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House Price Crash Forum

Halifax House Price Index Nov 2020


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The majority of the UK populace are idiots who think that an expensive and ever rising price of shelter is a good thing and should be celebrated.

Perhaps the majority of the UK populace who have bought a house are just getting on with their lives & enjoying their homes, rather than sitting on here for years on end being all salty.  

Edited by Martin_JD
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A bit off topic but how much does this feel like 2007/8 to you? It doesn't at all to me. 

I'm no economist, it feels like we haven't really had an economic shock. I remember in 2008 when the shops were desperately trying to shift their stock, massive reductions everywhere. Right now it just feels a lot of them have been propped up temporarily by the government for fear this might happen.

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I think it's fair to say that most, if not all of us were wrong about the house crash starting around now. Earlier in the year, 6 months ago or so, we were anticipating things would start to crumble around now but nothing of the sort has happened.  

Getting on the ladder has just become that much more difficult. If affects aren't felt now, don't think they will.  Pessimistic I know. 

 

 

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I think it's fair to say that most, if not all of us were wrong about the house crash starting around now. Earlier in the year, 6 months ago or so, we were anticipating things would start to crumble around now but nothing of the sort has happened.  

Getting on the ladder has just become that much more difficult. If affects aren't felt now, don't think they will.  Pessimistic I know. 

 

 

Where I am I'm more optimistic. I suspect bottom rung FTB/BTL fodder may be buoyant, but 2nd rung in my area, modest 4 bed family homes in West Leeds, seem to be coming to market a lot and drifting down in price.

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I think it's fair to say that most, if not all of us were wrong about the house crash starting around now. Earlier in the year, 6 months ago or so, we were anticipating things would start to crumble around now but nothing of the sort has happened.  

Getting on the ladder has just become that much more difficult. If affects aren't felt now, don't think they will.  Pessimistic I know. 

 

 

It’s all this free money, bounce back loans and furlough. Those have to end before I think we will see the damage.

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It’s all this free money, bounce back loans and furlough. Those have to end before I think we will see the damage.

Plenty on here were saying the government would only give BBL to proper companies, great controls yadda Yadda. 

All absolute nonsense. £35billion later including an estsimed £4billion to organised crime the scale of nonsense has become clearer. 

Interestingly the biggest % increase has been in properties 50k to 100k typically bought in cash. I wonder why. 

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A bit off topic but how much does this feel like 2007/8 to you? It doesn't at all to me. 

I'm no economist, it feels like we haven't really had an economic shock. I remember in 2008 when the shops were desperately trying to shift their stock, massive reductions everywhere. Right now it just feels a lot of them have been propped up temporarily by the government for fear this might happen.

Shops near me (south coast) have been closing for a few years, a slow stagnation. Many more have quietly closed in lockdown, without fanfare, shuttered due to covid then never reopened. Debenhams has a closing down sale, Argos shuttered, Thornton's ditto. Several phone shops gone. A few independents I noticed have gone. I might go and count them up on the weekend.

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https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/november-2020-house-price-index.pdf

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said:  
 
“House prices rose by more than 1% in November, adding almost £3,000 to the cost of a typical UK home. At just over £253,000, the average property price has risen by more than £15,000 since June. In percentage terms that equates to 6.5% - the strongest five-monthly gain since 2004. 
 
“With mortgage approvals at a 13-year high, the current market continues to be shaped by a desire for more space, the move from urban to rural locations and indications of a trend for more home working in the future. And while industry data shows agreed sales and new instructions to sell fell to their lowest in the past five months, both remain at historically high levels and well above seasonal norms.   
 “As the March deadline for the stamp duty holiday approaches, properties sold to home-movers recorded a much higher rate of annual house price inflation (+7.9%) than first-time buyers (+5.8%). It is interesting to note that the stamp duty saving of £2,500 on a home costing £250,000 is now far outweighed by the average increase in property prices since July
 
“The housing market has been much more resilient than many predicted at the outset of the pandemic, and indeed many households remain confident about further price growth next year. However, the economic environment continues to look challenging. With unemployment predicted to peak around the middle of next year, and the UK’s economy not expected to fully recover the ground lost over 2020 for a number of years, a slowdown in housing market activity is likely over the next 12 months.” 

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It is interesting to note that the stamp duty saving of £2,500 on a home costing £250,000 is now far outweighed by the average increase in property prices since July

Kind of what we all knew anyway, but nice that they've called it out directly. Hopefully the penny will start to drop wrt the stamp duty holiday and how mind-bogglingly stupid some have been in their FOMO moments.

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But wait for the usual posters who say BUT MMR BUT rates are going up BUT recession, BUT low volumes. The poll on the top right hand corner shows that over half gotten their house prices epically wrong (think Gordon Brown Gold sale) and only 8% even vaguely right. There has been a perception that property is a one way bet section 24 hasn't stopped two doors down being brought at new peak price by BTL landlord nor the other properties in other search areas i have. I want this market to crash but it is obvious the bank of england and HMG are in no way going to let that happen they would rather wreck the currency first. Anyone who thinks otherwise must have been living under a rock for the last few weeks.

 

Also those who cheered the SDLT removal saying it wouldn't affect prices or get geared up as a deposit seem to have been proved more than a little wrong too.

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