adarmo Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1. Wait till February is not a big ask. 2. Prices for first time buyers won't be inflated by stamp duty holiday. 3. Buying in mid winter is generally better. (4. Is sausage actually renting? ) You'll be telling them to wait in February too. FTB don't pay SDLT anyway ut there is some market disturbance - what if they extend the holiday or make a permanent change though? No, actually January to March is the second busiest period for property sales I believe Sausage did say they were. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1. Wait till February is not a big ask. 2. Prices for first time buyers won't be inflated by stamp duty holiday. 3. Buying in mid winter is generally better. (4. Is sausage actually renting? ) I tried to convince my sisters to hold off buying in 2007 and the very peak of the bubble, in both cases the houses are still not back to what they originally paid. All I am saying is prices now are a concern and it’s no fun being in negative equity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adarmo Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 It’s up to you to make your own decisions. Some of us can wait to buy the dips, and already have property, and I think there is one large shock coming. Unemployment is rising in many areas, pilots being an example. Businesses of all kinds are doing to the wall. There will be another six months of serious disruption even without Brexit coming down the pipe. But not based on evidence, you just think another shock is coming? Like a bigger one than Brexit and Covid? What have prices done since the referendum? Any more bad news and they'll be posting cash to people's houses. I almost fear good news tbh! Most businesses that are failing are hobby high street and other stuff directly impacted by zero footfall. Gyms, restaurants, bars, etc. We all dream of keeping our well paid job while everyone else loses their's and it's a property fire sale but that just ain't gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 But not based on evidence, you just think another shock is coming? Like a bigger one than Brexit and Covid? What have prices done since the referendum? Any more bad news and they'll be posting cash to people's houses. I almost fear good news tbh! Most businesses that are failing are hobby high street and other stuff directly impacted by zero footfall. Gyms, restaurants, bars, etc. We all dream of keeping our well paid job while everyone else loses their's and it's a property fire sale but that just ain't gonna happen. Brexit and COVID are the one big shock, they are coming together. Honestly we are sleep walking into trouble. Hopefully they can pull together a deal but then we still have COVID to deal with. I do however agree there is a potential for helicopter money which is one reason to get out of cash. I’m actually looking at commercial property as there is good value there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24gray24 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Winter slows down for property sales. It picks up with sunny days in spring. (And ends with last sunny days in autumn). Can't you even agree a 3 month delay? If not, we just have a difference of opinion. You say buy now (if the timings right). I say wait till February. Good to get a range of views... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonriver Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Winter slows down for property sales. It picks up with sunny days in spring. (And ends with last sunny days in autumn). Can't you even agree a 3 month delay? If not, we just have a difference of opinion. You say buy now (if the timings right). I say wait till February. Good to get a range of views... Interesting discussion. You say February is likely to be the best time to buy. Do you say this due to conditions this year in particular, eg brexit/covid problems likely to be affecting sentiment more by then? Or because February is usually the worst time weather wise? One thing that would make me nervous about delaying until February is the thought of the tradional spring bounce. As Adarmo says isn't February one of the most popular months to buy? (ready to move in for spring). So buyers would be competing with extra buyers? I think as we go into December might be a good time to buy due to viewing slowing, whilst people plan for Christmas? But I am undecided if we should go for it very soon or wait and see if February brings more choice in our price range due to upcoming economic problems. We do intend to buy within the next 6 months though. I know timing is just a generalised thing and everyones situation is different, eg. in Sausage's positon (landlord selling), it could prove very stressful to delay now they have found a suitable home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24gray24 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Interesting discussion. You say February is likely to be the best time to buy. Do you say this due to conditions this year in particular, eg brexit/covid problems likely to be affecting sentiment more by then? Or because February is usually the worst time weather wise? One thing that would make me nervous about delaying until February is the thought of the tradional spring bounce. As Adarmo says isn't February one of the most popular months to buy? (ready to move in for spring). So buyers would be competing with extra buyers? I think as we go into December might be a good time to buy due to viewing slowing, whilst people plan for Christmas? But I am undecided if we should go for it very soon or wait and see if February brings more choice in our price range due to upcoming economic problems. We do intend to buy within the next 6 months though. I know timing is just a generalised thing and everyones situation is different, eg. in Sausage's positon (landlord selling), it could prove very stressful to delay now they have found a suitable home. Not particular to this year. It's really a weather issue I think. Who wants to