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Scores on the doors for PL Dec 2020.

Don't shoot the messenger, although it's much better news this month !!!

House price down on the odd jump last month by -3% !!

House price down on Octobers quarterly figure by -0.5%.  Listings down -10%, Prices just 0.9% above 2018 July 2018 with the CV19 recession still to come.

By area:

Channel Islands...Nothing ever really sells there :lol:

East Mids

Down -3.58% on last month, down -0.8% on October

East of England:

Down -3.42% on last month, down -1.92 % on October

London

Down -1.48% on last month, down -1.13 % on October.  Number listings 4% on October ( the lost of all regions ).  

London house prices now down -7.23% since April !!!!

North East 

Down -2.98 on last month, down -0.08 % on October

North West 

Down -1.47 on last month, up 0.8% on October 😞

Scotland

Down -1.35 on last month, down -3.13 % on October

South East

Down -5.09 on last month, down -3.68 % on October!!!

South West

Down -3.47 on last month, down -2.95 % on October

Wales

Up 0.11 on last month, down -0.4 % on October

West Mids

Down -2.8% on last month, down -2.7% on October

Yorkshire 

Down -3.44% on last month, down -1.24% on October....LISTING VOLUMES UP 2.45

 

Good news across the board, unless you like sheep.

Not sure what happened with last month, must be some sort of weird statistical anomaly.  Listing volumes were much the same so I think the data was value.

Looks like prices are falling now the question is will that be maintained into the new year and beyond.

See you next month

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You would think Sunak would annouce an extention/change of plans before the end of the year and many chains are broken.

If an extension is going to happen then it needs to be announced soon. Probably January at the latest. This isn’t like furlough where you can extend the day before it’s due to expire.

Any last minute extension will probably throw up more negative PR than positive, given it’ll be obvious if you’re not going to make the stamp duty deadline or not and may drop the sale before April. 

I may be wrong but in the many times they’ve tinkered with stamp duty and had a cliff edge (FTB, 2nd home, new banding) I don’t recall them ever extending the deadline, even with the property VIs pleading that they should. 

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Seasonal slow down in asking prices? What did the numbers look like this time last year or, even better, 2018 when there was no election?

Edit to add: big thanks for the work too.

Previous 2 years there was a marked slow down between October and Jan followed by a small rise between Jan and April.

 

image.png.09141591ce92ca0a4fc3ed1ed839ca02.png

So yes, this is expected that's why I was so shocked at last months jump, it was well out of place.

I think we were always on for a Boris bounce this year but what happened is truly crazy.

Looking at the price band stats shows something interesting.

In most areas < £500K are seeing price drops in each price band ( < 100, 100->200K etc ) but over than not so much.  Top end average price gone up but that could be a few less expensive sales going though and the really top end stuff skewing that price range.

Still can't explain last months figures, I ran several checks and it looked legit.

Anyway, as I said in my last thread, I've resigned myself to the status quo for the duration and have given up on buying a house, but will happily continue with this index so I'll be back in Jan with the latest quarterly index, fingers crossed for a big fall and we could see London go into double digit decline !!!

My oil shares have earned enough now to cover my rent for the next decade, but hey, you can't lose on property.

 

 

 

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Previous 2 years there was a marked slow down between October and Jan followed by a small rise between Jan and April.

 

image.png.09141591ce92ca0a4fc3ed1ed839ca02.png

So yes, this is expected that's why I was so shocked at last months jump, it was well out of place.

I think we were always on for a Boris bounce this year but what happened is truly crazy.

Looking at the price band stats shows something interesting.

In most areas < £500K are seeing price drops in each price band ( < 100, 100->200K etc ) but over than not so much.  Top end average price gone up but that could be a few less expensive sales going though and the really top end stuff skewing that price range.

Still can't explain last months figures, I ran several checks and it looked legit.

Anyway, as I said in my last thread, I've resigned myself to the status quo for the duration and have given up on buying a house, but will happily continue with this index so I'll be back in Jan with the latest quarterly index, fingers crossed for a big fall and we could see London go into double digit decline !!!

My oil shares have earned enough now to cover my rent for the next decade, but hey, you can't lose on property.

 

 

 

lol.  Your oil shares.  Would you care to share your positions with us?  Also, didn't you call the top of the market a couple of months back?  

