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House Price Crash Forum

There will never be a significant House Price Crash.


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Define significant....

10 to 15% is still realistic in my eyes but this is more a correction than a crash. 

I've said it on this forum before but wait till the majority of the electorate are renters and you will start to see the discourse and narrative change. Changes have been incrementally made such as mortgage interest rate relief and second home stamp duty.

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The powers that be and VIs will never allow it

They would never have allowed a crash in the past either, and yet it has happened before. Perhaps they're not as omnipotent as you think. 

 

we are not building enough to meet the demand

That depends what that demand is. If you're talking about demand for new builds in London/Manchester/Birmingham then that's just money laundering and financial speculation.  

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They have dont have much dry power left IMO, maybe prop it up for another year or two ?  

Well I really do wonder if a no deal brexit goes ahead, what do they do to prop up the economy especially after covid.

Negative interest rates?

Further borrowing and stimulus?

No easy choices right now.

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I've said it on this forum before but wait till the majority of the electorate are renters and you will start to see the discourse and narrative change. Changes have been incrementally made such as mortgage interest rate relief and second home stamp duty.

Well yes, but how long have we got?

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Yep. House prices are up 6% since everyone told me not to buy in the summer. 

And much more if you had bought 10 years ago

 

They have dont have much dry power left IMO, maybe prop it up for another year or two ?  

Maybe maybe not who can say.

But in the meantime do you want to shove money into a LL bin? 

 

Well yes, but how long have we got?

Exactly

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I've said it on this forum before but wait till the majority of the electorate are renters and you will start to see the discourse and narrative change

The narrative is already changing. 

Deposit protection, tenant fees removal, minimum EPC, and revenge eviction clauses are all recent changes that have helped tenants at the expensive of Landlords. It's also a Tory manifesto pledge to remove S21 during this parliament.

I can think of no recent policies that have helped landlords at the expense of tenants. This will/has to continue and if Labour get elected in 3.5 years time then expect to see it accelerate.  

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The only house reason prices haven't fallen in 2020 is due to the government paying millions of people mortgages for them.

They will continue to pay these mortgages until March 2021, at the taxpayers expense.

 

If they want to avoid a crash forever then they can pay peoples mortgages forever by printing the money and handing it out as furlough or citizens income, as working in a real job to pay a mortgage is becoming old news.

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I believe that effectively there are only 4 options available.

1. Over pay for a 5hitbox

2. Rent / lease / shareholder

3. Inherit property

4  Move and buy cheaper abroad.

Prices will never be allowed to fall. People are fooked.   

  

Edited by FANG
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They would never have allowed a crash in the past either, and yet it has happened before. Perhaps they're not as omnipotent as you think.  

...and with all the debts piling up, their scope for action is getting more and more narrow.

If IR's just twitch upwards there will be chaos...and thats just one knife at their throats thanks to BREXIT and COVID.

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It's called Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI).

 

Which is now a loan whereas before, and for as far back as i can remember, it was a non-repayable benefit. 

Same with all these mortgage holidays. They're just deferred payments that have to be repaid at some point and hit a borrower's changes of getting that 2 year fix they so desperately need. 

Slowly but surely we're running out of road for that kicked can to travel down. 

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...and with all the debts piling up, their scope for action is getting more and more narrow.

If IR's just twitch upwards there will be chaos...and thats just one knife at their throats thanks to BREXIT and COVID.

They will manipulate Interest rates as they have been doing for years along with house prices.

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They will manipulate Interest rates as they have been doing for years along with house prices.

Its all a bit glib isnt it.

If "they" refers to the British establishment...surely they only have that power IF the debt is borrowed from British sources? I believe that applies to Japan, in that their debt is owed to the Japanese themselves. I suspect the majority of our debt is sourced internationally, so it is up to Mr Market.

In fact it wouldnt be beyond the pale to see IRs manipulated to disadvantage post BREXIT UK IF we dont follow the agenda set in the next few days! I suspect that is weighing heavy on several minds within the Cabinet right now.

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...and with all the debts piling up, their scope for action is getting more and more narrow.

If IR's just twitch upwards there will be chaos...and thats just one knife at their throats thanks to BREXIT and COVID.

The office for budget responsibility is limiting Sunaks credit card for that very reason

Edited by Si1
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