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Xi Says Economy Can Double as China Lays Out Ambitious Plans


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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-03/china-s-xi-says-economy-can-double-in-size-by-2035

Chinese President Xi Jinping said the economy can double in size by 2035 and the country can reach high-income status in the next five years as the Communist Party outlined ambitious plans for the nation’s future.

“It is entirely possible to reach the high-income country status by current standards by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and to double the total economic output or per capita income by 2035,” Xi said in a speech to the party’s Central Committee, according to state media Xinhua.
 
800x-1.jpgBased on a rough estimate, doubling economic output by 2035 would mean an annual growth rate of nearly 4.7%, said Hong Hao, chief strategist for Bocom International in Hong Kong. “This is ambitious, as the Chinese economy is already of significant size.
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 I can’t help but laughing. These folks can’t even produce enough food to feed themselves with their inefficient system and they think they can double the economy in 15 years. The world can’t take more of their stuff anymore so the make cheap stuffs and sell them isn’t working. 1.5 billion people and make them wealthier under the rule of the CCP? Good luck with that. 

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 I can’t help but laughing. These folks can’t even produce enough food to feed themselves with their inefficient system and they think they can double the economy in 15 years. The world can’t take more of their stuff anymore so the make cheap stuffs and sell them isn’t working. 1.5 billion people and make them wealthier under the rule of the CCP? Good luck with that. 

  Not just China's huge labour resource, industrial and manufacturing might, but land claims extending outside it's borders and semi-colonisation of parts of Africa,  even into space and backed up by a very strong military superpower makes them a force to be rekoned with.

 I do think there is a lot of corruption and hidden economic problems -look at the 'ghost cities' on youtube, huge towns of deserted and unfinished multi story buildings with crazy slack building controls - the product of a scam BTL craze and many citizen's pension funds.

 Deciding factor will be how soon the world can recover from covid, If China can get up for the count fast they are in a very strong position to exploit this -bear in mind 90% of world vaccine manufature is Chinese.  (I always saw this as a big potential national security weakness)  Potential bigger long term gains from any fast cov-xit might not be    just measured in GDP? 

 

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  Not just China's huge labour resource, industrial and manufacturing might, but land claims extending outside it's borders and semi-colonisation of parts of Africa,  even into space and backed up by a very strong military superpower makes them a force to be rekoned with.

 I do think there is a lot of corruption and hidden economic problems -look at the 'ghost cities' on youtube, huge towns of deserted and unfinished multi story buildings with crazy slack building controls - the product of a scam BTL craze and many citizen's pension funds.

 Deciding factor will be how soon the world can recover from covid, If China can get up for the count fast they are in a very strong position to exploit this -bear in mind 90% of world vaccine manufature is Chinese.  (I always saw this as a big potential national security weakness)  Potential bigger long term gains from any fast cov-xit might not be    just measured in GDP? 

 

I listened to a podcast where someone. Said those ghost cities were strategically built ahead of time, and have now been filled by young families etc who want to live near the economic hub these were build next to etc (Building ahead of time instead of waiting and having to build due to demand) 

Any links to these places, I want to see if this is true ?

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  Not just China's huge labour resource, industrial and manufacturing might, but land claims extending outside it's borders and semi-colonisation of parts of Africa,  even into space and backed up by a very strong military superpower makes them a force to be rekoned with.

 I do think there is a lot of corruption and hidden economic problems -look at the 'ghost cities' on youtube, huge towns of deserted and unfinished multi story buildings with crazy slack building controls - the product of a scam BTL craze and many citizen's pension funds.

 Deciding factor will be how soon the world can recover from covid, If China can get up for the count fast they are in a very strong position to exploit this -bear in mind 90% of world vaccine manufature is Chinese.  (I always saw this as a big potential national security weakness)  Potential bigger long term gains from any fast cov-xit might not be    just measured in GDP? 

