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Where have all the houses gone? Supply crash.


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Have noticed a huge crash in supply over the last few weeks... anecdotally I know people who had bought and the vendors have delayed until "after the vaccine". What peculiar times we are living through. Anyone else noticed supply falling off a cliff in places they are looking? 

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In my area I would say flats outnumber houses 5 to 1.   Decent houses seem to be selling in days, we are talking in the £700K to £1.5 million range.   Flats do not seem to be selling and asking prices have definitely fallen a fair way.

I looked at buying a flat in 2016 and asking prices in the same block are lower than they were back then.  

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Market is in complete stasis. Majority of property is stuck SSTC at the moment. Looking at Rightmove in my immediate search area (SW London/Zone 6) I see the following:

 - Number of houses (3+ beds) currently for sale = 124

 - Number of houses Under Offer/SSTC = 242

Using Home.co.uk stats in the same postcode:

 - Number of houses sold (on land registry) since June: 6

To give some anecdotal context on that SSTC stuff we have 2 friends looking to move in the area, 1 has had offer accepted on their chosen house and has accepted an offer on theirs, found out at the weekend that there are problems at the bottom of the chain and will find out this week if all is going to collapse (buyers of house below them).

The others have already had one failed chain due to someone pulling plug last minute (COVID concerns were first stated, my mate has since heard they were made redundant) and they've just gone SSTC again and are in early stages of valuations etc.

So all this flannel about mini housing boom post-lockdown has led to houses being sold.

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Market is in complete stasis. Majority of property is stuck SSTC at the moment. Looking at Rightmove in my immediate search area (SW London/Zone 6) I see the following:

 - Number of houses (3+ beds) currently for sale = 124

 - Number of houses Under Offer/SSTC = 242

Using Home.co.uk stats in the same postcode:

 - Number of houses sold (on land registry) since June: 6

To give some anecdotal context on that SSTC stuff we have 2 friends looking to move in the area, 1 has had offer accepted on their chosen house and has accepted an offer on theirs, found out at the weekend that there are problems at the bottom of the chain and will find out this week if all is going to collapse (buyers of house below them).

The others have already had one failed chain due to someone pulling plug last minute (COVID concerns were first stated, my mate has since heard they were made redundant) and they've just gone SSTC again and are in early stages of valuations etc.

So all this flannel about mini housing boom post-lockdown has led to houses being sold.

It like that around here.

All decent and semi decent 4 beds sstc 

completions on the reg since July less than 10 and most of them from pre lockdown.  Not one has taken the sold sign down (if it had one) from what I can see.

I always burns itself out around here price shoot up and then it goes dead unless gov steps in.

 

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Market is in complete stasis. Majority of property is stuck SSTC at the moment. Looking at Rightmove in my immediate search area (SW London/Zone 6) I see the following:

 - Number of houses (3+ beds) currently for sale = 124

 - Number of houses Under Offer/SSTC = 242

Using Home.co.uk stats in the same postcode:

 - Number of houses sold (on land registry) since June: 6

To give some anecdotal context on that SSTC stuff we have 2 friends looking to move in the area, 1 has had offer accepted on their chosen house and has accepted an offer on theirs, found out at the weekend that there are problems at the bottom of the chain and will find out this week if all is going to collapse (buyers of house below them).

The others have already had one failed chain due to someone pulling plug last minute (COVID concerns were first stated, my mate has since heard they were made redundant) and they've just gone SSTC again and are in early stages of valuations etc.

So all this flannel about mini housing boom post-lockdown has led to houses being sold.

There have been more than 6 houses sold on my London street alone since June, so you either live in the middle of nowhere or have a search area the size of a hula hoop. 

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My search is all houses over £800k from Clapham to Charlton in south London. Hardly anything coming to market, especially in the last week. All that comes on is mediocre and not much is moving presumably because of that.

Interestingly I’m seeing very few come back to market, but quite a few now being taken off the market. I suppose people think the market will pick up again in spring. 
 

I would like to think prices will be lower then due to the impacts of job losses and so on being felt. However it seems more likely that once mortgage applications reduce, lenders will reduce rates again and offer higher LTV products and prices will continue up up and up!

