Si1 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 As per title. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Recession in my view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSvetz Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 this quarter will be a recovery of past 3 quarters? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nome Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 (edited) With all the added money spunking stimulus I expect it to be more of a tick shaped recovery... at least for asset prices. I've still yet to see any signs of an actual recession, everything is as busy, if not busier, than normal from what I can see and people seem to be spending more than ever. Edited December 6, 2020 by nome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 All good. Thankyou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dougless Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Depression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 (edited) With all the added money spunking stimulus I expect it to be more of a tick shaped recovery... at least for asset prices. I've still yet to see any signs of an actual recession, everything is as busy, if not busier, than normal from what I can see and people seem to be spending more than ever. where are you living ?, i see dead high sts, restaurants & shops , very quiet rds in NW I see a depression from the economic damage, its just not sunk in yet with so many in denial Edited December 6, 2020 by Saving For a Space Ship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 In the UK, stagflation. I think HM Govt & BoE will push on the strings harder than ever. Financial Times: Bank of England divisions on economic outlook revealed by MPC member There is a reason why in the history of money negative interest rates don't feature prominently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Spaniard Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Crack-up boom for certain currencies? This was written before COVID and the related QE. https://mises.org/library/hyperinflation-money-demand-and-crack-boom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 (edited) Depression. Are you going for the Lambda Shaped Recovery? λ (Are we up or down? Oh it’s down!!!) Edited December 6, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 This event doesn’t neatly fall into the usual pattern, because normally a recession hits all businesses, whereas COVID has all but killed some forever (office space), decimated others for years (travel/tourism) whilst many are unaffected (WFH professionals) and some positively booming (supermarket deliveries, zoom, Amazon). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin_JD Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 In the UK, stagflation. I think HM Govt & BoE will push on the strings harder than ever. Financial Times: Bank of England divisions on economic outlook revealed by MPC member There is a reason why in the history of money negative interest rates don't feature prominently. Yup, stragflation. Despite that, house prices will continue to rise as the government does something to prop up first time buyers lending, some kind of 95% mortgage scheme. People are eager to spend money, so certain industries will bounce back quickly imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Crack-up boom for certain currencies? This was written before COVID and the related QE. https://mises.org/library/hyperinflation-money-demand-and-crack-boom Tend to agree. Massive efforts have been made to keep some inflation in the system. There have been labour forces at work the last 30 years that have stopped general inflation, but which have helped assets. At some point this will break and general inflation will return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 A big, big Christmas hangover is just round the corner - even more printy will end badly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Tend to agree. Massive efforts have been made to keep some inflation in the system. There have been labour forces at work the last 30 years that have stopped general inflation, but which have helped assets. At some point this will break and general inflation will return. Govt, in terms of govt borrowing and MP private borrowing, in is dependent on low interest rates and may promote props as the solution even in an inflationary environment, aka stagflation, 1970s again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Former postman Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 We are in a flushed toilet, spinning around and around, about to be sucked down the waste pipe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 where are you living ?, i see dead high sts, restaurants & shops , very quiet rds in NW I see a depression from the economic damage, its just not sunk in yet with so many in denial Same West Mids - the only places I have seen queues is outside Maccies and to walk up Mam Tor ( the first bit before they take the selfie and head away making a more pleasant walk). Like you I see lots of shops not surviving and there's a lot of local paper stuff about iconic pub x or shop y closed for good in the regional towns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 We are in a flushed toilet, spinning around and around, about to be sucked down the waste pipe. But don't worry, the golden Brexit hinterlands of the sewers await. Led by the great Teenage Mutant Ninja Turds at the helm of the Conservative Party, we shall soon reach the sanctity of the sewage treatment works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 I'd reckon GDP will take a 10% hit. Itll be wierd as the hit will end in spring as tge cac us rolled out and tge sun starts to shine. The stuff being hit - retail n eateries were already hit by the internet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 If they agree a deal it’s will be some sort of v shaped recovery but we are not event at the bottom of the v yet. No deal and it’s lights out for 10 years of recession. Neither is very appealing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubuntu Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 K shaped Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetsBuild Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 (edited) It’s like shrodingers recession, could be anything lol. I’m getting the feeling from everyone I see and talk to is that Christmas is the number one distraction, let’s spoil ourselves now because we deserve it and don’t worry about the consequences. Manifesting itself in Christmas decorations going up mid November and loads of mindless shopping. I don’t know what people are going to do come the January hang over. Edited December 6, 2020 by LetsBuild Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 I don’t know anyone who has lost their job yet and there’s plenty of money sloshing around. See PS5 thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9024563/Bank-England-economist-says-Britain-saved-100bn-p gg andemic-time-spend.html The £100bn lockdown bonus: Bank of England economist Andy Haldane says Britons have saved bundles of cash during the pandemic... and now it's time to spend to rescue the economy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nome Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 where are you living ?, i see dead high sts, restaurants & shops , very quiet rds in NW I see a depression from the economic damage, its just not sunk in yet with so many in denial I'm in a tourist area in North Wales and since the end of lockdown no.1 it's been busier than ever, traffic volumes, shops etc etc I also work delivering peoples internet tat... again busier than ever. People I know who work in the leisure, tourism, pub and restaurant industry are (quietly) more than happy with all the various free money for doing nothing handouts they've been getting (grants, furlough, BBL's etc etc) and they're pretty gutted at the prospect of things getting back to normal for them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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