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Rightmove - first fall in four months. Is this it?


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https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/rightmove-records-first-house-price-fall-in-four-months/5108998.article

 

Property portal says price dipped 0.5% in the last month, despite continued strong demand

House prices dipped in October, according to the latest monthly index from online property portal Rightmove.

The fall in asking prices of 0.5% is the first seen since July. Rightmove said it came despite continued strong demand from buyers for homes, with the number of sales agreed in the month 50% up on the same time month in 2019.

for sale

Rightmove blamed the decline on a rush of sellers bringing properties on to the market in a bid to meet the deadline for chancellor Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday, due to expire in March 2021.

However, the fall comes amid increasing speculation as to how long the mini-boom in prices seen since the post-lockdown resumption in the housing market can continue.

Last week the Halifax said the last four months had seen a hike in prices of 5.3%, the biggest since 2006, but cautioned that the run was unlikely to continue.

Despite the month-on-month fall recorded by Rightmove, the firm said average asking prices were now 6.3% up on the same point in 2019, at £322,025.

Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s director of property data, said the dip was likely the result of “new sellers pricing more realistically to have a better chance of agreeing a sale in time to benefit from the stamp duty savings on their onward purchase.”

Rightmove said the strongest growth in market activity was in more expensive properties, where the stamp duty savings are largest. The south of the UK outside London saw the biggest boost to the number of sales agreed in October, with sales agreed more than 60% above 2019 levels in the South west, South east and East of England.

Estate agents are already warning that a log-jam in processing house sales is likely to cause some to miss out on expected stamp duty savings. The expiry of the stamp duty holiday on March 31, alongside the onset of a second wave of covid-19 and an expected economic downturn has prompted increasing pessimism over house price growth in 2021.

Russell Galley, managing director at the Halifax, said last week that “With a number of clear headwinds facing the housing market, we expect to see greater downward pressure on house prices as we move into 2021.”

 

@TheCountOfNowhere

@Pop321 @Sausage @adarmo 

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It's ok. It's only due to the stamp duty holiday.

Nothing to do with the economy being shattered

Nothing to do with banks getting nervous to lend out stupid amounts

Nothing to do with levering BTL scum lords

 

...just extend and pretend, innit?

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8952055/Property-market-panic-lenders-slash-thousands-pounds-value-homes.html

Property market panic as lenders slash thousands from value of homes, sparking fears buyers will pull out P 

(Possibly worthy of it's own thread)

Worthy of its own thread indeed as this issues, I suspect, is not going away !

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https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/rightmove-records-first-house-price-fall-in-four-months/5108998.article

 

Property portal says price dipped 0.5% in the last month, despite continued strong demand

House prices dipped in October, according to the latest monthly index from online property portal Rightmove.

The fall in asking prices of 0.5% is the first seen since July. Rightmove said it came despite continued strong demand from buyers for homes, with the number of sales agreed in the month 50% up on the same time month in 2019.

for sale

Rightmove blamed the decline on a rush of sellers bringing properties on to the market in a bid to meet the deadline for chancellor Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday, due to expire in March 2021.

However, the fall comes amid increasing speculation as to how long the mini-boom in prices seen since the post-lockdown resumption in the housing market can continue.

Last week the Halifax said the last four months had seen a hike in prices of 5.3%, the biggest since 2006, but cautioned that the run was unlikely to continue.

Despite the month-on-month fall recorded by Rightmove, the firm said average asking prices were now 6.3% up on the same point in 2019, at £322,025.

Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s director of property data, said the dip was likely the result of “new sellers pricing more realistically to have a better chance of agreeing a sale in time to benefit from the stamp duty savings on their onward purchase.”

Rightmove said the strongest growth in market activity was in more expensive properties, where the stamp duty savings are largest. The south of the UK outside London saw the biggest boost to the number of sales agreed in October, with sales agreed more than 60% above 2019 levels in the South west, South east and East of England.

