Buffer Bear Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 (edited) Apologies if RM's index has been posted today as I only had time to do a quick scan of posts. Gosh, I must be tired! I've just noticed that every region is reflecting falls - see thisismoney link/RM link! On this basis, the 0.6 fall is seasonally adjusted (edited to add this line). https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/ Most articles published on Monday highlight the annual growth this year (6.6%) and the 4% 'boom' that is set for 2021 yet mostly did not reference the fall in HPI. The reported fall (0.6%), however, is buried away within several of the article below. https://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/rightmove-forecast-robust-4-price-growth-in-2021.html London down again by 1.5%. This fits with my sense of what is happening on the ground but may be a little optimistic i.e. the falls are greater. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9043811/House-prices-forecast-soar-4-2021-near-7-rise.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-14/u-k-property-boom-will-last-another-year-rightmove-says https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/property/what-happen-bristols-house-prices-4790688 Edited December 15, 2020 by Buffer Bear spacing and sentence added. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 So asking prices are back to 28th November levels? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Buffer Bear Posted December 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 (edited) So asking prices are back to 28th November levels? Yes, and soon to be November 2012. In all seriousness, if I see 15% fall, I may jump in unless I can find a better use for my 'deposit'. Edited December 15, 2020 by Buffer Bear added: "fall" Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sprrite Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sometimes you can really got overwhelmed with so many statistics telling you opposite things. Where I am looking to buy in London, the prices are receding, and the ads on zoopla and rightmost are also staying on for much longer too. I'm not taking a lot but I have seen flat in Zone 4/5 been reduced albeit from an overly optimistic price target. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dweller Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just posted this on another thread but thought I would post it here too. https://inews.co.uk/opinion/brexit-house-prices-no-deal-forecast-794268?ITO=newsnow Even without Brexit, the amount of uncertainty we currently face cannot be underestimated. “I could just as easily argue for why house prices will be up by eight per cent next year – economic boom and bounce back – as to why they could be down by eight per cent – business impact of leaving the EU and knock-on effect on people’s ability to pay their mortgages. In short, all bets are off, but what’s for sure is that Brexit – whether it’s no-deal or a last-minute deal – certainly carries a huge amount of risk for the housing market.” Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just posted this on another thread but thought I would post it here too. https://inews.co.uk/opinion/brexit-house-prices-no-deal-forecast-794268?ITO=newsnow Even without Brexit, the amount of uncertainty we currently face cannot be underestimated. “I could just as easily argue for why house prices will be up by eight per cent next year – economic boom and bounce back – as to why they could be down by eight per cent – business impact of leaving the EU and knock-on effect on people’s ability to pay their mortgages. In short, all bets are off, but what’s for sure is that Brexit – whether it’s no-deal or a last-minute deal – certainly carries a huge amount of risk for the housing market.” Same could be said of covid. Could be a bounce from being covid free from summer. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
markyh Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sometimes you can really got overwhelmed with so many statistics telling you opposite things. Where I am looking to buy in London, the prices are receding, and the ads on zoopla and rightmost are also staying on for much longer too. I'm not taking a lot but I have seen flat in Zone 4/5 been reduced albeit from an overly optimistic price target. Until UK Gov HPI index goes YOY negative in every region as it did in Q4 2008 , it's not worth worrying about. Best to just keep tabs on what is happening where you live, or want to live. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dweller Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just posted this on another thread but thought I would post it here too. https://inews.co.uk/opinion/brexit-house-prices-no-deal-forecast-794268?ITO=newsnow Even without Brexit, the amount of uncertainty we currently face cannot be underestimated. “I could just as easily argue for why house prices will be up by eight per cent next year – economic boom and bounce back – as to why they could be down by eight per cent – business impact of leaving the EU and knock-on effect on people’s ability to pay their mortgages. In short, all bets are off, but what’s for sure is that Brexit – whether it’s no-deal or a last-minute deal – certainly carries a huge amount of risk for the housing market.” So just looking at the 2018 article linked in the above article,on what basis was Carney in 2018 predicting 35% falls in his worst case scenario Brexit? Why are things bouncy bouncy when every EA we speak to says that the market was flat for years after the Brexit vote yet here we are weeks away from a hard brexit ('deal' or no deal) with the market all bouncy bouncy, or at least it would be if there was any stock. Article in which Carney said that when we was speaking of 35% house price falls he wasn't predicting a no deal house price crash! