Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

No Deal Brexit = NI House Price Boom


Recommended Posts

Ok bear with me....

yes we know there is there is a lot of pain to come paying back the debt , furloughed become unemployed , economic shock of no deal and also Covid is going to get ugly in Jan...But...

Obviously no deal Brexit is going to be a short/medium term hit to economy. But..... Don’t know if this has been fully grasped at this late stage esp by the average punter in GB but in a no deal Northern Ireland retains tariff & quota free access to the EU market (not just Ireland) while the rest of the UK does not.

If you manufacture a product in NI you continue to export to the EU without the need for customs forms / tariffs etc, in effect just like now whilst UK still in Single Market, manufacturers based in Eng / Scot / Wales will relocate to NI.

Property would outperform rest of UK....

 

Edited by getdoon_weebobby
Link to post
Share on other sites
 

Ok bear with me....

yes we know there is there is a lot of pain to come paying back the debt , furloughed become unemployed , economic shock of no deal and also Covid is going to get ugly in Jan...But...

Obviously no deal Brexit is going to be a short/medium term hit to economy. But..... Don’t know if this has been fully grasped at this late stage esp by the average punter in GB but in a no deal Northern Ireland retains tariff & quota free access to the EU market (not just Ireland) while the rest of the UK does not.

If you manufacture a product in NI you continue to export to the EU without the need for customs forms / tariffs etc, in effect just like now whilst UK still in Single Market, manufacturers based in Eng / Scot / Wales will relocate to NI.

Property would outperform rest of UK....

 

Definitely an interesting one to think about. So many variables and obviously the sums will be different for multinational vs smaller manufacturers. Contract manufacturing or not etc. 

I expect the tradeoff will be this. If you're going to go to the effort of relocating across the Irish Sea, what's the difference between tariff and non tariff barriers vs corporation tax savings. I.e. is it cheaper to manufacture in NI and ship to UK Europe or pay the tariff and manufacture in IE. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I would assume this may lead to three things. 

1. GB companies relocating to NI to avoid tariffs

2. A slight boost the NI economy and therefore a softening of price drops in the 2-5 year time scale

3. A widespread feeling of resentment of NI within the rest of the UK, that could lead to calls for a breakup of the union. After all the UK funds Northern Ireland via the block grant to an extent much greater than the tax revenue generated here, will they really want NI to enjoy better conditions than they have despite being a drain on UK resources? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
 

I would assume this may lead to three things. 

1. GB companies relocating to NI to avoid tariffs

2. A slight boost the NI economy and therefore a softening of price drops in the 2-5 year time scale

3. A widespread feeling of resentment of NI within the rest of the UK, that could lead to calls for a breakup of the union. After all the UK funds Northern Ireland via the block grant to an extent much greater than the tax revenue generated here, will they really want NI to enjoy better conditions than they have despite being a drain on UK resources? 

It is all very interesting and with nothing set in stone it is impossible to make major strategic decisions to relocate. However I imagine manufactures in England have been putting off expansion plans for that very reason. 

If the dice rolls a certain way NI may be the only location that can export, without taffifs to bot GB and the UK. That may place it at an advantage over ROI and GB for an English speaking location. Had we obtained the power to set our own C Tax then we could have become a player.

Re the block grant there are many parts of GB that run at a neg tax/grant with sometimes areas in the north of England in even worse positions. however, I agree it would not be a good idea to keep reminding English Nationalists. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Difficult to say how it will play out, but think of it this way, what is actually changing?  In reality nothing good is changing, we can already export to the EU.  What is bad that is changing is that there will be checks on goods coming into NI from the UK and also on certain items going the other way.  Sure, we might get manufacturers deciding to leave Britain, but come off it if you think they would bypass Amsterdam, Frankfurt or Dublin for Belfast or Larne.  We just have the less sticky end of the stick.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.