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SDLT will probably have the biggest (or at least most obvious) impact on 2021. People will now start to reduce offers as they realise they need to pay stamp duty, and come March the chains will start collapsing when people in the buying process realise they will miss the deadline. This should contribute towards lower prices. I don’t think there will be a straightforward extension but possibly a taper of some kind I.e. extension for people with approved mortgage. I can also see a long term change to SDLT announced in the budget but that could go either way to increase or reduce it. Hopefully not increase... 

As the pandemic starts to pass due to the vaccine (fingers crossed) I can see people thinking they can get a bargain central London flat. People still want to live here as the fun stuff is still here (albeit temporarily closed), the offices will reopen. This will push prices back up for these properties. People who moved to the country will realise they hate it and head back to the city. 

Desirable houses will probably also increase in price as there have been none on the market recently and the demand will still continue through the year for wealthy people that are less financially affected by the pandemic and can still afford them.

Once furlough ends I expect a large amount of jobs will return as demand returns - albeit some areas will be more affected than others and places that closed down will take time to be replaced by new businesses. This won’t have too much impact either way on prices as the people most affected are largely renters who cannot afford yet to buy.

Having said that, renters may be increasingly unable to pay pushing BTL properties onto the market. 

I imagine Hong Kong residents coming to London will push up London house prices - probably not noticeably on a macro level but certain types of properties might be affected more depending on the buying preferences. If they are largely professionals/wealthy, the good quality houses will probably continue to go further ahead of mediocre properties. This is similar to what has happened this year, with average increases masking reduction in flats and massive increases in desirable houses. I have seen certain areas go up 20-30% (SSTC at least - they may be imaginary when chains start to collapse).

All in all there are so many things that could happen (or might not) that it is so hard to make a half sensible guess. The government is of course totally unpredictable as well which doesn’t help - government intervention is where the most impact will come from.

However, I don’t think prices will come down next year (as they go down more slowly than they increase in an environment where people are not forced sellers, as I expect to be the case next year, with low interest rates). They will probably increase a bit but not as much as this year.

 

SDLT won't cause a crash, putting it back on will take some of the forth out of the market but people will adjust - its just not that much in the grand scheme of things. 

Even for the max impact person buying a house for £500k dead its £15k to find. Some will. Some will find £10k and not put in a new kitchen this year. £5k hit for seller. 

Some will only find £5k and the person above will take a £10k hit. Etc. Its not crash ville. 

 

When you are in a chain and things happen people tend to find solutions. Not just habitually collapse the chain. The thing happening can be worse than SDLT being reapplied and solutions sought. To so such an extent, it's not unheard of for top seller in the chain to buy the first rung just to make it happen. 

 

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SDLT won't cause a crash, putting it back on will take some of the forth out of the market but people will adjust - its just not that much in the grand scheme of things. 

Even for the max impact person buying a house for £500k dead its £15k to find. Some will. Some will find £10k and not put in a new kitchen this year. £5k hit for seller. 

Some will only find £5k and the person above will take a £10k hit. Etc. Its not crash ville. 

 

When you are in a chain and things happen people tend to find solutions. Not just habitually collapse the chain. The thing happening can be worse than SDLT being reapplied and solutions sought. To so such an extent, it's not unheard of for top seller in the chain to buy the first rung just to make it happen. 

 

Exactly.  £15K is nack all in the grand scheme of things. Physiologically it meant that people brought there plans forward, so there may be a lull afterwards, but I certainly I dont see any crash off the back of it.  If there is a general slow down the goverment will start backing 95% mortgages, they'll be waiting to see how it plays out first IMO. 

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SDLT won't cause a crash, putting it back on will take some of the forth out of the market but people will adjust - its just not that much in the grand scheme of things. 

Even for the max impact person buying a house for £500k dead its £15k to find. Some will. Some will find £10k and not put in a new kitchen this year. £5k hit for seller. 

Some will only find £5k and the person above will take a £10k hit. Etc. Its not crash ville. 

 

When you are in a chain and things happen people tend to find solutions. Not just habitually collapse the chain. The thing happening can be worse than SDLT being reapplied and solutions sought. To so such an extent, it's not unheard of for top seller in the chain to buy the first rung just to make it happen. 

 

It may, because people are on the fence about waiting or pulling the trigger on buying a house will lean towards a move due to SDLT, however if its permanently there, or if its permanently gone the urgency won't be there. 

