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Is This A Beginning Of A Run On Sterling?

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With Sterling get near it's 2 year low against the dollar again, it looks like a rate cut is out of the question.

Property values are ready to free-fall. Lots of property got taken off the market last autumn and is now in the process of coming back into the market for the "spring" bounce.

The only bounce is one off the cliff. Greedy owners are going to regret not selling last year.

Sterling reaching new lows is going to be the straw that broke the camel's back.

Save your pennies and get out of debt. The time to buy is not now.

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Well its been some time coming, but i feel the great HPC of 2006 to 2011 is just starting to get rolling, it will be a long roll, it took five years to get to the top, then it will take five years to get to the bottom.

Sterling heading down

Inflation heading up

Houseprices heading down

Unemployment heading up

Brown fingers pants heading down, he must be sh#tting himself, miracle ecomy my a@rse :lol:

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Well its been some time coming, but i feel the great HPC of 2006 to 2011 is just starting to get rolling, it will be a long roll, it took five years to get to the top, then it will take five years to get to the bottom.

The problem is once it's rolling, it'll be very hard to stop. Just watch.

We'll then all have another problem. If we buy we can expect virtually instant negative equity for the next few years. Not an exciting prospect?

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Brown fingers pants heading down, he must be sh#tting himself, miracle ecomy my a@rse :lol:

Did anyone see what Brown said when his new baby was born.

He said that he could see now that there were more important things than politics and he wanted to make sure he spent more time with his family.

Yeah I bet he will too.

I expect to see that phrase about spending more time with the family coming again pretty soon

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He said that he could see now that there were more important things than politics and he wanted to make sure he spent more time with his family.

Sooner rather than later, lets get some normality back, talk about one individual who has thrown fuel onto a raging out of control fire :lol:

BTL Yep Brown to lie

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With Sterling get near it's 2 year low against the dollar again, it looks like a rate cut is out of the question.

Property values are ready to free-fall. Lots of property got taken off the market last autumn and is now in the process of coming back into the market for the "spring" bounce.

The only bounce is one off the cliff. Greedy owners are going to regret not selling last year.

Sterling reaching new lows is going to be the straw that broke the camel's back.

Save your pennies and get out of debt. The time to buy is not now.

Anyone who knew anything about currency movements would know that just prior to a BOE announcement, sterling will move up or down depending on the possibility of a rate movement. Although no movement is the widely predicted announcement, there is a possibility that it will be dropped. So sterling drops in anticipation, when a no change annoucement is made, the currency will rebound. If a drop is announced, sterling may drop a little further.

Mark my words.....

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Hmmm, does TTRTR have to teach people to suck eggs? As he said, BoE rate announcement tomorrow. A couple of other thoughts;

Inflation up - wouldn't you want to own an asset if you thought inflation was going up?

House prices down - there's no real evidence of that!

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Anyone who knew anything about currency movements would know that just prior to a BOE announcement, sterling will move up or down depending on the possibility of a rate movement. Although no movement is the widely predicted announcement, there is a possibility that it will be dropped. So sterling drops in anticipation, when a no change annoucement is made, the currency will rebound. If a drop is announced, sterling may drop a little further.

Mark my words.....

Marked.

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If a drop is announced, sterling may drop a little further.

Mark my words.....

A little further, mark my words of a VI :lol:

I have more faith in Santa Clause

Edited by Panda

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Inflation up - wouldn't you want to own an asset if you thought inflation was going up?

I thought that the CPI (the measurement of cheated inflation) had dropped for the last two months running –

Is it not just above his target of 2% but well below the 3% maximum

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Guest Bart of Darkness
there is a possibility that it will be dropped

More chance of finding Elvis on the moon mate.

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Anyone who knew anything about currency movements would know that just prior to a BOE announcement, sterling will move up or down depending on the possibility of a rate movement. Although no movement is the widely predicted announcement, there is a possibility that it will be dropped. So sterling drops in anticipation, when a no change annoucement is made, the currency will rebound. If a drop is announced, sterling may drop a little further.

Mark my words.....

TTRTR I can tell you that the market has priced a HOLD. All economists interviewed agreed with this, i.e. this month it's a done deal.

If the BoE were to drop IRs stirling would fall. Conversely, if IRs were to rise £ would rise. If they stay the same, I'd guess the £ may rise a little.

