Every investable or speculative asset has gone mental in the last year?

[markyh]

 

I think pretty much all car manufacturers sell all the cars they make don't they?

Why would any company in its right mind not adopt the profit maximising condition? If that is doing the minimum to avoid fines from the EU then fair enough. Do you honestly think that come 2030 they'll still only be able to produce tiny volumes of BEV? OR.... do you think they'll be able to ramp production OR..... perhaps get the EU to move the goalposts? imagine that. Teslas share valuation contingent on the EU not being swayed by the automakers. 

You miss the point. Legacy ice have to profit maximise with self imposed hard sales limts of BEV, otherwise they go bust because to the costs of ICE setups losing billions. 

Also, Tesla are the only Car making now making their own batteries, in their own factories. Legacy ICE all have their hands tied behind their backs, reliant on the battery producers Tesla also use.  That creates a highest bidder scenario that legacy ICE cant afford. 

Tesla has no limits, the only limit to sales of BEV is lower price points and expanding production capacity. All that is in place. And 75% in effect by 2023, 100% in effect by 2025.  

[captainb]

 

You miss the point. Legacy ice have to profit maximise with self imposed hard sales limts of BEV, otherwise they go bust because to the costs of ICE setups losing billions. 

Also, Tesla are the only Car making now making their own batteries, in their own factories. Legacy ICE all have their hands tied behind their backs, reliant on the battery producers Tesla also use.  That creates a highest bidder scenario that legacy ICE cant afford. 

Tesla has no limits, the only limit to sales of BEV is lower price points and expanding production capacity. All that is in place. And 75% in effect by 2023, 100% in effect by 2025.  

Why would they go bust even if they wrote down their ICE production capacity to nill? Once they had BEV production capacity. 

Its a non cash accounting adjustment aside from the cost of say shutting the factories which would be done in stages to BEV conversion. 

Won't look pretty on the p&l that year, depending how long the depreciation has come already, but rather meh and certainly not a cash call for investors let alone going bust. 

Edited January 4, 2021 by captainb

[markyh]

 

The law will state you have to buy it from Tesla? Or just have a BEV car and you can invent that yourself? 

Yes. Tesla software will ne so advanced by then, no other system will be good enough. So state / Tesla / Legacy (remaining) deals will be done and agreed. 

But ..........................software costs nothing to produce, 100%  profit on every car on the road. This software was started in 2014 with Autopilot, and they have more data than anyone, every car sold collects more data for self driving, activated or not.

The lead is so big it's not even funny and growing expanentially. 

[markyh]

 

Why would they go bust even if they wrote down their ICE production capacity to nill? Once they had BEV production capacity. 

Its a non cash accounting adjustment aside from the cost of say shutting the factories which would be done in stages to BEV conversion. 

Won't look pretty on the p&l that year, depending how long the depreciation has come already, but rather meh and certainly not a cash call for investors let alone going bust. 

That's lots of German workers you have to pay for "life" if you have no use for them or not. I believe that' s their law? I guess the only way out is to make BEV a whole seperate legal company and just leave the legacy ICE to go bust. 

Going to go well with share price!!!

[Peter Hun]

 

And yet Tesla sell every one of the 500k cars that can physically make. We are so upset. Let’s review at the end of 2022 when Berlin has been at full production for a year. Keep you short term statistics, in fact invest on them in legacy ice, you’re sure to make a  killing. 
 

I told you , every legacy ice maker in Europe will only sell p/a enough BEV to have zero fleet emissions fines from the EU.  You just watch. 2021 will prove this with VW. 

pft.. M-3 is 3% of EU market at present. The M-Y may improve it, but there will be 100 more other BEV's to contend with and most will be much cheaper. Your 25k car will be here next year, from several manufacturers, not Tesla though.

The Tesla 500k figure is interesting, because its DELIVERIES. 180k (?) sales in US and 88K in EU. 160k in China. Where is the rest??? California BEV sales fell in H1. 

I won't invest in legacy ICE, because the car industry is a shit area to invest in, unless you are in the cult.

[captainb]

 

That's lots of German workers you have to pay for "life" if you have no use for them or not. I believe that' s their law? I guess the only way out is to make BEV a whole seperate legal company and just leave the legacy ICE to go bust. 

Going to go well with share price!!!

That's simply not the case. I assume you are referring to the employment laws over there, and yes each factory is a seperate legal entity.