I think we may see stagnation once they either suspend or permanently implement SDLT. We will also get to the point where all the work from home people that were going to move will have already done so.

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It may, because people are on the fence about waiting or pulling the trigger on buying a house will lean towards a move due to SDLT, however if its permanently there, or if its permanently gone the urgency won't be there. 

I think we may see stagnation once they either suspend or permanently implement SDLT. We will also get to the point where all the work from home people that were going to move will have already done so.

Im not saying it won't impact the market, at all, but this site is great about making mountains out of molehills and then yet again a crash doesn't happen and the market rumbles on.

See "death of BTL thread" from 2016 etc etc yet in the real world BTL mortgages are still being given out in significant numbers 4 years later. 

 

You want to move home. Your in a chain expecting a £15k SDLT saving the max gain possible for a £500k purchase .. For whatever reason the chain collapses march 31st.

You still want to move home that hasn't changed. Worst case you offer 15k less somewhere else so £485k, assuming you havent saved anything at all in that time so might now be in a position to cover 6k of it. 

Bit rubbish but a seller isn't going to suddenly accept 30% less nor would you expect it. 

Once all the work from home people have moved what happens next? Again it won't be a blind crash. If we all go back to offices all those that haven't moved to London (what's the point if I can wfh in Newcastle) will want to pushing up flat prices there.. If it becomes a perm move to wfh some who have held out will move out. Market always changing but nearly always slowly in the absense of massive shocks - SDLT isn't one of them. 

 

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My predictions:

  • Lockdown until April then a repeat of 2020's Summer and Autumn
  • House prices flat
  • Gold and silver up
  • Bitcoin up
  • US markets setting new ATHs on a regular basis
  • Inflation up but not by much
  • More money printing both here and across the pond
  • New type of furlough scheme and more grants available
  • Riots and protests common place

This year has certainly been one to forget, the markets are broken, society is broken and the dream of owning my own home is slowly fading away.

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Exactly.  £15K is nack all in the grand scheme of things. Physiologically it meant that people brought there plans forward, so there may be a lull afterwards, but I certainly I dont see any crash off the back of it.  If there is a general slow down the goverment will start backing 95% mortgages, they'll be waiting to see how it plays out first IMO. 

Wise words

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Exactly.  £15K is nack all in the grand scheme of things. Physiologically it meant that people brought there plans forward, so there may be a lull afterwards, but I certainly I dont see any crash off the back of it.  If there is a general slow down the goverment will start backing 95% mortgages, they'll be waiting to see how it plays out first IMO. 

This is right really and if the chain realises there are no stamp duty discounts to be had, in theory everyone just reduces the offer down by the necessary amount and the person at the top of the chain takes the hit - and they can probably easily afford it. Perhaps instead of chains collapsing we just see more realistic prices than were initially offered hitting the land registry. 
 

Certainly, though, there are some people who can’t afford a penny more on their purchase - and probably can’t quite afford it in the first place, forgetting some of the necessary costs such as removals. Or they just don’t know how to properly keep track of the costs and eventually realise they are £1k short. 

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The only way we are going to see the desperately needed house price crash is if interest rates increase and I can't see that happening. As long as interest rates are low and the Bank of England and the government flood the country with cheap money, house prices will only one way.

Of course this is merely saving up trouble for the future. History tells us that asset bubbles always collapse. All you can do is delay the crash and longer you do that, the bigger the crash when it does happen.

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A national program of general needs social housing is what's required to get the country working again and to relieve the acute demand pressure in the private rental sector.

The current arrangement costs the UK govt approx. £100bn/yr to maintain. Ruinously unsustainable.

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I expect a new tier 6 by late January in England. All essential retailers will be forced to close and all food must be ordered for home delivery (bar NHS staff and elderly who can still visit food stores in one hour slots).

Only estate agents on the high street will be allowed to remain open and the only people allowed inside your home outside your social bubble and carers etc will be people coming to view your home for sale.

Frankly nothing would surprise me - as property is where the Cabinet especially Sunak and Jenrick have their investments. Pubs or restaurants shutting for good - who cares - house price falls however are simply unacceptable! 

 

Edited by MARTINX9
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I expect a new tier 6 by late January in England. All essential retailers will be forced to close and all food must be ordered for home delivery (bar NHS staff and elderly who can still visit food stores in one hour slots).

