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The next Cygne Noir (Black Swan)


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Ok, so I am sensing that most people feel the corona armageddon is over (except for our masky friends).

So given that the Repo Market Crisis was completely unnoticed and loads of money is keeping investors afloat, where do people the next crisis or black swan may come from?

COVID-24 ( Pete is looking forward to that already)

Total internet SNAFU/Cloud Out, no communications for weeks 

World War 3

Negative interest rate associated events

Currency Meltdown

Run on of property/retail collapse.

 

 

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Trump nuking someone or leaving a spiteful time bomb lurking

bond crisis ( all cinemas closed so we don't get to see the next film )

prolonged second wave / third wave

Boris not getting the boot

kfc running out of chicken

Edited by Patfig
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UK facing risk of 'systemic economic crisis', official paper says

Exclusive: Cabinet Office briefing seen by Guardian warns that Brexit, Covid, flu, flooding and unrest could lead to chaos

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Funny you mention this. TPTB preparing us for this?

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UK facing risk of 'systemic economic crisis', official paper says

Exclusive: Cabinet Office briefing seen by Guardian warns that Brexit, Covid, flu, flooding and unrest could lead to chaos

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Funny you mention this. TPTB preparing us for this?

Nice find, only published 30 minutes before I started this thread....but I hadn't seen it. 

Perhaps on the B world, we may even exceed the worst case scenarios!!! 

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All joking aside no deal Brexit will send companies under and send people into a no spending mindset.  Even with a deal the end of Furlough will do the same, we may end up with both.  

I'm starting to think that no deal is more likely now considering where almost 5.5 weeks away from the end of the transition period.

I think the next black Swan event will be related to climate change somehow, maybe it will be a refugee crises or famine and food shortages. These events will be all the more common in the next few decades.

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All joking aside no deal Brexit will send companies under and send people into a no spending mindset.  Even with a deal the end of Furlough will do the same, we may end up with both.  

no deal brexit will decrease the economy by 5% not the end of the world.

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I don't know, although controlling the pandemic is in sight, it still seems like we're not going to see the full economic effects until next year. I wouldn't be surprised if there's one further full lockdown, compounded with the effects of Brexit and then the end of the furlough scheme.

A bit like 2007 maybe, with the current situation only half played-out?

 

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no deal brexit will decrease the economy by 5% not the end of the world.

Brexit doubles the COVID impact in my opinion. 

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Think next year is going to be pretty brutal just by itself due to the building fall-out of corona

i think probably something political will be the following black-swan

the 'have nots' in society are young and gaining in numbers pretty rapidly, while those who control the votes are in the 'have lots' camp, which to me seems like it could cause a lot of unrest, increasing crime etc 

also the young and now starting to no-longer be on the fringe with 'boomers did it' that's becoming a mainstream opinion, that will in turn eventually turn into a strong supported political movement looking to address the unfairness of that age group. 

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World War 3

Negative interest rate associated events

Currency Meltdown

Run on of property/retail collapse.

An untreatable strain of the bubonic plague

Nuclear attack by China

The earth is attacked space aliens

An asteroid the size of the moon hits planet earth

The sun explodes

North Korea nuclear attack

A biblical scale flood

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Ok, so I am sensing that most people feel the corona armageddon is over (except for our masky friends).

If by "over" you mean "half way through but at least there's an end in sight" then I agree.

Masks or no masks is an irrelevant distraction - the economy is going to be hobbled for at least all of 2021.

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If by "over" you mean "half way through but at least there's an end in sight" then I agree.

Masks or no masks is an irrelevant distraction - the economy is going to be hobbled for at least all of 2021.

+100 the damage is still being done

'rebuild better' is the moto, maybe return to growth 2022? this whole event has delayed the stock market blow off top to until 2029  

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Think next year is going to be pretty brutal just by itself due to the building fall-out of corona

i think probably something political will be the following black-swan

the 'have nots' in society are young and gaining in numbers pretty rapidly, while those who control the votes are in the 'have lots' camp, which to me seems like it could cause a lot of unrest, increasing crime etc 

also the young and now starting to no-longer be on the fringe with 'boomers did it' that's becoming a mainstream opinion, that will in turn eventually turn into a strong supported political movement looking to address the unfairness of that age group. 

Nah.. The rhetoric of the beneficiary have nots will be: We f^ck the boomers, we don't get our inheritance. 

Edited by Money Frugality
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+100 the damage is still being done

'rebuild better' is the moto, maybe return to growth 2022? this whole event has delayed the stock market blow off top to until 2029  

Already put the note in my diary, from late 2027 onward!!!

I manage to profit handsomely from the printy printy this time round, but who knows, may be the next one will be more Great Depression style with tight monetary policy instead- that said, I doubt it, unless we get Weimar level inflation between now and then!

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The question is self refuting: 

It ain't a black Swan if you can see it coming. 

If I had to guess at a big something that's not being much considered, I'd go for ...

Some kind of meltdown abroad, creating shock waves here. Psychologically if not financially. (After all the whole pack of cards is only being held up by blind optimism, isn't it?)

Even biden having a heart attack would probably do it. 

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