There is an assumption that manufacting BEV will require some labour just as the current production line does. Worst case redundancy is possible and not that expensive in the grand scheme of things... Even in the former soviet union. 

As for share price, seemingly the best thing for it, would be to incur a massive loss and rebrand to "blockchain battery EV supply tech blast off Inc". Who needs actual profits or revenues or even cashflow when you can have hype. 

[Peter Hun]

 

That's lots of German workers you have to pay for "life" if you have no use for them or not. I believe that' s their law? I guess the only way out is to make BEV a whole seperate legal company and just leave the legacy ICE to go bust. 

Going to go well with share price!!!

In 13 weeks they made the switch

Nov 10, 2020 - 02:53 pm

VW electric cars now rolling off two lines in Zwickau

Volkswagen has now also converted the second production line at the Zwickau plant to the construction of MEB electric cars. The German carmaker converted hall 6 for this purpose within 13 weeks. Series production of the ID.4, which already began in August, will now take place in both Hall 5 and Hall 6.

The German Automobilwoche revealed this opening of the second production line. Zwickau is Volkswagen’s first plant entirely dedicated to the construction of electric cars. In the summer of 2019, Volkswagen converted the first of two assembly lines for the production of the all-electric ID. models in Hall 5 in Zwickau. At the beginning of November 2019, the automotive group started series production of the ID.3 on this line, and since August of this year, the ID.3 has shared the line with the ID.4.

By converting the production line in Hall 6, which was previously used for the Golf Variant, Volkswagen is expanding its production capacity. 13 weeks after the last combustion engine left the assembly line there, the hall is now ready for series production of the ID.4. According to the Automobilwoche, the electric SUV is currently being built on both production lines. A plant spokesman said that they would increase the number of units successively by the end of the year. The ID.4 celebrated its world premiere in September. Initially, only the two optional extras, the ID.4 1ST and the ID.4 1ST Max, will be produced in Zwickau. They are to be delivered this year.

Next year, the ID. models will then be getting more company from electric cars in Zwickau: the Group will make the Audi Q4 e-tron, the Q4 Sportback e-tron and the Cupra el-Born in Zwickau for other group brands. Only Škoda is planning a unique route for its MEB electric Enyaq: the e-SUV is to be built at Škoda’s main plant in Mladá Boleslav from the end of 2020 – on a par with MQB models. According to Automobilwoche, Volkswagen plans to start production of another SUV of the VW brand in Zwickau before late 2021. This is likely to be a spin-off of the ID.4.

https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/10/vw-electric-cars-now-rolling-off-two-lines-in-zwickau/

[Si1]

 

In 13 weeks they made the switch

Nov 10, 2020 - 02:53 pm

VW electric cars now rolling off two lines in Zwickau

Volkswagen has now also converted the second production line at the Zwickau plant to the construction of MEB electric cars. The German carmaker converted hall 6 for this purpose within 13 weeks. Series production of the ID.4, which already began in August, will now take place in both Hall 5 and Hall 6.

The German Automobilwoche revealed this opening of the second production line. Zwickau is Volkswagen’s first plant entirely dedicated to the construction of electric cars. In the summer of 2019, Volkswagen converted the first of two assembly lines for the production of the all-electric ID. models in Hall 5 in Zwickau. At the beginning of November 2019, the automotive group started series production of the ID.3 on this line, and since August of this year, the ID.3 has shared the line with the ID.4.

By converting the production line in Hall 6, which was previously used for the Golf Variant, Volkswagen is expanding its production capacity. 13 weeks after the last combustion engine left the assembly line there, the hall is now ready for series production of the ID.4. According to the Automobilwoche, the electric SUV is currently being built on both production lines. A plant spokesman said that they would increase the number of units successively by the end of the year. The ID.4 celebrated its world premiere in September. Initially, only the two optional extras, the ID.4 1ST and the ID.4 1ST Max, will be produced in Zwickau. They are to be delivered this year.

Next year, the ID. models will then be getting more company from electric cars in Zwickau: the Group will make the Audi Q4 e-tron, the Q4 Sportback e-tron and the Cupra el-Born in Zwickau for other group brands. Only Škoda is planning a unique route for its MEB electric Enyaq: the e-SUV is to be built at Škoda’s main plant in Mladá Boleslav from the end of 2020 – on a par with MQB models. According to Automobilwoche, Volkswagen plans to start production of another SUV of the VW brand in Zwickau before late 2021. This is likely to be a spin-off of the ID.4.

https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/10/vw-electric-cars-now-rolling-off-two-lines-in-zwickau/

I believe VW are backers of quantumscape batteries, the only battery technology in the ball park with Tesla's. And a silicon valley startup too.