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It’s interesting that London is down overall, as since lockdown large houses with decent gardens in south London seem to have increased around 20%.

Things do seem to be slowing down though as the mad prices are sticking around and being reduced (although no great properties being listed, just average or those with some issue or other).

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They will extend the stamp duty holiday soon, if they dont then certainly will see at least 5% knocked off asking prices, or at least achieved sold prices

an extension will probably provide another boost, but they need to keep the feeling of panic buying and maybe even throw in some more treats for buyers

 

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I agree that was/is probably the plan @jiltedjen, as usual our politicians are led by the herd and their own self interests. What I have noticed from the comments on mainstream media sites in relation to the constant housing market support is that for the wider population (or those that post on the internet at least) the penny seems to have dropped that this isn't a good thing. If the political elite are paying attention that may yet change the direction of travel ...

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If an extension is going to happen then it needs to be announced soon. Probably January at the latest. This isn’t like furlough where you can extend the day before it’s due to expire.

I just have to step back from that for a second. Peoples jobs and lives can be messed up with 24 hours to spare but a bit of tax on an asset must have 3 months notice. The sad thing is that you are probably correct as are the priorities of the government.

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lol.  Your oil shares.  Would you care to share your positions with us?  Also, didn't you call the top of the market a couple of months back?  

Yup you're right - a couple of months back he had made 20k in oil shares alone, and was saying that summer 2020 was the peak of the market, all downhill from here. He's not going to share anything with you as it would ruin the fantasy life he leads on here. 

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Just in case you missed it at the weekend.

London is falling and mortgage rates are increasing. 

Nothing else matters.

 

Hi Count, could you elaborate please? Some other posters said the 5-10% LTV are in the pipeline and easier to get hold of. #confused.

Edited by househunter123
Clarification
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Yup you're right - a couple of months back he had made 20k in oil shares alone, and was saying that summer 2020 was the peak of the market, all downhill from here. He's not going to share anything with you as it would ruin the fantasy life he leads on here. 

It would be amusing apart from the fact that people may take this guys "insight" seriously, delaying purchasing for years, which may ultimately mean they're priced out of the market.

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Just in case you missed it at the weekend.

London is falling and mortgage rates are increasing. 

Nothing else matters.

 

Agree.  It's what I am seeing and usually everywhere else follows.  The main difference this time is Londoners moving out.  Even if prices are falling, they remain astronomical and the savings by moving are enormous regardless.

 

It would be a shame if the London rush out of town skewed everything outside over the longer-term.  If so, it would be highly ironic.

 

The one thing we do know is that no one can accurately predict the market as there are too many factors to consider. However, just like 1989 and 2009, it is fair to argue a correction is on its way.  How deep it will be is another story but I'm ready to take advantage if it suits.  Happy to live with higher IR and a lower principle sum. 

In the meantime, I'll keep on with some cash savings.  Not gonna get rich on PB but they do give me a little thrill. This month  I won £50 and £75 last month. At least this makes up for 0.01 IR or whatever it is! 

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In the meantime, I'll keep on with some cash savings.  Not gonna get rich on PB but they do give me a little thrill. This month  I won £50 and £75 last month. At least this makes up for 0.01 IR or whatever it is! 

You jammy bugger... I'm almost max'd out and won nothing this month, £25 last month, and nothing in Oct! 

Pre Oct I was 'winning' average £50 per month. 

Edit: I meant to say, I've just about lost my faith in a correction - a faith that had been there for over a decade. What we've seen this year beggars belief, and I now find it beyond depressing. 

Edited by Orb
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You jammy bugger... I'm almost max'd out and won nothing this month, £25 last month, and nothing in Oct! 

Pre Oct I was 'winning' average £50 per month. 

Edit: I meant to say, I've just about lost my faith in a correction - a faith that had been there for over a decade. What we've seen this year beggars belief, and I now find it beyond depressing. 

A jammy bugger that I am! 😁 💯 I'm near the max and have only invested since October, I'm clearly on a winning streak.  Maybe the drop you've had was pre-programmed  I don't trust these 'algorithms'...We'll see if it lasts.

I'd be disappointed if London was on the bounce, and I can assure everyone that it IS NOT.  Saw a house today (south London) - tempting but not tempting enough and the lowest asking price for the road in about 4 years.  Landlord selling up. May as well hold a a little longer to sense where this market is going.  I predict, DOWN.

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