RICS - 'Market Losing Steam'

[Buffer Bear]

BBC News - Demand for property 'losing a bit of steam'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55249133

[Smiley George]

Despite the predicted slowdown it is not expecting a significant fall in house prices.

It pointed out that "stickier" property prices could cause affordability problems for some people hoping to buy a home.

Not all good news then. Not sure I understand the 2nd part, if people aren’t going to be able afford the prices who are sellers going to transact with unless they reduce the price?

[satsuma]

People are still spending hand over fist, it seems they see the Furlough cash as free money to be enjoyed and the stamp duty saving as free money not to be missed.  Both are soon going to run out at the same time as the dole queues are getting longer.   

[captainb]

 

Despite the predicted slowdown it is not expecting a significant fall in house prices.

It pointed out that "stickier" property prices could cause affordability problems for some people hoping to buy a home.

Not all good news then. Not sure I understand the 2nd part, if people aren’t going to be able afford the prices who are sellers going to transact with unless they reduce the price?

Then sellers don't transact. 

Yes people die, divorce etc but that's not your average seller. 

See decline in volume of sales since 2008 and its impact or lack of on prices.

 

For a significant fall you need people not being able to buy and people forced to sell. Retail closing isn't quite the same as banks collapsing. 

I

[Sausage]

 

People are still spending hand over fist, it seems they see the Furlough cash as free money to be enjoyed and the stamp duty saving as free money not to be missed.  Both are soon going to run out at the same time as the dole queues are getting longer.   

I'd like to see stats on credit card debt during lockdown... I reckon the safe jobs WFH brigade have been splashing out with money they've saved by not commuting. But the furloughed folks must have run out of cash by now?

[HovelinHove]

 

Then sellers don't transact. 

Yes people die, divorce etc but that's not your average seller. 

See decline in volume of sales since 2008 and its impact or lack of on prices.

 

For a significant fall you need people not being able to buy and people forced to sell. Retail closing isn't quite the same as banks collapsing. 

I

I think it will be a long slow grind down now, maybe the market will just stay still for a few year, or drift down a few percent a year. Before lockdown, our area had loads of houses that had been on for a year, but they all got cleared out. With all the government help, and no doubt more to come, there will not be enough forced sellers to create the dynamics for a true crash. I am seeing some reductions again, and I am seeing properties stick around longer, but I am also seeing good homes that are well priced going quite quickly.

I think after Christmas, and especially February onwards, cash buyers will be able to get 5-10% off 2019 prices on sellers who are desperate, otherwise like you say, people will just sit there and wait. 

Been a miserable year for HPCers.

[msi]

 

I think after Christmas, and especially February onwards, cash buyers will be able to get 5-10% off 2019 prices on sellers who are desperate, otherwise like you say, people will just sit there and wait. 

Been a miserable year for HPCers.

I agree, but don't underestimate the pressure to sell.  Free furlough money, bank forbearance, and cheap credit are keeping people solvent for now.  That all runs out Q1 2021.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

 

I think it will be a long slow grind down now, maybe the market will just stay still for a few year, or drift down a few percent a year. Before lockdown, our area had loads of houses that had been on for a year, I think after Christmas, and especially February onwards, cash buyers will be able to get 5-10% off 2019 prices on sellers who are desperate, otherwise like you say, people will just sit there and wait. 

Been a miserable year for HPCers.

 

[dpg50000]

 

I agree, but don't underestimate the pressure to sell.  Free furlough money, bank forbearance, and cheap credit are keeping people solvent for now.  That all runs out Q1 2021.

Until it doesn't, as this cowardly government will extend it and kick the can if there's the slightest hint of protest on social media.

[sammersmith]

 

'losing a bit of steam'

I thought the VI’s official BS metaphor was ‘pausing for breath’?

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

Christmas/New Year will be an interesting time, dividing those that want to sell (probably reduce price), and kite fliers (wait for Spring 2021).  Not that RICs spin.

[Si1]

 

I thought the VI’s official BS metaphor was ‘pausing for breath’?

steady as she goes?

 

on another note - 'stickier' - stickier than what? A toffee apple?

 

but I do agree that property prices are sticky on the downside, perhaps except for BTL fodder.