 

Just a thought - is this like an army fighting yesterdays war? scaling up planet eating resources to produce goods when the vibe post covid will be fix/repair upcycle ? Pressure already to make electric appliances last longer legally etc

They will be a force to reckoned with of course - Their military is large but US estimates are it wouldn't perform with anything like the effectiveness of theirs and why would it ? a political control command system doesn't generally deliver the best initiatives  in battle nor does not having a coherent 200 years history of tactics and war - longer in our case

The Chinese are still not innovators could be their Achilles heel ultimately

 

Edited by GregBowman
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They will be a force to reckoned with of course - Their military is large but US estimates are it wouldn't perform with anything like the effectiveness of theirs and why would it ? a political control command system doesn't generally deliver the best initiatives  in battle nor does not having a coherent 200 years history of tactics and war - longer in our case

The Chinese are still not innovators could be their Achilles heel ultimately

 

 USA has many times been overconfident in it's military capability and badly underestimated their enemy before. 

Battle strategy and war games is no secret now,  a martial history is no gaurantee of future sucess -much of europe during ww2 for example. 

 China's military might dwarfs Russia, also I question actually who is ultimately in control of the China military and nuclear capabilities, not neccesarily the politicians.  

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On 04/11/2020 at 11:25, NoHPCinTheUK said:

 I can’t help but laughing. These folks can’t even produce enough food to feed themselves with their inefficient system and they think they can double the economy in 15 years. The world can’t take more of their stuff anymore so the make cheap stuffs and sell them isn’t working. 1.5 billion people and make them wealthier under the rule of the CCP? Good luck with that. 

Even if that were true what you are describing is the low hanging fruit of reform and progress. 

They already doubled it from 2010 to 2019..... China used more concrete in the last three years than America used in the entire 20th centaury. They're doing something right! Single party regimes get stuff done for better or worse. 

21st century is China's century. 

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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

Just a thought - is this like an army fighting yesterdays war? scaling up planet eating resources to produce goods when the vibe post covid will be fix/repair upcycle ? Pressure already to make electric appliances last longer legally etc

They will be a force to reckoned with of course - Their military is large but US estimates are it wouldn't perform with anything like the effectiveness of theirs and why would it ? a political control command system doesn't generally deliver the best initiatives  in battle nor does not having a coherent 200 years history of tactics and war - longer in our case

The Chinese are still not innovators could be their Achilles heel ultimately

 

The wWest's Achilles' is politics I'm afraid, and for now that's not a problem China would have. 

Most wars waged failed in the long run if political support dwindled. Korea, Vietnam, Gulf War 1.0 (too early to call the second one).

Falklands went well really because it was quick and both were fighting offshore albeit Argentina had a geo advantage but struggled to capitalise on that. 

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Just a thought - is this like an army fighting yesterdays war? scaling up planet eating resources to produce goods when the vibe post covid will be fix/repair upcycle ? Pressure already to make electric appliances last longer legally etc

They will be a force to reckoned with of course - Their military is large but US estimates are it wouldn't perform with anything like the effectiveness of theirs and why would it ? a political control command system doesn't generally deliver the best initiatives  in battle nor does not having a coherent 200 years history of tactics and war - longer in our case

The Chinese are still not innovators could be their Achilles heel ultimately

 

I do not agree, the USA has been fighting groups that are lower than third world, the USA has the most powerful military in the world BUT they might not perform very well when confronted by another super power.

At the Olympics, the difference between the winners and losers is milliseconds.   

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The wWest's Achilles' is politics I'm afraid, and for now that's not a problem China would have. 

Most wars waged failed in the long run if political support dwindled. Korea, Vietnam, Gulf War 1.0 (too early to call the second one).

Falklands went well really because it was quick and both were fighting offshore albeit Argentina had a geo advantage but struggled to capitalise on that. 

 Or changing public opinion that forms political direction: wartime public support often wanes with too many body bags, but not such a problem for any totalitarian state enemy. 

 If the Falklands had been hugely costly, went on for years and/or escalated public opinion would have changed and we would probably have made an agreement with them.

( It is possible they were offered a hong kong style delayed handover in secret negotiations? )   

 Maybe still some unfinished business there: 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1294539/Falkland-islands-news-argentina-uk-Falklands-sovereignty-war

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Even if that were true what you are describing is the low hanging fruit of reform and progress. 

They already doubled it from 2010 to 2019..... China used more concrete in the last three years than America used in the entire 20th centaury. They're doing something right! Single party regimes get stuff done for better or worse. 

21st century is China's century. 

