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House Price Crash Forum

Do you want the bad news, or the bad news ?


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Average asking and selling prices are very different. People are now being refused mortgages.

I did a quick check, 15 properties for sale on my street out of about 150. In 2020 4 were sold. One neighbor told me he wanted to sell at the top of the market and get out due to perceived high demand.

Every index is up. 

There's no point denying it.

Term Funding and low rates wil be used to support these prices come what may.

Then the £ will collapse.

Then all hell wlll break lose.

Either way the bubble is over, it's turning into a hyper inflationary event

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1 hour ago, shlomo said:

You are not putting EWS1 flats in the mix, the number of flat sales that have fallen through because people cannot get mortgages.

Some people have been forced to stop spending, so not buying that Costa or going on holiday, I Purchased a 16" MacBook pro  last month, Yesterday i purchased a Iphone 12 for the wife, i am flush with cash.

I saved £5K not going on holiday, and probably another £300 per month on sundries

My finances have never looked so healthy.

I am actually getting value out of Netflix, i used it so much now.

I guess it's true what the boomers were saying about lattes, smashed avocados and iphones then?

£5k holiday would be nice though. Will you roll up and go big next year?

Agree with the sentiment. My family have been lucky and have had a 'good' lockdown. Touchwood finances here are doing better than usual too. 

;) :D 

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I guess it's true what the boomers were saying about lattes, smashed avocados and iphones then?

£5k holiday would be nice though. Will you roll up and go big next year?

Agree with the sentiment. My family have been lucky and have had a 'good' lockdown. Touchwood finances here are doing better than usual too. 

;) :D 

£5K is for 4 people x 2 weeks during school holidays,

and I am still saving my normal number, not being able to spend has really changed everything.

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Although stuff like this must have an effect

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-74719677.html

 

7% yield, why would you sell at the moment :lol: 

I live in Northampton, so I'm fairly familiar with the market here. It might be interesting to note that there's a very similar block at the other end of that street. In it, there's a sub-£100k flat that's been listed since Feb (and listed multiple times over the past few years) that hasn't sold. Link. There's no parking, it's a noisy, busy street, especially on Saturday nights, and, well, it's Northampton 😄

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Do you have any stats on the mix of property types?

e.g. if the ratio of 4 bed houses to 2 bed flats in your sample has significantly increased over the same period then simply comparing prices could be a bit misleading.

Basically now.  It's not so easy to glean this information from listings.  

What we could do is generate a some price bands which would, area dependent, give an indication of the movement in property types more or less.

I'll add that for next time.

I will do bands along the lines of:

 

Sub 100K

100-200K

200-300k

300-500K

500-750K

750K- taking the pi-ss K

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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I live in Northampton, so I'm fairly familiar with the market here. It might be interesting to note that there's a very similar block at the other end of that street. In it, there's a sub-£100k flat that's been listed since Feb (and listed multiple times over the past few years) that hasn't sold. Link. There's no parking, it's a noisy, busy street, especially on Saturday nights, and, well, it's Northampton the Warsaw ghetto 😄

Corrected for accuracy

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But hang on a minute @TheCountOfNowhere, on Saturday you posted that Summer 2020 was definitely the peak having 'crunched the numbers' and spoken to lots of people in 'full blown panic mode now'. Then posted that you'd made 20k in a month on oil shares, and then got in a strop at many people laughing at you. Time to put a third it's all over now thread up on the site? Like a room of monkeys with typewriters who will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare...

 

 

Right Folks.

I told you prices would shoot up...Stamp Duty Cut, Lower IRs, Term Funding etc, it was only going to go one way this summer.

However, I've crunched some numbers, I've look at what's happening with Property Lion, I've seen the NW/Halifax/ONS numbers, I am speaking to people on full blown panic mode now.  

The market has stalled.  The prices are just so high the whole market is unstable. London has fallen.

Summer 2020 is the peak of the house price mania.  

It's over, house prices are going to crash.

Caveat Emptor.

P.S. Fingers crossed.

 

Edited by Twenty Something
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Basically now.  It's not so easy to glean this information from listings.  

What we could do is generate a some price bands which would, area dependent, give an indication of the movement in property types more or less.

I'll add that for next time.

I will do bands along the lines of:

 

Sub 100K

100-200K

200-300k

300-500K

500-750K

750K- taking the pi-ss K

 

Thanks very much again Count. Furlough extended, house prices increasing, but you say all hell will break loose. Bit exaggerated though, no?

 Can't rule anything out tbh . 

 

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Thanks very much again Count. Furlough extended, house prices increasing, but you say all hell will break loose. Bit exaggerated though, no?

 Can't rule anything out tbh . 

 

 

Broon was ready to put tanks on the street in 2007.

We've been in an unprecedented circumstance since 2007, the poor are getting poorer, the white Christians getting decapitated in their own country, corona-virus hits, Brexit coming.