go look at houses in the dark and rain? So spring bounce is first sunny weekend in spring. February is not popular. January is worst month of all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 I’m still looking to move as soon as a fixer upper comes up. Im confident I’ll get something 10-20% lower than historic prices, with scope to add 20-30% in value through the renovations. Im looking for a solid period home to see the kids through school and until they get their own places. To me it’s all about research. If one the area sold for 280k in 2006 and another for 310k in 2019, then I’ll have no issues paying £270/280 in 2020. Older properties in my Scottish search area are already showing that slump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user not found Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Yes I'm renting. Served notice in August although that was invalid, so if our house purchase falls through we'd get another 6 months notice. No suitable rentals have come on market in 3 months, unless we want a 10 mile round trip for school run, or move the kids to a different school. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 (edited) Yes I'm renting. Served notice in August although that was invalid, so if our house purchase falls through we'd get another 6 months notice. No suitable rentals have come on market in 3 months, unless we want a 10 mile round trip for school run, or move the kids to a different school. It depends how long you can sustain it (10 miles/time involved?) and what the pay off may be. We had a ridiculous schedule for a 9 month period as we had to drop off our bairns at two different nurseries. They had overbooked places, and we were told this at the last minute I.e. just before my return to work, having been previously offered a place! When we look back, we do so in disbelief and have no idea how we accrual managed it with jobs 'n' all, but we did. It entailed lots of juggling, v early starts and journeys during rush hour with a buggy for my husband, while I ferried the younger one by car. Stress all around! Thankfully, the children joined each other eventually. Ps I would probably do the journey rather than change schools but it depends on your circumstances. If the children are happy, I would be less inclined to do so but they do tend to settle more quickly than you may expect. Not always the case I know. We changed our children's primary school and I was very worried about doing this but they made the transition extremely well. I missed the old school 's network more than them! Edited November 15, 2020 by Buffer Bear To add the ps info! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twenty Something Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Not particular to this year. It's really a weather issue I think. Who wants to go look at houses in the dark and rain? So spring bounce is first sunny weekend in spring. February is not popular. January is worst month of all. Went and looked at many houses start of this year, and offered on our one after two viewings in the bad weather back end of January. Who cares what the weather is doing? I drove to the house and remained inside it other than having a quick walk to the bottom of the garden. I can get that the two weeks or so over xmas is a bad time for house viewings as everyone is busy etc, but I don't buy into this whole seasonal thing with house viewings. As others have intimated, what are you really going to know in a few months time? If you do get your huge crash, it is unlikely to be off a cliff but rather will take years to play out. So, say you see average house prices come down a few hundred quid between now and February, are you going to be in any better position to know where they are going in the next decade? So then as @adarmo says, what is the advice? Wait until the summer, wait a year, wait a decade? The crash isn't coming. Interest rates are going nowhere, UK GDP recovered 15.5% to Q3, mortgage holidays and other support mechanisms are here to stay, the ending of the stamp duty holiday won't impact decisions to buy, life will go on. If I am wrong, I shall sit on my low fixed interest mortgage rate and await better times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Sausage need only review the past 13 years of posts to realise this is nonsense. The time to buy is when it's right for you and they'd do well to ignore a lot of the inane advise spouted out on here. Free advice is worth nothing. Wait just one more month, one more quarter, on more year, on more decade, one more lifetime. Grab hold of your life with both hands and take control of everything in your grasp. So this advice is based on nothing than a majority of low skilled and low paid jobs being shelved (probably the majority would be back restrictions lift over the next twelve months. How does rising unemployment of people that do not own property create forced sellers? The majority of the increase in unemployment is the under 30s and even more so the under 25s. My view is negative interest rates for a short period followed by loose monetary policy for the medium term. That is versus renting from someone with all the insecurity and throwing money away it entails. Nobody on here has anything close to a good track record of timing the market. People were calling the last crash three years before it happened. I have sympathy with many of the views post 2008 since we all expected that conventional mechanisms would cause further falls. As you say, printy printy is the game changer. I won’t tell anyone to wait if they find what they want. And if it’s the first house they like since looking since 2011 then go for it. My son is looking and we find a bargain tomorrow which more than ticks the boxes then even we will buy... That’s the context but anyone encouraging people to buy this month or not hang on a few more months is balmy. Unprecedented is used far too much but I can’t remember the last pandemic and furlough scheme...this really is unprecedented. The upside of buying this month v’s the potential downside