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Casual Observer

What A Spin!

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I left home this morning in a good mood, having read the bearish BBC item in the HPC blog (re. 2% falls in last quarter)

I picked up a discarded Daily Mail on the tube (honest - I didn't buy it :ph34r: ) and couldn't believe their report on it. Talk of new booms, and million pound sale records, and not a hint of reductions.

I've never seen such a different set of slants on the same story!

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Am I being thick? The BBC report (oddly bearish) says Land Registry 2% fall in LAST 3 MONTHS OF 2005. Whereas, the next thing in the blog says "IFAONline says Land Registry 4.6% RISE IN LAST 3 MONTHS 2005"

Have I missed something?

The blog title summary bears no relation to the actual article (which clearly states there was a fall in the last quarter). Either a simple error, or a devious misrepresentation - you choose.

Cheers

LL

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Guest The_Oldie

Julia Caesar has just reported on BBC News 24 that Land Registry figures show that the property market picked up in the last three months of 2005, based on number of completed sales. She repeated it in case anyone missed it and stressed that it was good news :rolleyes:.

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The blog title summary bears no relation to the actual article (which clearly states there was a fall in the last quarter). Either a simple error, or a devious misrepresentation - you choose.

Cheers

LL

The last quarter of 2005 was up compared to the last quarter of 2004. However the last quarter of 2005 was down compared to the quarter before it (Q3, 2005). A very crafty bit of reporting, intended to disguise the falls.

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The last quarter of 2005 was up compared to the last quarter of 2004. However the last quarter of 2005 was down compared to the quarter before it (Q3, 2005). A very crafty bit of reporting, intended to disguise the falls.

all being spun!

they can't hide the situation for ever. It'll hit the fan, just have to give it some time.

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Julia Caesar has just reported on BBC News 24 that Land Registry figures show that the property market picked up in the last three months of 2005, based on number of completed sales. She repeated it in case anyone missed it and stressed that it was good news :rolleyes:.

What a tool. That's genuine spin-doctoring.

So what are the quarterly 2005 numbers which compound to 4.6%? Are the ones leaving the calculation over the next couple of quarters going to have any interesting effects?

In the US, prices are slowly falling but Year-on-Year comparisons still look quite good (8% or so). The Real Estate industry and captive media (which due to advertising is the vast majority) are therefore only now quoting the YOY numbers. The VI's have 2 big (linked) problems coming up, however;

1. There are 2 large steps in the 2005 nationwide median data, one in March/April and the other in June. Unless there is an equivalent rise in the same months this year, the YOY figures are suddenly going to show a big fall, quite possibly to beloew zero (especially in June).

2. There has been enormous VI play on the fact that (since the NAR started taking full statistics in 1968, so don't worry about the depression) the US nationwide median has never fallen Year-on-Year. So if that number does turn negative at some point in 2006, it will be front page/lead segment stuff in even the most one-eyed report.

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What a tool. That's genuine spin-doctoring.

So what are the quarterly 2005 numbers which compound to 4.6%? Are the ones leaving the calculation over the next couple of quarters going to have any interesting effects?

In the US, prices are slowly falling but Year-on-Year comparisons still look quite good (8% or so). The Real Estate industry and captive media (which due to advertising is the vast majority) are therefore only now quoting the YOY numbers. The VI's have 2 big (linked) problems coming up, however;

1. There are 2 large steps in the 2005 nationwide median data, one in March/April and the other in June. Unless there is an equivalent rise in the same months this year, the YOY figures are suddenly going to show a big fall, quite possibly to beloew zero (especially in June).

2. There has been enormous VI play on the fact that (since the NAR started taking full statistics in 1968, so don't worry about the depression) the US nationwide median has never fallen Year-on-Year. So if that number does turn negative at some point in 2006, it will be front page/lead segment stuff in even the most one-eyed report.

My goodness, I tell you, this site really has helped open my eyes to the barefaced spinning that goes on daily in this sorry, sorry country. Oh Maggie, what have we done to Britain? That the BBC should be stooping to this...so sad.

A few more years of this fake society we inhabit and I predict a whopper recession and massive social unrest: to be honest, I think it is what we need...to wake up from our trance and reclaim ourselves.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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