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There have been more than 6 houses sold on my London street alone since June, so you either live in the middle of nowhere or have a search area the size of a hula hoop. 

As you can see there are hundreds of houses included in the search area, it’s on first 3 digits of postcode so decent sized area.

Sorry if these numbers don’t support your agenda.

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People don't tend to buy over Xmas and I do concur with other comments here stating that people are waiting for the spring in belief that everything will be back to normal.

Whilst I do think things will be better by Easter, I don't think the damage to the economy will be easily repaired. Once the government help stops, we are going to be in a much worse position.

I think we are already seeing some effects on flat prices but whether this translates to house prices is anyones guess atm.

Where I'm looking to buy in London there are a few under offer but overall I am seeing reductions in flat prices fairly regularly. 

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As you can see there are hundreds of houses included in the search area, it’s on first 3 digits of postcode so decent sized area.

Sorry if these numbers don’t support your agenda.

What agenda is that? Using a land registry search for the KT2 postcode if I’m going to guess roughly where you mean, it brings back 74 sold properties since June 1st. Infact, going from KT1 to KT5 which is where I got bored, the lowest number of sold properties is 32. 

 

Why does anyone disagreeing with the assertion that everything has gone to crap have an agenda? Why on earth would I be posting to 50 people on here if I did!? Keep up the pointless anecdotes though - read similar for literally decades and precisely naff all had happened.  

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I’ve noticed this as well in Scotland. Beyond Edinburgh when I’m now confident prices have dropped 5-10% in the last year months, you can punch in any other town and find zero new listings. 
 

In fact I’m sticking in places like Perth with a 10 mile radius just to find 2 or 3 new listings a day! 

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My mum's house sale fell through again (problems on the bottom end of the chain, which the purchaser neglected to mention for weeks after the contract were meant to exchange) in Greater London. Huge family home with a large garden backing onto woodland. 

Now under offer from an (alleged) cash buyer.  

The market is absolutely tepid, even for what you would think are prime houses.

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I can't see prices shifting up or down unless the cost of borrowing changes (interest rates), or somehow forebarence comes to an end and reposessions start. Seems unlikely with the help-to-to-stay-in-you-job scheme and global interest rates creeping into negative teritory.

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I can't see prices shifting up or down unless the cost of borrowing changes (interest rates), or somehow forebarence comes to an end and reposessions start. Seems unlikely with the help-to-to-stay-in-you-job scheme and global interest rates creeping into negative teritory.

This misses the disruption on so many levels of the economy... the above is a sticking plaster... it may take years to move beyond the disruption... not a few months. Why do so few fail to grasp this? 

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Have noticed a huge crash in supply over the last few weeks... anecdotally I know people who had bought and the vendors have delayed until "after the vaccine". What peculiar times we are living through. Anyone else noticed supply falling off a cliff in places they are looking? 

In our North York’s town we are still seeing listings. Average is about 15 normally and yesterday was 19. 

Definate pattern emerging where ‘empties’ are listed at 2018/9 prices and newly decorated blinged houses are 15% more in price. In July the blinged ones were selling but now they are sticking. Interestingly as ever the plain empties that need decorating, carpets and maybe a kitchen are sticking too....but in this town that happens because many assume carpets, decorating and kitchen is a £50k deal. 

Have seen around 25 relisted last week that had ‘sold’ in August...that is relative high. 

I am a real bear in this market but with the dark nights and rain v’s summer sunshine and pent up demand it is too premature to say things are definitely cooling just yet from and underlying trend viewpoint.  

However summer time fizz has gone and those relisting won’t feel great having to start again now. 

It’s the next 8/12 weeks that will help gauge sentiment in this new age of post vaccine sentiment...still jobs to be lost. 

Edited by Pop321
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Next year will be very unpredictable. We could see a reset in terms of prices... aka a crash. A high possibility imo but will need to be patient. If we do see a crash it will be in the third quarter next year imo. 

Meanwhile the "market" is barely functioning right now. 

Edited by gruffydd
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