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Will we go into Tier 5 30/12/2020


Will we go into Tier 5 30/12/2020  

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  1. 1. Will we go into Tier 5 30/12/2020



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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/29/tier-5-restrictions-could-include-might-affect/

What Tier 5 restrictions could include, and who it might affect

Boris Johnson's tier system will face its next review on Dec 30, and there are warnings that the existing four tiers may not be enough.

Decisions on tiers are made by ministers based on public health recommendations informed by case detection rate,  how quickly case rates are rising or falling, positivity in the general population, pressure on the NHS and their capacity, and local context and exceptional circumstances such as a local but contained outbreak.

If these indicators are not improving, an area may be moved up a tier and if the trajectory improves, the area may move to a lower tier.

"Sizeable chunks" of the Midlands and the North are expected to be put into Tier 4 at the Dec 30 review, but there are growing calls for enough tougher measures. Matt Hancock will announce any changes to the tier system in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

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There is no may about pubs and non essential shops closing in tier 5 - they already are closed in tier 4 and in the case of wet pubs in tier 3.

The difference between tier 4 and 5 seems to be about closing secondary schools and Matt Hancock being even firmer that you must stay at home unless on essential business (food/medical shopping, work you cannot do at home. exercising outdoors and caring for a vulnerable person). 

Its essentially back to the lockdown in the spring - except primary schools can we assume stay open. Do they close in tier 6 - how many more tiers can we cope with?

Edited by MARTINX9
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It's all very much "pile on more and more, something must work eventually." No thought going in to it beyond that, and no consideration given to the damage in public trust and hence compliance.

Pubs are already closed in Tier 3 (other than doing takeaways).

Edited by Riedquat
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I don't know why we're p*ssing about with tiers at this stage and don't/didn't already just go into full lockdown like we did in the Spring while they roll out the vaccine.

People are fed up of lockdowns and compliance is clearly waning but I think the great British public would buy the pitch: "one/two month hard lockdown while we roll the vaccine out, one last time, one last push then start getting back to normal slowly". Save the announcement for Oxford vaccine approval date for full effect, hammer home the sense or at least prospect of finality of the (impending) lockdown.  

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... additionally tier 4 isn't a million miles away from lockdown anyways, who here can honestly say there's stuff they're doing or are free to do now that they weren't doing in March/April. All we're doing currently is obfuscating things, which at worse is giving people cart blanche to flout under guise of ignorance.

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I don't know why we're p*ssing about with tiers at this stage and don't/didn't already just go into full lockdown like we did in the Spring while they roll out the vaccine.

People are fed up of lockdowns and compliance is clearly waning but I think the great British public would buy the pitch: "one/two month hard lockdown while we roll the vaccine out, one last time, one last push then start getting back to normal slowly". Save the announcement for Oxford vaccine approval date for full effect, hammer home the sense or at least prospect of finality of the (impending) lockdown.  

I think that's rational, and I think enough people would buy that. One last push lasting til the end of Feb, then slowly begin opening things up on a one way path to eventual complete normality, hopefully by summer's end give or take a month or so. 

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I don't know why we're p*ssing about with tiers at this stage and don't/didn't already just go into full lockdown like we did in the Spring while they roll out the vaccine.

People are fed up of lockdowns and compliance is clearly waning but I think the great British public would buy the pitch: "one/two month hard lockdown while we roll the vaccine out, one last time, one last push then start getting back to normal slowly". Save the announcement for Oxford vaccine approval date for full effect, hammer home the sense or at least prospect of finality of the (impending) lockdown.  

Agreed. The major hurdle imo is the parliamentary Tory party and their leveraged 'business interests'. They'd rather tens of thousands more die and the NHS end up in tatters than see their precious leveraged property companies fold and their wives abandon them for the vapid superficial narcissists they really are.

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There is no may about pubs and non essential shops closing in tier 5 - they already are closed in tier 4 and in the case of wet pubs in tier 3.

The difference between tier 4 and 5 seems to be about closing secondary schools and Matt Hancock being even firmer that you must stay at home unless on essential business (food/medical shopping, work you cannot do at home. exercising outdoors and caring for a vulnerable person). 

Its essentially back to the lockdown in the spring - except primary schools can we assume stay open. Do they close in tier 6 - how many more tiers can we cope with?

What about universities........surely students travelling all over the country into shared accommodation to work on-line in most courses, sometimes two hours per week interactive, is contra to trying to steam the spread of the virus around the country and from overseas students......if other schools have to stop at home to study remotely.....sense says university students should also........ refunding rents and course fees pro rata.;)

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People are fed up of lockdowns and compliance is clearly waning but I think the great British public would buy the pitch: "one/two month hard lockdown while we roll the vaccine out, one last time, one last push then start getting back to normal slowly". Save the announcement for Oxford vaccine approval date for full effect, hammer home the sense or at least prospect of finality of the (impending) lockdown.  

Aaaaannd like clockwork, new tiers announcement tonight, breaking news Oxford/AZ approved ... you'd think I was insider trading wouldn't you? ;) 

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We don't need anymore lockdowns.  On the macro level less people will have died in the UK in 2020 than in 2019.

 

I think you are being fooled by the way the news is being reported, with continually repeating a scorecard of who died without context.  

 

They should balance it with a score of who died of cancer or heart disease.

Edited by reddog
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We don't need anymore lockdowns.  On the macro level less people will have died in the UK in 2020 than in 2019.

 

I think you are being fooled by the way the news is being reported, with continually repeating a scorecard of who died without context.  

 

They should balance it with a score of who died of cancer or heart disease.

I’m with you. Besides this new variant let rip in November in Kent, the last lockdown did absolutely nothing to stop it. Why knacker the economy and mental health even more when you know the lockdown won’t work?