The question now is over the next IR movement, not this month's. Economists are divided over when and whether it will go up or down. Both are possibilities depending on how quickly fossil fuel prices are absorbed into CPI. At present, I'd guess that a falling £ against both USD and asian currencies will be inflationary. However, there may be short term issues with GDP growth. I don't see how they can be addressed with interest rate movements at this time.

My feeling is that the BoE are playing a waiting game. They know that they can't drop and risk inflation getting out of control. However, they need to see an uptrend in CPI before they move up. As soon as we see an up trend in CPI the £ will rally and IR futures will go mad.

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Guest muttley

I thought that the CPI (the measurement of cheated inflation) had dropped for the last two months running –

Is it not just above his target of 2% but well below the 3% maximum

The 2-3% inflation target is meant to be for 2 years from now.If economic conditions were to deterioate suddenly,say by the collapse of sterling,the BoE would be forced to act now.

It's worth noting that the range of 2-3% is just that....a range.The 3% is not a ceiling so the BoE could still keep rates on hold even if inflation were to break through the 3% barrier.

Don't forget,they were raising rates in 2004 even when inflation was running below 2%.

Did I just sound like zorn? :unsure:

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Anyone who knew anything about currency movements would know that just prior to a BOE announcement...

I thought the currency movement was due mainly to interest rates in the US, after all, the dollar has strengthened against the pound, euro, swedish krona, swiss franc, etc...

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Twice in the last few months Cable has threatened to 'tank'. The last time just after Christmas when the rate dropped to $1.71 before rallying strongly to $1.79.

I wonder if this time it really is a start of a run on Cable or just another 'blip?

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Anyone who believes inflation is running at 2% is living in Albert Square (fiction).

Look for coming strikes, especially in government jobs where pay raises are pegged to this mickey mouse inflation number.

Pound sinking lower against the dollar just makes the matter worse.

Everything is lining up nicely for one heck of crash in house prices. The problem with a crash in house prices, is no-one will want to buy one.

Anyone remember '91... yep, yes siree, no-one will want to buy.

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Twice in the last few months Cable has threatened to 'tank'. The last time just after Christmas when the rate dropped to $1.71 before rallying strongly to $1.79.

I wonder if this time it really is a start of a run on Cable or just another 'blip?

Well that depends on what the BoE do.

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Yeah, it's all going tits up. Sterling has fallen from $1.78 to $1.74 in the last week, which is a big move by forex standards. Soon it'll be "I remember the days when a quid would buy you nearly 2 dollars" whenever I talk to anyone embarking on a trip stateside.

Stormclouds are gathering slowly. Watch the s*** REALLY hit the fan a few years down the line when the UK stops becoming a net exporter of oil and becomes a net IMPORTER with oil at $100pb. :blink:

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the main reason for the fall of the £ in the last week is strong economic news in the US leading many to believe there may be additional rate rises to come - the market has merely priced these in (all currencies lost ground) - interestingly, $ lost ground against the Yen on an indication that Japanese interest rates may finally start to rise (or exist at all!!!)

watch for the voting pattern 2mrw - if anyone other than that leftie loony votes for a cut then £ may well fall - if we go 9-0 then expect a rise - my personal bet is £ will rise but I have a close stop just under 17400

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watch for the voting pattern 2mrw - if anyone other than that leftie loony votes for a cut then £ may well fall - if we go 9-0 then expect a rise - my personal bet is £ will rise but I have a close stop just under 17400

But we don't find out who voted what until he minutes are released. . . . or do you think the markets have insider info?

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But we don't find out who voted what until he minutes are released. . . . or do you think the markets have insider info?

very good point - i certainly don't have any insider info (or i'd be rich) but the markets do seem to know (dodgy piping) and any commentry that comes with the decision

Edited by the end is nigh

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the market is always the best guess of future intrest rates, is called the rational expectations model, many people in the market will be using the same models as the BoE and possibly even better/more advanced models to predict future inflation, growth and monetary policy.

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the market is always the best guess of future intrest rates, is called the rational expectations model, many people in the market will be using the same models as the BoE and possibly even better/more advanced models to predict future inflation, growth and monetary policy.

Jonjo. I take your point. The derivative markets are also subject to speculation etc. so one has to be careful at taking them face value and I doubt you can get clear predictions from anyone without 'inside' information. Also, economic models are not very good and particularly on periods > 1 month.

Anyhow, IR futures are saying no change till the end of 2006.

You may want to refer to my previous post where I referred to direct comments from an MPC member a few months ago. They seem to have been about right:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...c%20member&st=0

Edited by karhu

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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