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Are we in a v-shaped recovery, a recession, or a depression?


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With all the added money spunking stimulus I expect it to be more of a tick shaped recovery... at least for asset prices.

I've still yet to see any signs of an actual recession, everything is as busy, if not busier, than normal from what I can see and people seem to be spending more than ever.

Edited by nome
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With all the added money spunking stimulus I expect it to be more of a tick shaped recovery... at least for asset prices.

I've still yet to see any signs of an actual recession, everything is as busy, if not busier, than normal from what I can see and people seem to be spending more than ever.

where are you living ?, i see dead high sts, restaurants & shops , very quiet rds in NW 

I see a depression from the economic damage, its just not sunk in yet with so many in denial 

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship
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Depression.

Are you going for the Lambda Shaped Recovery?

λ   (Are we up or down? Oh it’s down!!!)

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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This event doesn’t neatly fall into the usual pattern, because normally a recession hits all businesses, whereas COVID has all but killed some forever (office space), decimated others for years (travel/tourism) whilst many are unaffected (WFH professionals) and some positively booming (supermarket deliveries, zoom, Amazon).

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In the UK, stagflation.

I think HM Govt & BoE will push on the strings harder than ever.

Financial Times: Bank of England divisions on economic outlook revealed by MPC member

There is a reason why in the history of money negative interest rates don't feature prominently.

Yup, stragflation.  Despite that, house prices will continue to rise as the government does something to prop up first time buyers lending, some kind of 95% mortgage scheme.  

 

People are eager to spend money, so certain industries will bounce back quickly imo.

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Crack-up boom for certain currencies?

This was written before COVID and the related QE.

https://mises.org/library/hyperinflation-money-demand-and-crack-boom


Tend to agree.

Massive efforts have been made to keep some inflation in the system. There have been labour forces at work the last 30 years that have stopped general inflation, but which have helped assets. At some point this will break and general inflation will return.

 

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Tend to agree.

Massive efforts have been made to keep some inflation in the system. There have been labour forces at work the last 30 years that have stopped general inflation, but which have helped assets. At some point this will break and general inflation will return.

 

Govt, in terms of govt borrowing and MP private borrowing, in is dependent on low interest rates and may promote props as the solution even in an inflationary environment, aka stagflation, 1970s again

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where are you living ?, i see dead high sts, restaurants & shops , very quiet rds in NW 

I see a depression from the economic damage, its just not sunk in yet with so many in denial 

Same West Mids - the only places I have seen queues is outside Maccies and to walk up Mam Tor ( the first bit before they take the selfie and head away making a more pleasant walk).

Like you I see lots of shops not surviving and there's a lot of local paper stuff about iconic pub x or shop y closed for good in the regional towns.

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We are in a flushed toilet, spinning around and around, about to be sucked down the waste pipe. 

But don't worry, the golden Brexit hinterlands of the sewers await. Led by the great Teenage Mutant Ninja Turds at the helm of the Conservative Party, we shall soon reach the sanctity of the sewage treatment works.

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It’s like shrodingers recession, could be anything lol.

I’m getting the feeling from everyone I see and talk to is that Christmas is the number one distraction, let’s spoil ourselves now because we deserve it and don’t worry about the consequences. Manifesting itself in Christmas decorations going up mid November and loads of mindless shopping. I don’t know what people are going to do come the January hang over.

Edited by LetsBuild
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where are you living ?, i see dead high sts, restaurants & shops , very quiet rds in NW 

I see a depression from the economic damage, its just not sunk in yet with so many in denial 

I'm in a tourist area in North Wales and since the end of lockdown no.1 it's been busier than ever, traffic volumes, shops etc etc

I also work delivering peoples internet tat... again busier than ever.

People I know who work in the leisure, tourism, pub and restaurant industry are (quietly) more than happy with all the various free money for doing nothing handouts they've been getting (grants, furlough, BBL's etc etc) and they're pretty gutted at the prospect of things getting back to normal for them

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