Goodwill and compliance for lockdown has expired, my neighbours have had different guests everyday during Christmas for example.

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I’m with you. Besides this new variant let rip in November in Kent, the last lockdown did absolutely nothing to stop it. Why knacker the economy and mental health even more when you know the lockdown won’t work?

Goodwill and compliance for lockdown has expired, my neighbours have had different guests everyday during Christmas for example.

Maybe we should just nuke the South of England for the well-being of the rest of the UK then. Seriously.

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We don't need anymore lockdowns.  On the macro level less people will have died in the UK in 2020 than in 2019.

 

I think you are being fooled by the way the news is being reported, with continually repeating a scorecard of who died without context.  

 

They should balance it with a score of who died of cancer or heart disease.

It's not about how many people have died thus far its about how many people will die, will get sick and will need hospitalising.

 

The hospitals are close to capacity and the rates of infection are rising quicker than previously. The Nightingales may be available but there are no staff to run them.

 

Hard lockdown coming.

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The hospitals are close to capacity and the rates of infection are rising quicker than previously. The Nightingales may be available but there are no staff to run them.

 

 

Hospital's are always busy at this time of year due to flu.  Incidentally, not many people are dying of flu this year, they seem to have been replaced by people dying of Covid.  Which highlights the fact that most people dying of Covid were going to die soon anyway, it was just Covid that pushed them over the edge.

 

RE: Nightingale hospitals.  Why should I trust a government / scientific advisors that we need a Tier 5 lockdown, when the same government built these hospitals without considering they needed to be staffed.

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Hospital's are always busy at this time of year due to flu.  Incidentally, not many people are dying of flu this year, they seem to have been replaced by people dying of Covid.  Which highlights the fact that most people dying of Covid were going to die soon anyway, it was just Covid that pushed them over the edge.

 

RE: Nightingale hospitals.  Why should I trust a government / scientific advisors that we need a Tier 5 lockdown, when the same government built these hospitals without considering they needed to be staffed.

Publicity stunt?.........lots of expensive and unnecessary things are done to make it look good......at the same time failing to do the behind the scean practical productive stuff that makes a difference.;)

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Hospital's are always busy at this time of year due to flu.  Incidentally, not many people are dying of flu this year, they seem to have been replaced by people dying of Covid.  Which highlights the fact that most people dying of Covid were going to die soon anyway, it was just Covid that pushed them over the edge.

 

RE: Nightingale hospitals.  Why should I trust a government / scientific advisors that we need a Tier 5 lockdown, when the same government built these hospitals without considering they needed to be staffed.

It's irrelevant if you trust them or not. I have never trusted a Tory. They are in charge though.

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The handling of this right from the start has been abysmal from this Government.

As I posted in another thread, the building of the Nightingale hospitals without having the capacity to staff them under their own worst-case scenario is nothing short of a disgrace. Some of the money paid for millions upon millions to sit on their arses could easily have been spent on training 20,000 of those people as first response medical staff to deal with this one disease.

As to lockdowns, the subject of this thread, they simply haven't worked. We know they haven't worked because we are now reporting over 50k new infections every day and the hospitals are over capacity. You have to be some kind of idiot to think that tougher rules will make a difference. People will just ignore them like they have been doing, getting pissed up with their mates at home rather than going to a pub with suitable precautions in place.

House prices up over 7% this year, stock markets doing well. The pandemic has worked out very nicely for the rich and powerful.

Edited by GeneCernan
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RE: my comment about Nightingale hospitals not being used.

 

If we actually had a genuine national emergency we could have easily over the last 9 months  got together enough people to staff them through the Army/Navy/Airforce and volunteers of retired medical staff.

 

The fact that we have not done this highlights further that we are not in an emergency situation, it is more or less political and media hype.

 

 

Edited by reddog
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RE: my comment about Nightingale hospitals not being used.

 

If we actually had a genuine national emergency we could have easily over the last 9 months  got together enough people to staff them through the Army/Navy/Airforce and volunteers of retired medical staff.

 

The fact that we have not done this highlights further that we are not in an emergency situation, it is more or less political and media hype.

 

Agree, where there is a will there is a way....... hundreds of people available to help voluntery if need be, even if only cleaning, or after some training, if it is help that is required.....war against the virus team effort.......the NHS do not own it.;)

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nhs.jpg

Don't you think the Mirror and politicians are prone to hyperbole? John Lister is the only person quoted above who might be a serious expert, but he was a founder of the "Save Our NHS" campaign, so it isn't surprising if he makes exaggerated claims about it either. The fact that he said we had six weeks to save it in December 2011 and six months to save it in September 2012 suggests that his comments might be as reliable as Mirror headlines.

Warnings from actual medical experts shouldn't be tainted by these claims.

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We don't need anymore lockdowns.  On the macro level less people will have died in the UK in 2020 than in 2019.

I think you are being fooled by the way the news is being reported, with continually repeating a scorecard of who died without context. 

They should balance it with a score of who died of cancer or heart disease.

 

You're the only one doing the fooling, jackass.

The Institute of Actuaries estimate that there have been 71,200 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. 👇

Obviously this number is provisional and almost certain to be revised upwards once the full data-set has been collated.

 

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/documents/england-wales-mortality-monitor-covid-19-update-week-51-2020

There have been around 71,200 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 18 December 2020 than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019. This estimate uses data from National Records Scotland (NRS) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) as well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

During week 51 of 2020, there were 7% more deaths registered in England & Wales than would have been expected if Standardised Mortality Rates had been the same as in the corresponding weeks of 2019. The corresponding figure for week 50 was +8%.

The cumulative mortality improvement in England & Wales for 2020 is –12.5% as at 18 December 2020, compared to +0.1% as at 20 March 2020, before the coronavirus pandemic had a material impact

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