[Peter Hun]

 

I believe VW are backers of quantumscape batteries, the only battery technology in the ball park with Tesla's. And a silicon valley startup too.

There is Toyota as well. Probably several dozen potential developments in battery technology around the world, its the number one research subject.

[Peter Hun]

 

There is Toyota as well. Probably several dozen potential developments in battery technology around the world, its the number one research subject.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most-read-in-2020/Toyota-s-game-changing-solid-state-battery-en-route-for-2021-debut

[Peter Hun]

Toyota plans to be the first company to sell an electric vehicle equipped with a solid-state battery in the early 2020s. The world's largest automaker will unveil a prototype next year.

 

Toyota stands at the top of the global heap with over 1,000 patents involving solid-state batteries. Nissan Motor plans to develop its own solid-state battery which will power a non-simulation vehicle by 2028

[stuckmojo]

I decided to buy wine, physical records and books and goods I will enjoy. 

The rest will be taxed to death/expropriated/become valueless. 

[markyh]

 

In 13 weeks they made the switch

Nov 10, 2020 - 02:53 pm

VW electric cars now rolling off two lines in Zwickau

Volkswagen has now also converted the second production line at the Zwickau plant to the construction of MEB electric cars. The German carmaker converted hall 6 for this purpose within 13 weeks. Series production of the ID.4, which already began in August, will now take place in both Hall 5 and Hall 6.

The German Automobilwoche revealed this opening of the second production line. Zwickau is Volkswagen’s first plant entirely dedicated to the construction of electric cars. In the summer of 2019, Volkswagen converted the first of two assembly lines for the production of the all-electric ID. models in Hall 5 in Zwickau. At the beginning of November 2019, the automotive group started series production of the ID.3 on this line, and since August of this year, the ID.3 has shared the line with the ID.4.

By converting the production line in Hall 6, which was previously used for the Golf Variant, Volkswagen is expanding its production capacity. 13 weeks after the last combustion engine left the assembly line there, the hall is now ready for series production of the ID.4. According to the Automobilwoche, the electric SUV is currently being built on both production lines. A plant spokesman said that they would increase the number of units successively by the end of the year. The ID.4 celebrated its world premiere in September. Initially, only the two optional extras, the ID.4 1ST and the ID.4 1ST Max, will be produced in Zwickau. They are to be delivered this year.

Next year, the ID. models will then be getting more company from electric cars in Zwickau: the Group will make the Audi Q4 e-tron, the Q4 Sportback e-tron and the Cupra el-Born in Zwickau for other group brands. Only Škoda is planning a unique route for its MEB electric Enyaq: the e-SUV is to be built at Škoda’s main plant in Mladá Boleslav from the end of 2020 – on a par with MQB models. According to Automobilwoche, Volkswagen plans to start production of another SUV of the VW brand in Zwickau before late 2021. This is likely to be a spin-off of the ID.4.

https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/10/vw-electric-cars-now-rolling-off-two-lines-in-zwickau/

This is great. VW are going to make an excellent no.2 car marker to Tesla in every metric by 2030, they will probably have at least 1/3rd of the 60% remain world volume the big 4 will share. and several exciting new brands too, Like a new high end German brand call Mercedes Benz, and the Chevrolet Brand in the USA, Holden in Australia. 

Exciting times. 

[Peter Hun]

Tesla have nothing that can match solid state batteries. IF Toyota pull it off, Tesla are toast.

I suppose they could buy batteries from Toyota.

[markyh]

 

Toyota plans to be the first company to sell an electric vehicle equipped with a solid-state battery in the early 2020s. The world's largest automaker will unveil a prototype next year.

 

Toyota stands at the top of the global heap with over 1,000 patents involving solid-state batteries. Nissan Motor plans to develop its own solid-state battery which will power a non-simulation vehicle by 2028

Vapourware, to expensive to scale. They are clutching at straws trying to stop their investors jumping ship. Toyota said back at the turn of the century there would be millions of HFC EV all around the world by now. 

Virtually none, you can count them in 100's, yet they wasted $ billions on tech that cant scale because the fuel is a energy type not source, that has a negative ROI to create in energy losses. 