[Si1]

treading water

in the doldrums

lacking direction

going sideways

increasing yields

a buyer's market so get in now

waiting for positive news

[Smiley George]

 

Yes people die, divorce etc but that's not your average seller.

I agree the only thing that will force a change is a significant growth in the number of forced sellers.

[Unmoderated]

 

I agree, but don't underestimate the pressure to sell.  Free furlough money, bank forbearance, and cheap credit are keeping people solvent for now.  That all runs out Q1 2021.

TBH the only thing running out in Q1 is the furlough - and that will be replaced with some improvement with easing lockdowns I expect. Certainly we will have a better summer this year than last and with reluctance to travel people may well be spending their money here. 

[cbathpc]

 

I'd like to see stats on credit card debt during lockdown... I reckon the safe jobs WFH brigade have been splashing out with money they've saved by not commuting. But the furloughed folks must have run out of cash by now?

My missus was on furlough for 4 months, she never had more money due to saving on commuting, childcare, etc. Financially as a family coronavirus was the best thing thats ever happened to us.

Edited December 10, 2020 by cbathpc
typo

[Freki]

The inventory in my search area is melting away. 

From an avg of 90 properties available in the summer, it is now reaching 63... madness

I hope 2021 will bring inventory back

[gruffydd]

What market? There is barely any housing coming on... if the current "market" is losing steam, then we can expect a major correction in prices next year, come what may. 

[Trump Invective]

 

BBC News - Demand for property 'losing a bit of steam'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55249133

From that article:

 

"There is little sense that the projected softer sales picture will feed through into pricing which is viewed as likely to prove rather stickier in the face of ongoing macro challenges," he said.

 

Can someone explain if this means prices will rise or go down?

[Sausage]

 

The inventory in my search area is melting away. 

From an avg of 90 properties available in the summer, it is now reaching 63... madness

I hope 2021 will bring inventory back

same in mine - in june there were 250 unsold properties, now 125.

[gruffydd]

 

From that article:

 

"There is little sense that the projected softer sales picture will feed through into pricing which is viewed as likely to prove rather stickier in the face of ongoing macro challenges," he said.

 

Can someone explain if this means prices will rise or go down?

Down. 

[Si1]

 

From that article:

 

"There is little sense that the projected softer sales picture will feed through into pricing which is viewed as likely to prove rather stickier in the face of ongoing macro challenges," he said.

 

Can someone explain if this means prices will rise or go down?

it's just an illogical nonsense sentence

[LookingForLondon]

I think the demand for good houses is probably still there, but people are perhaps bored of the market as nothing new is coming on. That’s the case with me - I look at Rightmove far less because I know nothing interesting is likely to have been added vs summer when loads of houses were coming online.

People looking to sell should take advantage of the total lack of supply - I would imagine right now is the time someone would desperately splash the cash to move, and possibly at the highest price an area would see this year or next.

[sammersmith]

 

same in mine - in june there were 250 unsold properties, now 125.

I'm seeing a similar pattern. Nothing, and i mean nothing, but horrible overpriced junk is coming on the market. The overall numbers are all down too. 

I've changed my area and house priorities this year so i don't know if this is standard for the time of year or not. However, I would have thought the often talked about Christmas slowdown would not be apparent this year as sellers would be keen to list asap to get some of that money that buyers saved on the stamp duty. 

[Flopsy]

 

I'm seeing a similar pattern. Nothing, and i mean nothing, but horrible overpriced junk is coming on the market. The overall numbers are all down too. 

I've changed my area and house priorities this year so i don't know if this is standard for the time of year or not. However, I would have thought the often talked about Christmas slowdown would not be apparent this year as sellers would be keen to list asap to get some of that money that buyers saved on the stamp duty. 

Some of the "over priced rubbish" that I am seeing in my searches (in Bucks and Beds) is empty with no chain. These are family houses and the majority of low quality. Maybe a LL is selling up his stock slowly. There is the odd gem in there and I think one of these may be worth an offer. 

They are going "under offer"  already and sometimes coming back onto the market. 

Very little is coming through to the Land registry. One house was advertised for 325K and sold for 310K. It was a LL sale and empty. 

We are in no hurry to move. I'm still having medical treatment at a local hospital and the disruption could best be saved until next year. If the right house comes up in the right place though we will put in a offer.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Flopsy