Only estate agents on the high street will be allowed to remain open and the only people allowed inside your home outside your social bubble and carers etc will be people coming to view your home for sale.

Frankly nothing would surprise me - as property is where the Cabinet especially Sunak and Jenrick have their investments. Pubs or restaurants shutting for good - who cares - house price falls however are simply unacceptable! 

 

Estate agents will find a new side hustle in selling essential groceries.

Edited by Si1
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The only way we are going to see the desperately needed house price crash is if interest rates increase and I can't see that happening. As long as interest rates are low and the Bank of England and the government flood the country with cheap money, house prices will only one way.

Of course this is merely saving up trouble for the future. History tells us that asset bubbles always collapse. All you can do is delay the crash and longer you do that, the bigger the crash when it does happen.

Am I right in saying if they don't raise interest rates and keep printing money fiat currency will collapse before the asset bubble collapses?

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10M unemployment by April

20% house price crash in London

Less immigrants

30% Decrease in GDP

Tier 5 Lockdown

 

 

close.

 

I was thinking 2021 will be the onset of the mass redundancies and the start of some pretty major riots/civil unrest.

followed shortly after by another falklands or iraq type escapade.

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I do not agree the population has had enough wars recently, trumps move to bring back the troops was popular, and China is an economic war 

Economic war with China? You're smoking crack rocks!

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-trade/eu-seeks-to-rebalance-china-ties-with-investment-agreement-idUKKBN2941AP

BRUSSELS (Reuters) -The European Union and China agreed on Wednesday to an investment deal that will give European companies greater access to Chinese markets and help redress what Europe sees as unbalanced economic ties.

The agreement was negotiated for nearly seven years and is likely to take at least another year to enter into force. It forms part of a new relationship with China, which the EU views as both a partner and a systemic rival.

European firms will gain permission to operate in China in electric cars, telecom cloud services and certain activities linked to air and maritime transport, such as ground handling.

Joint venture requirements will fall away for the automotive sector, many financial services, private hospitals, advertising, real estate and environmental services, such as sewage.

Companies that could benefit include Daimler, BMW, Peugeot, Allianz and Siemens, all with a large presence in China.

China will pass laws to ban forced transfer of technology from foreign companies, and has pledged to be more transparent on subsidies and bar state-owned enterprises from discriminating against foreign investors.

In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron said relations between the EU and China had strengthened in recent years and would continue to do so.

Macron offered to visit China in the coming months along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss other areas of cooperation.

 

 

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Economic war with China? You're smoking crack rocks!

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-trade/eu-seeks-to-rebalance-china-ties-with-investment-agreement-idUKKBN2941AP

BRUSSELS (Reuters) -The European Union and China agreed on Wednesday to an investment deal that will give European companies greater access to Chinese markets and help redress what Europe sees as unbalanced economic ties.

The agreement was negotiated for nearly seven years and is likely to take at least another year to enter into force. It forms part of a new relationship with China, which the EU views as both a partner and a systemic rival.

European firms will gain permission to operate in China in electric cars, telecom cloud services and certain activities linked to air and maritime transport, such as ground handling.

Joint venture requirements will fall away for the automotive sector, many financial services, private hospitals, advertising, real estate and environmental services, such as sewage.

Companies that could benefit include Daimler, BMW, Peugeot, Allianz and Siemens, all with a large presence in China.

China will pass laws to ban forced transfer of technology from foreign companies, and has pledged to be more transparent on subsidies and bar state-owned enterprises from discriminating against foreign investors.

In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron said relations between the EU and China had strengthened in recent years and would continue to do so.

Macron offered to visit China in the coming months along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss other areas of cooperation.

 

 

They are pretending to be friends, you will see

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-Not making any house price predictions because  I have been wrong many times.

 

-We will start to put Covid behind us in May/June, due to hot whether and vaccines, however there will be a divide between those wanting to completely return to normal, and those still wanting to maintain masks, social distancing etc.

 

-Gold/Silver steadily up.  Bitcoin might go up even more, then correct.

 

-I predict a major EU country will need a bailout by the ECB, maybe the EU will insist on a "technical" government (as opposed to democratic)

 

-Biden will be a lame duck president from day one

 

-Social unrest in many western countries

 

-the pound will recover to £1:$1.40

 

-Oil recovers to $60 per barrel

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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