Think it is their century but I suspect a pyrrhic victory all the same.  I wouldn't use concrete as my defining measure of success ;) 

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Just a thought - is this like an army fighting yesterdays war? scaling up planet eating resources to produce goods when the vibe post covid will be fix/repair upcycle ? Pressure already to make electric appliances last longer legally etc

They will be a force to reckoned with of course - Their military is large but US estimates are it wouldn't perform with anything like the effectiveness of theirs and why would it ? a political control command system doesn't generally deliver the best initiatives  in battle nor does not having a coherent 200 years history of tactics and war - longer in our case

The Chinese are still not innovators could be their Achilles heel ultimately

 

Not sure about that. The whole brouhaha about Huawei is based on the fact that everyone uses their tech because they have no alternatives (the competitors are not as advanced). Also, the Chinese tech companies (Tencent etc) are arguably as advanced in innovation terms as Google etc

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Not sure about that. The whole brouhaha about Huawei is based on the fact that everyone uses their tech because they have no alternatives (the competitors are not as advanced). Also, the Chinese tech companies (Tencent etc) are arguably as advanced in innovation terms as Google etc

Not true, Huawei offers the cheapest price about 60% cheaper than competitors, Huawei will also offer finance terms to third world countries like pay us in 5 years which Nokia and Erikson cannot match they want payment up front.

The Chinese are either very bad business people or they are playing a different  game completely.

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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

Think it is their century but I suspect a pyrrhic victory all the same.  I wouldn't use concrete as my defining measure of success ;) 

Possibly but not more than the cost of other world number one positions in the past. Britain's Empire didn't come for Free and neither did the US dominance in 20th century. 

Concrete is a leading KPI for development, but the point was at the other poster's flippant dismissal of China's ability. Quite clearly they can grow at an astonishing rate. 

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2 hours ago, Megadebt said:

 Or changing public opinion that forms political direction: wartime public support often wanes with too many body bags, but not such a problem for any totalitarian state enemy. 

 If the Falklands had been hugely costly, went on for years and/or escalated public opinion would have changed and we would probably have made an agreement with them.

( It is possible they were offered a hong kong style delayed handover in secret negotiations? )   

 Maybe still some unfinished business there: 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1294539/Falkland-islands-news-argentina-uk-Falklands-sovereignty-war

Really the same reason that underpinned the first invasion is rearing its ugly head again... blind nationalism and deflection. Argentina isn't in a great place and the Malvinas drum get banged rom time to time to build up the blind patriot vote. 

If they try it again all I can say is good luck! There's a garrison stationed there now and rumours of other hard sailing around not so far away. 

We were jolly nice about things last time around too. This time we've got a could of nice aircraft carriers that could do with some proper trials and why stop with the Falklands. 

First time the burglar comes you might give them a bloody nose. If they're dumb enough to come back you fix it so they can't come back. 

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Really the same reason that underpinned the first invasion is rearing its ugly head again... blind nationalism and deflection. Argentina isn't in a great place and the Malvinas drum get banged rom time to time to build up the blind patriot vote. 

If they try it again all I can say is good luck! There's a garrison stationed there now and rumours of other hard sailing around not so far away. 

We were jolly nice about things last time around too. This time we've got a could of nice aircraft carriers that could do with some proper trials and why stop with the Falklands. 

First time the burglar comes you might give them a bloody nose. If they're dumb enough to come back you fix it so they can't come back. 

Thank god the Falklands has incredible resources, and is self paying, it would be a real shame if we were spending billions every year to defend some sheep.

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Not true, Huawei offers the cheapest price about 60% cheaper than competitors, Huawei will also offer finance terms to third world countries like pay us in 5 years which Nokia and Erikson cannot match they want payment up front.

The Chinese are either very bad business people or they are playing a different  game completely.

It's not just about price, see eg 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/04/10/us-spat-with-huawei-explained/

"Despite an early reputation for cheap knockoff hardware, Huawei today is recognized for low prices, reliable equipment and engaging customer service, analysts say. As Huawei has invested in its own research and development, even Western telecom companies acknowledge that Huawei’s products are as good as — if not better than — competing equipment from Nokia or Ericsson."

 

I think underestimating the Chinese is a big mistake.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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