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/14/bank-not-predicting-no-deal-house-price-slump-says-governor Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dweller Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sometimes you can really got overwhelmed with so many statistics telling you opposite things. Where I am looking to buy in London, the prices are receding, and the ads on zoopla and rightmost are also staying on for much longer too. I'm not taking a lot but I have seen flat in Zone 4/5 been reduced albeit from an overly optimistic price target. I don't know about London but I would say that the above is the pattern I see. Property now gets put on at a loopy price and it even sells immediately or slowly drops back to the usual loopy price. That said, quite a few properties I have been watching that have been on for AGES and overpriced have gone the past week, guess there is just so little choice/stock. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dweller Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 So just looking at the 2018 article linked in the above article,on what basis was Carney in 2018 predicting 35% falls in his worst case scenario Brexit? Why are things bouncy bouncy when every EA we speak to says that the market was flat for years after the Brexit vote yet here we are weeks away from a hard brexit ('deal' or no deal) with the market all bouncy bouncy, or at least it would be if there was any stock. Article in which Carney said that when we was speaking of 35% house price falls he wasn't predicting a no deal house price crash! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/14/bank-not-predicting-no-deal-house-price-slump-says-governor Based on the same article (and being a complete Dummy) Carney in the same article was speaking about interest rates jumping to 4% (from 0.75%) in the case of the worst case scenario and a no deal Brexit , now they look like they will go into negative territory so what does that mean? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
zugzwang Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Based on the same article (and being a complete Dummy) Carney in the same article was speaking about interest rates jumping to 4% (from 0.75%) in the case of the worst case scenario and a no deal Brexit , now they look like they will go into negative territory so what does that mean? 1. Carney is a know-nothing charlatan. Anything he says or has ever said should be ignored. 2. Another £300bn has been put on the national debt since March. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Apologies if RM's index has been posted today as I only had time to do a quick scan of posts. Gosh, I must be tired! I've just noticed that every region is reflecting falls - see thisismoney link/RM link! On this basis, the 0.6 fall is seasonally adjusted (edited to add this line). https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/ Most articles published on Monday highlight the annual growth this year (6.6%) and the 4% 'boom' that is set for 2021 yet mostly did not reference the fall in HPI. The reported fall (0.6%), however, is buried away within several of the article below. https://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/rightmove-forecast-robust-4-price-growth-in-2021.html London down again by 1.5%. This fits with my sense of what is happening on the ground but may be a little optimistic i.e. the falls are greater. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9043811/House-prices-forecast-soar-4-2021-near-7-rise.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-14/u-k-property-boom-will-last-another-year-rightmove-says https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/property/what-happen-bristols-house-prices-4790688 Sounds familliar... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Rightmove's (initial) Asking Price Index isn't seasonally adjusted. It's always down in December if I recall, and was down 0.9% this month last year. In 2018, the December fall was 1.5%. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Yes, and soon to be November 2012. In all seriousness, if I see 15% fall, I may jump in unless I can find a better use for my 'deposit'. I'm looking for another property but waiting until May 2021. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jiltedjen Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Rightmove's (initial) Asking Price Index isn't seasonally adjusted. It's always down in December if I recall, and was down 0.9% this month last year. In 2018, the December fall was 1.5%. so a fall of 0.6% is quite bullish on property in reality. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 so a fall of 0.6% is quite bullish on property in reality. That would be my conclusion Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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