitcoin and some other speculative transactions I was going to make on the stock market. Now, it may be that these moves would have resulted n me being much more wealthy, but I am at peace with missing out on that if I am living a life that is in line with God’s will. I have come to realise that craving wealth, even craving security, is not righteous behaviour.

You lost me at "God", Religion was created to control the masses in a time there was no technology. If you let it control you in the 2st century, you are just a week willed person looking for excuses for a shitty life. And i live with a Catholic wife, no poor excuses in out house. 

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I have made an investment that over one day today will make 12% overnight. Guaranteed! i have about 10 years of 1st class stamps. An excellent investment that will always be needed even if people will be getting Harry potter and James bond stamps in 2030. The problem is i dont know how long birthday and Christmas cards will be a thing. As that is my sole use for stamps. Having cash is also rubbish for UC purposes assets that can be liquidated easily are definitely worth having.

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I have to admit, TESLA stock has completely puzzled me. I have been trading for 20 odd years and in all that time I have never seen a stock pumped like this. Even proper tech companies making huge profits like AAPL and GOOG have made gains but that has taken years. We are talking about a car company with very low profit margins and which struggles to make a profit and has seen its stock up 700% in a matter of months! I would really like to know how this was accomplished, by whom and why.

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I have to admit, TESLA stock has completely puzzled me. I have been trading for 20 odd years and in all that time I have never seen a stock pumped like this. Even proper tech companies making huge profits like AAPL and GOOG have made gains but that has taken years. We are talking about a car company with very low profit margins and which struggles to make a profit and has seen its stock up 700% in a matter of months! I would really like to know how this was accomplished, by whom and why.

Simple. Tesla are not a car company. They are a Technology, software and Energy company with a huge 1st mover advantage. 

Name me 1 other car company that sells fuel directly to its customers, and keeps the all the profits?

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Simple. Tesla are not a car company. They are a Technology, software and Energy company with a huge 1st mover advantage. 

Name me 1 other car company that sells fuel directly to its customers, and keeps the all the profits?

You've totally missed the point dude.

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You lost me at "God", Religion was created to control the masses in a time there was no technology. If you let it control you in the 2st century, you are just a week willed person looking for excuses for a shitty life. And i live with a Catholic wife, no poor excuses in out house. 

It actually takes a strong will to have faith when the world is full of people like you. 

Edited by HovelinHove
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They always say the market collapses after the last Bear turns Bull. Is this forum the last Bear?

This will end in disaster one way or the other.

Everything goes up and continues to go up causing vast wealth disparities, huge unemployment and civil unrest with anyone bragging about the gains from Bitcoin ripped apart by the jealous mob.

It all pops, the whole lot. Confidence that is now at all time highs, is shown to be the Emperor’s new clothes, and the single biggest asset crash in history destroys the wealth of those who have speculated.

I am completely on the fence as to what will happen. I have been trying to buy a house, but various events stopped me. Now, I have a different perspective on things than most. I have a strong Christian faith and pray before any big decision. Each time I have done this, things have come up that have stopped me buying a house. The same has happened with Bitcoin and some other speculative transactions I was going to make on the stock market. Now, it may be that these moves would have resulted n me being much more wealthy, but I am at peace with missing out on that if I am living a life that is in line with God’s will. I have come to realise that craving wealth, even craving security, is not righteous behaviour.

Agree 100% 

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