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2021...how far will prices fall?


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As per the title. Here are two predictions from the article:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/21/house-prices-drop-2021-as-covid-impact-hits?CMP=share_btn_link

Halifax

"House prices in the UK are expected to fall by up to 5% next year."

OBR

"The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s economics forecaster, expects that house prices will plunge by more than 8% next year before staging a rapid recovery in 2022."

[This prediction was made a while ago before news of the worsening Covid situation.]

So, what do people think 2021 will bring drops-wise? Closest answer wins a hamper or a London flat - whichever is cheaper on 31st Dec 2021.*

 

 

* a post of a picture of a hamper or flat. Always read the small print.

Edited by Voice of Doom
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Well assuming I was contemplating and encouraged putting in a 425 offer on a 475 before it sold the day after the sd announcement..... and has stayed sstc since and houses near have also gone sstc at 500 and 550.

does that equate to a 20 percent + fall or no fall as last sold 400?

really a mental situation.

Without distressed sellers the market is going to be really stodgy as vendors will not go back to reality unless forced to do so.

Also I have a few small court cases against folk from before COVID that have yet to get to hearing I doubt that folk not paying mortgages or rent will be in the court in 2021 due to the massive backlog.

How can most folk paying London rent be fouloughed to the limit and still pay that rent and or mortgage.

Edited by Fromage Frais
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I'm going 5% positive growth. 90% lending coming back online through multiple banks, plenty of demand, interest rates will remain low leading to continued good affordability, life will return to normal in the next 6 months, the economy will recover and a few hundred quid a year in extra tax isn't going to make most of the middle classes lose any sleep. Brexit I think will pass largely without a whimper. The stamp duty holiday may or may not be extended but won't impact on many buyers who are below threshold anyway. Those looking at the half million pound end of the market will probably mostly shrug and go ah well, would have been nice but whatever. 

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I'm going 5% positive growth. 90% lending coming back online through multiple banks, plenty of demand, interest rates will remain low leading to continued good affordability, life will return to normal in the next 6 months, the economy will recover and a few hundred quid a year in extra tax isn't going to make most of the middle classes lose any sleep. Brexit I think will pass largely without a whimper. The stamp duty holiday may or may not be extended but won't impact on many buyers who are below threshold anyway. Those looking at the half million pound end of the market will probably mostly shrug and go ah well, would have been nice but whatever. 

Wow..rose lacquered specs well and truly on. 
Brexit without a whimper? Really? Have you seen today’s news and what’s happening at channel ports? This is just a taster of what’s to come if there’s a no deal.

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Prices tend to shoot up then remain very very sticky to come down again.
 

I think at best there will be sideways prices until fiat inflation finally reaches the selling prices 

Any signs of falls and they will juice the market again. 

it’s going to be years until stamp duty comes back, and it will a very slow re-introduction at a small % when/if it does come back 

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I'm going for stagnation.  Zombie market, level prices, 1.5-3% Inflation adjusted drop.

We hope for drama on here, but look at house prices over the last 15 years, its mostly mundane - steady gains, slow falls.  The volatility of London was unrepresentative.

Without the QE effect even London would have been boring. Overpriced but not massively.  It was about 50% higher than Sussex in the 80s.  Nobody found that remarkable at the time IIRC.

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I'm going 5% positive growth. 90% lending coming back online through multiple banks, plenty of demand, interest rates will remain low leading to continued good affordability, life will return to normal in the next 6 months, the economy will recover and a few hundred quid a year in extra tax isn't going to make most of the middle classes lose any sleep. Brexit I think will pass largely without a whimper. The stamp duty holiday may or may not be extended but won't impact on many buyers who are below threshold anyway. Those looking at the half million pound end of the market will probably mostly shrug and go ah well, would have been nice but whatever. 

Random musings without justification. Entertaining to read.

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Only a fool would take a profit on Bitcoin now.

So we’ve all been told.

Constantly...

I'm adopting now this strategy so when it does crash I can say I told you so. 

Of course, when Markyh buys the UK out from under us all and delivers us unto a life of servitude he will probably tattoo/brand 'I told you so' on our arses. 

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This really depends on the end of government support including furlough and stamp duty holiday. On average 5/10% looks about right but the effect will be more/less depending on the area. 

Another factor is how long we continue in lockdown, I think some form of restrictions will be in place until earliest middle of 2021 but more likely Autumn 2021.

 

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