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Do you want the bad news, or the bad news ?


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Basically now.  It's not so easy to glean this information from listings.  

What we could do is generate a some price bands which would, area dependent, give an indication of the movement in property types more or less.

I'll add that for next time.

I will do bands along the lines of:

 

Sub 100K

100-200K

200-300k

300-500K

500-750K

750K- taking the pi-ss K

 

Just my penny's worth, is it possible to work on the Rightmove filters already there such as 'detached' 'semi' 'terrace' 'flats' etc? The average price of a price banding sort of doesn't reconcile in my head but I might be being dumb.

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I think the rises are just an estate agent psychology ploy: 

They know people expect a bigger discount, so they push up asking price to compensate before they start.  

That's all there is to it. 

That's right, they all jump on a zoom call each night and collude to do this...

..... in the real world the asking prices are set by the vendor and the purchase prices are set by the market. Estate agents that go in with the lowest value don't win. This is not the estate agent's fault since the 'honest' EA would soon have their business fail. In reality it's a pure reflection of human nature, the fear of selling your most valuable asset and you do not want to under sell it. 

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Every index is up. 

There's no point denying it.

Term Funding and low rates wil be used to support these prices come what may.

Then the £ will collapse.

Then all hell wlll break lose.

Either way the bubble is over, it's turning into a hyper inflationary event

Bubble is over? then hyperinflation. If we get hyperinflation the value of the pound plummets so nominally house prices go up.. don't hold cash, hold debt on a fixed rate if you truly believe that. 

Example, people in weimar republic were getting mugged not for their wages but for the wheelbarrow they were carrying their wages around in!

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But hang on a minute @TheCountOfNowhere, on Saturday you posted that Summer 2020 was definitely the peak having 'crunched the numbers' and spoken to lots of people in 'full blown panic mode now'. Then posted that you'd made 20k in a month on oil shares, and then got in a strop at many people laughing at you. Time to put a third it's all over now thread up on the site? Like a room of monkeys with typewriters who will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare...

The broken clock of nowhere will strike midnight at some point ;) 

I wish I could make 20k a month. Not sure either how the magic unfolded with all the oil majors actually falling in that period. 

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House prices will collapse, its nailed on

 

 

Real or nominal its going to happen. 

The only question you should be asking is how ####ed will i be personally when it happens

 

If its, just a bit, you're doing well. 

Why don't you set up your own country? You could get Musk's 5g satellite internet and do your £20k/month oil trading out of there. Set your own tax rates or some to arrangement with authorises. Winning. 

#CountTown #Count-ry

Then make your own currency

#CountPound

Then you could sell plots of land for a nominal 1 CountPound and have no planning. 

Just thinking that this has gone on far too long so you'll probably have to just fix it yourself?

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I think the rises are just an estate agent psychology ploy: 

They know people expect a bigger discount, so they push up asking price to compensate before they start.  

That's all there is to it. 

Could be a sign of desperation.  Pricing at any levels to get stuff on books.

But if no one is buying them the collapse comes regardless.

Prices are set at the margins.

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Could be a sign of desperation.  Pricing at any levels to get stuff on books.

But if no one is buying them the collapse comes regardless.

Prices are set at the margins.

Problem with pricing high is that you then end up with a bigger percentage discount - 15% eventually becomes 30%.

Then 30% off becomes the 'expected' reduction across the board

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Problem with pricing high is that you then end up with a bigger percentage discount - 15% eventually becomes 30%.

Then 30% off becomes the 'expected' reduction across the board

Not in the UK where we have financial wizards on channel 4 offering 10% above asking prices so you dont miss out on getting it....

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Do you have any stats on the mix of property types?

e.g. if the ratio of 4 bed houses to 2 bed flats in your sample has significantly increased over the same period then simply comparing prices could be a bit misleading.

This appears to be the case where I am. Far greater number of more expensive houses therefore, average asking price is higher. Appears to be a lot of older people trying to exit at the top of the market. Not sure whee they are planning to go if they do manage to sell. Maybe to the many retirement flats that are being built. Although these appear massively overpriced to me they could still buy one & trouser a £100k or so if they were to get their asking price.

 

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Do you have any stats on the mix of property types?

e.g. if the ratio of 4 bed houses to 2 bed flats in your sample has significantly increased over the same period then simply comparing prices could be a bit misleading.

I've added the price range info and I can see a couple of interesting things:

I looked at the bands:

 

<100K, 

100K to 200K

200k to 300

300k to 400

400k to 500

500k to 750

750 to £1m

£1m to £1.5

£1.5 to £2m

> 2M

It's a mixed back with less of everything for sale but the main things I could see are:

East Mids:

1% falls above £1m

Everything less than £500K up in price

Biggest rises below £100K

East England:

Rises above £1M

Falls below £500K

Biggest rises below 100K

London:

Prices up below £500K

Flat to £2M.