is far too risky for far too little reward. And for the record my track record of buying has been pretty good including 2008 and 2013. Grabbed life with both hands and stopped working at 50. My experience anytime of the year any year is stay away whilst there is a little flurry of activity because people overpay by £10’s of thousands. It’s laughably predictable. I guarantee that we get something for £200/£205k which is currently on the market for £240k today (or an equivalent house). The market always has a frothy period and this is one of them. We aren’t waiting ‘for a crash’ but rather a sentiment change and they are like buses... So if it saves my son 5/10 years of savings then happy we hold off, watch the ebb and flows and wait for a weak seller to leave the pack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 I’m still looking to move as soon as a fixer upper comes up. Im confident I’ll get something 10-20% lower than historic prices, with scope to add 20-30% in value through the renovations. Im looking for a solid period home to see the kids through school and until they get their own places. To me it’s all about research. If one the area sold for 280k in 2006 and another for 310k in 2019, then I’ll have no issues paying £270/280 in 2020. Older properties in my Scottish search area are already showing that slump. That’s great research and exactly what I did and am doing with my son We are in a strong area so we won’t quite get such a bargain but your rational is good. We will buy at 2003/6 prices but allowing for inflation. Ie £200k for something people paid £170k in 2005 ish. The key is that daft bandwidth. The ones we are looking at are £210k to £285k with some at the bottom end only needing £5/7k refurb albeit very very dated and dirty. We will get one for £200k but it won’t smell nice 😆 Good luck. 👍🏻 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
househunter123 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 That’s great research and exactly what I did and am doing with my son We are in a strong area so we won’t quite get such a bargain but your rational is good. We will buy at 2003/6 prices but allowing for inflation. Ie £200k for something people paid £170k in 2005 ish. The key is that daft bandwidth. The ones we are looking at are £210k to £285k with some at the bottom end only needing £5/7k refurb albeit very very dated and dirty. We will get one for £200k but it won’t smell nice 😆 Good luck. 👍🏻 Pops, always look forward to your detailed and balanced views with your experience in life. As well as everyone elses. Both sides have good points as in things could just keep on being extended in the spring and prices keep on going up. I'm in a very similar situation and looking to buy within the same price range to buy 200-220k but not much luck and I've become very indecisive. Even more so the older I get. Just saw this and in the caption, BOjo saying our house prices are "way way higher than France and Germany..." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54950012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Late to this one - but if you are cash-rich and no property, it might make sense to buy. Heaven knows what will happen to cash, and holding just that and no bricks may be risky. Not saying houses are good value... But to these are strange times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Late to this one - but if you are cash-rich and no property, it might make sense to buy. Heaven knows what will happen to cash, and holding just that and no bricks may be risky. Not saying houses are good value... But to these are strange times Absolutely. It never been a safer to buy and it’s certainly never been so easy to sell if you need cash for any reason. Rock solid world economics at the moment...employment prospects looking good and it’s not like there are any unplanned potential surprises ahead. Buy a house and if you have any cash left after that then tie it up in investments that need 12/18 months notice to access. Who needs to hold onto cash over the next few months? It’s not like there is a plague or anything similar. I am lucky I have cash, shares and property....but those who really do have large amounts of liquid cash will be doing what I am....circling, watching and waiting. The hardest part of making real money is sitting in your hands. And ps, sarcasm aside you may indeed be right....every few weeks gives us more insight. This is a precarious time and a difficult call. That’s why my son is holding fire unless a gem comes along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Pops, always look forward to your detailed and balanced views with your experience in life. As well as everyone elses. Both sides have good points as in things could just keep on being extended in the spring and prices keep on going up. I'm in a very similar situation and looking to buy within the same price range to buy 200-220k but not much luck and I've become very indecisive. Even more so the older I get. Just saw this and in the caption, BOjo saying our house prices are "way way higher than France and Germany..." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54950012 Thx. Its not easy but it definitely feels ‘a bit frothy’ at the moment which makes people quite understandably panic. And nice spot on the article Interesting BJ doesn’t see the connection between all the gov current support and high prices. To be fair he might see the connection but too many vested interests....and maybe this is an initial ‘sounding board’ that prices are too high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 All my thought processes and observations bring me to what I consider sensible decisions but sometimes the odd house comes up and breaks the mold. We are tracking prices for a smallish area and 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s 3 bed semis and a very ordinary one came on at £275k. Without ‘bear or bull’ mentality it’s comparisons are a steady £235k and it sold immediately at what I can only assume around £270k. Despite the fact