You will have "0" production Solid State battery cars in 2025.  doubt you will have that tech by 2050, more likely to have fusion drives before SSB.  

[Peter Hun]

3% European market share in December.

[markyh]

 

Tesla have nothing that can match solid state batteries. IF Toyota pull it off, Tesla are toast.

I suppose they could buy batteries from Toyota.

So IF you believe this, you need to buy Toyota shares now. I was convinced of Tesla's dominance in 2016, so bought then.  and was correct. 

IF you wait to see if it's true, you wont ever buy and obvuiosly all Tesla sector value will transfer from Tesla to Toyota. 

Of course. Tesla could just buy Toyota to hedge it's bets.  

[markyh]

 

3% European market share in December.

Nice, remind me of VW and Toyota's BEV market share in USA and China?  Would it be, 0.0001% ? 

[markyh]

 

3% European market share in December.

Anyway. it's a UK forum, we are not in the EU, lets look at what happens when we align ourselves with our glorious BEV making USA cousins.  And VW ID3 was for sale, sadly didn't make the chart. Looked really really hard for something Toyota, but no couldn't see anything. This is what happens when you are forward thinking enough to have "The" only product to replace a BMW 3 series/ Merc C Class, Audi A4, Volvo, Lexus with" on a 0% BIK policy that was announced years ago. So no excuses it was "sprung on us". 

[Peter Hun]

 

Anyway. it's a UK forum, we are not in the EU, lets look at what happens when we align ourselves with our glorious BEV making USA cousins.  And VW ID3 was for sale, sadly didn't make the chart. Looked really really hard for something Toyota, but no couldn't see anything. This is what happens when you are forward thinking enough to have "The" only product to replace a BMW 3 series/ Merc C Class, Audi A4, Volvo, Lexus with" on a 0% BIK policy that was announced years ago. So no excuses it was "sprung on us". 

We are in Europe, the biggest BEV market. And, as I said 3% in December 2020, not to date.

But, as you chart shows, Tesla's market share has collapsed, was 33% now 3%

 

[Si1]

 

We are in Europe, the biggest BEV market. And, as I said 3% in December 2020, not to date.

But, as you chart shows, Tesla's market share has collapsed, was 33% now 3%

 

Are they selling the same absolute number of cars but the market's just got much bigger?

Edited January 4, 2021 by Si1

[Peter Hun]

 

Are they selling the same absolute number of cars but the market's just got much bigger?

Basically yes. They are not partaking in the market growth.

[markyh]

 

We are in Europe, the biggest BEV market. And, as I said 3% in December 2020, not to date.

But, as you chart shows, Tesla's market share has collapsed, was 33% now 3%

 

Ahhh the percentages game, the arguement of short selling, cotton pickin, Tesla bear Experts on CNBC that always get it wrong but change the narrative to suit them. Prey tell, what was the total "Europe" figures when Tesla were 33% of the market, much much smaller maybe? But lets no mention that, or the fact  from that chart (doesn't specify dates like mine, assume 2020) that in that period, oh look, the Tesla model 3 outsold the cheaper Kona by 2:1 , the E-Golf buy 2:1 , the cheaper id3 by 2:1 , BMW i3 by 3:1 , nissan Leaf by 2:1.  Zoe did well have to admit, but then they practically have to give it away, no one pays RRP. EVERYONE pays RRP with Tesla, Go and ask to a discount, you wont get one.

And no we left Europe. there will ne no UK figures in that list in 2021. There was a vote in 2016, you may have missed it. We are just like Norway, Switzerland etc, which also wont be in the above figures, we have our own figures and rules now, no connection to Bosch or cheese eating surrender Monkeys. 

And the UK says.............. Tesla is best, voting with their pockets. Wot wot. 

[Si1]

 

Basically yes. They are not partaking in the market growth.

I'd say that's fair enough. No way even Elon Musk can keep pace with major mass market manufacturers all coming online for electric car production and distribution at the same time. Interestingly this is satisfying Tesla's mission statement, to promote electric car uptake in general, not just of Tesla cars.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Si1

[markyh]

 

I'd say that's fair enough. No way even Elon Musk can keep pace with major mass market manufacturers all coming online for electric car production and distribution at the same time. Interestingly this is satisfying Tesla's mission statement, to promote electric car uptake in general, not just of Tesla cars.

Shhhh, Damn it. You may ruin my sly plan for @Peter Hun to announce he bought an VW ID3 rather than an Tesla to spite me.