Down above £2M.

North East

Again, biggest rises below £100K

> 2M down 2%

1M to 2M up 2% and more listings

North West

Again, biggest rises below £100K

> 2M down 3.3%

Scotland

Again, biggest rises below £100K

-5% above £2M.

2% rise between 1M and 1.5M

 

South East

Again, biggest price rises below £100K except a 2% rise above £2M

 

South East

Prices below 100K fell 6% above £2M up 1%

Wales

1.26% rise below 100K.

-8% above £2M.

West Mids

0.74% rise below 100K

Yorkshire

0.55% rise below 100K

11% rise above £2M

 

It's odd that generally the top end is falling and the sub 100K prices are mostly all up by some way.

 

 

 

 

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 the sub 100K prices are mostly all up by some way.

 

 

 

 

I have a suspicion that right across the economy a lot of people have had some spare thousands of pounds over lockdown.

They have invested this, we know, in SIPPs and ISAs. In addition I would expect some of it to have found its way into low end property, either as OO or BTL. Although I don't know if other purchasing statistics bear that out.

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I have a suspicion that right across the economy a lot of people have had some spare thousands of pounds over lockdown.

They have invested this, we know, in SIPPs and ISAs. In addition I would expect some of it to have found its way into low end property, either as OO or BTL. Although I don't know if other purchasing statistics bear that out.

i dont know if the fractal is the same the whole country, but where iive in the Northern S/E , the monthly rental prices vs purchase price is way higher for smaller properties that larger ones. 2 x 200k 2 bed houses will yield £800 pcm each but 1 x £400k 4 bed house wont yield £1600 pcm rent. Unless made into a HMO. 

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I've added the price range info and I can see a couple of interesting things:

I looked at the bands:

 

<100K, 

100K to 200K

200k to 300

300k to 400

400k to 500

500k to 750

750 to £1m

£1m to £1.5

£1.5 to £2m

> 2M

It's a mixed back with less of everything for sale but the main things I could see are:

East Mids:

1% falls above £1m

Everything less than £500K up in price

Biggest rises below £100K

East England:

Rises above £1M

Falls below £500K

Biggest rises below 100K

London:

Prices up below £500K

Flat to £2M.

Down above £2M.

North East

Again, biggest rises below £100K

> 2M down 2%

1M to 2M up 2% and more listings

North West

Again, biggest rises below £100K

> 2M down 3.3%

Scotland

Again, biggest rises below £100K

-5% above £2M.

2% rise between 1M and 1.5M

 

South East

Again, biggest price rises below £100K except a 2% rise above £2M

 

South East

Prices below 100K fell 6% above £2M up 1%

Wales

1.26% rise below 100K.

-8% above £2M.

West Mids

0.74% rise below 100K

Yorkshire

0.55% rise below 100K

11% rise above £2M

 

It's odd that generally the top end is falling and the sub 100K prices are mostly all up by some way.

 

 

 

 

Ah sub 100k up? Cash purchase with a nice 50k bbl? 

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I have a suspicion that right across the economy a lot of people have had some spare thousands of pounds over lockdown.

They have invested this, we know, in SIPPs and ISAs. In addition I would expect some of it to have found its way into low end property, either as OO or BTL. Although I don't know if other purchasing statistics bear that out.

That's a fair point. Lot of peoples costs have plummeted and they've literally nothing to spend it on, why not price out a poor northerner with your magicked up cash hand outs. 

 

#### i hate the tories and bankers 

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That's a fair point. Lot of peoples costs have plummeted and they've literally nothing to spend it on, why not price out a poor northerner with your magicked up cash hand outs. 

 

#### i hate the tories and bankers 

If that's the case, then it's temporary.

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Scotland

Again, biggest rises below £100K

-5% above £2M.

2% rise between 1M and 1.5M

 

Could this be the reported flight out of the urban areas as working from home becomes the norm? Selling your 2-bed ex council flat in Peckham, buying a couple of acres in Perthshire?

Even at the lower end, asking prices are going up. £175k for a one-bed fixer-upper in Angus?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/86738248#/

Things are definitely moving around the Dundee area, but for the first time since joining HPC, I see a real crash on the horizon. I predicted that the Treasury would do all it could to see the actual price tags on the schedules remain steady over the last 10 years (I know, I know, "in real terms" etc. etc. but that doesn't cut it with Joe Schmo!) but can't see the government having the ability/credibility to print their way out of this one.... But I've been wrong before!

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