Estate agents are already warning that a log-jam in processing house sales is likely to cause some to miss out on expected stamp duty savings. The expiry of the stamp duty holiday on March 31, alongside the onset of a second wave of covid-19 and an expected economic downturn has prompted increasing pessimism over house price growth in 2021.

Russell Galley, managing director at the Halifax, said last week that “With a number of clear headwinds facing the housing market, we expect to see greater downward pressure on house prices as we move into 2021.”

 

@TheCountOfNowhere

@Pop321 @Sausage @adarmo 

Im surprised at this because UK property lion shows a massive surge in asking prices.

Most peculiar.

 

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Im surprised at this because UK property lion shows a massive surge in asking prices.

Most peculiar.

 

Interesting - Does UK property lion just look at new listings and not reductions, and does Rightmove take into account reductions?

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Sadly just that time of the year in a non-seasonally adjusted index ... review previous falls in November here: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?week=nov15.2020 ... every year Nov and Dec are falls. In fact the fall of 0.5 this Nov is actually lower than every year I can be bothered to check against. Depressing.

The property Lion Index has been running 2 and a half years and it picked up the previous autumn dips.

But this time, prices in pretty much every area were up 2%+ in a month.

If they dont seasonally adjust it then that's one massive divergence from what I saw.

 

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Rightmove is new listings only

That is a fair point but since PL ran at the start of Oct and Nov, if the new listings were down you'd expect the PL index to fall too, esp with the number of current listings also falling.

As I said....weird.

I'll run the PL index at the start of Dec again and see where we are at

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Sadly just that time of the year in a non-seasonally adjusted index ... review previous falls in November here: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?week=nov15.2020 ... every year Nov and Dec are falls. In fact the fall of 0.5 this Nov is actually lower than every year I can be bothered to check against. Depressing.

Thank you for the link.

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Where I live completion prices were estimated down MOM by LSL Acadata based partly on LR data. But that was the exception.

 What's different this year is we have seen an explosion of transactions for two reasons: 1) suppressed transactions because of the first lockdown could take place when it was lifted ("pent up" transactions) and 2) transactions brought forward to cash in on the stamp duty holiday (perceived cashing in for buyers, as it becomes transfer from the government to the seller via higher prices; sellers are cashing in). 

As Larry Elliot pointed out in the Graudiad, 2) implies fewer transactions going forwards for a while.

These factors concern total transaction volume, since both factors affect buyers and sellers, they don't in themselves imply a new balance of those looking to sell compared to those looking to buy. Less transactions however means tougher macroeconomic conditions with less money being created as mortgage credit. Also, enter Brexit, which will impact sentiment, and wage incomes / unemployment. Can we really see the price increases continuing?

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In my RM search area, I've found my first -ve equity sale.   House bought for £292K, 2 years ago, now on sale for £290K.  Looks like a rental (magnolia walls etc).

Yes it's only a 2K drop, but it's the first time I've seen this with the big EA chains here.

 

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What's different this year is we have seen an explosion of transactions for two reasons: 1) suppressed transactions because of the first lockdown could take place when it was lifted ("pent up" transactions) and 2) transactions brought forward to cash in on the stamp duty holiday.

Also, enter Brexit, which will impact sentiment, and wage incomes / unemployment. Can we really see the price increases continuing?

I can't see prices increasing or even flat lining. The "boom" is an outlier as you point out. When have house prices ever not dropped in the UK when the economy shrinks significantly?

I also agree about Brexit and sentiment. The sky might not fall in but there will be lots of people on the news next year attributing lower turnover or higher redundancies to it.

And then there's the pandemic. A few weeks ago, the Guardian had a good article from a Public Health expert on why a vaccine would not be a magic bullet: there would not be perfect distribution, storage, take up rates, % efficacy, etc.

It's, to use Chris Patten's phrase during the 1992 election, a double whammy.