Nothing lasts forever, including the £, the British Monarch, the UK etc etc.

Feels like we are near the end of something, not the beginning.

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Broon was ready to put tanks on the street in 2007.

We've been in an unprecedented circumstance since 2007, the poor are getting poorer, the white Christians getting decapitated in their own country, corona-virus hits, Brexit coming.

Nothing lasts forever, including the £, the British Monarch, the UK etc etc.

Feels like we are near the end of something, not the beginning.

The world is not going to end, i can see a 25% cut in the standard of living, which will be blamed on Coronovirus

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Broon was ready to put tanks on the street in 2007.

We've been in an unprecedented circumstance since 2007, the poor are getting poorer, the white Christians getting decapitated in their own country, corona-virus hits, Brexit coming.

Nothing lasts forever, including the £, the British Monarch, the UK etc etc.

Feels like we are near the end of something, not the beginning.

England's the least religious of English speaking countries.

Churches are full of non-white or non-English folks.  I've worked with many Saffers, Americans etc...and there's a lot of God talk from them. Nothing from the English lot mind you. Too busy for anything else. 

House prices decline delayed for even longer. Just gonna buy now if suitable place comes up.

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Cheers Count. Appreciate your work and your enthusiasm. 

And a special cheers to Sunak and the other turds currently in office.

I personally was looking to buy this winter as I am getting old but will not bother now. I'm presuming we will have a lull from mid December as buyers and sellers realise it is getting too late for the stamp duty saving. Why offer £500k for a gaff when it will end up costing £515k? Hopefully that will turn the indexes downwards...

The key for me will be when the absolute [email protected] say they are going to extend the stamp duty holiday.

I bet the unborn can't wait to go without to pay for our 'worth it' generation.

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Cheers Count. Appreciate your work and your enthusiasm. 

I bet the unborn can't wait to go without to pay for our 'worth it' generation.

No worries, someone has to wave the flags.  A couple of people in twitter this week have shown interest in what we say...they are shocked when the see the graph of earnings to prices.  You can clearly see the insanity of it...and what comes next.

Your unborn children only need to pay for it if YOU are daft enough to hang around here .

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Wales: -0.52% (HOORAY)

Listings: -3%

 

Thanks for your continued work on this Count.

I think the fall is starting in Wales, what with estate agents having to close down over this 17 day lockdown and the stamp duty holiday only applying up to £250k plus 2nd/BTL home owners not being allowed a stamp duty holiday at all.

I actually heard on radio Wales today, a financial advisor advise a member of the public to hold back on buying a home because prices were going to go down. Haven't heard them advise that before!

And on itv news they had an item saying prices had increased recently, but questioned are they likely to fall back soon?

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Thanks for your continued work on this Count.

I think the fall is starting in Wales, what with estate agents having to close down over this 17 day lockdown and the stamp duty holiday only applying up to £250k plus 2nd/BTL home owners not being allowed a stamp duty holiday at all.

I actually heard on radio Wales today, a financial advisor advise a member of the public to hold back on buying a home because prices were going to go down. Haven't heard them advise that before!

And on itv news they had an item saying prices had increased recently, but questioned are they likely to fall back soon?

Fall back tp what... Insanely over priced? 

Thanks for the anecdote tho. 

 

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Unfortunately that looks like the best we can hope for.

House prices lately seemed to defy all the odds, despite the countless job losses.

House prices will collapse, its nailed on

 

 

Real or nominal its going to happen. 

The only question you should be asking is how ####ed will i be personally when it happens

 

If its, just a bit, you're doing well. 

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Do you have any stats on the mix of property types?

e.g. if the ratio of 4 bed houses to 2 bed flats in your sample has significantly increased over the same period then simply comparing prices could be a bit misleading.

This is a good question (and I know Count has answered below). I'd broaden it to ask to what extent is it taken into account in the Nationwide & Halifax indices? I am assuming it must be but does anyone know?

As to the "mini-boom", my thoughts are whatever the indices are showing, it is misleading to extrapolate from the post-lockdown activity. It is a unique set of circumstances, and no one should assume it is a trend or means that prices will not, at some point, start to reflect the shrunken economy. 

Here are some:

- the last few months includes sales that could not take place during lockdown

- people who weren't planning to move now doing so because of the pandemic (and doing so to get more space so that is a particular type of property)

- tightened lending meaning the only people who could do the above have cash/loads of equity, well-paid & stable jobs, etc.

- demand brought forward from the future with people trying to beat the stamp duty deadline.

In other words, the composition of this set of buyers is not typical and almost certainly wealthier than you would expect when compared to a similar period of time.

The effect of tighter lending, job losses and reduced economic demand will eventually be felt and be shown in the various figures. It just might take longer than we and - I'll admit it - I expected.

 

 

Edited by Voice of Doom
Typo, again.
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