better examples are for sale in the same area and indeed the same road for £240k. Not even time for a sign to go up. Faith has been restored as 2 months later I now see it back on. I guess the valuer or the buyer has decided it’s worth what’s it’s worth. Personally I think some sales will start dropping of and it will be interesting to see if it is before Christmas...or more like after Christmas as more and more data/info comes in. Backing out of a house purchase is an difficult thing to do but people have the perfect excuse (or can make something up) if they need to. 😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Absolutely. It never been a safer to buy and it’s certainly never been so easy to sell if you need cash for any reason. Rock solid world economics at the moment...employment prospects looking good and it’s not like there are any unplanned potential surprises ahead. Buy a house and if you have any cash left after that then tie it up in investments that need 12/18 months notice to access. Who needs to hold onto cash over the next few months? It’s not like there is a plague or anything similar. I am lucky I have cash, shares and property....but those who really do have large amounts of liquid cash will be doing what I am....circling, watching and waiting. The hardest part of making real money is sitting in your hands. And ps, sarcasm aside you may indeed be right....every few weeks gives us more insight. This is a precarious time and a difficult call. That’s why my son is holding fire unless a gem comes along. Sarcasm accepted But my point was that renting, and holding large cash sums, might be risky. Theres so much printed cash flooding around some B&M to live in may make sense . You have property, of course. As do I, and cash, and shares and (not nearly enough) gold. "30% cash 30%stock 30% pms" is'nt a bad amateur strategy, always supposing you have somewhere safe and paid off to live in! (I would'nt advise using spare cash to leverage an extension to ones BTL empire, tho!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Sarcasm accepted But my point was that renting, and holding large cash sums, might be risky. Theres so much printed cash flooding around some B&M to live in may make sense . You have property, of course. As do I, and cash, and shares and (not nearly enough) gold. "30% cash 30%stock 30% pms" is'nt a bad amateur strategy, always supposing you have somewhere safe and paid off to live in! (I would'nt advise using spare cash to leverage an extension to ones BTL empire, tho!) Understood. My ‘generic’ position for advice to anyone buying right now is to wait, watch and listen very carefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Understood. My ‘generic’ position for advice to anyone buying right now is to wait, watch and listen very carefully. Makes sense! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hope_Prevails Posted November 16, 2020 Author Share Posted November 16, 2020 OK, thanks for all who have posted thus far. An update: I visited the EA to show proof of funds which they are doing the checks on, apart from some errors on their part over the weekend which I have responded to they are undertaking relevant checks. When at the EA I hinted that we have the funds and are "oven ready" for a deal on a property before the stamp duty deadline. The vendors seem to be a bit vague though about their plans. I was a bit annoyed when the EA commented that I should not be thinking about making offers elsewhere as it will make the vendor lose confidence in us. I told EA we don't want to be sitting around waiting and potentially missing the stamp duty holiday. Yesterday we hand wrote and posted 9 cards in to houses in the neighbourhood asking if anyone would like to sell. We will see if we can do some more houses again tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 OK, thanks for all who have posted thus far. An update: I visited the EA to show proof of funds which they are doing the checks on, apart from some errors on their part over the weekend which I have responded to they are undertaking relevant checks. When at the EA I hinted that we have the funds and are "oven ready" for a deal on a property before the stamp duty deadline. The vendors seem to be a bit vague though about their plans. I was a bit annoyed when the EA commented that I should not be thinking about making offers elsewhere as it will make the vendor lose confidence in us. I told EA we don't want to be sitting around waiting and potentially missing the stamp duty holiday. Yesterday we hand wrote and posted 9 cards in to houses in the neighbourhood asking if anyone would like to sell. We will see if we can do some more houses again tonight. Lol. Ignore. Its a transaction right up until you exchange. If you went into a shop and the item you wanted was maybe, perhaps out the back.. it is perfectly within your rights to try down the road to see if its available elsewhere. You would be mad not to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 +1...everyone knows that the market us so grotesquely manipulated and distorted that it could collapse at any time. The only people relaxed about housing are those that acquired their house before this manipulation. i do wonder how many have released equity on future gains that may never materialise. 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
micawber Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Sarcasm accepted But my point was that renting, and holding large cash sums, might be risky. Theres so much printed cash flooding around some B&M to live in may make sense . You have property, of course. As do I, and cash, and shares and (not nearly enough) gold. "30% cash 30%stock 30% pms" is'nt a bad amateur strategy, always supposing you have somewhere safe and paid off to live in! (I would'nt advise using spare cash to leverage an extension to ones BTL empire, tho!) I recommend the Golden Butterfly portfolio. DYOR. https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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