 

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In my RM search area, I've found my first -ve equity sale.   House bought for £292K, 2 years ago, now on sale for £290K.  Looks like a rental (magnolia walls etc).

Yes it's only a 2K drop, but it's the first time I've seen this with the big EA chains here.

 

Interesting and I don’t doubt your comments at all.

However I live in a very desirable town where price “NEVER fall” 😉 and the market has been strong. Over the last few years I have found many examples of houses selling for less than they were bought for with one I spotted yesterday which was a new build £525k coming through as resold for £450k. They are very much the exception with many more examples of crazy increases....but I am surprised you don’t see this in your area. 

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Rightmove is new listings only

 

 

That is a fair point but since PL ran at the start of Oct and Nov, if the new listings were down you'd expect the PL index to fall too, esp with the number of current listings also falling.

As I said....weird.

I'll run the PL index at the start of Dec again and see where we are at

Bit confused.

Are we saying new listing remain optimistically strong but overall prices are falling? 

If so that would be ‘understandable’ data ie list high hoping for a stamp duty bonus....but if it doesn’t sell within 3/4 weeks drop to comparables.  

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https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/rightmove-records-first-house-price-fall-in-four-months/5108998.article

 

Property portal says price dipped 0.5% in the last month, despite continued strong demand

House prices dipped in October, according to the latest monthly index from online property portal Rightmove.

The fall in asking prices of 0.5% is the first seen since July. Rightmove said it came despite continued strong demand from buyers for homes, with the number of sales agreed in the month 50% up on the same time month in 2019.

for sale

Rightmove blamed the decline on a rush of sellers bringing properties on to the market in a bid to meet the deadline for chancellor Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday, due to expire in March 2021.

However, the fall comes amid increasing speculation as to how long the mini-boom in prices seen since the post-lockdown resumption in the housing market can continue.

Last week the Halifax said the last four months had seen a hike in prices of 5.3%, the biggest since 2006, but cautioned that the run was unlikely to continue.

Despite the month-on-month fall recorded by Rightmove, the firm said average asking prices were now 6.3% up on the same point in 2019, at £322,025.

Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s director of property data, said the dip was likely the result of “new sellers pricing more realistically to have a better chance of agreeing a sale in time to benefit from the stamp duty savings on their onward purchase.”

Rightmove said the strongest growth in market activity was in more expensive properties, where the stamp duty savings are largest. The south of the UK outside London saw the biggest boost to the number of sales agreed in October, with sales agreed more than 60% above 2019 levels in the South west, South east and East of England.

Estate agents are already warning that a log-jam in processing house sales is likely to cause some to miss out on expected stamp duty savings. The expiry of the stamp duty holiday on March 31, alongside the onset of a second wave of covid-19 and an expected economic downturn has prompted increasing pessimism over house price growth in 2021.

Russell Galley, managing director at the Halifax, said last week that “With a number of clear headwinds facing the housing market, we expect to see greater downward pressure on house prices as we move into 2021.”

 

@TheCountOfNowhere

@Pop321 @Sausage @adarmo 

I am not sure yet whether we will see a ‘crash’ because of printy printy or just the wind dropping out of the market.

Infact the more my son is looking v’s this forum the more I realise just how regional ‘house price issues’ are. Without much of a correction in our town we could be at 2003/4 prices again allowing for inflation with some 2016/7 prices paid looking decidedly expensive already. Don’t get me wrong some will still pay new highs eg £280k for a house worth £230k just because of colour schemes and light fittings...whereas in 2003 they were much less, so the upper extremes have definitely increased. 

Either way (crash or wind removed) I expect those who want to buy may find some much better value next year and this initial drop will just be the start. 

Ps I am not convinced about this ‘log jam’ of property transactions. My experience suggests 5/6 weeks is more than enough time to buy if you get on with everything at day one. Ie valued in week one then full steam ahead of everything in week 2.  I think it’s part of the positioning so they can ask for an SDLT extension. 

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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